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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Is it so good ? Asked St Moritz tourist office of conditions at all levels and off piste...
“The skiing conditions are great. We have up to 150cm of cold deep powder in the ski resorts. Our covered slopes are much better than in Austria, trust me. our slopes are really great!”

“Wow. That sounds impressive. So it’s good off piste and at lower levels too ?”

“Yes it is! For both, beginner and advanced Level.”
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Can you get snow from fog/mist?we had low cloud overnight in Plessey Vancroix and had about 0.5-1cm on the van this morning....

https://photos.app.goo.gl/HdSjo4eKq4rA3FdZ9
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
08/09 January would see snow showers reaching the western end of the Alps on 12z GFS...


I thought I saw that, was going to wait for the 00Z to see if it stayed... do any of the other models agree / disagree? (from my amateur reading, ECMWF would suggest it's possible...)
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not surprisingly avi risk up to a 4 for northern steiermark, dachstein area. Still pumping it down in schladming. I guess it will be the same for salzburgerland

http://www.lawine-steiermark.at/lagebericht/avalanche-bulletin
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
kitenski wrote:
Can you get snow from fog/mist?we had low cloud overnight in Plessey Vancroix and had about 0.5-1cm on the van this morning....

https://photos.app.goo.gl/HdSjo4eKq4rA3FdZ9


Pollution snow.
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waynos wrote:
not surprisingly avi risk up to a 4 for northern steiermark, dachstein area. Still pumping it down in schladming. I guess it will be the same for salzburgerland

http://www.lawine-steiermark.at/lagebericht/avalanche-bulletin


We are in Lofer and has been dumping down all day
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Obertauern looking quite snowy...

https://www.facebook.com/565699353523047/posts/2060302964062671/
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Dumping in Innsbruck all day too
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Please can someone refresh my memory? Is www.snowforecast.com based on the GFS op run? Am sure someone said that a long time ago. Thank you
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@geoff10, I believe it is yes, but someone much more informed that me will be along soon to confirm snowHead
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@geoff10, yes they use GFS as the base input. As indeed do the vast majority of weather forecasts you find on the internet. Not least because the data is free.

What I‘d suggest you need to keep in mind however is that the representation that snowforecast and other similar sites produce tends to simplify the complexity of ensemble forecasts to the point that they risk implying a degree of certainty in a forecast when the raw ensemble data may well be implying more uncertainty.

“Although the actual snowfall forecasts are made using our computers at snow-forecast.com, the raw weather forecast data comes from the National Weather Service (NWS) in America; the largest organisation of its kind in the world. Serious weather forecasting requires massive computer power, vast expertise and an almost unlimited budget. Only a very few organisiations in the world can achieve this, arguably only two! If they are honset, most small weather companies derive their products from people like NOAA and ECMWF, and those that don't would probably become much more reliable if they did! To our credit we do much more than simply re-package NOAA products, but without them as a basis, our service couldn't exist at all.

We use the Global Forecast System (GFS) weather models for our input data. For our purposes these are ideal, not only because they are detailed, reliable and frequently updated, but also, because they are intended for aviation planning. Thus, they contain accurate descriptions of how conditions vary with elevation. This provides the key to how we derive surface temperature over a wide range of altitudes using digital elevation models. When we combine this with preciptiation forecasts, we arrive at snowfall.”
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Now showing snow in Val d’isere and tignes from the middle of next week
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I always compare snow forecast which is GFS based and bergfex which i believe is ECM based and if they agree you know theres a degree of certainty. Generally try not to pay too much attention to the detail like snow amounts etc
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Arriving in Ischgl on 11/01 I rather like this dutch forecast for the next 14 days. Certainly not using the same data as Bergfex

https://www.wintersport.nl/skigebieden/ischgl/weersverwachting
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Fresh snow prospects for the NW French Alps look a lot more promising in the mid-range now. The southern Alps still seem less certain and clarity will probably have to wait until closer to the short term. But there is hope now as others have said, beginning around the 8th or 9th.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
There does indeed seem to be some hope for the NW Alps - and at least *some* snow now looks likely next week going by the ensembles. But only small amounts suggested at this stage. That'll be enough to freshen the pistes which are already open, but will it be enough to really ignite the season for lower areas such as PdS, Grand Massif, Megeve and the day resorts in the pre-Alps?

Looks like the southern Alps will need to play the waiting game for a little longer.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
EC, GFS, and ICON say its on for NW French Alps and Switzerland, dropping mid-level energy right through France with slightly varying timing in the Jan 8-10 timeframe. The CMC is not on board yet and ensembles from 0z were mixed. Some opportunities for Italy and southern Austria popping up further out too. In the meantime, everyone who can should experience the deep powder in the northern and central Austrian ranges.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Still a wide spread in the ensembles, particularly beginning around day 4. The longwave trof looks like it will retrograde westward but energy dropping into the trof is variably modeled.
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Hmmm....Innsbruck flights plus car booked for 13-20 January. So, do we now:

- Stick with our first ever full week in the Dolomites (near Canazei) OR...
- Cancel our digs for free before the 9th January deadline and stay in Austria instead.

Puzzled Puzzled Puzzled

Have to say, really fancy the Dolomites for a lovely change - but not if it's skiing strips of snow through green pastures... rolling eyes It is mid-winter after all...Not looking very promising for Italy is it??
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mountainaddict wrote:
Hmmm....Innsbruck flights plus car booked for 13-20 January. So, do we now:

- Stick with our first ever full week in the Dolomites (near Canazei) OR...
- Cancel our digs for free before the 9th January deadline and stay in Austria instead.

Puzzled Puzzled Puzzled

Have to say, really fancy the Dolomites for a lovely change - but not if it's skiing strips of snow through green pastures... rolling eyes It is mid-winter after all...Not looking very promising for Italy is it??


Austria. Looks like it is going to be fantastic all across.

Landing at Innsbruck on 11th and off to Ischgl.
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I’ve done Canazei and a lot of Austria and would choose the latter nearly every time but with the snow as it is I would say it’s a no brainier. We are off to Lech the same week and it’s looking like snorkels are needed for our trip!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
puplett wrote:
I’ve done Canazei and a lot of Austria and would choose the latter nearly every time but with the snow as it is I would say it’s a no brainier. We are off to Lech the same week and it’s looking like snorkels are needed for our trip!


But sun starting to show - very optimistically as it is 10 days out - here https://www.wintersport.nl/skigebieden/ischgl/weersverwachting (click "bekijk 14-daagse weersverwachting" for 14 days forecast/guesswork)
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Crazy shifts to the west in the last 24hours, even for the GFS, which seemed to move everything about 500 miles. ICON (which has been better short term) 12z below for next Tuesday.
Been reading the MJO passing thru the favourable phase 7 has been brought forward in time to now. It may not be related, but the heights building toward greenland are part of the signature.



Would be nice to see UKMO follow on, and the others.....but great to see such dramatic swings within 120hrs, ie less likely to reverse.
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puplett wrote:
I’ve done Canazei and a lot of Austria and would choose the latter nearly every time but with the snow as it is I would say it’s a no brainier. We are off to Lech the same week and it’s looking like snorkels are needed for our trip!


Most of Austria is skiing great. But right now and for the foreseeable future, snorkels are only needed east of Innsbruck and pretty far off-piste. But I would definitely have the snorkel handy this week.

There is just a glimmer of hope now out beyond 5 days for parts of Italy. Nothing massive but there are hints of Mediterranean moisture locally impacting parts of the southern Alps.
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altaski8 wrote:
puplett wrote:
I’ve done Canazei and a lot of Austria and would choose the latter nearly every time but with the snow as it is I would say it’s a no brainier. We are off to Lech the same week and it’s looking like snorkels are needed for our trip!


Most of Austria is skiing great. But right now and for the foreseeable future, snorkels are only needed east of Innsbruck and pretty far off-piste. But I would definitely have the snorkel handy this week.
.


Friends reporting deepness in Sonnenkopf/other parts of VBG too, just a bit too warm on bottom 200m. And almost fights in the lift ticket queue, apparently rolling eyes
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Austrians are very aggressive in lines/queues NehNeh
60cm OTG is deep. When you hit 100cm OTG then you're getting into snorkel territory. That usually takes about 1.5 - 2 meters of accumulated snow.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@mountainaddict, If you decide to switch to Austria, I may be able to help with accommodation in Saalbach. PM me if interested.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@altaski8, depends how tall you are really haha! And how dry the snow is. Hoping it stays cold enough for real blower in the east over the weekend...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
scotspikey wrote:
Crikey. This thread is going off piste. I click on it and read it to read about weather. I've just been forced to read a page of nonsense. Let's keep it on topic guys and girls. The weather is already making me angry enough without arguments about 'snowsure' and the like.


This needs a bump snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Anything in the pipeline for the Scottish ski areas?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
12z GFS bringing Italy squarely into play with a piece of mid-level energy diving through France and then cutting off over the Ligurian Sea mid-week next week. Guidance has been trending towards a more extreme solution like this, but it's still too early to be confident. As modeled, a mid-level southerly flow would bring locally significant moisture into the southern Alps. It's way too early to pinpoint exactly where. But this is a spread-the-wealth scenario and a good sign for the snow starved.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Slightly on a tangent but related look at that heat over Greenland.



Meanwhile not only the west but the south (eg Dolomites) would benefit midweek on 12z GFS too.





For what’s its worth far FI of GFS cold and snowy across the Alps.

Meanwhile in Saalbach snow picking up again outside...


http://youtube.com/v/E2D2oUNTbjU
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
https://www.instagram.com/p/BsLbuYPBmA0/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet

still snowing in BC Toofy Grin
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Bergfex reporting one meter of fresh on the Nordkette, but I assume that's some kind of anomaly and not actually accurate, most other places around 40 - 50cm:

https://www.bergfex.com/oesterreich/schneewerte/
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Another good video from Obertauern.

https://www.facebook.com/565699353523047/posts/2061964220563212/
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@nozawaonsen, thank you for the detailed response!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Les Arc and La Plagne now seem to be showing some snow next Monday/tuesday
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
Les Arc and La Plagne now seem to be showing some snow next Monday/tuesday


Same for 3V. Fingers crossed snowHead
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Raven wrote:
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
Les Arc and La Plagne now seem to be showing some snow next Monday/tuesday


Same for 3V. Fingers crossed snowHead


Do the experts here think it's a significant shift in the current weather pattern or just a 1-2 day exception?
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Weather gurus - advice needed please.
I’m due to head to the Dolomites tomorrow. The forecast shows high winds and no snow. I’m thinking there will be a lot of lifts shut.
Is there somewhere in Austria that I could divert to that would be less windy? The fresh snow would also be a bonus.
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