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It's Official: Hard, Snowy Winter to Come

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I would really caution about any snow forecast in the UK 10 days ahead... that's much too far in advance to have confidence in anything that specific.

@Bigtipper, what was the source for the December 12th forecast, and if it's a random website (as opposed to weather models), where do they in turn get their information from?

From where I'm looking (GFS), there is some agreement on a reasonably cold spell - i.e. not very, very cold - next week, but no particular signal for snow on a particular day (which isn't surprising given the timescale). The operational run does go very cold around the 12th, but it's an outlier and all the other runs are warmer.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/ben_ledi

@denfinella, mathematically long term weather forecasting is unreliable and not precise. However that is precisely what climate change forecasters are doing. They predict trends based on past history, and modelling the future. The massive increase in computing power makes weather forecasting better, but it can make mistakes

I watch this website, and whilst the long term forecast is less reliable, it is usually in the right ballpark.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Trends, yes, but it was really the coupling of a specific date quite far in the future with specific weather which I was cautioning against. Climate change forecasters can predict a warming trend, but they can't say whether June 1st, 2022 will be cool or warm.

I'd also suggest that a max temperature of -1C on 12th December at the top of Ben Ledi isn't "very, very cold" - I would hazard a guess that it's about average for the time of year? Then there was the "significant snow" comment (not by you), which I do think is much too early to predict.

The trend does indeed seem to be for lower temperatures from this week to next. But that's just as much because of the mild start (i.e. even just the seasonal average next week would be colder than midweek this week), and I don't see "very, very cold" anywhere yet. I'm also not sure what model the site you linked uses. If, for example, it's derived from the GFS operational run, it will be forecasting temperatures which are lower than all the other GFS runs.

Having said all that... let it snow, and I hope you are correct! Very Happy
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You must have been looking at the wrong day @denfinella, the maximum on 12th December is -6C and the minimum is -10C. Heavy snow is expected on 11th December on Ben Ledi.

Very Happy
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@Bigtipper, it's changed now! Laughing
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
@denfinella, O ye of little faith! That indisputable oracle of all things weather related the Daily Express wink is warning of "Britain COVERED by 17 INCHES in election blizzard" Laughing

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1212457/uk-snow-forecast-charts-maps-weather-latest-met-office-weather-warnings-general-election
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Well then. That's me told! Laughing
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