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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
luigi wrote:
altaski8 wrote:
Pretty high freezing level in southern Germany today. Looks to be up over 1200m with local variations. Snow level primarily between 600m and 700m with snow periodically mixing at lower elevations in more intense precipitation. Lots of Atlantic warmth tainting the boundary layer.


Thankfully, most skiing is over 700m.

Is it looking to get colder by Wed though?

I think it's helpful to know the local conditions: temperature, precipitation type, recent snow accumulations. That is what I am used to from North American weather/ski forums. I wish more people provided them. Snow conditions and reports from the Alps are hideously unreliable.

Yes drier snow is coming beginning Tuesday night.
snow conditions     
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
[quote="MountainIdiot"]
Quote:




fair point, but due to the massive areas involved is there any particular reason why the high in question couldn't shift to bring the same snowy weather further west? obviously just because it "could" doesn't mean in any way that it would, but is there an atmospheric reason that would prevent this?


There's a good chance the rest of Switzerland and maybe the northern-most French Alps get in on the action later next week or beyond. The rest of the French Alps and Italy are still in waiting and hoping mode.
snow conditions     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Fingers crossed that some of the scenarios in FI for the period from the 11th Jan onwards play out.

Happy new year to all - here's to a snowy start to 2019.
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I have seen Stau mentioned a few times and just wondering what it means. Whatever it is it's good. We are bang in it in Salzburgerland.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I have until Friday to change or cancel a reservation at Vald'isere for early February. Is it overreacting to switch to the Arlberg? We fly into Geneva so it would be a longer transfer time.
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@Ptspeak, a box of pampers might help? Toofy Grin
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Ptspeak, a little bit early to panic, in my opinion and for VD. Though if all you are left with (if you cancel) is the flight cost wouldn't it be cheaper to book new flights than transfer from Geneva to Arlberg?
snow conditions     
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
mooney058 wrote:
@Ptspeak, a box of pampers might help? Toofy Grin

????
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@Ptspeak Have a bit of patience. The majority of the long-term forecasts are either unreliable at best or straight b#lls@1t!
It is a nice sport to discuss the snow conditions of early February, but do not take it too seriously. Val dIsere is ranked #6 in the snow sure ranking of https://SkiWeather.eu (based on 12 years of snow reporting). I wouldn't worry too much. Have a lovely 2019! Smile

https://skiweather.eu/snowsure/
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
toyah807 wrote:
@Ptspeak, a little bit early to panic, in my opinion and for VD. Though if all you are left with (if you cancel) is the flight cost wouldn't it be cheaper to book new flights than transfer from Geneva to Arlberg?

Not from the USA. It is easier to take the train or fly to Zurich or Innsbruck from GVA. I won't change it. Just overreaction to some negative long range forecasts here.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
engadin wrote:
Val dIsere is ranked #6 in the snow sure ranking of https://SkiWeather.eu (based on 12 years of snow reporting). I wouldn't worry too much. Have a lovely 2019! Smile

https://skiweather.eu/snowsure/


"Snowsure" is a made up marketing phrase presumably invented by the Brits. It's almost completely meaningless and should be ignored. Yes you are almost "sure" to find "snow" on top of the glaciers near Zermatt, but fresh snow occurs there relatively infrequently.

Val d'isere gets just slightly below average snowfall compared to the Alps as a whole. But if you narrow your comparison to just the high alpine areas, that area of France is relatively dry. This is because of its sheltered position in the middle of the range. Yes there are certain scenarios that can deliver a lot of snow to Val d'isere and Tignes, but overall, lower areas to the north and west are snowier on average.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RDqnpdwfoiE/UPAwAmoiDDI/AAAAAAAASFQ/vO3J1KTiv_0/s1600/alps.jpg
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

negative long range forecasts


No such thing (as a long range forecast).
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Altaski8 The SW-ranking is based on patterns (in timeseries) of relative snow depth (upper, mid and lower), and - temperature (high, mid and low altitude) over a period of 12 years. 4 measurements per day, multiple measure points. These dimensions were reduced and ski resorts clustered. It is not about precipitation or snow depth in itself but about prolongued situation of favourable conditions (where snow can accumulate, settle and 'survive'). Which means that snow fall in itself is of less importance (although a significant factor). I think you are mistaken by meaningless rankings of weblogs.
More here : https://skiweather.eu/weblog/entry/the-snowiest-skiresort-in-the-alps


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Mon 31-12-18 18:27; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
2waterford wrote:
I have seen Stau mentioned a few times and just wondering what it means. Whatever it is it's good. We are bang in it in Salzburgerland.


'Stau' is the German word for traffic jam, but in the weather context, it means a traffic jam of snow-bearing clouds hitting the mountains, being forced upwards (orographic lift) and dropping their moisture.

'Nordstau' means the weather is coming from a northerly direction bringing precipitaion, hopefully snow along the N Alps, usually is dry to the S of the main Alpine Ridge (Otztaler Alpen, Brenner Pass, Zillertaler Alpen, Tauern ranges).

'Südstau ' benefits the Italian side (inc East Tyrol & Carinthia in Austria) and usually results in a Föhn (hairdryer) wind on Northern side that strips the snow there.

This week is a series of Nordstau events, so most parts of the Salzburgerland are benefiting. Though, the Lungau is on the S side so often finds itself in a rain shadow during a Nordstau event
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@engadin, you're right, that list and methodology are better than most. But I still think it's essentially useless. Snow conditions are about timing the weather, especially in the Alps. Snow "survives" incredibly well on the Matterhorn glacier paradise, near Stelvio, or on Grande Motte. But skiing conditions are usually better elsewhere. Frequency of snowfall is the most important metric. There is no such thing as snow sure, just snow likely. And some of the entries on that list are pretty dubious.
snow conditions     
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
altaski8 wrote:
engadin wrote:
Val dIsere is ranked #6 in the snow sure ranking of https://SkiWeather.eu (based on 12 years of snow reporting). I wouldn't worry too much. Have a lovely 2019! Smile

https://skiweather.eu/snowsure/


"Snowsure" is a made up marketing phrase presumably invented by the Brits. It's almost completely meaningless and should be ignored. Yes you are almost "sure" to find "snow" on top of the glaciers near Zermatt, but fresh snow occurs there relatively infrequently.

Val d'isere gets just slightly below average snowfall compared to the Alps as a whole. But if you narrow your comparison to just the high alpine areas, that area of France is relatively dry. This is because of its sheltered position in the middle of the range. Yes there are certain scenarios that can deliver a lot of snow to Val d'isere and Tignes, but overall, lower areas to the north and west are snowier on average.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RDqnpdwfoiE/UPAwAmoiDDI/AAAAAAAASFQ/vO3J1KTiv_0/s1600/alps.jpg

Attention snow sure is not the same as falling a lot of precipitation! The inner alpine valleys are less influenced by the warrmer air from the atlantic (the same shelter that causes less precipitation to fall). So Val D'Isère keeps it's snow better than Avoriaz.

Then you have altitude: the high altitude means more precipitation that falls as snow. So Val D'isere ski area may keep its snow from beginning of November while portes du soleil it is rather end of November (and rain remains frequent troughout the winter, and much less in Val.

This combination means Val D'isère is a snowsure resort despite not having the greatest snowfalls. Also Val D'Isere gets snow from retour d'est, so it gets snow from more directions than the north-western ones. In recent years it meant a good start for Val while north-west ones were suffering

Also the picture you show is probably precipitation at the same altitude? The higher the more precipitation falls, So in the middle of the ski area in Val D'isere (take 2500m) there probably doesn't fall that much less than on the middle altitude of Portes Du soleil (say 1600m), in any case the difference is less than what that picture suggests.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
That chart is also probably for average yearly precipitation, not sure if that has any bearing, but most places in the Alps are wetter in the summer than in winter.

There's no doubt that some parts of the Alps are a lot drier than others. The Dolomites are one of the driest ranges, but clever use of artificial snowmaking along with a dry, cold winter climate has made them one of the most consistently 'snowsure' ski areas of the Alps, over 1100km of piste skiing is currently available, despite minimal natural snowfall in December.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@altaski8 I think we share the same level of annoyance regarding unsubstantiated claims about snow reliability. The article articulates that mutual concern very clearly. The research is not about high-altitude skiing or precipitation levels. It is one of the few (only?) that chooses a long-term and broad multi-dimensional approach. Consider the ranking as a sliding scale which enables people to evaluate if they like to pay a substantial fee for a high-altitude ski resort like Zermatt, Val d'Isere, Tignes or Val Thorens while ski resorts with a similar profile or fingerprint give you way more in return. The list is to put things in perspective (which was your main concern). I think it is very useful for a lot of people. I am not a big fan of rankings of any kind, but this time it serves an honest goal: to open a level-playing field and to by-pass marketing ploys.

To be honest, your remarks considering the list are fairly weak. It is an independent, unbiased research, it is the first and biggest research of it's kind. It took 10 to 12 years. 7.5 to 8 mln records (10mln by now) were analyzed for -LONG-TERM PATTERNS- with advanced data-science methods. It's main purpose is to show people that their gut feeling is prominent and persistent. Not easy to get rid of. You've proved that right.

I can talk all day about selective perspectives and from extensive knowledge, but in the end it doesn't hurt to bring solid research and data science to the table. I remember a comment from you earlier about your desire for more (reliable) data. If you want to challenge research methodology or data science then 'I'm your man'.

The research was conducted under my supervision. Mark Henry Gremmen (SkiWeather.eu)


Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Mon 31-12-18 18:33; edited 2 times in total
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@engadin, but your link illustrates perfectly the problem that they claim to be able to solve, that of measuring and comparing snow sure-ness. Chamonix comes in at #343. I am quite sure that that is partially due to the fact that they take the "base station" to be at 1,035m.

80% of Chamonix Valley skiing is >1,900m. If there was no snow at all at 1,400m you'd still access 90% of the pisted terrain.

The Grands Montets closes early May.

Avoriaz however, which closes weeks before that gets a massively better ranking almost certainly because the "Avoriaz-only" analysis is all >1,300.

Demonstrates that this is a really hard question to answer. (Champoluc, also close to my heart gets a ranking of #62). In near 20 years of skiing both Champoluc and Chamonix extensively, there is absolutely no freaking way that this is representative of quantity or quality of snow. However, if they have also taken into account quality of food and wine, that makes a lot more sense wink


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Mon 31-12-18 20:18; edited 1 time in total
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@under a new name, Champoluc is performing pretty well in my opinion. It has a very solid position, which indicates that snow- and ski conditions are very good most of the times. Remember that there are 1950+ ski resorts in Europe. I haven't taste your wine or food but I am adding points immediately Wink
Chamonix valley does receive quite a lot of precipitation, but a large part is not snow. The measure points of Chamonix valley are on the slopes (not the village itself). I think you have a good point in the fact that Chamonix might not be the snow-sure ski resort everyone is thinking of.

For now, I am going to enjoy New Year. Hope everyone has a great 2019, live happy, wise and enjoy life!
snow conditions     
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Raven wrote:
davidof wrote:
altaski8 wrote:
If it weren't for man-made snow, dozens of resorts would have to shut down.


That is true, there would be little skiable below 1700/1800 meters.

Doesn't look like significant change in the weather until early February.


How can you say the weather won’t change until February. That’s a month away! I know these highs can be stubborn but not 6 weeks long surely.


I'm guessing, like everyone else on this thread or in the weather business.

Would it make you feel better to throw in some pseudo scientific weather terms? Maybe some unreadable charts? A smattering of foreign words?

To come back to the weather. There's a very small weather system in the North of France at the moment, it will make it to the Vosges, Jura, maye into the Savoie but it is not a game changer, maybe a few cms of fresh snow. After that, and looking at the long term weather forecasts, perhaps another system in about 7 to 10 days, again not a game changer. It looks as if things will get unsettled in early February - snow... rain even at first.

The general winter weather pattern in the French N.A. is for autumn storms to bring in the first snows, there will often then be high pressure over the winter months - end of December, Jan, early Feb then a return to more unsettled weather as spring comes. Last year was an exception to the rule with unsettled weather throughout winter, this year seems to be a return to normal.

As for highs - we've just had a drought in France with 8 months with virtually no rain, so a few weeks is nothing. Remember this is south-east France, settled weather is the norm.

Looking at skiing, the snow levels are above average above 2000 meters altitude (like last year). Below 1600 meters things are pretty marginal but it is cold so resorts can make snow to ensure the return to resort. If you are going to a resort with a substantial number of runs above 1600/1800 meters then things are fine at the moment. Slopes are very hard, but they usually are in the deep mid winter. I echo the advice of the rescue services to "wind your neck in" and maybe ski slopes easier than you are used to. I was in Valloire a couple of days ago and I think we only skied blues and reds (are there any blacks in Valloire?) and sunny aspects at that. There have been a lot of nasty accidents over Christmas.

If the weather stays anti-cyclonic the rain affected snow on shaded aspects (and even sunny slopes) will evolve back into powder as the snow turns into facets - it's a kind of magic. So you'll soon be able to find powder off piste. On south sector slopes there is some very good spring snow to ski.

Many resorts have most, if not all, of their runs open.

It is far from a disaster.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Thank god for the term snow-sure. So the British and the Dutch and all the other riff-raff can crowd the pistes and the bars and leave the good stuff for the rest of us.
snow conditions     
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Well, on the ground in Les Arcs, I certainly wouldn't describe conditions as spring skiing. No, there is no fresh snow, and most pistes, especially below 2000m, are very hard under any softer cover, and that gets scraped off to the side by the heavy traffic. But for us, this is that only week we could do this year due to school term dates and other commitments. So we'll make the most of it and try not to grumble. The wall to wall sunshine helps with that!

I do harbor fantasies of what we'll do the first season we're not bound to school holidays. Wait until a week before an off-peak week and book the resort with the best conditions. In my 20 years snowboarding, I've ridden real fresh powder less than a handful of times. In the meantime, I'll try not to break anything that would spoil this plan in the future.

GFS shows a tiny peak of precipitation for Friday/Saturday, so I'm clinging to that hope.
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engadin wrote:
@altaski8
To be honest, your remarks considering the list are fairly weak. It is an independent, unbiased research, it is the first and biggest research of it's kind. It took 10 to 12 years. 7.5 to 8 mln records (10mln by now) were analyzed for -LONG-TERM PATTERNS- with advanced data-science methods. It's main purpose is to show people that their gut feeling is prominent and persistent. Not easy to get rid of. You've proved that right.

I can talk all day about selective perspectives and from extensive knowledge, but in the end it doesn't hurt to bring solid research and data science to the table. I remember a comment from you earlier about your desire for more (reliable) data. If you want to challenge research methodology or data science then 'I'm your man'.

The research was conducted under my supervision. Mark Henry Gremmen (SkiWeather.eu)

Yes I like research and data. But in your case, it comes down to how you assign the relative weights of the criteria. In other words, which factors do you care about? If you arbitrarily combine the factors, the metric starts to lose meaning.

If someone tells me very specifically what they want to get out of a ski vacation, I can give them advice as to where to go. If they like sunshine, powder, lots of good-cruising or just not having brown dirt visible next to the pistes. But "snowsure" just leads to confusion because it conflates unrelated things. I've started to suspect that climatological information about the Alps is so hard to find because ski resorts are afraid that people will learn how little snow actually falls in many places.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
alr1970 wrote:


I do harbor fantasies of what we'll do the first season we're not bound to school holidays. Wait until a week before an off-peak week and book the resort with the best conditions. In my 20 years snowboarding, I've ridden real fresh powder less than a handful of times. In the meantime, I'll try not to break anything that would spoil this plan in the future.


You nailed it. Booking ski vacations in advance is insanity. Apparently many people do this a year in advance. Yet another reason to not have children and to not live on an island with virtually no good skiing. Sadly my wife forces me to agree to book trips at least a few weeks in advance although I resist strenuously.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@davidof,
Thanks for bringing some sanity ,
This New Years trip is proving to be better than last. Last year we endured huge amounts of Snow but equally of rain to a high level causing half the mountain to be shut most of the time and the many tourists forced onto a smaller amount of lifts I’m much happier with a fully opened mountain with sun .
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@altaski8, You are making a big fool out of yourself. You are not even taking yourself serious. I and fellow community members have given you enough input and things to think about. Your response is questionable and below-par. If you have questions; ask them and do not judge at the same time. Don't just guess or say something, anyhow. What is your obsession with the term 'snow-sure'? Do you understand my explanation, those of others and see the similarities? Do you understand when I am telling you we have done independent and thorough research? Can you give me a similar US-research in return? What cards do you have?

We have done a research in the US and we were surprised to see that the quality of the snow statistics was well below of that in Europe. There were very few snow report suppliers and those that are in place give very questionable input. In my opinion the snow reports in Europe are better, but you have to know where to to look.

Europe does a massive effort in climate research. Europe surpasses the US on every account in that respect. I won't mention the words 'Paris' or 'Trump'.
snow report     
 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:

It is far from a disaster.

@davidof, sage words.

Happy New Year when it comes everyone Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I am just a weather watcher not an expert of any sorts but what i am seeing is that starting on January 10, snow will be falling across the Alps. No big dumps but 5-10cm daily. Bigger storms come around 16th.

With the solid base in many higher resorts this could be just what the doctor ordered.

Happy New Year to all !!!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Ptspeak wrote:
I have until Friday to change or cancel a reservation at Vald'isere for early February. Is it overreacting to switch to the Arlberg? We fly into Geneva so it would be a longer transfer time.


Pt am I right in thinking you were in the same boat last year, worrying about zermatt, or am I confusing you with someone else?

Can I suggest you either wait to book last minute to see where conditions are best or if you must book the transatlantic leg get to a hub and then book further flights? I now only go last minute in order to get best conditions but I'm probably more flexible than most

Incidentally I have a pipe dream of doing similar in north america, visiting relatives in boston and toronto and then scooping off to somewhere with fresh powder for 3 days last minute when over there. Is that viable?
snow report     
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
altaski8 wrote:
Thank god for the term snow-sure. So the British and the Dutch and all the other riff-raff can crowd the pistes and the bars and leave the good stuff for the rest of us.


Unfortunately this just makes you sound like a massive snob.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
This lack of fresh snow is obviously due to brexit. Somehow it is our fault.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
8611 wrote:
Ptspeak wrote:
I have until Friday to change or cancel a reservation at Vald'isere for early February. Is it overreacting to switch to the Arlberg? We fly into Geneva so it would be a longer transfer time.


Pt am I right in thinking you were in the same boat last year, worrying about zermatt, or am I confusing you with someone else?

Can I suggest you either wait to book last minute to see where conditions are best or if you must book the transatlantic leg get to a hub and then book further flights? I now only go last minute in order to get best conditions but I'm probably more flexible than most

Incidentally I have a pipe dream of doing similar in north america, visiting relatives in boston and toronto and then scooping off to somewhere with fresh powder for 3 days last minute when over there. Is that viable?

2 years ago. And the snow basically sucked. My job requires scheduling vacation a year in advance and transatlantic flights from the southeastern US are quite expensive if you wait this late. A flight to Geneva in August was 550 usd and now would cost 1500. Also the European/British school holidays make lodging reservations challenging in mid to late February. People from The UK seem to favor chalet weeks, and that's great if you are traveling as a group. It will be fine I'm sure and regret voicing concerns here. 4 weeks is a long way off. I have a couple long weekends to the western US just in case.


As far as your visit here, I'd always recommend Utah, specifically Alta/Snowbird for fresh snow.
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I have a very simple recipe; for early-booked, early season skiing, I go high - usually Obergurgl or Val Thorens. In five of the last six years I have skied at Obergurgl in November, and been able to ski right down to the village each time. This year I was in VT the week commencing Dec 17 - great snow. These two resorts (albeit v different) are uber reliable. (I also tried Zermatt, last Dec. That was fun.)

Later in the season, I simply chose a resort where the snow happens to be good. Les Crosets was excellent last March. But I wouldn't dream of pre-booking low places like PDS before February - why take the risk? I always seem to get rained on in Morzine, even in January. Not fun.

I don't take chances when it comes to pre-booking my precious time for skiing.
snow conditions     
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
engadin wrote:
@altaski8, You are making a big fool out of yourself. You are not even taking yourself serious. I and fellow community members have given you enough input and things to think about. Your response is questionable and below-par. If you have questions; ask them and do not judge at the same time. Don't just guess or say something, anyhow. What is your obsession with the term 'snow-sure'? Do you understand my explanation, those of others and see the similarities? Do you understand when I am telling you we have done independent and thorough research? Can you give me a similar US-research in return? What cards do you have?

We have done a research in the US and we were surprised to see that the quality of the snow statistics was well below of that in Europe. There were very few snow report suppliers and those that are in place give very questionable input. In my opinion the snow reports in Europe are better, but you have to know where to to look.

Europe does a massive effort in climate research. Europe surpasses the US on every account in that respect. I won't mention the words 'Paris' or 'Trump'.


My problem with "snowsure" is that it tries to combine too many unique factors into a single metric. In the process, it leads the average person to confusion. Elevation, northerly exposure, and easterly latitude are good for snow preservation. But does that help you if snow is infrequent and depths are low? Well it depends on other factors... is the terrain mostly rocky or meadows? Do you like the piste or off-piste? Are we talking about January or April? Elevation also tends to improve snow-making conditions but it can also lead to wind scouring. And some people hate artificial snow. Some resorts get infrequent precipitation events, but when they do the amounts are significant. Other areas get frequent events but with generally lesser intensity. And of course there is a wide range of resort elevations, tree-line elevation, susceptibility to wind etc.

My point is that there are too many variables for such a simple evaluation. IMO it's much better to determine first what you like or want and then select the best resort to meet that criteria. In other words, determine which resort is most likely to satisfy that objective in any given season. Kitzsteinhorn glacier, die Tauplitz, and St. Anton are all relatively "snowsure." But that doesn't tell you anything about what makes those three areas so different... which is exactly what you need to know to select between them. Telling people that, for example, Val d'isere, Livigno, or Warth (in April) are "snowsure" is just going to plss them off some years if you don't tell them what to expect.

If you have a specific criteria that you would like evaluated regarding US ski resorts, I would be happy to offer my opinion. I am a long-time avid skier and amateur meteorologist.

I find weather forecasts and snow reports sorely lacking in Europe. In reality, conditions can change significantly from one ridge line to the next. But most reports treat it with a very broad brush. Real time reports of accumulated snowfall are almost entirely non-existent and extremely unreliable (no the tourist offices are not reliable sources for snow accumulations). There are automated networks but the sensors are sparsely distributed and data is difficult to find (or not even publicly available).

In the US, the National Weather Service (NWS), the avalanche services, and ski/weather forums give frequent, localized snow accumulation reports. The NWS also gives frequently updated, localized forecasts and discussions, including mountain weather. Automated weather station data and numerical model output is also easy to find and FREELY available (i.e., DON'T HAVE TO PAY!). In the US, snowfall climatology is well known and during/after snow events, information about where the most snow has fallen is readily available. I have lived in Germany for a while now, and my experience is that analogous services in Germany (DWD) are quite far behind.


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Tue 1-01-19 1:15; edited 2 times in total
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@engadin, here are a couple things I noticed with your research from a cursory read:
1) You penalize a low valley elevation which may be arbitrary depending on the layout of the mountain
2) You don't describe the QA procedure for snowfall measurements. Sunshine amount, exposure angle, wind scour, and several other factors significantly affect snowfall measurements. Inconsistency could cause large biases
3) By measuring snow depth AND temperature you seem to be double counting the affect of elevation, which would bias the evaluation in favor of high altitude resorts
4) Low nighttime temperatures are strongly influenced by radiative conditions and topographic features. So, for example, a reporting station in a location that experiences strong radiative cooling will get a better score even if this may not be widely representative or beneficial for snow conditions overall.
5) Fresh snow is more valuable to skiers than old snow. This significant factor does not seem to be adequately accounted for in the methodology
6) 10 years is considered a small sample size for climate research
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
The 18z GFS drops a strong mid-level low right through France on Jan. 9. That would be a nice change for western and southern areas. Not a lot of support right now from the other mid-range models but both the EC and CMC have upper level cutoffs meandering further west, so something to watch at least.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Interesting discussion between @engadin, and @altaski8, . IMO @engadin, does good job trying to bring objective data and research to table, however, like any peer reviewer would, @altaski8, highlights some very genuine concerns with the methodology used, and also emphasizes the obvious point- "snowsure" the word is not a scientific term, it is a very subjective concept and so its use here needs to be much better defined.

No need to personalize things. I assume this research has not been externally peer reviewed. Maybe take on some of @altaski8's points and actually revise this work? Also you make comments that European research far superior to US. Seems surprising. Can you substantiate that comment? Maybe best not to pass dogmatic comments like that if they can't be substantiated.
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HNY btw
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Happy New Year to you all!

A brief pause in the snow storms hitting Austria. Although much more to come from tomorrow till Sunday and much colder temperatures too, well below seasonal average.

Here’s a shot from the Saalbach webcams. Still well over a metre of fresh snowfall on its way.

And out next week potentially more snow and cold to come. This would again tend to favour the eastern end of the Alps.



Saalbach



Meanwhile here’s a good blog piece from LWD Tirol.

”Numerous trigger-sensitive snowdrifts above timberline. We recommend enormous restraint in steep terrain.

Caution:

Similar to 25.12.2018, the first day of the new year 01.01.2019 as "first fine-weather day" following a period of stormy snowfall is also an accident-prone day.”


https://avalanche.report/albina-web/blog/avalanche-warning-service-tirol.blogspot.com/9169676376988817461?lang=en

Currently little real prospect of a change to bring substantial fresh snow to the south and west. Whilst this pattern could persist all month no real reason to suggest it will at this stage.
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