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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Messaged a friend I knew who had been at altitude these last few days around La Meije about that glacier melt image as to what exactly it was.

The snow is melting very fast with these temperatures and no overnight freeze. The ice is appearing and in a couple of days it will be all blue ice sadly......

Storms and heavy rain early evening, but a tad clearer at 22:30, more of the same tomorrow mid to late afternoon, it's Summer in the Alps !!
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Recent vid from the L2A glacier in France.

And a cool mountainbike stack.


http://youtube.com/v/B7qFZboIX5E
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Another memorable stormy evening yesterday, and the rain at times was a massive deluge, and then would suddenly stop and then ten mins later start up again was most bizarre and all accompanied by thunder and some startling "cracks" and lightning.

I use the WetterOnline Weather and Radar App and really interesting to see how the storms are building during the day and the amount of lightning activity etc and where they are the most intense.

I did think we had it not too bad looking at the radar and this morning's Le Dauphine confirms that
https://www.ledauphine.com/actualite/2019/07/01/risque-d-orages-l-ain-l-isere-la-savoie-et-la-haute-savoie-places-en-vigilance-orange

And then what is always, to me at least amazing is that there is not one cloud in the sky this morning!


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Tue 2-07-19 11:09; edited 1 time in total
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Quite a lot of flash floods and mud slides round Salzburg as a result of the storms.
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Get those snow making reservoirs full!
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The previous page I mentioned how last week, the valley behind us was hit with flash floods and landslides, same again happened last evening!

https://www.ledauphine.com/hautes-alpes/2019/07/02/nevache-val-des-pres-la-vallee-de-la-claree-encore-coupee-par-des-coulees-de-boue

With the road cut off in two places and "C’est la deuxième fois en moins d'une semaine que la vallée de la Clarée est ainsi coupée par des glissements de terrain"

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
June 2019 was the world's hottest June ever recorded.

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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Whitegold, oh you read the Daily Mail, now I get it, you probably take the Daily Express weather as gospel too Laughing

Last evening was yet more stimulating weather to experience.

This time around with the thunder, lightning and torrential rain, temps dropped fast and indeed rain turned to hail.

One lightning strike was incredibly close, and helped me decide not to go out to watch the "soccer".

Once again this morning hardly a cloud in the sky, the forecast is for clouds to build up mid morning and more storms.

They've closed the tough Col du Granon this morning, in that it's only open to cyclists and pedestrians, just hope there's not too much gravel on the road from the rain.

I've altered the position of the cam so that now there's more skyline in the image, that's Club Med in the middle of the picture.



https://www.stylealtitude.com/serrechevalierweathercam.html
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Relatively chilly across the alps this evening. AO and NAO still negative 3 months in, and while June was above average temp, it was only a brief blast of suffocating heat towards the end in the NW alps. The rest has been very pleasant.
All those hyped 'records' are only based on recent history, since official measurements began 100-150 years ago. And there is evidence out there that places like France were hotter before, hitting 45-50c in 1773, 1906, 1930.

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/06/50c-in-france/

Then if you go back further (100's of millions of years)...it was a lot hotter and a lot colder at times.
Interesting blog post below covering 4.5bn years of earths temperature swings, with a scary little vid at the end showing how rapid rate of change is this century.

https://muchadoaboutclimate.wordpress.com/2013/08/03/4-5-billion-years-of-the-earths-temperature/

Back to present, the Apr-Jun temp anomaly (under the -AO phase) shows the extreme heat is towards the arctic, while west and southern europe have been on the cooler side of the jet, and overall have had average temps (vs 1981-2010).

o-Jvob-RUAm-Q

These average to cooler temps in parts of the alps look like continuing into mid July.
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You can see that cooler trend over next 10 days here (kicking in from Sunday)

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4
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@nozawaonsen, well at least better temps for cycling, that said yesterday morning was 11 degrees and stayed under 20 all the way up and over the Izoard, though again did quickly ramp up and by Noon back in Briancon was nigh on 30.

Tomorrow it's the Marmotte and from the looks of things will be a hot one in the Maurienne Valley for the long nigh on 30km and 2,000m+ climb up to the Galibier, that's after they've climbed the Col du Glandon and then after they descend down from Galibier to the Lautaret and back to Bourg, there's the little matter of the final climb up to Alpe d'Huez!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Hi, for those going to Chile - here a last post on my blog - there have been seen snow cracks pretty early on (on the first month of the ski season) on the Central Chilean Andes: https://www.the-ski-guru.com/2019/07/07/snow-cracks-central-zone-chile-overlooked/#more-79459 - just be careful if going there!
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Down to 1°C this morning here in Faskrudsfjordur, and same forecast for tomorrow.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Mammoth, Cali, still going strong.

Endless Winter.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Would it be same as I understand Summer skiing in Alps is, ie no really good skiing after noon?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Best to shred in the morning, golf in the afternoon, and mountainbike in the evening.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Generally cooler than average temperatures stretching out another week or so. Warming up again after that. Snow showers at top of Hintertux over next few days.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looks like 10-15cm of fresh snow overnight and tomorrow for Hintertux down to 2400m.
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Stormy yesterday. According to Skywarn Austria 191,062 Blitzentladungen (lightning discharges) in Central Europe.

Here’s how you can follow the lightning...

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=10


http://youtube.com/v/LfmrHTdXgK4
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WE HAVE SNOW !!

Definite dusting above circa 2,700m down into the Queyras visible when clouds come and go from Briancon.

Yesterday knowing what the forecast had in store for today we were talking how about 4 or 5 yrs ago we were hiking in the middle of July and were caught in a snowstorm, and then maybe a year later/earlier (?) there was around 10cms atop the Galibier a week before the TDF was due.
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This month is currently on track to be the world's hottest July in recorded history.

Europe due another heatwave next week.

Arctic is experiencing record warmth and ice-loss.

Dent du Geant in France has a new lake of water at 3400m / 11,000ft.



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Yep another hot spell coming up in Europe, and the US.
Though the chart above for Fri 26 Jul is looking a lot cooler now for that weekend. Latest ECM and GFS Op temp anomalies below....8-9 days away a lot can still change, but it could be another short hot spell around 22-25th, then back below average again for the last week of July. The only caveat being that models are often poor at forecasting a scandi high, with low pressure from the west passing underneath. I hope it builds support, but in most cases this pattern gets weakened down as we get nearer (ie less low pressure passing under the high).

2019-07-17-19-57-20
ECM100-240
gfs-15-252

In other news the longest -NAO spell on record looks like coming to an end next week
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

And ENSO looks like flipping from El Nino state to neutral, partly due to the deep cold anomalies below the surface
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.doc
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Does this mean there will be snow for Solden week commencing 25/1/20?
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scotspikey wrote:
Does this mean there will be snow for Solden week commencing 25/1/20?


ah no, sadly the snow will be the week after Sad
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scotspikey wrote:
Does this mean there will be snow for Solden week commencing 25/1/20?


The longterm forecast indicates light snowfall on 1/23/20.
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Arctic hit a record high of 70f this week.

Alaska topped 90f a couple weeks ago.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-northernmost-settlement-on-earth-cracked-70-degrees-1836527516
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Interesting to see how climate change is leading to increased precipitation and heavy downpours.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/prepare-more-downpours-heavy-rain-has-increased-across-most-united-0
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen wrote:
Interesting to see how climate change is leading to increased precipitation and heavy downpours.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/prepare-more-downpours-heavy-rain-has-increased-across-most-united-0

Which also means that heavier snowfall events are likely in the future, but less of them. And higher snow levels.
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You know it makes sense.
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Interesting to see how climate change is leading to increased precipitation and heavy downpours.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/prepare-more-downpours-heavy-rain-has-increased-across-most-united-0

Which also means that heavier snowfall events are likely in the future, but less of them. And higher snow levels.


The trend, in recent decades, for the mountains, is for less snow.

Snowfall across the European Alps has declined 10-30% on average since the 1980s.

High resorts, like Val Despair, used to get 500-800cm a season, and now typically get 400-700cm.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Definitely pretty hot and sunny in Salzburg today. Damn fine beer drinking weather and the views are outstanding.

But only two months now till the autumn solstice...
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Iceland has started erecting memorials to melted and lost glaciers.

https://www.sciencealert.com/iceland-has-unveiled-a-memorial-to-the-first-glacier-lost-to-climate-change
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Good looking charts this weekend, if only it was winter

Screenshot-2019-07-24-at-21-13-17

graphe-ens3
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Below average temps across Swiss and French alps on average now into early August. Cool to see the models pick this up almost 2 weeks in advance. Might be related to trade winds in the pacific, dictating a less influential long wave over europe and the westward retrogression of northern blocking, or some other fancy sounding teleconnection stuff. I'm just glad it's cooling down.

temp4

AO/NAO plunging negative again after a tiny tick into positive territory recently...so any below avg temps we get are at the expense of heat anomalies in the arctic.....and this is in line with the theory that solar minimum is associated with -AO etc. We're currently at the bottom of solar cycle 24, expected late 2019-2020, but won't know when the ultimate low was until the next up cycle is underway. And this NOAA article has scientists predicting the extent of the next solar max in 2026. Lock 'em up....she's a witch!

https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle

But the relevant part for next season, is that -AO increases chances of cold in europe, and I'm sure I read GWV mention that it is often the year after the ultimate low that has the highest correlation with -AO. So the background theory is favourable for the next 2 seasons.

Back to early august, the PV lobe over western Russia is threatening to reach parts of eastern europe, which could see FL's drop to 2500m.

test8
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

That really would be a strongly -NAO for early August!
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@polo, I feel I need a training course
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Some serious hail falling in parts of Austria today. Over 5cm in diameter. Motorists taking shelter in the tunnels.

https://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Heftige-Unwetter-Golfball-grosse-Hagel-Geschosse/390443931
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http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019072906_201907271945_2_stormforecast.xml

Highest risk south of the Alps (central
Italy and Adriatic), but still tricky in places. Valid from 0600.

“A level 1 was issued across N Italy, Slovenia, Hungary, Austria, Czech Republic and Slovakia mainly for excessive rainfall and to the lesser degree for large hail and severe wind gusts.“
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Away from the hot stormy Alps some cold snow heading for New Zealand!

http://www.mountainwatch.com/grasshopper/#new-zealand

“The front should hit the Southern Lakes as early as Tuesday afternoon, then the rest of the country throughout the night, spinning itself into a low as it does so. Snowfalls will mostly be light to moderate, but Canterbury should be lined up to receive heavy falls on Wednesday with 20-40cm accumulating. Snow should fall to about 600m in the South Island and 1000m in the North Island, with 15-20cm on the cards for the Southern Lakes and a little less for Ruapehu.”
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Some strong weather in Ebbs, Tirol.

https://twitter.com/severeweathereu/status/1155571171762610182?s=21
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“Swiss #glaciers have lost about 0.8 billion tons of snow and ice just during the two #heatwaves of late June and last week. Absolutely exceptional for a period of only 14 days in total! And the summer is not yet over... #Meltdown”

Matthias Huss

That of course has to be seen in the context of the large amount of snow and ice that was sitting on the glaciers as a result of the above average snowfall this year, but shows the impact of the heatwaves so far.
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