 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Scary, fascinating, kind of depressing. If you are asking yourself, is this a good idea. It probably isn't. If in doubt, dack out.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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fatbob, thanks for the link. Choked.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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With no pun intended on any level. That chilled me to the bone. Having tried unsuccessfully to resuscitate someone I knew too, I know it haunts you for a long time.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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An incredibly moving story. So tragic.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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<Shudder>
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A brilliantly written account of something that sounds horrific.
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The key bits are on pages 8 and 9, where Megan tries to explain how the group of experienced skiers could come to ignore warning signs and their own misgivings - a group without a leader can be dangerous. Lessons well worth remembering.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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That makes pretty somber reading ..............
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Well written, vivid account of a horrible event. We all think we "know" the mountains but nature has a tendency to re write the book.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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fatbob, Scary and I wonder how much worse the story would have been with less experienced skiers carrying less avalanche equipment. Two quotes leaped out at me.
The first:
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| In a group, you feel less accountable for making decisions |
Following the expert (or the local) is not always the most sensible thing to do. Particularly with enthusiasts.
Which leads me on to:
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| the avalanche doesn’t care about what you got away with last time |
Lucky once <> Lucky twice
Nice post.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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fatbob, Pedantica, Layne,
It's very well written - and looks at the rise of concern for WHY people in groups act the way they do, when they would act differently solo or in a small group. This was raised in a couple of British ski mags last month. In the posted story this caught my eye:
'...It was nearly noon on Sunday, February 19, 2012, clear and windless after two days of stormy weather. We were in the Tunnel Creek drainage, a 3,000-vertical-foot swath descending southward to Washington’s Highway 2. Twenty-six inches of snow had fallen in the past 48 hours....'
This would be one of those mornings where guides I know get up with alarm bells ringing. Storms bring windslab. I wake on such days and relish the silence and the thought of steep and deep. And then I think - which direction has the wind been in? (avoid lee slopes). What condition was the base when the snow fell? (rime layer will give a heap of unadhered powder with a block base - nasty). Then I check the meteo. Then I check the detail of the avalanche warnings. Then I look at the slope on the first lift up. Then I check with the pisteurs in the middle station. Then I look for people I know and see where they are headed. And on some days I will sigh and wait 48 or more hours since the last fall, but know that I know some places which will still be untracked a couple of days later, even if they are few and far between.
This story sounds horrible, with features that I fear. I may be at 2000m climbing, but an incident 1000m above me could bring something down. I try to know where the seracs are, I try to read and listen to others regarding which slopes look fine around you but are exposed to risks generated way above you, perhaps over a ridge or a number of ridges. As one might put it '....you have to work very very hard to stay this lucky....'
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Does anyone have examples of the lists that are mentioned??
Researchers decided that the so-called human factors—familiarity, social pressures, and the expert halo (in which the experienced believe that their expertise will keep them safe)—were more to blame than previously thought. So instructors began teaching people to use checklists, like airline pilots, to mitigate those human factors
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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kitenski, the Munter 3x3 is a pretty common one:
http://www.monosar.org/safety_article_avalanche_risk_reduction_method.html
Avalanche forecasting here is pretty non-existent, we get warnings when it's particularly bad and there is a relatively new avalanche observation site on the Met Office website so you can see activity that has been seen over the last seven days. You have to do a lot more looking at the weather and making best guesses then paying a lot of attention when you get out to places. As well as talking to people who live locally!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Personally I think the 'Expert Halo' is the thing to take away from this sad tale.
Jonpim, Thats a fair point about the group being 'leaderless' by the nature of the group being made up of people who, in different scenarios, would probably all have qualified as being leaders of an off-piste group. Had there been more inexperienced people in the group, perhaps those with experience would have been more attuned to the risk around them.
It's interesting that both the writer had misgivings about the size of the group, and that 2 members of the group split to take an alternate route over their concerns but neither expresses those concerns to the wider group.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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A tragic tale but well written and a quote I think makes a good point is
“because the avalanche doesn’t care about what you got away with last time.”
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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My main takeaway is group "herd" mentality and the need to not be afraid to be the person who bottles out.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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A sobering read. Thanks for the link fatbob. I seem to remember reading something about this incident in a (fairly) recent issue of Powder too I think?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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fatbob, Thanks for sharing this! It is very well written and definitely highlights some risks that I haven't really thought about before. Going with experienced locals takes your mind of the risks sometimes and it shouldn't happen...
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
My main takeaway is group "herd" mentality and the need to not be afraid to be the person who bottles out.
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Indeed. The NWAC report into the incident is here, which is worth reading in full.
http://www.nwac.us/media/uploads/documents/accidents/2011_2012/Preliminary_Tunnel_Creek_Avalanche_Accident_2-19-2012.pdf
I dont't have much to add other than to stress the importance of using something like the 3x3 method in tandem with the reduction method and sticking to it. As pointed out earlier, that they took a bad decision is obvious from the fact that 3 of them died. There's no point labouring over that and someone may well dissect my last moments on the internet going "why the hell did he do that?". What is more interesting is why the group ignored the multiple obvious red flags and the article gives a worryingly clear insight into why that was.
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| fatbob wrote: |
| My main takeaway is group "herd" mentality and the need to not be afraid to be the person who bottles out. |
I think also the need to not be afraid to communicate about it - I guess there was some element of the people new to the group not wanting to question the 'expertise' of those who knew the area, maybe worried about offending them..?
Very moving story, especially:
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| “Over time it has settled in,” Anne told us. “All of the goals Chris and I had—it’s hard to believe that’s never going to be a part of my life. Every day, I try to figure it all out, try to make a new plan.” |
Just thinking about leaving someone/being left in that state makes me shudder.
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The original article is well written and interesting.
Experience and training no doubt help, but then if you have them you'll be out there more.... You may be able to reduce your per-run risk, but it's not an exact science. The only way you can be "safe" is to stay home.
Personally I'm not keen on "leaders" as a concept. There are numerous examples where guides have led guests to their deaths. I think each individual is responsible.
Quite a lot of people die driving to the slopes. Anyone know the relative risks?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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In a rush at the moment so have only skim-read the article & posts in the thread - an interesting article read relative to all this is Ian McCammons research on Heuristic traps - google McCammon heuristic trap (other search engines exist) - explains quite well the reasons why we can ignore all the red flags there may be..
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Bruce Tremper's book has an excellent chapter on the dynamics of group decision making and the individual vs the herd. Really opened by eyes that this was also a part of avalanche science.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Really good article, moving more than anything. Anytime I'm in that situation, that far off piste, I'm already relying on someone else's expertise anyway (i.e., a guide) and I'm really happy to say that any guide I've ever used has been ultra cautious. If you didn't realise how potentially dangerous it was I suspect you'd be disappointed with them.
As such what I took from the article was more emotional, a reminder that if any of these guys had thought for a second that they were risking leaving their loved ones or kids behind them they wouldn't have gone near the run. Not a bad thought to keep in our minds when we're up there ourselves.
I play a lot of poker which obviously involves a lot of risk / reward analysis, albeit with rather less at stake. In poker a player who plays every hand really hard is a bad player, who you just have to lie in wait for to skin. So when you're playing you try to remember that it isn't so much individual hands, or even individual games that matter, its the long run, the bigger picture.
This isn't a bad approach to the mountains either. The climbing equivalent is that getting to the top is optional, getting down is mandatory. So if we're in a position where we're tempted to charge and charge and charge, and throw caution to the wind, think of the bigger picture. And if that means walking away from something, and possibly having to wonder how it might have been (or hear at the bottom from your gloating buddies about how it was) but definitely being able to ski again elsewhere, and enjoy all the other good things in life, then that is always the right decision.
Thanks for posting Fatbob. Incidentally I get Outside delivered to my door every month and I never saw this article, and I regularly come across articles online that I love but didn't see in the printed issue either! Wtf??? 
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meh, good link - there's a fair bit of bed time reading sprouting from that i think!
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| philwig wrote: |
| Personally I'm not keen on "leaders" as a concept. There are numerous examples where guides have led guests to their deaths. I think each individual is responsible. |
I take it you mean people taking the "leader role" who aren't qualified leaders acting in a leader capacity. (e.g. within a group of freinds).
I'm unsure about this. I often go skitouring on the weekends with an Austrian group of friends and meet up with English friends for longer multi-day trips. In the Austrian group one member took lead role and everyone was happy as everyone thought he had the most experience. During one of the trips the group had a long conversation about mountain experience and it became clear that our Austrian "leader" did not have more experience than the others. From that point on the ski tours weren't so smoothly led as his decisions were often questioned. Even though my Austrian friends have spent more time in the mountains than I, they have spent a lot less time with qualified guides seeing how a group is professionaly led. Even I started to question his decisions. Likewise the English group were fine when we hired a qualified guide but again my English friends have been skiing longer than I and without a defined guide there was no clear leader and firm direction but a lot of opinions, discussion and less responsibility for risk. With the English group without a guide we ended up setting out too late in the morning and set off a mini-slide.
My current view is that everyone should be responsible but one person should take the lead. The leader can be rotated between the people in the group who have adequate experience for the tour in hand. (i.e. Most experienced for difficult tours, easier tours for people with less experience but wanting to gain experience.)
Offpiste / powder skiing is so much fun that we often become intoxicated with adrenalin and nobody wants to be a a party pooper, especially the less experienced. One of the "main drinkers" still needs to stay sober and keep the party going while making sure the group still sees sense. This is generally the role of a professional mountain guide/off piste ski teacher, but if the group are skiing as friends someone needs to take up this role.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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