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UK Metoffice winter forecast - Another mild winter

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
This winter is forecast to be warmer and perhaps drier than average. However, it is expected to be noticeably colder than last year, which was the second warmest since the UK Climate Series began in 1914.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070927.html

Forecast for Winter 2007/8

Temperature
Above-normal winter temperatures are more likely than below-normal temperatures over much of the European region. However, this winter is likely to be less mild in most regions than last winter, when exceptionally mild conditions were widespread across Europe. The influence of La Niña is to slightly enhance the likelihood of near-normal temperatures in early winter and mild conditions during late winter.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The Met Office is saying a warm and dry Winter.

Others are predicting a cold and snowy one.

All longterm forecasting is finger-in-the-air stuff, but it will still be interesting to see who guesses right.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
it will happens the same than past summer: snow and
cold assured.
I don't understand this forecast with La Niña and negative NAO predicted
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i'm tellin the its gonna be chilly - its cold already - ski coat will be out for walk to sandwich shop at this rate.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Is this the same forecasters who promised us a long hot summer and never mentioned flooding and persistent rain for the school summer holidays 2007. rolling eyes
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boredsurfin, course not, they were fired! wink
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
laundryman, In a past job I had reason to visit the old Met Office in Bracknell and was astonished to see displayed that their Government set target was for a 40% accuracy rate!

More surprisingly this was based on the accuracy of the 9.00am forecast broadcast on Radio 4 for that days weather Shocked
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I see the forecast is to be updated in November, December and January, giving the Meto a chance to fix the forecast if they've got it wrong.


snowHead
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
But in June they were saying that the summer would be hot and dry while the water was flooding their offices Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
They have just updated the weather forecast for tonight.





It will be dark.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
don't do this to me, I've just quit my job to do a season
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 brian
brian
Guest
5stitches, don't panic !

When they say mild they mean relative to the 1971-2000 average, which compared to recent winters is pretty cold and when compared to last winter is positively polar.

If you look at the numbers behind the forecast, they're actually not really making any forecast about dryness, and only slightly favouring mildness.





An "average" season in Scotland (or the alps) would be just fine, thanks.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
brian, cheers for that - after the last few years I've given up on forecasts anyway. figures crossed though!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
kitenski wrote:
This winter is forecast to be warmer and perhaps drier than average. However, it is expected to be noticeably colder than last year, which was the second warmest since the UK Climate Series began in 1914.


Well I'm not planning on skiing in the UK this winter so pffff, whaddever.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
boredsurfin,

Yeah, but that was in 1942. Things have moved on wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Mild weather in UK could bring North wind flowing to europe!! High presures in UK and north winds above the Alps.....The weather isn't the same in both places.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Let's be honest they haven't got a feckin' clue... It will be mild but not too mild - talk about hedging their bets! Utter b***cks.
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Actually if you look at the charts, since there is a 25% likelihood of below average, and a 30% likelihood of average temperatures, by thier own calculations it more likely to be "average or colder" than "milder". They do have a better record of forecasting winters than summers, but this one is pretty much as non-committal as you can get.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Exclamation i did plenty of skiing which did not suck at all last season, so if this one is better - wahay!

less of the doom and gloom, people
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johnboy wrote:
boredsurfin,

Yeah, but that was in 1942. Things have moved on wink


What Shocked in the Met office! The only thing they have moved since 1942 is their office from Bracknell to Exeter Laughing
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
RobinS, but it's also more likely to be average or milder than colder wink

Arno, I concur Toofy Grin
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
boredsurfin wrote:
johnboy wrote:
boredsurfin,

Yeah, but that was in 1942. Things have moved on wink


What Shocked in the Met office! The only thing they have moved since 1942 is their office from Bracknell to Exeter Laughing

The Met Office was in Dunstable in 1942.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
I like the precipitation graph, nothing like sitting on the fence Shocked . I agree with dk100, they haven't got a clue.
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