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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Perfect weather being forecast for opening of World Champs in Schladming, with 30-40cms expected by Monday.
http://www.wetter.at/wetter/news/Ski-WM-Perfektes-Wetter-zur-Eroeffnung/93099060
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Mr Piehole, Having never really had a transfer day in any heavy snow, Im travelling on Saturday - Geneva to Les Gets - what should I realistically be expecting travel wise. Got a private minibus transfer. btw travelling with kids, so best be prepared i suppose.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Expect to land in Zurich for a kickoff.
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Mr Piehole, mostly rain below 2000m
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Well that really would be a nightmare.
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red 27 wrote:
Mr Piehole, mostly rain below 2000m


Great news.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Mr Piehole, although as a student of these threads you'll know that I just pass the time by making stuff up while waiting for the real weathermen to tell us what will actually happen, right?

I'm right about half the time
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red 27 wrote:
I'm right about half the time


the words of an expert I think.
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jubnut wrote:
Mr Piehole, Having never really had a transfer day in any heavy snow, Im travelling on Saturday - Geneva to Les Gets - what should I realistically be expecting travel wise. Got a private minibus transfer. btw travelling with kids, so best be prepared i suppose.


Prepared for what? You're very unlikely to have anything to worry about. The roads are ploughed regularly, all transfer vehicles have winter tyres AND chains plus drivers used to driving in far worse conditions than you'll get on the way to Les Gets (on the road up to Avoriaz for example). All you're likely to experience is a slightly slower drive due to reduced visibility, the part of the journey from Taninges to Les Gets might be a tad slow in particular. Thing is, if companies offering transfers to ski-resorts were particularly flummoxed by snow they'd be in a spot of bother.
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red 27 wrote:
Mr Piehole, mostly rain below 2000m


Not on Saturday, your looking at the snow line dropping overnight Friday to below 1000m, not sure it will be as low as 400m (Geneva airport), but it will get colder by Sunday (though less likely to be snowy in the west by then).
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nozawaonsen, right - ta. Exciting...
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Is this thread losing it steam or are the weather gurus all on hoilday?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Chris Brookes, for reasons beyond my control it's actually rather tricky to type at present. Normal service will resume...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Chris Brookes, for reasons beyond my control it's actually rather tricky to type at present. Normal service will resume...

I hope you get better rather soon Smile
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+1! Was afraid to ask, but we are missing you! Here's hoping for a speedy return to typing and skiing for you!
Very Happy
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 Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, hope you're OK soon (and not just for the forecasts wink ).
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Extracts from this evening's SLF update.

"During [Friday] night the snowfall level will drop from 1500 down to about 1000 m.

Fresh snow

Northern flank of the Alps, Valais, northern Grisons, 10 to 20 cm, from place to place on the northern flank of the Alps and in the westernmost Lower Valais as much as 30 cm

Remaining regions, just a few centimeters

On Saturday in the northern barrier regions of the Alps, intense and heavy precipitation is anticipated. On Sunday the precipitation in northern regions is expected to slacken off temporarily and some intermittent bright intervals appear during the course of the day. Amidst strong velocity northerly winds, temperatures will drop. In southern regions it will turn increasingly sunny as of Saturday, accompanied by strong northerly winds. The danger of dry avalanches is expected to increase far and wide. In northern regions, danger level 4 (high) could be reached from region to region over the course of the day on Saturday. Full depth snowslides continue to be possible."
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Further out the second week of February is looking... Cold...
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nozawaonsen, a very timely post.

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=97255
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Chris Brookes wrote:
Is this thread losing it steam or are the weather gurus all on hoilday?


I didn't realise "nozawaonsen" wasn't well. I'll try & help out and post some info when I can.

Below forecast issued this morning from the Salzburg region Avalanche centre:

Forecast:
Tomorrow, Saturday, fog and heavy snowfall, particularly in the northern barrier regions. The wind will slacken off and shift to northwesterly. Temperature at 2000 m: minus 3 dropping to minus 10 degrees; at 3000 m. dropping from minus 8 to minus 16 degrees. Expected amounts of snowfall by Sunday morning: 40-70 cm, comparatively the least snowfall is anticipated in the Niedere Tauern and in the Lungau.


The Niedere Tauern covers a large (if not all) part of the SKI Amade region including Schladming.


The ensembles are showing a lot of snow over the Weekend in the French & Swiss Alps along with most of Austria. Also more snow to come between the 5th and 8th of February. And looking cold right through to mid February.
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Big snowfalls forecast for parts of the northern French alps tonight and tomorrow - half a metre in the Beaufortain according to Meteo France's avalanche assessment. Could be a messy sort of a transfer day tomorrow. More later in the week. Everybody driving up to resorts better have snowchains.
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pam w,good Freezing level?
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Meteo France suggesting more than a metre in places above 2000m (taken from the Mont Blanc forecast). Snow line down to 500m in the morning, 400m by afternoon.
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A colder than average first half of February looks likely.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

And for the northern Alps a wetter than average first week.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Get the motor running...



Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sat 2-02-13 9:48; edited 2 times in total
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http://www.zamg.at/medien/static/bilder/jan_2013_niederschlag-abweichung_zamg.jpg

The link above shows the % of precipitation in Austria during January. Generally wetter in the east and average or drier in the west.

The month as a whole was milder, wetter and cloudier than average (though clearly that masks some colder weather at times).

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/rueckblick-jaenner-mild-feucht-trueb
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Very heavy snow all day in the Central Pyrenees, with violent wind. There is a weather warning for the South West stating that there may be a tempete which generally produces damaging gusts. Colder tomorrow with winds backing off slowly.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Report here from Meteo France on general snowcover, as of 29 January (before the latest big falls). http://france.meteofrance.com/france/actu/actu?portlet_id=90136&document_id=27334

Far above average in much of the Pyrenees, above average in the southern Alps and well above average (30 - 50% above) in much of the Northern Alps.

Truly an epic season so far - and more falling now, and on the way next week. snowHead
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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from http://lawine-steiermark.at/ "Since yesterday along the northern Alps are up to 45cm fell in the Tauern to 30cm and from Zirbitzkogel to Koralpe up to 25cm of fresh snow."
That will do nicely thanks, more forecast for tomorrow.
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You know it makes sense.
Milk Corbum wrote:
jubnut wrote:
Mr Piehole, Having never really had a transfer day in any heavy snow, Im travelling on Saturday - Geneva to Les Gets - what should I realistically be expecting travel wise. Got a private minibus transfer. btw travelling with kids, so best be prepared i suppose.


Prepared for what? You're very unlikely to have anything to worry about. The roads are ploughed regularly, all transfer vehicles have winter tyres AND chains plus drivers used to driving in far worse conditions than you'll get on the way to Les Gets (on the road up to Avoriaz for example). All you're likely to experience is a slightly slower drive due to reduced visibility, the part of the journey from Taninges to Les Gets might be a tad slow in particular. Thing is, if companies offering transfers to ski-resorts were particularly flummoxed by snow they'd be in a spot of bother.


Sorry to come to this thread a tad late, due to being in les menuires snowHead more on that in another post. jubnut i hope you made les gets ok yesterday, the weather was thankfully less severe than expected, meteo france were saying not just mauvais temps, but grands mauvais temps Shocked and at one point had upped the snow possibility to 70 to 100 cm (yes, centimetres).

Even with the less severe weather it took us over 5 hours to get from les menuires to chambery. But the snow at lower levels never really materialised thankfully. (sorry, those of you skiing at lower levels Twisted Evil )

Milk Corbum I admire your optimism, but life does not always flow so smoothly even in the experienced alps. It once took us 28 hours to get from Geneva to La Plagne in a TO coach, via a night in Macot salle des fetes. the tignes/val d'isere people didnt get there till tuesday...... So when they forecast bad weather it is worth thinking of contingencies. On the aforementioned la plagne trip, when the TO dumped everyone outside the annecy McD for the unnecessary comfort stop (how small is some peoples bladder?) we bombed round the adjacent Casino and spent a very pleasant evening with a large roasted chicken, a bag of salad and 3 bottles of wine....
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Chris Brookes, for reasons beyond my control it's actually rather tricky to type at present. Normal service will resume...


Ahh, so it was an upper limb injury? Hope you're healing up ok. I managed to partly remove the tip of my thumb yesterday trying to get the chains ( which did not fit the hire car properly Evil or Very Mad ) off our rental car, so the trip back from the airport was punctuated by a visit to A&E for them to "fix it". very minor I expect to yours though.
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So looks like things are cooling down but does anyone have a call for mid-feb onwards yet? And yes, I do know its in FI!! Just interested in the trends?
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nozawaonsen, i am heading to Aspen on the 18th Feb - any cnce of a forecast update? Thanks
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RetroBod, some signs apparently in longer term models (ECM 32 day) of possible height rises towards Scandinavia around mid month. That would suggest continuation of colder than average temperatures, but obviously a long way out and very subject to change.

Anything beyond mid month I'd be very dubious about at this stage.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
[b]

Anything beyond mid month I'd be very dubious about at this stage.


Thanks for your reply. Hope your recovery is speeding on!
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Definitely a cold outlook this morning.

Here's the Chamonix ensembles.



05/06 February brings snowfall and this morning's GFS output suggests further substantial snowfall early next week (mind you that's a lot more uncertain at this stage). In general favouring the northern and western end of the Alps.



Before that next weekend currently looks very cold (-35C at 2000m overnight) and relatively clear.

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nozawaonsen, gfs spike on the 11th seems out on its own.

Does that have any support yet?
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hedley wrote:
nozawaonsen, gfs spike on the 11th seems out on its own.

Does that have any support yet?


You have pretty much answered your own question in your first sentence.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen, saw the wiggles for Chamonix - awesome event on its way no doubt. Would it be accurate to use this as a steer for La Thuile or is Mt Blanc a spoiler?
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nozawaonsen, Any idea if any of the prospective North Western weather will make it over to the Monterosa Area??
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nozawaonsen, Doh Laughing
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