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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Been watching closely in preparation for my trip to Obergurgl next week. Still going to be warmer than average and very sunny but not nearly as warm as was predicted 3 or 4 days ago. At that point Sunday 24th & Monday 25th were the warmest days and that has now moved back to Thursday 28th & Friday 1st March. Also very dry with notably low humidity.
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@hedley,

With the new moon
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Is it still looking likely that there will be some snow in the alps at the start of march? Particularly the Tarentaise Valley
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mk28 wrote:
Is it still looking likely that there will be some snow in the alps at the start of march? Particularly the Tarentaise Valley


All up in the air from my limited knowledge. The majority of the ensembles are sticking with the warm, dry theme....some outliers showing cooling and some precipiation, but these kind of blocking highs are usually hard to shift, and it's still a fair distance away to have any confidence in the forecasts.

ie this is for Les Arcs

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I'm hoping for a cool down in time for Sauze on 10th March... that would be lovely NehNeh Meanwhile i'm packing my budgie smugglers and sombrero for some warm skiing in Sierra Nevada this weekend Cool
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So where’s it going to snow on Friday?

Austria! Or more specifically parts of Tirol and Salzburgerland crossing into Styria.

Snowline around 1100m +/-.

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@Spike107, it's been snowing in Sierra Nevada this week, unlike the Alps!
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Tail end of 1st week of March is looking positive.
Though take with a big pinch of salt being 2 weeks out!
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@leggyblonde, and forecast for us next week does not look too bad either Cool

Though wind might be an issue Shocked

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leggyblonde wrote:
@Spike107, it's been snowing in Sierra Nevada this week, unlike the Alps!


Thanks for the info and nice to know!... been looking on Snowforecast most days and there's been no mention at all Very Happy
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@Spike107, this was yesterday:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BuG0OSDHKJr/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
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06z ups the snowfall round Salzburgerland tomorrow and continues to suggest snowfall and colder temperatures as we head into March (though without much support). ECM 00z also shunting high pressure out the way at the end of the run.

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Eh oh!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
i know absolutely nothing about these weather charts and graphs. Is purple the most snow likely?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Blue = cold, red = hot...........purple = freezing Razz
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nozawaonsen wrote:
06z ups the snowfall round Salzburgerland tomorrow and continues to suggest snowfall and colder temperatures as we head into March (though without much support). ECM 00z also shunting high pressure out the way at the end of the run.



Ooh, I’m right under that 56.
Skiing in Saalbach today, south facing slopes slushy, still plenty of snow depth though.
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12z GFS again suggesting a change of weather in the first week of March. At this stage the detail is too subject to change, but the broad pattern is for high pressure over Europe to break down increasing the likelihood of snowfall and colder than average weather. That could still change (and likely slip), but it is starting to gain a bit of momentum.
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Just spent a week in Bormio but it felt more like Borneo. Sunny and warm every day and I don't think I've ever skied with so few layers; just a merino baselayer and my Arcteryx MX softshell. It was a bit chilly until the sun hot the mountain but when it did it was glorious.

The pistes have held up remarkably well. Solid in the morning and softening later in the day.
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More and more indications that the high pressure will move away late next week. Jet stream will go further south. What kind of weather this will lead to and what kind of new regime we will see remain highly uncertain. EC monthly is on the mild side the whole next mont with indications of NAO +.
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Hmm. Early March less clear cut this morning. High pressure certainly much weaker heading into early March, but will whether it brings cold and snow is still in the balance.

Meanwhile very rainy down in the Ennstal valley, but snowing above roughly 1000m. Going to be cold overnight. Back to sun tomorrow.
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Warning FI charts involved...

Current set up with high pressure anchored over Europe.



Where GFS takes us at end of first week of March with high pressure replaced by low pressure.



Will it happen? Juries out at this stage.
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Snow-forecast seems to follow the same story, this is 12 day for Chamonix. Yes i know its FI but its hope of a change coming soon.

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@jimmy38, it would. It’s produced from the same source data, the GFS op run.
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12pm run puts us back to square one Sad
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@Mr.Egg, it hasn’t come out yet.
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mk28 wrote:
Is it still looking likely that there will be some snow in the alps at the start of march? Particularly the Tarentaise Valley


Could be high altitude rain initially from 2/3 March then turning a bit colder at the start of the week bring snow a bit lower, for the FNA.
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davidof wrote:
mk28 wrote:
Is it still looking likely that there will be some snow in the alps at the start of march? Particularly the Tarentaise Valley


Could be high altitude rain initially from 2/3 March then turning a bit colder at the start of the week bring snow a bit lower, for the FNA.


snow seems to have been pushed back 2-3 days
*waits for 6pm run*
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Mr.Egg, I think you are getting confused about the different GFS model runs.

00z starts coming out at 0330z
06z starts coming out at 0930z
12z starts coming out at 1530z
18z starts coming out at 2130z
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@mk28, it’s too soon to tell. There is quite a bit to suggest a pattern shift in the first week of March (ie high pressure breaking down). Some runs have suggested this might be replaced by a NWerly which would bring cold and snow to the Tarentaise, some a more Werly flow which could initially see milder conditions (like @davidof, mentions), or the high pressure could be stubborn and rebuild.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
There’s a new moon 5/6th March Just saying
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Poster: A snowHead
@Rob Mackley, as indeed there was on 19 February and...
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@nozawaonsen,
I thought it was actually the 4th Feb in western Alps and before that it was the 6th Jan just when the last high broke down .
So here’s hoping .
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen,
I thought it was actually the 4th Feb in western Alps and before that it was the 6th Jan just when the last high broke down .
So here’s hoping .
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@Rob Mackley, absolutely right. 19th was completely opposite. Full moon. Doh. However, it makes no difference either way.

04 February was the start of a dry spell...
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@nozawaonsen,

Just being mischievous
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Meteo France seem to indicate a week of mild weather with lots of rain from Sat 2nd, presumably their models indicate mild wet airstream coming in once the high pressure breaks down. Hope they are wrong, as warm and sunny is OK, but warm and wet is not good.
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What's going on with the charts on wetterzentrale? from 7th it looks like a deluge!
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@sugardaddy, that would bury the northern Alps in snow. But note it’s a strong outlier!

Cold this morning. -6Cand sunny. Nice.
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@RobinS, warm and wet might be what we need (temporarily) to get to cold and wet. i.e. while not good in the short term, good in the long term.

At least warm and wet would mean an end to the high pressure, which is more difficult to get rid of than high temperature.
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Iceland needs to change its name.

Noiceland.

Relentless rain.

Nudging 10c / 50f in Reykjavik at midnight yesterday.
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