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The all new 11/12 Weather Outlook thread

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Southern alps is finally getting some fresh as well. Though how long it will continue Smile
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Quote:

why is it that snow fall is always deeper higher up?


I can think of several factors that could play a part - but Im no expert...

Generally, precipitation is heavier at in mountainous due to an effect known as orographic enhancement. Moisture laden air is forced to rise over the barrier of the mountains, it condenses and produces rain or snow. Heaviest precip tends to be on windward slopes (those facing the wind) as the air is forced to rise more quickly. On the leeward side of the mountains the effect is reversed to they tend to be drier.

Also the colder the temperature at which snow forms, the less dense it tends to be. Champagne powder in Utah and the like falls at very high altitudes and low temperatures. In the UK any snow we get tends to be wet and heavy as its much warmer.

Discuss...
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tallman wrote:
Also the colder the temperature at which snow forms, the less dense it tends to be. Champagne powder in Utah and the like falls at very high altitudes and low temperatures. In the UK any snow we get tends to be wet and heavy as its much warmer.


mainly this
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I agree with tallman's explanation above.

During the recent Andrea storm the Austrian Weather bulletins from Zamg several times mentioned cloud barrier effects in the Silvretta and Arlberg regions which helped increase the amount of snow falling. An explanation of cloud barrier or barrage cloud is given in the link below

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/main.htm?/docu/Manual/SatManu/CMs/Stau/structure.htm
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SLF's update.

High avalanche danger in some northern regions

- "On Friday there was snowfall widespread. Since Thursday in the Lower Valais, in northern Valais, on the northern flank of the Alps, in the Gotthard region and from northern Grisons into the Samnaun, there has been 20 to 40 cm of new fallen snow. In the remaining Valais and northern Ticino, as well as in central Grisons, there has been 10 to 20 cm of fresh fallen snow, elsewhere less."

- "On Saturday, widespread snowfall is anticipated. Between Friday evening and Saturday evening in the Jura, on the northern Alpine Ridge, in the Lower Valais, as well as from northern Grisons into the Samnaun, 20 to 40 cm of snowfall is expected; from the eastern Bernese Oberland into the Glarner Alps as much as 50 cm of new fallen snow. Elsewhere, 15 to 30 cm of snowfall is expected widespread; in the furthermost southern regions less. Particularly on Friday night, precipitation is expected to be intensive"

- "The wind will be blowing at strong velocity, at high altitudes at storm strength, from northwesterly directions. Additional, extensive snowdrift accumulations are expected to form."

- "Trend for Sunday and Monday: On both days it will be heavily overcast in general. Only in southern regions will it be predominantly sunny. In the northern regions, more than anywhere else, intermittent snowfall is anticipated."


It does look calmer on Monday, though could be light snow lingering in the Arlberg [23 January 1200 on WRF] before a further band of snow pushes through on Tuesday (how strong it will be is rather open to question at this point).

GFS has low pressure building through the Mediterranean next Friday (GFS 12z +168)which would bring snow into the Southern Alps. But ECM is less keen.

Here's a piece by NASA on the lack of snow in the US in the first part of this season.

What happened to all the snow?

Some strong husky singing at the end.
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Absolutely chucking it down here at the moment. It's been steady, but much lighter, all day - we got maybe 20 cms during the day but the way it's going at it now, another 50 cms is easily on the cards and I am anticipating a lot of digging out in the morning. In fact the computer-generated Snow-forecast.com was more accurate than Meteo France which forecast heavy snow all day.

It's great to hear that the Jura are getting a pasting before the holiday season; they've had some thin seasons up there. Be nice to see some snow down Bardonecchia way too, notwithstanding I have to drive down there again on Monday.

This is turning into an epic season in many areas! snowHead
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arriving in munich tmor morning and have a transfer to kappl/ischgl which I assume will go via the fernpass. should I have a plan B? what does it normally take weather wise to cause road closures? I know ischgl road was closed for a few days after the last heavy fall.
finally, what are the transfer companies usually like re driving in bad conditions, do they genuinely give it a lash or is it more the 'sorry its heavy snow so tuff luck we are not traveling
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You can also follow signs for Salzburg get off at Holzkirchen then head to Bad Tolz, Lenggries, Sylvensteinsee, Achensee, Jenbach and turn right onto motorway towards Innsbruck and then Landeck, Ischgl. Will add about 45 minutes I'd have thought but is usually pretty clear. It's snowing heavily here at the moment and forecast to do so all night but things will get cleared pretty quickly in the morning. I'm driving to watch the Hahnenkamm in the morning but having serious doubts as to whether it will be on.
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downhillalltheway, That road is likely to close sooner than the Fern Pass route! It stays clear up to Lengries but the section past that is low priority for the German authorities.

creedgearoid, The Fern Pass route is a main route in and out of central Tirol. It is the link to the A12(Inntal Autobahn) and the A7 (the longest continuous motorway from north to south in Germany). If it is closed, the chances are most of your alternatives are too.

It's been snowing all day here in Oberbayern but I have not heard of any road closures yet. The clearing teams will be out all night and a new shift will take over in the morning. Snow chains are currently mandatory on parts of the Fern Pass route according to the OE3 traffic reports but mostly in the direction going to Germany. http://oe3verkehr.orf.at/

The snow forecast for tomorrow is nowhere near as heavy as the falls we had from the storm earlier this month.
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downhillalltheway, Samerberg Sue, thank you
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I live in Lenggries and go down to Jenbach regularly. I have a 4x4 but haven't had any problems.
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Still NO snow for the southern alps, my little are is green all over, it would be good to get some snow this year!
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adam.b, as I think I've mentioned none is likely until there is a shift in the weather pattern. There is a reasonable possibility if not perhaps just yet a probability that just such a change is likely to take place towards the end of January or start of February.
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downhillalltheway, Snow chains mandatory on the Achen Pass today - for ALL vehicles. The road does not have as high a priority for clearing as the other routes. The route from the German side up the Silvansteinsee is also fairly low priority compared with lower easier to clear routes.

As an alternative route into the Austrian motorway system for people who have just picked up a hire car from the airport, it is not very practical to be honest. I have lived here for years now and can count the number of times I have used that route on one hand. That includes living in Holzkirchen for along time. The traffic jams that build up on it being one of the main reasons I prefer to use faster alternatives.
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Snow is still working it way through the Alps. It could pick up again this evening, especially in the eastern Alps.

WRF 21 January 1800

Becoming lighter tomorrow.

WRF 22 January 1200

And lighter still on Monday, with possible clearing, before it returns on Tuesday, though not in strength, and primarily in the east.

WRF 24 January 0900

Temperatures look pretty cold especially overnight Monday into Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday currently look pretty clear (though I'd be cautious about the possibility that snow could still be in play on Wednesday), and the possibility remains of further snowfall at the end of the week on 27 January near the French/Italian border.

Tirol avalanche update.

- "Over the last 24 hours there has been a new round of snowfall, in some places intense: the western Northern Alps, Ausserfern, Arlberg and Silvretta received 40 to 70 cm of new fallen snow" [lessening as you travel further east across Tirol]

- "The snowfall was accompanied by strong to stormy winds which shifted from westerly to northwesterly, and subsequently gave rise to extensive new snowdrift accumulations."

- "Mountain weather today: storm and snowfall on the northern flank of the Alps, bringing up to 40 cm of intensely transported new fallen snow from the Arlberg over Ausserfern to the KitzbĂĽhel Alps... Strong to stormy northwesterly winds at high altitude."
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Gearoid, if you still have access to the internet, road from Kappl to Ischgl is apparently closed due to avalanche risk:

http://www.welove2ski.com/jsp/index.jsp?lnk=201&id=7e

I was there last week and there was a LOT of snow on either side of the valley right the way down so I'm not surprised that the reported 60 - 70 cm that has fallen has led to the road being closed again. AFAIK there is no other winter route into Ischgl, the other pass is Summer only.

As for an alternative assuming you can still get to Kappl you should be able to ski there? I stayed a night there last week, but drove up to Ischgl to ski as its a bigger area. But it seems there's a decent amount of slopes above Kappl which could certainly entertain you for a day or two. There is a lot of accomodation in Kappl and we had our choice of 10 cheap offers on the internet for last Sat night so assuming that everyone else hasn't got the same idea as you then you should be fine. Kappl isn't the nicest place in the world, for some reason, despite there being loads of accomodation theres only a handful of restaurants, only in the centre of town, but if you're stuck it'd be grand. You would not be walking to these restaurants from some of the outer accomodation so if you don't have wheels try and book somewhere as close to the centre as possible.

I think theres another lift system at See further down the valley also, or if you can get over to Samnaun (the Swiss side) we actually found the best pistes (and off piste) were there.
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This morning dawned - surprisingly as MF had us down for a 3 snowflake morning - clear and calm with loads of blue sky. But we'd had shedloads of snow. I went out for a few hours this morning and having - by mistake - gone down a closed piste was talking the driver of the piste basher I met on the way down. I suggested we'd had 60 cms and he said "au moins" - it was a huge fall, particularly as it didn't really get going heavily till late on yesterday afternoon. Neighbours who drove up from Geneva said they'd taken far longer than normal because of the large number of idiots without chains or snow tyres - he had both for the last 25 miles and he drives up every weekend, and he's Canadian, so very used to snow. He said people were just stopped and spinning their wheels, turning the snow to ice. They had to abandon the car and walk the last few bends up the hill to the apartment - just too much depth of snow for a car with low clearance (Touran).

Fun skiing, though after the brief gorgeous dawn it closed in a bit and vis was rubbish a lot of the time. I skied a series of unpisted red runs, sufficiently badly not to be tempted to do the blacks. Saw one poor guy who had tackled a steep bit of off-piste, under a chairlift, holding a blood-stained handkerchief to his head and groping for his mobile phone. A little later I passed the rescuer on the way down, making very light work of deep snow and his sledge, going down to pick him up.

They're terrific, aren't they? Talking to the biste-basher driver was interesting (albeit I shouldn't have been there - he was very pleasant under the circumstances), and the local chairlift guy who opened his lift less than an hour late, despite having had to clear heroic amounts of snow, and the supremely competent piste rescue chaps. What would we do without them all?
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The Meteo France avalanche bulletin slipped the Beaufortain figure up to 70cm last night.
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Quote:

The Meteo France avalanche bulletin slipped the Beaufortain figure up to 70cm last night.


Yep, reckon that was about right. Seems to have shot its bolt now, though. I can't be bothered to try to clear my terrace - there's absolutely nowhere to put the snow, nowhere at all, with walls well above my head all around.
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pam w,

A picture would be nice?
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OK. Other Snowheads give you gnarly face shots in the trees and gulleys - here are my cremes brulées, just hardening up after I grilled the sugar.
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That table is under a roof and protected by walls of snow all around - but it's still amazing how much blew in, with the wind last night.
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pam w, amazing! Nice story too. Mmmm creme brulée *droool*
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pam w,

Where,s the wine chilling! Nice pic you lucky lady
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pam w, excellent !
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The CBs were excellent. However the snow, which was good and light this morning (can't blame the quality of the snow for my less than sparkling skiing on those unpisted runs), has turned heavy and gloopy - if I am going to do any digging I'd better get on with it before it gets any heavier. Temperature is minus 3 - 4 so not sure quite why it's gone off so fast. Meteo France says a fair bit more to fall tonight, but right now it's doing nothing. As am I. wink
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Here's SLF's take this evening.

In some northern regions, avalanche danger is high

- "On Friday night there was intensive snowfall widespread. During the day on Saturday, the snowfall slackened off from the west... Between Thursday and Saturday evening on the northern flank of the Alps, in the Lower Valais, in northern Valais, in the Gotthard region, in northern Grisons as well as in the Lower Engadine north of the Inn River, there was 50 to 70 cm of snowfall widespread; in the Urner and Glarner Alps, as much as 90 cm of new fallen snow."

- "On Saturday night, snowfall is anticipated widespread. During the day on Sunday, the snowfall will slacken off significantly. In the Valais bright spells are anticipated, in southern regions it will be predominantly sunny. Between Saturday evening and Sunday evening on the northern flank of the Alps from the eastern Bernese Oberland into Liechtenstein, in the Silvretta and in the Samnaun, 15 to 30 cm of snowfall is anticipated; elsewhere 5 to 15 cm of new fallen snow widespread."

- "On Monday and Tuesday, it will be predominantly overcast in northern regions. Particularly on Tuesday, intermittent snowfall is anticipated. In the Valais it will be partly sunny, in southern regions generally so."

The Vorarlberg avalanche bulletin this morning suggests the avalanche level could remain at 4 till at least Monday. Roads in and out of the Arlberg are closed for the rest of today.

Incidentally, there's been a fair bit of discussion about the difficulty of predicting snowfall, here's an article I linked earlier last year about the problems involved in trying to measure it (and that's before the resort marketing people get hold of it).

How deep the snow?
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Interesting 12z ECM. As high pressure builds over Scandinavia, cold pours down across Europe as we get towards the end of the month. Low pressure sinks from the low country down into the Mediterranean by 30 January.

A lot of uncertainty about the end of the month, but runs like this are starting to crop up quite frequently.

ECM 12z +216
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I've seen a couple of those charts, Nozza - what would that mean weather/snow-wise? I'm used to seeing low pressure over the northern bit of Yerp pulling fronts in from the Atlantic - would this produce snow or just cold? And if snow, where?
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What aout wind speed? how predictable long range is that. ie strong enough to cause lifts to close?
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nozawaonsen wrote:
cold pours down across Europe as we get towards the end of the month. Low pressure sinks from the low country down into the Mediterranean by 30 January.



Not liking the sound of that at all. Off to Val D on 2nd Feb so blue skies were on order snowHead
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nozawaonsen, So 4th February in the 3V will be very cold then? What does this scenario do for snow, more of it or less, or is it just to far out to have any idea as of yet?
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Ricklovesthepowder, no idea. 04 February is two weeks away. All I was saying is that a number of charts are cropping up suggesting the possibility of cold as high pressure over Scandinavia could allow cold to push in from the east. Doesn't mean it will. As for snow in the French Alps the sort of scenario in ECM wouldn't be bad with low pressure in the Mediterranean drawing moist air into the Alps meeting cold air from the east. Whether it play out like that time will tell, but it's worth keeping an eye on and a shift away from the pattern we've had for much of winter so far is picking up some momentum (though certainly not a sure thing).

andy from embsay, very generally low pressure pushing into the Mediterranean tends to be good for the southern Alps and not necessarily bad for the northern Alps.

Renry, not sure I understand your question? If you are asking can you reliably predict wind speed two weeks in advance I'd say no.

Tony Ellwood, could certainly still happen.
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Just a quick one for now... Bacon sandwiches to be found...

But here's another example of low pressure building in the Mediterranean at the end of the month amongst cold temperatures from the east.

GFS 06z +156

Which would bring snow across the Alps, particularly the southern Alps. Still a great deal of uncertainty, but worth watching.
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Tony Ellwood wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
cold pours down across Europe as we get towards the end of the month. Low pressure sinks from the low country down into the Mediterranean by 30 January.



Not liking the sound of that at all. Off to Val D on 2nd Feb so blue skies were on order snowHead


Ullr, please do not listen to such misguided prayer. Long weekend in Courmayeur 3-5 Feb, give us pow!
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There is very little to be said for this morning's weather in the vicinity of Les Saisies. Dull, damp, soggy, mega-maxi slush on the roads. Everything is dripping slightly. Thermometer says it's below zero but that must be because it's surrounded on 3 sides by walls of snow several metres high. I imagine this will be pretty widespread throughout the northern Alps, at lowish altitudes.

I am off to Genoa at 0600 so am not too bothered personally - but not a nice first day on skis for everyone who arrived yesterday. Meteo France were forecasting moderate snow this morning but we had around fourteen flakes. Sun just beginning to break through, which would make the afternoon a good deal more pleasant than the morning was. Might go out for a walk on the raquettes.
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Yes it's certainly looking rather slushy on the Arlberg webcams. I can see PUDDLES in Lech!

Seems the weather is going to be snowy on and off for quite a few days though, so no bad thing if that is the case.
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Really? Anywhere apart from the main road in town? It's milder than it has been, but I'd be surprised if it was causing a widespread thaw in the Arlberg. In any case colder weather looks like pushing into the Alps from tomorrow night, before getting quite a bit cooler midweek, rising Thursday into Friday then possibly dropping again next weekend. Snow in the central and eastern Alps on Tuesday.
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Wet and soggy in Schladming today. What a difference a night makes, was so much fresh snow around yesterday evening, warmed up overnight and rained lower down. Cooled some again this morning but not much, was snowing hard higher up when I was out this morning, in town was +5 this afternoon. Still snowing lightly, sleet in town. Hope it gets colder again soon. Was still finding good powder above 1500m, below that rain crust and then lower still soggy.
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Schladming is a good 600m lower than Lech mind you.

Here's the Tirol avalanche blog on the impact of the milder temperatures.

Regen und Wind bestimmen Lawinengefahr in verschiedenen Höhenbereichen

- Snow line rose to 1600m-1900m in North Tirol overnight.
- Rain has reduced snow depths in the valleys.
- Between 2000-2200m the milder temperatures has consolidated the snowpack. Below that rain may have weakened it.

Here incidentally is the SLF assessment of snow depth as a percentage of long-term mean values [this was on Thursday so before the latest heavy snow].

And here is how ECM sees temperatures mid week (about 10C colder than today), before rising on Thursday and potentially falling after that.

And... for The Night Race in Schladming on Tuesday... it looks... cold and snowy!! (again! wink)
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