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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
RetroBod, not sure I'd go as far as to describe it as an awesome event, but it should bring some fresh snow. However, it does look to be focussed on the northern side of the Alps at present. Some snow would I imagine push across into Aosta valley mind you.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Meteo France avalanche forecast is looking at 50 cms in the Beaufortain by the end of tomorrow. Not that awesome, by the standards of this year.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
pam w, still nice though! Very Happy And as you suggest there have certainly been seasons when that would have been an epic stand alone event. Just that this season in the northern Alps has seen good snowfall arriving on a fairly regular basis so far. Hope there's some around in a month or so!!!
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Quote:

Hope there's some around in a month or so!!!

indeed - I hope to be able to get some skiing in before the end of the season. You too?
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Snowing heavily in Les Carroz now, 18.26 local, and Meteo.Fr gives a large red G warning for grele, hail, which in this context looks like a blizzard to me! They also give a bit of sun in the morning which suits us.
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Looking cold all the way through to mid month at least.

Here's this evening's ECM at+240



That's showing the anomaly against the average. GFS ensembles going colder than average pretty much all the way through to 21 February.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Snow levels in Swiss Alps (especially to north and west) holding up very nicely. Many areas over 150% of average for time of year.

http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/schneekarten/hsm/index_EN
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Hi we are going to Vallnord (Arinsal Pal Arcalis) beginning of March, prob would have prefered slightly better variety of ski slopes but because of the group we are going with the ski coaching my 9 year old son and myself will receive will be v v good. (though what I have been told of Arcalis that might be good fun).

Anyway been resisting looking at snow conditions etc as theres nothing you can do about it, but gave in to temptation and had a look today. Snow depths are incredible compared to the last 3 years - snow forecast seems to be predicting more snow for the next 6 days and pretty cold temps as well - do you think they are pretty close to the mark?

If so looks like we are pretty much certain of a very good snow base whatever the conditions when we go which is all you can really ask for.
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Garethb, Well I live a couple of valleys West of there and the snow depth from the automatic EDF stations is ranging from 3.2 to 5.8m... So I think you are going to be fine. There is even talk that our village might get evacuated as the snow defenses are full. Admittedly being a little further West (Atlantic) and a tad higher than Vallnord we tend to get a little more but It wont be much different over there.
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in garbure we trust, Its quite amazing the amount of snow you have had! and the pics I just have seen in the pyrenees thread on here are amazing. I think Vallnord has had less, supposedly Arcalis 200/270cm though theres forecast another 20/30 apparently today and tonight. If the forecasting is accurate on snow forecast you guys are in for a lot more over the next week.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
pam w, still nice though! Very Happy And as you suggest there have certainly been seasons when that would have been an epic stand alone event. Just that this season in the northern Alps has seen good snowfall arriving on a fairly regular basis so far. Hope there's some around in a month or so!!!


Do you know when you'll be able to get back on skis?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Having picked it up then dropped it GFS is swinging back towards further snow in the Alps around 11/12 February.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Looking at the zoomed out view (based on the 12z GFS) you can see how Western and Central Europe are definitely cooler than average.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

And combine that with wetter than average particularly on parts of the eastern Alps and Pyrenees.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

Do you know when you'll be able to get back on skis?


before the end of the season, I hope. snowHead It's going fine. Walking without crutches for the first time today. snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
This looks nuts for the southern Dolomites....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1246_ens.png
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
Having picked it up then dropped it GFS is swinging back towards further snow in the Alps around 11/12 February.


And getting consistent support for a big dump now Madeye-Smiley

Arriving in PSV on Sunday and it looks like the big guns will need to be packed now. (Oh yes) Toofy Grin
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pjd, yes GFS is really pushing for heavy snow in the Dolomites (and into Carinthia) from 11 to 14 February. A nice Valentine's present. I think the op is probably overdoing it a bit, but it still looks heavy.



Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 10-02-13 22:57; edited 2 times in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The Pyrenees has been blitzed again. Heavy snow and high winds have closed quite a few resorts today, and the risk of avalanche is 5/5. Baqueira Beret has reported a whopping 1 metre of snow yesterday, most other resorts have recieved at least 50cm on top of enormous snow depths already. I think that Cauterets that two days ago had the most snow of any across the globe (5.5 metres) will have easilly surpassed the 6 metre mark.

More snow to come - this really is a crazy season.

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Quote:

Walking without crutches for the first time today. snowHead


That's great!! It sounds really quick, good on you. snowHead snowHead snowHead (don't push it too much and risk hurting yourself further though)
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nozawaonsen wrote:
pjd, yes GFS is really pushing for heavy snow in the Dolomites (and into Carinthia) from 11 to 14 February. A nice Valentine's present. I think the op is probably overdoing it a bit, but it still looks heavy.



Is that showing heavy snow into the pyrenees as well?
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Garethb wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
pjd, yes GFS is really pushing for heavy snow in the Dolomites (and into Carinthia) from 11 to 14 February. A nice Valentine's present. I think the op is probably overdoing it a bit, but it still looks heavy.



Is that showing heavy snow into the pyrenees as well?


For the Western Pyrenees yes it is!!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Will this bring the glaciers back to life in the Pyrenees !!! Shock
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Interesting SLF chart showing an index of avalanche activity so far this season.



Quite a significant period of dry avalanches last weekend.
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GFS has rowed back from some of the more extreme output for the start of next week, but it still looks pretty snowy in the Pyrenees and Italy, albeit backed slightly west. That could shift back and forth a bit in the coming runs.

Temperatures, currently cold across the Alps are heading back towards seasonal average from mid month, though no sustained mild spell rather what you would expect for mid February.
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HISTALP has put out it's assessment of the Austrian climate for 2012 (over the year, not just the winter). The headline charts can be seen here.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/dokumente/klima/dok_news/dok_histalp/klimareihen-2012

For much of the Alpine region it's showing a wetter than average and warmer than average year based on long term trends.
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Anyone got a steer on where the wiggles are taking us from the end of the week? Seem to be dancing around the average like a group of teenagers at the youth club disco. Can you see past the handbags or is it all in the lap of FI?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

For much of the Alpine region it's showing a wetter than average and warmer than average year based on long term trends.

that figures. I don't recall feeling really cold any time last winter, and some of it was positively tropical. Summer and autumn were warmish, too - very pleasant, and some of the weather in January this year was positively spring-like too.
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[quote="pam w"]
Quote:

I don't recall feeling really cold any time last winter

Shocked

http://france.meteofrance.com/france/actu/archives/2012/2012?page_id=15911&document_id=26340&portlet_id=90230
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Skiing in Ischgl and at home in Lenggries in -25c temperatures last January felt pretty cold to me.
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Yeah the first week in Feb was very cold last year; -23 at La Grave base, -26 at top of L2A. That's cold. Unless you come from Siberia
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen, I wasn't skiing in that very cold period Little Angel and it was quite short, IIRC.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pam w, I know you don't do half term but 2012 was glacial. I saw -18C at village level in Chatel and our friends Volvo estate (if ever a car should handle the cold it's that one) froze it's diesel!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Cold is fine it just needs to stop snowing! Our village was evacuated today (French Pyrenees), its nuts, it just hasnt stopped for weeks. There is 7m of lying snow in the cirque de Lys and just over 6m above Bareges. When does the gfs see it swinging to clear skies in the South?
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Quote:

2012 was glacial

nozawaonsen was quoting an authoritative source in saying it was warmer than average across much of the Alps but that, of course, mean there weren't glacial bits.
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in garbure we trust, just read about that on another thread. Must bookmark it for those dopes who sometimes insist there's no such thing as too much snow. wink
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The stats for 2012 were for the whole year not just winter. The first half of February 2012 had two weeks of exceptionally cold weather.

Looks like more snow, overnight in the Pyrenees and again on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Currently looks like a calmer period to follow.
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Quote:

The stats for 2012 were for the whole year not just winter

yes, my comments related to the year as a whole too. One day in August in Chamonix it was over 40 degrees in the valley and even walking higher up it was a bit too hot for comfort.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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Massive amount overnight in Annecy, and still falling. I won't be literally digging my car out like I was 2 days ago in La Tania, but it's going to need a fair bit of brushing!
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Both ECM and GFS have temperatures rising by the end of this week (though there will be some cold temperatures between now and then).

Beyond that there's a bit of a split in the operational runs with GFS wanting to take the second half of the month warmer than average, whilst ECM heads cooler than average.
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Mr Piehole wrote:
Massive amount overnight in Annecy, and still falling. I won't be literally digging my car out like I was 2 days ago in La Tania, but it's going to need a fair bit of brushing!


I take it back. It's axle deep around all the cars on my road. Stricken vehicles wheelspinning all over the place. Shovels at the ready.
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