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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Amazing photo from Stelvio on Facebook yesterday:

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@clarky999, cracking pic! are they still open?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@kitenski, haha, literally cracking wink

Looks like they're open 'til midday: http://www.passostelvio.eu/en/home-eng/
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That's brutal.

Looks like Mick Jagger's face.
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Whitegold wrote:
Australia seeing good snowfall at the moment.

Perisher getting record snow.

We have seen big snow years for three years in a row here in Australia.
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After a fine morning some pretty heavy rain amongst thunderstorms in parts of Austria today particularly Obersteiermark and Murtal.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
One week till Autumn...


http://youtube.com/v/p_u0gn1I8xQ
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Last few GFS op runs have been suggesting possibility of snow line dropping to around 2000m middle of next week. Wouldn’t last obviously, but might bring some fresh snow to the glaciers...
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NAO working itself up towards something slightly positive after extended negative spell...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

And some Matt Hugo thoughts on NAO...

“What would be impressive is if, overall, the NAO this winter was -ve. This run through the late spring and summer period has just suddenly bucked the trend of late, it's unlikely to keep going, but if say after a more +ve NAO in autumn it switched again, then that wowzers”

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/1166050834280525825?s=21

Keep in mind a strongly -NAO can bring real cold weather to the UK and Northern Europe, but can also cut the snow off from the Alps.
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One of the nice features on meteologix is that we can see ECM freeze level forecasts, so here is their +10 day view on Europe, Sunday 8th Sep (too far to be reliable), but shows the cold air coming down from N / NE.
Temperature rollercoaster next week, with sudden plunge mon-tues, a sharp recovery and second plunge end of the week seen across the main models and ensembles.
At that range I think all we can say is that there is potential for some more northerly cold air to hit the alps next weekend, but no idea where exactly....could shift 1000 miles east, or disappear completely.

xx-model-en-339-0-modez-2019083000-216-1-304

ECM 10 day accumulated precipitation.
xx-model-en-339-0-modez-2019083000-234-1-157

Here's the GFS view on FL's for Avoriaz over the same period. Note the Op (black) is a cold outlier for next weekend (7-9th), so in my view the average (red) is a better guide at that range. The Op is likely to flip above and below the average over the next few days. Any sustained move by the Op (and control - blue) over several runs / days though would be more revealing.

graphe-ens4

And just for fun, here's GFS 06z Op snowfall next weekend......pretty sure that's not going to happen, but nice to see that charts lighting up this early.
240-24

It's also the beginning of hurricane season, with Dorian currently making the headlines as it points towards florida...adding to the modelling noise across the atlantic in the weeks to come.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Fri 30-08-19 13:19; edited 1 time in total
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@polo, There might be a bit of snow on the glaciers I guess. There was some the other week. Otherwise, we're getting a cycle of hot days and wet* days.

*Innsbruck rain. That is, all the rain, at the same time Shocked
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I am no environ-mentalist but it is staggering just how much snow has disappeared from Stubai Glacier resort this summer. They have none, after having 660cm in June. Fingers crossed for some big autumnal storms.
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@Snowsartre, judging by pictures on Instagram the Hintertux is in the same state.
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You know it makes sense.
@Bennyboy1, Shocked
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Unless there has been fresh snow (uncommon though not unheard of in the height if summer) the Austrian glaciers normally look pretty grey and grim at the end of August. That said the hot summer has certainly eroded all the spring snow.

Last hot weekend of summer in Austria. In fact less than 12 hours of summer left!

After a couple of spells of much cooler weather this week, ECM produces more cold weather for the time of year at the start of the following week.



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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Snowsartre, I have been in the Ziller for the past week. Locals saying August was colder and wetter than normal. May was cold with late snow. But June and July was very hot. I am sure there are stats to prove/disprove. But like you I am surprised how much melt there has been.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Hello to all,
Have a look at my first seasonal forecast for Winter 2019-20
https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/08/31/early-september-seasonal-2019-20-winter-preliminary-outlook/

Signs are looking like some tendency towards a +NAO in my very first initial look at the winter forecast.
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Bennyboy1 wrote:
@Snowsartre, I have been in the Ziller for the past week. Locals saying August was colder and wetter than normal. May was cold with late snow. But June and July was very hot. I am sure there are stats to prove/disprove. But like you I am surprised how much melt there has been.


It has been the same cycle every year since the 1990s, when global boiling took off.

Roasting summers are killing all glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic.

Even after a big winter, the boiling summers just melt away the snow and ice.
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Even with a few warm days cropping up the overall trend for first 10 days of autumn is below average.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

ZAMG still suggesting a stronger likelihood for above average September (and indeed Autumn).

https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/wetter/produkte-und-services/saisonprognose

Though (as they indicate) it’ll need a warm remainder of September to counteract what looks like a cool start.

Meanwhile some Sunday Falco.


http://youtube.com/v/cyrdPtEHKzE
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Sudden intensification of Dorian to one of the strongest hurriances ever recorded, sub 915mb

NOAA
1245pm Update: Hurricane #Dorian has made landfall at Elbow Cay, Abacos. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 185 mph with gusts over 220 mph.

Screenshot-2019-09-01-at-21-16-25

...and it's already on Wikipedia as the joint highest ever @185mph tied with Labor Day 1935
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records
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Dorian slicing its way across Grand Bahama.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1168398218301849600?s=21

View of inside of hurricane eye wall from NOAA aircraft which flew through.



https://twitter.com/noaa_hurrhunter/status/1168365343103959040?s=21

And Dorian from the ISS.


http://youtube.com/v/m4F6sG7yRdw
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Definitely feeling pretty autumnall here now! Been snowing at Pitztal this morning, and Bergfex is suggesting around 20cms for Stubai this week.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@clarky999, quite a shift from summer to autumn! It’s been really grim out east.

More snow to come up high for the end of the week.

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Still looking good for snowfall beneath 2000m Thursday through to Monday currently looking focussed on eastern Alps.

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https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/alpen-schnee-bis-auf-unter-2000-meter-201909034617585

Very Happy
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@clarky999, quite a shift from summer to autumn!



Definitely chill in air this morning at home too, made me think of this thread. I love those first nights when winter is approaching.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Lot's of signals over the last 3-4 days for high pressure to make a comeback next week over France / UK. Any ridges towards Iceland getting flattened by stronger westerlies, and tropical storm remnants joining the jet stream.

Even if we do see the azores high become more amplified, it's too early to expect much troughing over the central alps, (eastern end being favoured of course as it's further from the azores). Hopefully will see the HP blob move further out into the atlantic closer to Nov/Dec to allow more N/NW flow to reach western end. On the other hand if Azores high moves too far west, we get troughing in the bay of biscay and a warm SW flow into the alps. So it's a fine line even under -NAO. I think Nov-mid Dec 2017 was the best example of a good -NAO (for northern alps) in the last 5 years or so.

As for this weekend (or even thurs-mon), 2500m looks to be the average FL across the northern alps now, only dropping to low 2000's briefly on sunday 8th. And maybe again on Tues 10th. So usual performance from the models, GFS/FV3 Op run moves around a lot and over estimates precipitation (being same data that snow-forecast use). UKMO/ECM Ops steadier, more reliable.

Avoriaz and Innsbruck below, can see it's wetter in the east, and also looking cooler week 2 according to mean FL (plus Op and control in this instance)

graphe-ens4-1
graphe-ens4
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much



Palinkopf

First properly cold weather of autumn making itself felt over the next few days.

Snowline briefly down to 1800m on Swiss Austrian border overnight.

clarky999 Has some nice shots of Stubai glacier here.

https://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=148503&highlight=

Hintertux should see the snowline below 2000m at times from tomorrow through Monday with 30-40cm of snowfall at the top.

And some reports suggesting a the snowline could drop to 1500m.

https://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Temperatursturz-Jetzt-kommt-Schnee/396030133

Still early autumn mind you so more warm weather to come, but enough to start to make me think about the glaciers anyway.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Generally cooler than average temperatures for much of the next week over the Alps, warming up at the end of next week and into the weekend before both GFS and ECM plunge us into the cold again (obviously time for that to change, but building up some consistency).

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„Am Wochenende könnte es turbulent werden:
Von Sonntag auf Montag ist unter Umständen mit Neuschnee bis in einige höher gelegene Täler zu rechnen.
Während sich die Schneefallgrenze am Freitag und Samstag meist zwischen 2200 und 2600 m bewegt, bringt ein erneuter Tiefdruckvorstoß am Sonntag noch kältere Luftmassen mit sich. In Kombination mit gebietsweise intensiven Niederschlägen ist ein vorübergehendes Absinken der Schneefallgrenze bis in Mittelgebirgslagen oder sogar bis in Täler um 1000 m möglich. Der Schwerpunkt der Schneefälle ist derzeit noch nicht exakt festzumachen, liegt aber voraussichtlich von den Tuxer / Zillertaler Alpen über die Hohen bis in die Niederen Tauern. Hier können unterhalb der Waldgrenze 20 bis 30 cm Neuschnee und lokal auch mehr zusammenkommen, in Hochlagen auch bis zu einem dreiviertel Meter. Am Montag klingen die Niederschläge wieder ab.“

ZAMG suggesting cold air on Sunday combined with heavy rain could bring the snow line briefly down to 1000m in places in the Austrian Alps. Possibly 20-30cms of snow falling beneath the treeline and up to 75cm at altitude. Snowfall likely focussed around Tux/Zillertal.
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http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/first-significant-snowfall-of-the-season-for-the-alps-coming-this-weekend-sept-6-8th/
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Nice weather for hiking / paddling in the west, very warm in the sun today, lakes are still swimmable and should be some lovely snowy background scenery next week.
Local lads this morning soaking it all up.

IMG-7885-2

And here's the 8-10 day mean anomaly charts, shows the azores high (middle right red blob) over western europe.

test8
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Interesting chart on September snowfall in Denver, Colorado, for the past 138 years.

No major Sep snowfall this century, due to global warming.

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Paznauner Taja first thing.



Paznauner Taja a couple of hours later.
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The web cams at Solden are a joy to see. Madeye-Smiley
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@nozawaonsen, nice!!

Just drove back from Garmisch (good kayaking weather haha) and it was 3°C and snowing to the bottom station at Seefeld. All the mountains are looking pretty white!

Other friends were kayaking *in* the snow in Ötztal (around Vent).
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Faxai crashing into Tokyo...

https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1170737349510270976?s=21
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Faxai crashing into Tokyo...

https://twitter.com/metofficestorms/status/1170737349510270976?s=21


I got caught Sat in Typhoon Lingling in South Korea.

Got kinda blowy for a few hours.

Taken 2 days to get a flight out.

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https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/fotos-aus-den-alpen-schnee-bis-weit-herunter-201909085007722

Pictures and videos of a snowy Tirol. It seems odd that it was only a couple of weeks back I was driving over the Brenner on the way back from a very hot Tuscany.
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@munich_irish, yup. It’s been shrouded in cloud most of the day, but in the gaps I could see snow down to about 1900m. Still got my shorts on, so that’s a bit surreal Confused
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