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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@2waterford, @queenie pretty please, that 00Z GFS ensemble average does look better with lower temps and mostly dry. Some of the ensemble runs go high on temp and precip into Xmas, so I guess there's still a struggle playing out there.
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Météo France forecasting around 30cm for the Massif de L'Oisans until tomorrow morning above 1800m
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Still very warm for the second half of December. Zero iso was at 2700 meters in the Mont Blanc range yesterday but there was a foehn (which created a number of slabs). The last six Christmas' have been very warm according to Meteo France, which would correspond to a series of more or less poor starts to winter.

Today should see some snow down to 1300 meters in the French Alps.
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Interesting to see where that little area of low pressure is again situated.

We've already had snow flurries this morning, should settle in more early/mid-afternoon onwards according to various models.

Hopefully, we'll score another 20 - 30cm

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Bergfex has been very inconsistent for Mayrhofen forecasts over the Christmas period. Keeps changing the forecast from dry to dumping snow several times per day. Maybe one of the model experts on here can explain
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Certainly hasn’t felt like April in Austria today. Brrr.

Nor does it make much sense to cherry pick the milder weather in parts of the French Alps and then extrapolate them to make an inaccurate comparison with a mischaracterisation of last season to try to project what this season will turn out to be like from mid December. But there you go...


A beautiful put down, 10/10!!!
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@davidof wrote:
Still very warm for the second half of December. Zero iso was at 2700 meters in the Mont Blanc range yesterday but there was a foehn (which created a number of slabs).


amazing how localised the temps are - there has been snow lying in the village at Les Contamines (1100m) all week.
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@2waterford, Bergfex forecast from yesterday had Zell am See at plus 5 at resort level today, according to the webcams it's around minus 2 and the cannons are still blowing snow all the way down to resort, I've given up with forecasts haha.
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Heavy snow above Grenoble down to 1100 meters now, it is wet but at least it is white and not clear. Zero iso is around 1700 meters across the N.A. so fresh snow above 1400m should be good.
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Now snowing in Flumet at 1,000m...
http://m.webcam-hd.com/val-d-arly/front-de-neige

also (with live snowing pop-up vids) at Notre Dame:
http://m.webcam-hd.com/val-d-arly/ndb-mont-rond
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Plants starting to turn white (though not settling on the road) in St Gervais at 780m...
https://www.ski-saintgervais.com/en/h6-webcam-meteo

Beat that! Toofy Grin
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I've just moved the van down to the lower parking in case snow plough turns up late as the plan is first lifts, but that will depend on how much we get, and what lifts open.

There again we might only score 10 - 15 cm but certainly coming down far better than it was early afternoon.

Further Edit and taps been turned off Sad
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Snowing hard in 3Vs.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
notverygoodatskiing wrote:
@2waterford, Bergfex forecast from yesterday had Zell am See at plus 5 at resort level today, according to the webcams it's around minus 2 and the cannons are still blowing snow all the way down to resort, I've given up with forecasts haha.


It's probably a temperature inversion effect, I noticed it was -6C at 9am this morning in Zell at 750m, but +2C at the Schmittenhohe measuring station at 2000m...cold air can hang in the valleys with the milder air passing over the top...long may it last!! wink
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2waterford wrote:
queenie pretty please wrote:
@2waterford, temperatures around average for the time of year and largely dry. Grim???



Thank you. I did say I was looking at Bergfex.


I’m looking at Bergfex, Snow-Forecast, yr.no and Meteo Group and they all have milder temps than recent days and rain forecast for the valley (Saalbach) up until Tuesday.
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All to play for the Christmas week going by the latest GFS parallel FV3 6Z. Cold pushing further west will keep things interesting.
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@devilabit, for which area?
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kitenski wrote:
@devilabit, for which area?

Well there is some hope for all the Alps going by this run but obviously colder the further east you are. However its a vast improvement for the Western alps if it verifies, more runs needed.
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Rain / snow limit dropped lower than expected yesterday. Meant my rainy trip back from Carrefour in Sallanches ended up being a bit more hairy that anticipated. Glad to have the new proper winter tyres on, as it got very snowy on the road very quickly indeed. Village white in Les Carroz now.
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Mild spell coming up. Brief Christmas cool down still looking likely on 12z GFS. More so in the eastern Alps.




http://youtube.com/v/_c2wrwBptig
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@nozawaonsen, will it be a mild dry or wet spell? From a selfish POV I'm thinking specifically 3 valleys.
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The lebanon has picked up some Christmas snow

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@KennyEverett, after tomorrow looks fairly dry and increasingly sunny.

More generally 12z GFS FI very interesting...
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@KennyEverett,

More generally 12z GFS FI very interesting...


Interesting good or interesting bad snowHead snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, oh you tease.
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Morris at WePowder gives a good layman's analysis of the weekend's rollercoaster weather and dangles the prospect of a (small) Nordstau for Austria on the eve of Xmas??

https://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/262186

Bergfex seem to agree, they have 42cm forecast for the Kitzsteinhorn on Monday.

Just hoping there isn't too much rain at lower levels over the weekend! Sad
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Hmmm, so what will the on piste conditions be like below 1800m in the NW Alps after this weekend of rain???
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Neillp wrote:
Hmmm, so what will the on piste conditions be like below 1800m in the NW Alps after this weekend of rain???


Unfortunately, not very good. Icy after the refreeze. I reckon most pistes still complete, but some marginal. Not great for the Christmas hordes
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You know it makes sense.
All major medium range modeling looks pretty sickening for the next two weeks if you like snow. Very persistent longwave pattern shaping up. I really hope we start seeing cracks in the forecasted pattern.
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Yes northern and eastern areas might get a solid stau around Christmas. But right now that looks like it for a while.
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altaski8 wrote:
Yes northern and eastern areas might get a solid stau around Christmas. But right now that looks like it for a while.


4th Jan looks like a good setup on today's 12Z, but at 14 days out, it's a long way off!!
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Raining Sad Sad
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Yes, raining very hard this evening in the French Alps up to ~2300m.

Floods at 1800-1900m in the 3Vs.

First day of proper winter today...

Global warming is not going away.
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Some great looking charts starting to pop up now in FI as the models try to resolve the strat vortex being ripped apart. Possible vortex split on the para first week of Jan, and signs of a second warming around Jan 6th. The GFS Para 06z and 12z show cold and snow to the alps all week (first week of Jan)....just need to see some other models picking this up, but I expect there will be a lot of change soon to current endless high pressure outlook on ECM and GFS (old).
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Whitegold wrote:


Global warming is not going away.


don't, you'll wake the Snowheads climate change denier remainer trolls! Smile

From Meteo France:

Pluie-Neige 2500 m

I have to say, that is sub-optimal for the deepest of mid winter.
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@davidof,
Laughing Laughing
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@davidof, who are they? Or are you just making things up again?
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I have no idea why @davidof, would seek to link climate change denial with people who want to remain in the EU. Seems odd. Still less why you would try to push this idea on a weather forum.

To be honest it’s not a natural alignment, but there you go.

Nor why @davidof, would link to far right racist petitions claiming ignorance about what they were all about.

Puzzling.

But I will be quite clear to say that far right nonsense, racist parties, bullying and abuse, climate change denial and any fellow travellers are people I will have no time for. This is straightforward.

Ski well.
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@nozawaonsen, I'm with you. Yes global warming exists as does all that horrid other stuff, however this is a weather forum and I for one am interested in knowing what's happening with the weather for ski resorts around the world and value your input.
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I would have though the climate deniers are the same lunatic fringe who want to leave without a deal...........
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