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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

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@nozawaonsen, Sad
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Mmmmm road trip me thinks chasing the Retour D'Est, Tuesday, Wed to here Cool

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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Weathercam, five letter word starts with P?

Very jealous have fun! Toofy Grin
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Jealous but also very stoked for those of you booked in Western Italy, Southern France and parts of Switzerland -- Zermatt with pow should be great.

WePowder said there is potential for the Northern Alps to get hit just after Christmas, but it's speculative at best at the moment. Anyone have any insight on that? I'm not much of a Weather Jedi.
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AthersT wrote:
@Weathercam, five letter word starts with P?

Very jealous have fun! Toofy Grin


Pizza?
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Better 12z GFS. Starts to offer options for snow in northern Alps from Christmas.

Currently trying to snow in Vienna.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
My girlfriend's cat is enjoying hunting snowflakes at around 600m in Oberösterreich tonight:



Here in Tirol it's merely cold and cloudy.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Still nothing in this evening's 12z output that really suggests a fundamental shift, but clearly Italy and the margins will do well in the next few days.
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So tonight's 'event' is almost upon us. Cross fingers for Austria. I'd take a cosmetic layer across western Austria at this point. Looking great in the next couple of days for the lucky people in northwestern Italy.

Further out, the ECM 12z is holding firm on snow during 23rd-26th Dec, and has slightly upgraded snow chances for the northern Alps again:

- A sprinkling for most of Austria and Switzerland on the 23rd.
- Generally less for France, but at least delivers a white Christmas and a couple of inches to the northern French Alps on the 25th, as well as most of the north side.
- A further spell for Austria into Boxing Day.

Good to see after days of the GFS showing increasingly dry outcomes during Christmas.

DISCLAIMER: These are not predictions, but merely descriptions of what this particular run shows.


On a related note, here's a paragraph from an Accuweather preview of the weather in Europe/the North Atlantic over the Christmas period:

"Both of these potential storms will not just develop out in the Atlantic, but will be coming from the northern Pacific Ocean and traveling across North America over the upcoming days. It is once these systems are on land that we will get a slightly better picture of what is going to happen. Depending on each track across North America for these storms will determine how much influence the Azores high pressure has on their track in the North Atlantic Ocean, either deflecting their track towards western Iceland or towards the open waters north of Scotland. What will also play a big role is the ridge of high pressure that will be settled across much of eastern Europe. At the moment, this ridge looks to be pretty strong with at least a 1036 mb high pressure in place, which will deflect any storms trying to move eastward into northern Europe towards Iceland and the North Pole."

Point being, the storms we're looking at for the Christmas period are currently baby storms in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, which gives rise to a few thoughts:

- How cool that is.
- How funny it is to be worrying about predicted snowfall totals when the system supposedly bringing that snow has at this point barely been born, on the other side of the world.
- How insanely brilliant these weather models are for being able to get as close as they generally do get from a week out.

If you fancy checking out these storms following their predicted tracks from inception, you can do just that using the GFS Northern Hemisphere charts.
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@WellingtonBoot, just look at the forecast differentials for Serre Che, Abries Ristolas, St Veran, Pragialetto, Montgenevre, Prali and you'll see major differences in forecast accumulation over the next 48hrs that can still change!

They are all give or take within a couple of hours drive from where we are, we often see differences of 20-30cm from one valley to another within 10km radius.

So whilst storms might be brewing in the Pacific Ocean, it's total bollox as to what will eventually happen in the hills here!

So whilst you might be looking at your runs we here on the ground, far closer to where the action is / might be, are still not too sure where to head off to until it starts dropping out the sky rolling eyes
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Gran Montets Friday, Verbier Saturday and Courmayeur today. We had a lot of fun on some really nice pistes.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Weathercam, Hm, I think you may have completely missed the point I was trying to make? Unless you simply mean to reiterate?
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@Weathercam, +1
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Weathercam, -1

there, we're all square now....you are both right, it is pretty cool to learn where a storm might start, and even better where it might end up
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
18z is another run which starts to see the high pressure block come under pressure itself, with systems from the Atlantic starting to break through from Christmas. It's not a dramatic collapse, but if it were to happen it would mark a shift that would allow at least some snow into the northern Alps.
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Weather Underground is now forecasting snow in the northern Alps for Saturday -- Monday (12/24-12/26) with more on Wednesday. Nothing dramatic -- few inches here and there -- but I'll take it. Any chance this could swell should the systems coming across the Atlantic develop into something larger?
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Just seen a picture of it snowing in Soll tonight. Happy days. Hopefully start of things to come.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@ArlbergMeister, it's possible of course, but too far out too tell at this stage and nothing to suggest that at this point. A step in the right direction perhaps though.
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Quote:

@ArlbergMeister, it's possible of course, but too far out too tell at this stage and nothing to suggest that at this point. A step in the right direction perhaps though.

@nozawaonsen Yes, a move in the right direction for sure!
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Radar suggests all the snow is getting caught on the Nordstau, and western Switzerland is getting some surprise snowfall - will be interesting to see how that develops. Still desperately hoping for some sign that it's going to clamber over and snow on the inner alpine Tirol. Lech and the Arlberg might do OK here, along with more northern Austrian areas.
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@langball, Awesome.
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Now we are kind of starting to see what a January might look like. It's looking like a month of Mediterranean lows, definitely favouring the Southern Alps. Both CFS and EPS are tagging along with this.

This is not a forecast for one particular day, more one for all of January. The further south the better perhaps.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Currently snowing lightly in Tignes Very Happy
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And in Les Masses - it may not be much but it does lift the spirits!!!
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Woken up to about 5cm in Schladming village! Hopefully a fair bit more up on the mountain?..
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Snowing in Bourg d'Oisans. Welcome sight Happy
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And snow on the roads and roofs in La Plagne 1800 snowHead
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
A dusting in VT this morning as well - it's very welcome Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Dusting of snow in Les Arcs, and it continues with the snow equivalent of drizzle. Wasn't there some chat last week about snow around the 19th?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Chadspurs40 wrote:
I'm going for the 16th to 19th. Snow is coming. Based on sheer bloody optimism. Tell me I'm wrong on the 20th.. wink

I knew it.. ! kept saying the 19th would be the day..!! Laughing Laughing Laughing
A welcome sight to see some white stuff on the Webcam's in the 3v...
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These are the webcams we'll be keeping an eye on over the next couple of days to determine if a road trip is on the cards - not so much the St Veran one but the Abries one.

And suppose better make sure the resort is open rolling eyes

Though think I'd prefer skinning Cool
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Light dusting in Meriblel village this morning.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
rob@rar wrote:
Dusting of snow in Les Arcs, and it continues with the snow equivalent of drizzle.
Looks like Les Arcs is on the far western edge of the snow, which I assume is falling in the 'retour d'est' pattern. Looking across the Tarentaise to the western side of the valley it doesn't look like any snow has fallen there, but on the eastern side of the valley, where Les Arcs is, the ground is definitely white from the dusting of snow. Often with retour d'est snow Les Arcs doesn't get anything, so perhaps a little bit of weather has crept over the main alpine ridge to give us a dusting here. Wonder if the top end of Val d'Isere is getting more at the moment?
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Still trickling down here in 1800.
I watch a handful of weather sites avidly.
Some had snow for tonight and tomorrow, and all had it going cold - none had snow for today, and many had sun with clouds.
Seems they all had to do a sudden about turn: now they're all listing snow since 0500, with the temperature going up!
So much for all those models and computers - i'll be following Chadspurs40 from now on. Toofy Grin
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Love some of the pics from the Webcams at the moment!
I am going to be away for a little bit, so I will explain my view on the 24-27th Dec period


EC likes the 24-25th from the arm of a passing low to the North of Britain.
GFS likes the 25-26th with a low a little closer to the Alps.
Both have widespread falls throughout the Alps from the North.
EC likes another snow event from the North on the 27th morning.
All in all, I think some snow will fall in this period, chances arguably better in the North.
When I am back, I will look beyond that, into the new year.


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Mon 19-12-16 10:54; edited 1 time in total
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From around the 12 Dec (random quotes, sorry if I forgot any)

> meteox going for what looks like a decent amount of snow starting early hours 19th

> Isn't that just the Southern Alps (and Pyrenees) that are affected by a low going across the Med as it bounces under the blocking high, could also bring a top up to Val d'Isere and the Italian side of la Ros ?

and 16th

> With a bit of luck they'll (alpe d'Huez) get a dusting of snow (some talk of 10-20cm) in the 20-25th period which will make the man made much more skiable and at least turn the mountains white


l'Alpe d'Huez this morning

and close to Palmyra at the T4 airbase - hope they have some antifreeze in the diesel



Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Mon 19-12-16 11:01; edited 3 times in total
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We have probably known this low was coming for the last week...
Everyone was pretty conservative with the falls though.
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Jellybeans1000 wrote:
We have probably known this low was coming for the last week...
Everyone was pretty conservative with the falls though.


But like I said the actual accumulations will differ widely - and that is really what you can't forecast.

The Genoa Low / Retour D'Est or whatever you want to call this low - is known for it's "micro climate" characteristics.

I've now been in the vicinity of this low twice and have seen how conditions can differ drastically from one valley to another, as the low can stall over one mountain and let loose all it's precipitation, whilst elsewhere just gets a dribble!
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lol - yes that was me

meteox going for what looks like a decent amount of snow starting early hours 19th
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Weathercam wrote:


I've now been in the vicinity of this low twice and have seen how conditions can differ drastically from one valley to another, as the low can stall over one mountain and let loose all it's precipitation, whilst elsewhere just gets a dribble!


It is the same issue with the Atlantic weather systems. Exterior ranges such as the Beaufortain can be blitzed and there can be half as much snow in Tignes (interior ranges) and barriers like the Col du Lauteret can completely block the Southern Alps from these N-W storms. (basically rain shadow, the weather system sheds moisture when pushing over the mountain ranges leaving less precipitation for the next valley). Fortunately for the Alps there is the Mediterranean which means that both sides of the range should pick up snowfall during an average season.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Mon 19-12-16 11:16; edited 1 time in total
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