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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Next few days looking interesting and then all next week sun, sun and sun.

Did a good N facing ski tour on Thursday and scored cold fresh untracked from only 1,600m to 2,200m then Friday was warm and sunny and then I took a couple of others on the same tour and snow was nowhere near as good, not helped by flat light.

We're now waiting for the snow to start, radar predicting circa 14:00 but we'll be in the bar warming up at 15:30 for a certain rugby match.

Looks like another North-South split with the better accumulations North of the Lautaret today and tomorrow, and then as luck would have it, mates have my friendly guide booked in La Grave Tues onwards for three days Cool

So will be interesting to see what he's proposing come Thursday with the warm temps though sure he'll still be finding the good stuff.

Been really weird with no real transformation going on in the snowpack where you'd normally expect it to happen this past week, just a bit of a crust over 20cm of heavy snow rolling eyes
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:
@telford_mike, Constant thaw and temps up to 10c in the valleys? A total nightmare.


@staffsan if you are going at half term, as I am, I would not stress about the forecast for sun with slightly mild temperatures. It is the busiest week of the year so the last thing you want is snowy weather which results in nightmare traffic jams / journeys to / from resort, most lifts closed and pistes which are open over-crowded, mogulled carnage. Fine weather with the great snow base will mean better journeys and much more ski-ing on less busy pistes.

Also, even if the current forecast does materialise, skiing above 2000m should be slush free and lovely conditions most fo the day. I suspect the week commencing 17 Feb will turn out a bit less sunny and cooler that some of the computer generated models are suggesting at present. There are some really weird and unlikely outputs such as the BBC showing BSM at 850 metres altitude hitting 18 degrees C while Nice at sea level is 4 degrees cooler.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Weathercam, certainly going to get a bit crunchy this afternoon...
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SLF forecast for Switzerland tomorrow.

”Skies will be heavily overcast, frequent snowfall is anticipated, particularly in the Lower Valais, on the northern flank of the Alps and in northern Grisons. Only in central Ticino and Sotto Ceneri will be it predominantly sunny.

Fresh snow

The snowfall level will lie beneath 1000 m. The following amounts of fresh snow can be expected by Monday afternoon:

western part of Jura region, Lower Valais, northern flank of the Alps, Prättigau, Silvretta, Samnaun: 20 to 40 cm; in the furthermost western part of Lower Valais and on the northern Alpine Ridge west of the Jungfrau, as much as 50 cm;

eastern part of Jura region, as well as from Upper Valais over northern Ticino as far as the remaining parts of Grisons: generally 10 to 20 cm;

central Ticino and Sotto Ceneri: 5 to 10 cm.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, -9 °C.

Wind

Winds will be westerly to northwesterly,
blowing at moderate to strong velocity in northern regions;
on the Main Alpine Ridge and southwards therefrom, blowing at strong to storm-strength; penetrating northerly winds during the afternoon in the Ticino will extend down to low lying areas.

Outlook through Wednesday, 13.02.2019

Tuesday

During the morning in the eastern sector of the northern flank of the Alps, the final snow showers of this period of precipitation will fall. In the other parts of eastern regions it will be partly sunny, in the remaining regions of Switzerland predominantly so. In general at high altitudes and on the southern flank of the Alps, a strong to storm-strength northerly wind will be blowing and penetrate down to low lying areas. The avalanche danger levels in outlying terrain away from secured and marked ski runs will remain critical over widespread areas.

Wednesday

It will be predominantly sunny. The northerly winds are expected to slacken off. Temperatures will rise significantly. The avalanche danger levels will decrease only incrementally to start with.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Crazy crazy conditions out there tonight, pre rugby streets, pathways very slushy, whilst watching rugby light snow falling, then off to dinner said roads/pathways tad slippery, and then 21:30 coming out of restaurant black ice city, we all said we've never known anything like it...............

Temps, not that cold minus -1 but uber strong winds with intense wind chill and resultant black ice crazy !
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Moody Saalach webcam.

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Hmmm, 18z has produced an interesting option in just over a week.



That would be cold and snowy for the Alps. Be interesting to see if that is still there in the morning.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Seems to have backed off on the snow now, but significantly colder 16-18th, which is also nice! Lets see if ecm follows soon.



(Was that righteous?)
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Why’s my ensemble link stuck on 4th Feb? Just me??

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png
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@Dashed, Nope, mine is the same, seems to be bust, but it has done this in the past.

have been using this one

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=39996&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=

and looks like its going to really warm up Shocked
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Dashed wrote:
Why’s my ensemble link stuck on 4th Feb? Just me??

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png


Yes sadly the link to the specific graphic file appears to have stopped working, anyone know if it is an error or a conscious decision to switch that off?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Arriving in St Anton on the 23rd. Concerned that the snow won't last considering the forecast for warm temps over the next 2 or so weeks with little sign of snow after the current event.

Am I just being paranoid? Has anyone skied the Arlberg in spring like conditions? Thoughts / comments?

Cheers
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Don87 wrote:
Am I just being paranoid? Has anyone skied the Arlberg in spring like conditions? Thoughts / comments?

Cheers


Yes you are being paranoid, it'll be fine, enough snow to last until the end of season already. Spring snow is 2nd best to fresh powder IMHO. Follow the sun as it warms the slopes, then head back to Northern facing slopes if it gets really hot! Although the F/L for this weeks seems to be 1900m so no issues at all.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Don87, you do know that Austria had its biggest ever snowfalls just a few weeks ago?
If there was not another flake, and if it was 25 degrees every day you will still have snow...plenty of snow.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Don87 wrote:
Arriving in St Anton on the 23rd. Concerned that the snow won't last considering the forecast for warm temps over the next 2 or so weeks with little sign of snow after the current event.

Am I just being paranoid? Has anyone skied the Arlberg in spring like conditions? Thoughts / comments?

Cheers


Errmmm, yes.

There's enough snow in the Arlberg to last until summer ...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Hahaha. Okay good to know! Thanks... I will stop worrying now.

Just can't seem to find a happy balance... Skied Banff in December 2017 and almost froze to death in -35C, and now facing mild temps in the Alps
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
rungsp wrote:
@Don87, you do know that Austria had its biggest ever snowfalls just a few weeks ago?
If there was not another flake, and if it was 25 degrees every day you will still have snow...plenty of snow.


We got another 30 - 40cm today and it is still snowing now. I think tomorrow’s snow report will show a depth of better than 370cm on the Galzig. No, there is absolutely no chance that you will run out of snow. The quality is an unknown, but the quantity is not in question.
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After the snowfall clears through the weather this week is going to become increasingly warm and mild. Shade selection and ensuring you have the right aspect facing everyone else on the terrace will become increasingly important.

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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Does anyone have any tips for someone who will never learn to like slush and will be in the Chamonix the next couple of weeks? I mean even there skiing is limited over 3000m, which seems to be almost as high as FL will be some days. Get skins and head for north faces? Would i be better off heading east to maybe some place like Zermatt, or even to higher resorts in Austria? Or should i just get this trip over with so i can forget it and start planning the next, promising to never ever go outside of january again?


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Mon 11-02-19 21:35; edited 1 time in total
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What is all this talk of slush ?

Scaremongering me thinks
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Renry,
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@staffsan, stop worrying. Ski, enjoy the weather and the mountains.
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@kitenski, sounds like you opt for the "get it over with"-option Razz
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I do love the description from chamonix meteo for thursdays weather though - "outstandingly fair" Very Happy

http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/forecast/evening/6_days_weather_forecast.php
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
I propose that @staffsan be appointed the honorary 'Lance Corporal Jones' of the 18/19 Weather Outlook thread. Laughing wink snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@staffsan, just get some fat skis and surf (or a snowboard
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Well the old adage of ‘you can’t please all of the people all of the time’ certainly applies to staffsan. It doesn’t seem to matter what anyone says in appeasement and it’s been going on for days and pages now. Boring. There’s tonnes of snow and it’s going to be sunny and warm.

Suck it up princess.
snow report     
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
You missed - cancel and book either Lake Tahoe, California or Jackson Hole in Wyoming and not see the sun at all and literally drown in powder ... can you ski powder ?! Laughing

I shall be cruising the Arlberg in between eating my body weight in local food !
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@staffsan, perfect opportunity to learn to snowboard if you are not already of that persuasion
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
hd wrote:
@staffsan, perfect opportunity to learn to snowboard if you are not already of that persuasion
at the risk of getting slightly off topic. Just worry about the things you can affect.
1) Be at first lifts
2) Ski long, Long lunch
3) How much sun block to apply
4) What's for lunch
5) Enjoy. For me it's always better that the office. ALWAYS!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@staffsan,

Relax , bet you come back loving the deep snow pack , the great visibility , the cold and still powdery high north facing slopes, the softening south facing slopes , the chance of some nice touring if your in to that sort of thing , long lunches , suntans , less layers , outside late afternoon Apres etc etc
The closed slopes , cold wind , digging out the car , avi danger , trying to find space inside the mountainside restuarant , loads of layers , weather delayed transfers and cancelled flights etc etc will be a distant memory . Cool Cool
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Rob Mackley wrote:
@staffsan,

Relax , bet you come back loving the deep snow pack , the great visibility , the cold and still powdery high north facing slopes, the softening south facing slopes , the chance of some nice touring if your in to that sort of thing , long lunches , suntans , less layers , outside late afternoon Apres etc etc
The closed slopes , cold wind , digging out the car , avi danger , trying to find space inside the mountainside restuarant , loads of layers , weather delayed transfers and cancelled flights etc etc will be a distant memory . Cool Cool


I'd rather ski any day in spring conditions than when snow is falling and visibility is poor. I am unashamedly a fair weather skier...
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staffsan wrote:
Does anyone have any tips for someone who will never learn to like slush and will be in the Chamonix the next couple of weeks? I mean even there skiing is limited over 3000m, which seems to be almost as high as FL will be some days. Get skins and head for north faces? Would i be better off heading east to maybe some place like Zermatt, or even to higher resorts in Austria? Or should i just get this trip over with so i can forget it and start planning the next, promising to never ever go outside of january again?


If lovely smooth soft spring snow, endlessly grippy pistes, and cold beers on warm sun terraces surrounded by mountains sound that awful to you, maybe donate the trip to someone who will appreciate it and go to Milton Keynes instead. I hear they maintain consistent temperatures.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Great post @Rob Mackley,
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What clarky says. Its going to be sunny. There isn't going to be any fresh. If you don't like it, don't bore us with the constant moaning.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I don’t actually believe it’s going to be that hot next week , yes very nice in the afternoon on the sunny slopes but cold nights and still cool on shaded slopes . Too much over reaction going on .
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Seconding Rob. For every pro, there is a con. Last week I was crapping my pants driving through heavy snow, on packed ice trying to get back to Grenoble for the (inevitably delayed anyway) flight home - after a week where it had snowed most nights and by the end the Avalanche risk was at 5. Plenty of powder though. I have two suggestions for those prone to weather anxiety on this forum:

1. Learn to make the most of whatever conditions you encounter. Some of that is about technique, but mostly it is about the attitude you adopt.

2. The best solution to the problem of ensuring you get a perfect week's skiing every year is not about the resort, the country or the month. It is to take more skiing holidays a year!
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Personally I appreciated the sun this morning Happy

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@davidof Wow!
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