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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
mheadbee, agreed, i'm in the same boat. flying to Geneva on sunday morning so i've got everything crossed that theres no snow at manchester airport. Funnily enough the same thing happend to me last year
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
im leaving on sat night, hoping they will have sorted everything out throughout the day so it doesn't effect our flight much. *fingers crossed*
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen, Thanks for http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/sringfs.png Do you know where to look for synoptic maps?
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Well all the UK forecasts said no snow for my postcode today (Wakefield) but maybe some tomorrow. Its snowing hear pretty heavy now! So basically i dont trust any of the uk forecasts Laughing
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Same in leicester, heavy and settling. Hopefully it will be enough to justify working from home tomorrow!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
This is quite interesting. Remember that normally in winter the polar vortex is a solid mass of low pressure sat atop the pole. But in this evening's 18z following the sudden warming of the stratosphere it gets ripped apart...



And replaced by high pressure leaving the vortex in pieces (Three or four purple pieces in this chart of the northern hemisphere).

And cold weather flows south.

All FI at this stage, but colder weather in the second half of the month starting to look increasingly likely.


BBC now saying that HP system is sitting over Scandinavia and allowing cold air to flood in over Europe. Nozawaonsen, how close do you think this FI prediction was to what we are about to see, ie cold and snow over the UK?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Ibex, the actual Northern Hemisphere chart for 15 January was not quite as dramatic as the one above, but it still shows the polar vortex driven apart into three shards.

So in terms of precise detail it was not accurate, but you would never expect at that range that it would be there are too many variables. But it was accurate in terms of correctly predicting the massive attack on the polar vortex and the subsequent high latitude blocking which is delivering the current very cold weather.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
BertieG wrote:
Do you know where to look for synoptic maps?


UK met office has them at: www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/

shown also on meteociel at http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

also available on wetercentrale from the front page http://www.wetterzentrale.de/ named "Bodenanalyse"

wetter.de has a selection of different sourced charts at http://www2.wetter3.de/fax.html

Is that what you were looking for?
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A low pressure system named Gong is bringing in a bit of a change this weekend. A fair bit of snow pushing into the French Alps overnight (30-40cm+ over the weekend), before pushing east and bringing snow Sunday and Monday.

Winds will pick up and it looks pretty stormy in the Eastern Alps at times on Sunday with temperatures pushing the snow line briefly above 1500m.

By early next week though temperatures look like dropping quickly to well below average with further snow to low levels.

Possibly more snow coming through at the end of the week.
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BertieG, here's another Himalayan/Indian resource.

Temperature (and precipitation if you toggle) anomalies (based on GFS).

http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/temp.html

I did have a link to other charts, but can't lay my hands on it right now.
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Quote:

BertieG, here's another Himalayan/Indian resource.


ahh you wanted maps for there - should have said.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Starting to look reasonably positive for a decent amount of snow in Zermatt next weekend. Hope so, tops everything up nicely for our trip the first week in Feb Very Happy
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_846_ens.png
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen, Certainly plenty of snow as we left alpe d'huez today. Snow all the way to Grenoble
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
the weather update on here have gone a bit quiet . everyone out playing in the snow snowHead
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I was wondering that too. Either that or they are all still in the airport.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
bruisedskier, or on the chaos at GVA thread - that's quite lively at the moment
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The GVA website suggests all going pretty well to plan there this morning. snowHead And, in my corner of the northern French Alps, bright sunshine this morning, conditions out there must be pretty well perfect.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Though snow forecast later and tomorrow. Meteo France on a bit of a roll at the moment, getting it right more often than not and a lot more often than is usually the case.
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pam w, Bloomin windy up here in Tignes - but very warm for the time of year - quite a few lifts shut above 2100m
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...back in the uk, just seen a snow plough (tractor with a blade) go past my house and put a nice sheen on the ice in the road. That'll help.
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Quote:

put a nice sheen on the ice in the road.

that's what they do - people who expect roads in ski areas to be cleaned right down to the tarmac can get a nasty shock. wink

chocksaway, it's warm here too, a v pleasant change after those perishing cold days. Wind here not enough to be a big problem (20 kph at the top according to the resort website) - and lovely conditions in the lower treed areas, according to my mates who are out. The advantage of not being so high up. wink
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
pam w wrote:

it's warm here too, a v pleasant change after those perishing cold days. ... and lovely conditions in the lower treed areas, according to my mates who are out. The advantage of not being so high up. wink


I don't think I've ever had quite so much envy of someone with a "pad in the alpes"..... Crying or Very sad

Still, the BBC have just offered me the prospect of 36 hours of continuous snow here, with 15-25cm tonight so life isn't too awful, just off to fill up the log baskets.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:

I don't think I've ever had quite so much envy of someone with a "pad in the alpes".....

Well, yes, there are worse places to sit round nursing a fractured pelvis; the views are lovely and the place is so small it's only a few steps with the crutches to get from one end to the other. wink
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Well, yes, there are worse places to sit round nursing a fractured pelvis


Gosh, I hadn't heard, how awful! Really sorry to hear that, hope its not too sore. Nozawaonsen and now you, not a skiing accident?
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Yes, skiing accident. It's getting better, 10 days after, and is a very straightforward fracture, shouldn't be any problem in the longer term.

So, for the last ten days I have been confined to a small apartment except for a visit to the medical centre by ambulance; I couldn't possibly get around outside at the moment, there's heaps of snow and ice everywhere. I have plenty of food and drink, and friends in another apartment to shop if I need more, and plenty of good books, Italian irregular verbs to learn (not done much of that yet....), the internet, radio. Have not yet been desperate enough to watch the telly (I have a freesat box and a dish); that's a last resort, but my friends are coming over with a DVD and a gooseberry crumble tonight. Another 8 days or so and my sister and brother in law are flying out to drive me and my car home. Could be a whole lot worse. snowHead
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pam w, sorry to hear...get well soon.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen injured? Sorry to hear that! Sad
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Damn this weather. I am due to fly to geneva tuesday night from heathrow, looks (hopefully) like the worst has passed but still feeling fairly anxious.

Any chance of an update on the weather in London on Tuesday night? The met office site really not telling me much..there will be some clouds apparently.

I feel for the poor people who have been canceled. Looks like the worst part is not knowing what to do...should you wait it out and try to get another flight, go home and call the insurance company, not bother traveling to the airport and in doing so make it easy on the staff but sit around listening to green sleeves on their answering machine for 12 hours as you try to find a resolution.

You would think there would be a standard protocol....if you are canceled join that que there and we will try to put you on another flight. Failing that you can go home with a refund. Can't be that difficult. Being told to just stay home and out of their hair is not helpful at all as you know they will hide behind the phone to avoid your inconvenient problem.
Seems to me the lack of any info is the worst part.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
mheadbee, best I can offer you is this.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&ext=1&run=0&lat=51.28&lon=-0.27&runpara=0&type=0

That's with co-ordinates pulled from wikipedia, 51.28 N 0.27 W, looking at the snow at the bottom, it depends on your view of percentages.

Make sure to click on the different runs, "Dernier diagramme du run de",to get the latest. The latest at the moment is 12h not 18h, and Tuesday reads 50% 10%, 20%, 65%, 75% through the day.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

Damn this weather.


Yes, it really sucks when it snows in the mountains you want to ski on Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
pam w wrote:
Yes, skiing accident. It's getting better, 10 days after, and is a very straightforward fracture, shouldn't be any problem in the longer term.


Sorry to hear that, hope it's better in time to get some more skiing in this season.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
In broad terms a pretty cold week to come with temperatures dropping off quite a bit as we start the week.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Friday and Saturday looking very cold particularly in the eastern Alps.

The second half of the week also looks predomoninantly sunny and bar the snow clearing the eastern Alps today this week does not look very snowy.

It looks like things will shift to more of a westerly influence from next Sunday/Monday which will mean a shift to milder weather than we've had of late with temperatures at or a bit above seasonal average.

Some very faint suggestions of something colder again towards the end of the first week of February, but that's a way off.

pam w, take it easy and get well soon!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
clarky999 wrote:
Quote:

Damn this weather.


Yes, it really sucks when it snows in the mountains you want to ski on Laughing


I was trying sooooo hard not to do that..... Twisted Evil
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Some nice snow in Morzine and Avoriaz a week or so ago. Some lovely off piste to be had as the video shows.


http://youtube.com/v/Me_Tk4Y5BSA
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clarky999, nozawaonsen, thanks. snowHead We do quite often see people moaning like billy-oh because their journeys are slightly delayed by snow. Or saying "We are planning a ski holiday in late March in resort X. Will there be snow? We won't need chains, will we?" On another thread I recalled a disgruntled Brit who arrived very late at night at my belgian friends apartment (I was holding the key) complaining that there was no mention, on the website for his piste-side (30metres) apartment that chains could be needed, and he'd had none. rolling eyes

Putting chains on, when you are driving to the Alps, is always a Very Good Sign. Not so clever when you're going home after a snowless week though. wink

So far, this is a great season in the northern Alps. Snow even at Christmas was excellent and there have been regular top ups since. Even though I can't ski in it (or even walk in it, for that matter) I adore sitting with a drink watching it swirling down outside.
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First post here so hello all Happy

I've been eagerly watching this and the snow report threads as I'm off to La Tania on Saturday for a week. Anyway I came across this weather site which looks hugely encouraging and may be of interest. I'm no weather forecaster but it would appear a high pressure system could be on the cards for most of next week, after some snow over the weekend. Obviously still quite early but fingers crossed it doesn't change!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=frfr&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
huh, who wants high pressure?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:

who wants high pressure?


well I'm very partial to a spot of sunshine, personally. We had another 16cms yesterday - there's plenty of snow. Not everybody wants to be thigh deep in powder in a white out. wink
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pam w wrote:

well I'm very partial to a spot of sunshine, personally. We had another 16cms yesterday - there's plenty of snow. Not everybody wants to be thigh deep in powder in a white out. wink


I do!
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dazh, Welcome to snowHeads snowHead
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