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It's Official: Hard, Snowy Winter to Come

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I would really caution about any snow forecast in the UK 10 days ahead... that's much too far in advance to have confidence in anything that specific.

@Bigtipper, what was the source for the December 12th forecast, and if it's a random website (as opposed to weather models), where do they in turn get their information from?

From where I'm looking (GFS), there is some agreement on a reasonably cold spell - i.e. not very, very cold - next week, but no particular signal for snow on a particular day (which isn't surprising given the timescale). The operational run does go very cold around the 12th, but it's an outlier and all the other runs are warmer.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/ben_ledi

@denfinella, mathematically long term weather forecasting is unreliable and not precise. However that is precisely what climate change forecasters are doing. They predict trends based on past history, and modelling the future. The massive increase in computing power makes weather forecasting better, but it can make mistakes

I watch this website, and whilst the long term forecast is less reliable, it is usually in the right ballpark.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Trends, yes, but it was really the coupling of a specific date quite far in the future with specific weather which I was cautioning against. Climate change forecasters can predict a warming trend, but they can't say whether June 1st, 2022 will be cool or warm.

I'd also suggest that a max temperature of -1C on 12th December at the top of Ben Ledi isn't "very, very cold" - I would hazard a guess that it's about average for the time of year? Then there was the "significant snow" comment (not by you), which I do think is much too early to predict.

The trend does indeed seem to be for lower temperatures from this week to next. But that's just as much because of the mild start (i.e. even just the seasonal average next week would be colder than midweek this week), and I don't see "very, very cold" anywhere yet. I'm also not sure what model the site you linked uses. If, for example, it's derived from the GFS operational run, it will be forecasting temperatures which are lower than all the other GFS runs.

Having said all that... let it snow, and I hope you are correct! Very Happy
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You must have been looking at the wrong day @denfinella, the maximum on 12th December is -6C and the minimum is -10C. Heavy snow is expected on 11th December on Ben Ledi.

Very Happy
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Bigtipper, it's changed now! Laughing
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
@denfinella, O ye of little faith! That indisputable oracle of all things weather related the Daily Express wink is warning of "Britain COVERED by 17 INCHES in election blizzard" Laughing

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1212457/uk-snow-forecast-charts-maps-weather-latest-met-office-weather-warnings-general-election
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Well then. That's me told! Laughing
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Bigtipper wrote:
Bigtipper wrote:
Since the OP, the October actuals are in. The UK has experienced on average 0.5 degrees centigrade below the 1981-2010 average mean temperature. Not particularly significant in itself, although much of that was at the end of October when it went sub zero.

November actuals look like they will be closer to 1 to 2 degrees below the 1981-2010 average, given the 15 day sub zero forecast for the first half of November.

However, more significantly Scottish averages look lower than the UK averages compared to 1981-2010 average. (down 0.8 C for October and looking like it is going to be very cold 2 weeks in Scottish ski resorts, certainly cold enough for outside snow making rather than using the fridges)

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-anomaly-graphs


Mean temperature for November -1.4 degrees C below 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Unfortunately, precipitation was 62% of 1981-2010 average for Scotland. Meaning it was very cold in November, but not a lot of natural snowfall. However, conditions have been better than normal for snowmaking both in a fridge and outside snow making. Therefore the beginner pistes will be nearly there.

It's forecast to get very very cold by December 12th!! BRRR


Mean temperature for December 1.3 degrees C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Plenty of precipitation, but sadly not enough as snow in December.

I can take the despair. It's the hope I can't stand!
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Mean temperature for January 2020 2.1 degrees C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Plenty of precipitation, but not as snow in January due to the above average temperatures. Sunshine was dreadful in January 2020 in Scotland. It can only get better, luckily the forecast is for snow and cold temperatures for the first half of February. Maybe, just maybe, but don't hope..... rolling eyes
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Looks like it is going to be very busy weekend 29/2, 1/3. This is a leap year Saturday, with forecast clear skies, low wind, very cold, and lots of snow falling prior to this weekend.

You might need to camp in the car park overnight to get a parking space! Laughing
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Mean temperature for February 2020 0.4 degrees C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 213% of the normal precipitation in Scotland compared to 1981-2010 average in February. It did fall as snow in ski resorts in Scotland, and the result is all resorts are open and more snow is forecast for the rest of March. The car park in Glencoe was almost completely full by lunchtime on 5/3/20. The snow pack is deep and should last most of March at least!



Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Mean temperature for March 2020 0.0 degrees above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 88% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 110% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Pretty much an average March in 2020 in Scotland compared to those 30 years averages.

Would have been a great month for skiing, if the resorts were not closed because of CV.

https://waqi.info/#/c/6.344/2.988/2z

This website maps all the world pollution and displays it in real time. You can zoom in to countries, and specific areas and check out the pollution over the last year and how it has changed since lockdown. Fascinating!

The nearest testing station to me (20 miles away) is good for all recorded levels of air pollution. It is good pretty much all the time over the last year. The location is one of the busiest roundabouts in a 50 mile radius from me. It does not measure pollen levels though, which do get high in spring and summer time (not to mention midgies)
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Bigtipper wrote:
Mean temperature for March 2020 0.0 degrees above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 88% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 110% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. Pretty much an average March in 2020 in Scotland compared to those 30 years averages.

Would have been a great month for skiing, if the resorts were not closed because of CV.

https://waqi.info/#/c/6.344/2.988/2z

This website maps all the world pollution and displays it in real time. You can zoom in to countries, and specific areas and check out the pollution over the last year and how it has changed since lockdown. Fascinating!

The nearest testing station to me (20 miles away) is good for all recorded levels of air pollution. It is good pretty much all the time over the last year. The location is one of the busiest roundabouts in a 50 mile radius from me. It does not measure pollen levels though, which do get high in spring and summer time (not to mention midgies)


Resorts went through until 22 March

Great skiing was had in March.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Mean temperature for April 2020 0.9C above 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 31% of precipitation compared to 1981-2010 average in Scotland. 151% of sunshine duration compared to 1981-2020 average in Scotland. An unusually dry sunny April in Scotland this year compared to those 30 years averages for April.

Could have been some sunbathing on this piste this April! Laughing

Instead, we have all been stuck at home watering the plants.
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