 brian
brian
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Thought it might be an idea to have a weather forecast thread for skanky & cos thoughts, rather than them hiding in "Les Arcs webcam" and the like ??
Anyway, this morning's GFS is still bringing snow to the alpine region from next Thursday/Fridayish (20/21st) , getting more significant at the weekend (22nd/23rd) and continuing throughout the next week.
So to sum up :
next week (from Sat 15th) - looks like a continuation of quiet snowless weather with a possible change towards the end of the week.
week after (from Sat 22nd) - v cold N'erly weather with snow at times.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Sorry, I had just started doing for Les Arcs, but it seems to have snowballed (unfortunated pun) a bit. Here's one from Les Arcs:
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Chris Bish, yeah I was just going to come on show this chart (nb the url will show different charts over the days). It's still far enough to change but once it gets to within FAX range confidence improves and remember, it's had human input (which is interesting as the UKMO model still shows a bit of hp ridging similar to GFS & GEM which confirms that I still have a long way to go to read the models properly). Anyway, if that came off there would definitely be *some* snow. How much would depend on how vigorous the fronts are. GFS has the high stronger and ridges more eastwards, pushing the fronts more through Germany, eastern Switzerland and Austria - and UKMO have more precipitation falling there, too (if I was making a late booking, that's where I'd go now - but don't take my word for that if you are). GFS has light precipitation for a couple of days more from the moist air mass hitting the hills and the shape of it suggests that they think that the northerly mountains will get the bulk of it (rain shadow & Foehn effect would deny areas more to the south).
GEM holds the high pressure ridge over the western Alps until Friday when it finally fades away and brings (what looks like to me) a reasonably decent frontal system through.
NOGAPS bringsd a frontal system through Tuesday night/Wednesday.
ECMWF are supporting the broad picture and haven't changed much from yesterday (indeed the 500hpa charts are still yesterday's).
All models show rTM (returning Tropical Maritime) airflow towards the end of the week which will warm things up after the high moves away, but will provide the possibility of more (relief) precipitation.
This is Sembach's view of Tuesday, which backs up what JMA was showing (unfortunately JMA has not updated for some reason). However there's some agreement from GFS:
http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1023.html
http://wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn1024.html
Doesn't like like much though but if it's the start of a couple of days worth of snow it'll build up a bit and is better than nothing.
So while there is still some differences of opinion between the models, all are showing some snow coming through from about the middle of the week onwards, though as is usual, the further NE you go the better it will be.
Temperature wise, it looks like cold nights and cool days for a few days, warming up as the week goes on, but not looking (yet) anything like as warm as the last week or so.
The Balkans and parts of central Italy will have a (relatively) cold start to the week. That cold air being drawn too far south for us, it may bring snow to parts of central Italy though after it crosses the Adriatic.
Hopefully I'll see the 12z models before I have to leave this evening.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Incidentally, Meteo Swiss is showing the first precipitation for Wednesday with high & lows of 4 & 9 degrees respectively. Meteo France is showing no precipitation for BSM/Les Arcs until Tuesday inclusive, and does not yet show as far as Wednesday.
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skanky, That is the chart I was feeling optimistic about. I know its maritime air, but coming down from the north like that it should do for our purposes. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Chris Bish, it starts off from the south (which is bad) but it goes north first so becomes returning tropical which means it gets modified to cooler. It's maritime which is good (you need moist air for lots of precipitation). So yeah, I'm still optimistic.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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skanky, Quite so. There will be snow in the cold sector. Just stick it in the Alps please appropriate deities!
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brian
brian
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skanky, aren't the Sembach charts based on the GFS model ?
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Chris Bish, the goat-burning and false-effigy-worshipping is continuing apace in my gaff. i think the neighbours are a bit concerned but hey this is a matter of life and death... 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Chris Bish, where exactly is the cold sector?
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It's the bit in the swirly that is behind the second cold front. Because the air mass is rotating anti-clockwise it tends to bring down cold air from the north as it moves west to east. That's a rough version, as is probably obvious I'm no expert! 
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brian
brian
Guest
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Yer classic depression (aka low pressure area) is a big spirally thing with 2 fronts, a warm one (usually shown as red with semi-circles along it) and a cold one (blue with triangles).
The warm front comes first and introduces milder air, the warm sector ie. the bit between the fronts. Then comes the cold front which brings colder air, the cold sector,ie. the bit following the cold front.
Cold fronts move faster than warm ones, so as the depression matures the cold front catches the warm front and they merge into an occluded front.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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brian, I'm reassured that we seem to be saying more or less the same thing!
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brian
brian
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Chris Bish, 
Next week should be interesting. If the stuff 8-10 days out comes off, a lot of snow prayers (mine included, off to Zermatt a week on Sunday) will be answered.
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You know it makes sense.
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brian, If I'd put a comma after the word second in my post above it would have been more accurate!
Eats shoots and leaves eh!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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better pack my googles then .
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Poster: A snowHead
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I am very encouraged by the latest synoptics. The blocking high is heading west which is exactly what we all want. 80% hopeful of snow next weds/thurs.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Chris Bish,
Luverly jubberly as I will be in LP until the 25th, min..
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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On snow-forecast.com they're also predicting gales! Surely with winds around 60-70 and lots of snow the lifts are going to be closed, right?!
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Snow forecast.com predicting nearly a foot at mid station morzine on tuesday. Yipee, praying does work.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It aint there yet, and strong wids could be a problem. Latest synoptics are suggesting that, in simple terms, the Alps will get whatever we get from tonight onwards. Looks to be clearing up in the Alps by Friday. Very difficult to predict how much precipitation will get that far, but it is being directed that way for sure.
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Being a complete novice at this....does Italy follow the Alps at all?
I see that lots is currently forecast for Tuesday (17"), is any of that likely to go Madonna's way before the weekend??
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Chris Bish, given the weather warnings set for the UK tommorow and tuesday, thats surely a good sign?
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Aren't they predicting lots of snow in Scotland? That could be a shot in the arm for the Scotish resorts!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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rooney,
I have heard that Madonna has good snow but don't know if it will benefit from this ...hopeful...dump.
Certain parts of the Aosta are fed from winds from the south...I can't remember the name of it...so places like Gressomey and Cervinia do not get the same patterns as the French Alpes, I think...
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tomski01, Yes ...ish. It could go a bit further east than the serious bits of the Alps. I think the law of averages is on our side. I don't know about Italy.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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So can I assume that end of this week and next week there is a high chance of snow in LP and Les Arcs?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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cihans, certainly looks like there is some due over next 2/3 days....beyond that who knows! its about time tho init!
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tomski01, thank you...should I be optimistic or very optimistic after your email?..Will we be able to snow on fresh snow? ..I'll be there 30Jan-06feb
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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In the absence of the much repected (and more expert than me) Skanky, I'll refer you to one of his favourite sites for prediction.
http://ows.public.sembach.af.mil/wxcharts/synoptic96.htm
AS you can see the big dump might be a little too far east for us. I'm still hopeful though. The trend is the right way.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Anyone know if forecasts are suggesting snow falls for Cervinia over the next while? am off on the 30th jan.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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cihans, Looks promising doesn't it. It hasn't rained very much here today though, and they will get what is left in the Atlantic system.
Adam Holt, Cervinia will get some by the look of it. I'm just not sure how much.
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brian
brian
Guest
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Chris Bish, should be plenty of moisture left, this front's raced its way right across the atlantic.
Adam Holt, I wouldn't worry too much about Cervinia, there's at least a medium sized dump of snow on the way tomorrow and plenty of potential in the charts for more in the days ahead. Friday/Saturday looks likely to be the next fall after that.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I hope b]ian bloomfield[/b], is right about snow in Morzine. I will be there on Sunday, girlfriend there this week with the vikings down in Villapeyron / Chatel Linga and all got a couple of gashes on their skis. Advice is hire today and with any bit of luck tomorrow onwards bring on the good skis. Looks like we will have more of the white stuff.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Roy Hockley, I arrive sunday too, not worried at all looking at the maps.
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looking out of the window I would say it is snowing above 1000m in the Belledonne and Chartreuse mountains, weather is coming up from the south-west so if it is not snowing near you further north it soon will be.
[edit: 9.23]
Snow is getting heavier. Predictions are for around 30cm (1 foot) today. Take care if you are thinking of going off-piste later today or tomorrow. The old snow was very hard so the fresh will take time to bond to the surface and with the wind there could be some quite serious accumulations of snow, esp on north and east slopes (think wind slabs near ridgelines and soft slabs lower down). A couple of days for enjoying the pistes down between the trees I think.
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The high off the coast of Spain is perfectly positioned to direct polar air towards the Alps. It looks like staying that way into next week. Might be showers rather than big dumps, but there is more to come. Might even get some down the east coast here.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Funny how everybody has lost interest in this thread
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My thoughts entirely, but looking out of the window is a rather low tech way of forecasting snow, and I suspect many have better things to do ---- like ski!
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FAQ
