 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
achilles, £ heading high again, now at 1.245. If you look at trends then the next 'level' for the £ is around 1.27-1.28. It is floating in unknown territory at the moment looking for somewhere to go.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
thefatcontroller, 1.4 would be a good place, back to where it all began........I'm hoping!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Markymark29,  After several years of skiing @ 1:1 I'll take 1.20+ for now.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
Should I cash in those I've got left over from skiing? I'm sitting on about E425 that I got at about 1.17 just before Easter usually I keep them to make next years trip a bit cheaper - am I about to take a nose dive with them?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
| Megamum wrote: |
| Should I cash in those I've got left over from skiing? I'm sitting on about E425 that I got at about 1.17 just before Easter usually I keep them to make next years trip a bit cheaper - am I about to take a nose dive with them? |
Feel free to make a moneybroker rich. With that amount its pointless. Keep it for your next holiday.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
thefatcontroller, Me too, but just living in hope re 1.4.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Megamum,
You have made £23.87 - spend it wisely.
We have taken an option to buy next year's entire flow (quite a lot!!) at 1.3 - now we sit and wait.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Wayne, 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| boredsurfin wrote: |
| Wayne, |
That's what I was thinking, isn't it the other way around, isn't he losing money...
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Iaink, not if the rate goes up to 1.35
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
if he buys £100 worth now at 1.30 he'll get 130€, f the rate goes up to 1.35 he'll get 135€ so surely that means he'll have lost out?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Iaink, it's an option so he has the right but not the obligation to buy at 1.30. his maximum loss is the premium (aka fee) he has paid for the option
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
ahh, fair enough, I never have enough money to make this sort of thing worthwhile 
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
Wayne, I would have thought that I'd lost that much - if I had bought at 1.24 surely I'd have got more Euros than I got at 1.17 - haven't I lost? Or do I just not understand the way things work?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
thefatcontroller, sorry, thanks for that - I'll sit on them then.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
Kinda reminds me of petrol prices...how quickly we adjust to new realities...owt under £1.40 a litre and feels like a bargain. Let's hope that crashes and burns too.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
Iaink, Arno, Oh yeah - other way round 
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
Iaink, boredsurfin, Megamum,
Oh yeah (this is why I have 2 accountants  )
€425 @ 1.75 cost £363.24
€425 @ 1.24 can be sold for £342.74
So you have lost £20.50
Ignore me - I'm very old now and my once awesome brain power can now only just manage to shuffle my decrepit, and increasingly wrinkly, frame towards the old person’s home where my kids will deposit me, before rushing off to spend their (small) inheritance on bags of sweets that they will scoff whilst watching (yet another episode of) Pepper Pig.
*********************
Oh and the option at 1.3 - Just in case anyone’s interested (DIY’ers may now leave the room).
All TO’s assume a certain rate of exchange when pricing a holiday.
It is VITAL that they get this about right or let’s just say it would cause some problems.
The reason for this is that some sections of the trip (that is supplied to you) are purchased, by the TO, in £’s and some in €’s.
eg (in our case).
Administration, advertising, flights, resort wages (although this is converted), uniforms, etc, etc are paid for in £’s
As we supply “fully” inclusive holidays the list of euro spending includes some items that other TO’s may not need to purchase e.g lift passes, etc.
In €’s we need to purchase, hotels, transfers, ski school, hire gear, lift passes, rent (on staff accomm.) fuel (resort vehicles), tolls, etc, etc, etc, (this is a LONG list).
Say you pay £100 for your trip.
The TO will need to convert some of this into €’s to be able to purchase “stuff”.
Say for example they have to buy €60
If the rate is 1.2 the €60 will cost £50, if the rate is 1.3 the same number of €’s will cost £46.15. OK this isn’t much (£3.85) but you need to remember that once you start buying €’s in batches of 250k per time, it does make a difference.
There are quite a number of way in which TO’s (and anyone else) can limit any losses from currency exchange. You can take out a Forward – this is where you agree to buy a certain amount of €’s when (if) the rate of exchange reaches a certain level, although you need to watch out for these as (sometimes) the contracts are binding, although there is no cost if the rate does not reach the agree level. You can purchase an Option – here you will have the Option to buy if the exchange rate reaches a certain level. Etc, etc. There are many, many, many more.
Anyway, we have purchased an option . This means that if the rate of exchange reaches 1.3 we can (if we wish) buy a certain amount of €’s. The option is on a 7 day roll (a more expensive type of option, but safer). So within 7 days of the rate reaching 1.3 we can either buy the €’s or not. If the rate slipping back, say to 1.29, we can still buy at 1.3, but if we see the rate bettering to say 1.31 we can simply not buy the €’s but in this case the bank will keep our Option fee. Don’t cha just love banks.
So, if you paid £100 for your trip and it cost the TO £95 to run it there are no problems, but if the rate moves in the wrong way then it could end up costing £105 and let's just say would not be good.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
At launch £1 bought 1.65 German euro shows how low the pound has sunk, but all those goods we can’t sell now will be even less saleable at 1.30.
I smile at classic car dealers with all sorts of gear LHD bought when the pound sank; they still have them, so time to look around if you travel in Europe a lot and would like to drive an unreliable Aston or Italian magnificence.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
Megamum, don't forget that currency exchanges buy and sell at different rates. I have just looked on the Postoffice website and they are currently buying euros at 1.40euro/£. If you use this rate and sell the 425 euros for Stirling, assuming that there are not any additional charges, you would only receive back £303.57.
They are currently selling at 1.21euro/£.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Wayne wrote: |
Anyway, we have purchased an option . This means that if the rate of exchange reaches 1.3 we can (if we wish) buy a certain amount of €’s. The option is on a 7 day roll (a more expensive type of option, but safer). So within 7 days of the rate reaching 1.3 we can either buy the €’s or not. If the rate slipping back, say to 1.29, we can still buy at 1.3, but if we see the rate bettering to say 1.31 we can simply not buy the €’s but in this case the bank will keep our Option fee. Don’t cha just love banks.
|
To be fair to the bank they are taking on the risk (of the exchange rate movements) and they aren't going to do this for free. Nobody would.
Options are effectively a form of insurance and you wouldn't expect an insurance company to refund your premiums if you didn't make a claim on your travel insurance!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The surprising thing is that we are now almost (not quite, but almost) at a half way point of the £/€ exchange rate for the past 10 years
£1 to 1€ = low 0.97779, high 0.62321, now 0.80179
It almost pipped 1.25 today.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Am I right in thinking that a holiday sold in pounds is now more profitable as the euro weakens? There is some stuff bought in pounds, that costs the same as agreed already, and the forex rates make no difference, but the stuff bought in euros based on the 1.15 rates of a few weeks or months ago will now be cheaper because you can get more euros for your money.
This means that UK TOs are going to be more profitable. Or will be able to cut their prices for the next season.
Of course companies trying to export from the UK, or compete with goods imported and bought in euros, are going to have more of a problem. Then again, most stuff is bought in dollars from the big manufacturers in the Far East, so not much change there. We don't manufacture anything now anyway, so might as well make the stuff we have to buy in cheaper 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well I guess they all compete to bring the customer the lowest price they can so they probably have a team of accountants who predict the exchange rates
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Iaink, let's hope that they are better than the team that Gordon Brown had predict gold prices.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
achilles, 
I really hope it's not accountants predicting rates!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
This means that UK TOs are going to be more profitable. Or will be able to cut their prices for the next season.
|
Right, but bear in mind that we've had 4 years of pain dealing with a horrendous exchange rate. I wouldn't expect a rush to drop prices!
FWIW, when we set up in spring 2008, rate was somewhere around 1.3. We based our business plan (very sensibly, we thought) on a rate of 1.2. By Christmas, it was 0.99. That is a big hit to take for a new business!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
| Iaink wrote: |
| Well I guess they all compete to bring the customer the lowest price they can so they probably have a team of accountants who predict the exchange rates |
I think if I had a team of accountants that could predict exchange rates I wouldn't be in the travel industry, I'd be a Forex trader. The TOs have no more clue about what the exchange rates will do than the average man on the street. Which, amusingly, seems to be about the same as people who try and predict it for a living.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
Accountants can't predict anything - fact. Actually economists aren't too hot either. Gambling instinct of your barrow boy trader is probably your best bet for human prediction.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
| fatbob wrote: |
| Accountants can't predict anything - fact. Actually economists aren't too hot either. |
Rubbish! Economists have accurately predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Spanish banks in the pooh. As far as currency goes, a substantial holding of $US-based wealth seems a good idea - despite the problems in the States.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
andyph,
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
1.274 today....
|
|
|
|
|
|
cran
cran
Guest
|
|
Nadenoodlee, CaxtonFX +1
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
There's been a few blips but in general the last year's basic trend has been in one direction only.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
Up, up and away. Heading towards 1.28
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Want 1.4!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
