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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/kUg7OO1gZk0

Hot, hot, hot. Tabloids talking about 40C next week in Austria.

Time to relax by the pool and try to remember quite how much snow was tumbling down across Austria last January (clue: a lot times a lot).

Hard to imagine right now.

But first...

I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.

Computer models are good at giving you an idea of what the forecast is likely to be three to five days out (which is actually pretty amazing given the chaotic nature of weather). That said they can still be caught by surprise and accurately predicting precipitation in particular is very difficult. Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have. What they do have built on hard experience is a much better feel for how the weather will affect the local area and how that will change the conditions.

Here's something I scribbled down on forecasting at the end of the 2011 season. I think it still makes broad sense now.

nozawaonsen wrote:


"Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.

- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.

- Don't take it that seriously."

To which I'd add that beyond seven days you can't really talk about a forecast, what you have is a range of probabilities, as shown by the different coloured ensembles, which is almost always simply too great a spread to really call a forecast. You can't really make sense of these as a single snapshot. So you need to see how they evolve from run to run to give you a sense of whether certain options are looking more or less likley.


And to repeat forecasting accurate precipitation is very difficult (so be wary of any forecast that appears to say you will get 23.5cm of snow next Friday). Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so (so be wary of any snow report which claims 23.5cm of snow fell last Friday).

And finally for anyone wanting facts about the future. There aren't any there are only forecasts (and sensible ones tend to have caveats). So those guys promising you it’s all so easy? Well. It isn’t. Wasn’t last year, won’t be next year.

Good that hopefully should have cleared things up a bit.

But there’s going to be skiing to ski come autumn and winter and right now that feels like good odds.

As ever some thoughts on ENSO to follow...

Good to see you all again!
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YEAHH ! Welcome Back snowHead
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Posting into the best topic of the forum
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Storms incoming across the Alps today. Risks of severe thunderstorms, excessive precipitation and flash flooding. Basically not good weather to be up high in.

Here’s Estofex.

http://www.estofex.org/


http://youtube.com/v/iv8GW1GaoIc
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Woohoo!

...and so it begins! snowHead
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Leicester Square, 12.00 pm, best of luck to all snowheads be they chasing powder, blue skies and smooth pistes or even just nice wine or wellness

In before "I've booked les arcs for the third week of january - but snow on long term forecast looks crap, should I cancel" thread
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Leicester Square @ 12.00pm -- well dodgy... ??!! Smile
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Just been admiring some lovely pictures from Tierberglihutte ( above Sustenpass, Switzerland) folk skitoured up onto the Gwachtenhorn this morning in beautiful conditions. Is this 18/19 or very early 19/20 , I suppose we are through the solstice.........
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albob wrote:
Leicester Square @ 12.00pm -- well dodgy... ??!! Smile


Isn't it the start of around the world in 80 days? There's something great game-ish about powder chasing.

Don't quote me on any of the above.

Now who will get the first turns of the new season and how is hintertux holding up in the sun?
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Woo hoo! The countdown begins... 2 trips already booked!
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Whilst it’s heating up in Europe here’s a report on the snowy summer solstice in Colorado...

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/summer-snow-where-were-seeing-the-highest-snowfall-estimates-in-colorado
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Whilst it’s heating up in Europe here’s a report on the snowy summer solstice in Colorado...

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/summer-snow-where-were-seeing-the-highest-snowfall-estimates-in-colorado


Colorado snowpack is currently 40 times normal snowHead
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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The mainland Europe heatwave this coming week looks like a biggie.

Hottest period since the legendary 2003 and 2006 summer seasons.

The French, Swiss, Italian and Austrian glaciers are gonna get hammered.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Whitegold, hmmm... could be that you are reaching for the wrong tabloid comparison. The heat wave of 2003 in France was in August. Temperatures reached 44C. Whilst this is likely to break records for June it doesn’t look like reaching mid 40s more like high 30s. Cities like Paris look like seeing the highest heat and humidity. Dancing in the fountains till the early morning seems like a sensible response.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Timmelsjoch...

https://twitter.com/lovevelocycling/status/1142360338861625344?s=21
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, It'll take more than a few days of high 30s to clear that Very Happy
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Mind you parts of the Languedoc look like they might have a crack at that record...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Hit 39.7 C in Cham today if my weather station is to be believed. Sensor well protected.
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@under a new name, Wow. We've already sacked off climbing this week because it's too hot. 36C outside and 29C inside means I can't even set up my laptop on the balcony, and it's expected to be even warmer tomorrow. Too hot to do anything Confused
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@Scarlet, inside we’re about 22-23 with shutters mostly closed and getting down to 18 ish overnight.

If you have shutters it’s quite effective but weird to have all the lights on at noon mid-summer!
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Definitely very hot tonight in eastern Austria. Kind of oddly hot too on the streets. Lots of girls keeping cool in summer dresses and guys looking overdressed in suits. Breeze keeping it just about comfortable. Cold beer making it sane.

Lots of June records today.

Obergugl 1942m 26.2C
Schmittenhöhe 1956m 23.4C
Pitztal Glacier 2864m 16.3C
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Still hot, hot, hot and also still a fair amount of snow up in the mountains for the time of year, as the warmest June on record in Austria follows the coolest May in 28 years.
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Carpentras in Provence has just glanced at France’s all time high temperature record in August, said hold my beer and hit a new all time high of 44.3C, but this time in June.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Carpentras in Provence has just glanced at France’s all time high temperature record in August, said hold my beer and hit a new all time high of 44.3C, but this time in June.


so what you are saying is that Whitegold was correct?
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@davidof sure, but over years of watching what he posts on here I’ve come to the conclusion (not recently mind you) he’s just a troll trying to wind people up.

He says all sorts of things, sweeping statements of all sorts, some right some wrong. But all aimed to annoy and belittle people. There are a few others on this forum like that. Not too many fortunately. They seem to want to spread misery and spite. And it all really ends up reflecting back on them rather than anyone else.

I think the forum’s better when all the spiteful, racists, nationalists, xenophobes and trolls who are trying to put people down stay away.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@davidof sure, but over years of watching what he posts on here I’ve come to the conclusion (not recently mind you) he’s just a troll trying to wind people up.


ok more stopped clock syndrome then.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Blinking hot mind you. And I’m further east where it’s not hit 40C yet.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/ueberdurchschnittlich-viel-schnee-auf-den-gletschern-aber-fuer-massenbilanz-ist-sommer-entscheidend

Austrian glaciers started the summer half of the year with above average snow mass. In some up to 20% above the 20 year average. Clearly though hot summers (and this one is certainly starting hot) will counterbalance snowy winters. Fresh snowfall on glaciers during summer significantly reduces melting of glacial ice as it reflects more heat. Not much sign of that right now. Time to hit the pool.
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You know it makes sense.
As I predicted, once again, in the face of considerable hysteria, France hit an all-time high this week, of 45c / 113f.

Global boiling is tightening its grip on the European Alps.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I did a mountainbike ride the other day in 32C and that felt hot enough. Standing in the river and getting your trainers nice and wet pre ride helped Toofy Grin


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Sun 30-06-19 19:53; edited 1 time in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
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I went out on my bike earlier. There's a nice breeze along the river which is about 50% shade so it was manageable, but very hot on the way back once I got out into the farmland. Cycled very slowly past the sprinklers in an attempt to cool down Laughing Weatherbot says 33C outside/30C inside (high for today), so it's not even as hot as it has been. Back to 36C on Sunday though Shocked I think I'll go and sit by a lake.

Any idea when we'll get back to a more normal 25C or so? I'd like to be able to do more than bake in my own sweat.
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@Scarlet, temperatures look like returning to closer to normal in Tirol from early July. Still quite warm mind you. Rather pleasant up around the Dachstein this evening.
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Gard in Languedoc has stolen the title from Carprentras in Provence with an impressive 45.9C this afternoon.
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A nice cooling breeze and a high of 32c registered out on the Solent today
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A hot 25c forecast today for North Yorkshire. It was fairly warm in northern Iceland yesterday at 21c !
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Hiking around the Dachstein still occasional small isolated pockets of snow in shaded north facing slopes from about 1500m becoming more frequent from 1800m. Though given the racing waterfalls one suspects not for long...
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I've been out this past week on three big rides (Galibier, Izoard, Montgenevre /Echelles), after the first ride, I brought forward my departure time to 07:00 and I was still climbing in temps in the high 30's and then once back in the valley bike computer (in the sun briefly) was showing 41.5.

We've been sitting out still at 22:00 and temps are still in the 30's which is unheard of here, though they do fall to 15 in the early hours.

Last Wednesday there was an early evening storm with the rumbling of thunder which went on for a couple of hours and seemed to not move while we only had a few spots of rain, however literally as the crow flies immediately behind us in the Nevache Valley there was a massive flash flood landslide (éboulement éclair) and I cycled past that this morning and it was huge, that's the second time in three years that's occurred and shows how much of a lottery summer storms can be.

In fact, the weather over in Italy was dramatically different from our valley mid to late morning as I returned.

And the forecast for today is showing the possibility of storms and the clouds are massing as I type.

And from tomorrow evening through all Monday looking like storm central!
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Meanwhile... snowing in Hotham...

https://twitter.com/_hotham/status/1144957770573049857?s=21
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Today we were hiking opposite La Grave / La Meije and swimming in the non glacier Lac du Pontet.



Then looking up at the glacier centre of the image there was a very obvious discolouration, as the summit of Mont Blanc has been +6 this week and this is some 1,000m lower was wondering if it's a huge melt patch, or around it has melted and this is still cold snow / ice ?

This is it zoomed in.



And this is a shot of the Vallons, and for those that know you can quite clearly see the Trifide Couloir still holding snow.

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Another hot day in the Dachstein. Waterfalls full of melt water.

New June heat record for Innsbruck 38.5C and indeed for Tirol.

How’s the kayaking @clarky999?

Stormy in mountains at times this week.
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