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The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
12z GFS going for a cold end to August with temperatures -8C below average in the Alps on bank holiday Monday if that plays out (obviously nine days out that comes pretty heavily caveated).

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, nice, freeze levels to 2000 if above plays out.
I really must get out more on Friday nights, but someone tell the good people of western scotland that a large penguin is headed their way.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Still looking at a (probably) short sharp shock in the Alps for the time of year Sunday into Tuesday.

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seems fo be a fair bit of snow being put down one Greenland, well for late August.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2018081900&fh=18
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Still looking at a (probably) short sharp shock in the Alps for the time of year Sunday into Tuesday.



a bit of cooler weather would be nice, still 26C today and very muggy.
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@davidof, 31C in Salzburg. Just to be clear the cooler weather looks like being a week away.

Chamonix

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Cold weather arriving Saturday on 12z GFS.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Interesting article on the world's highest glacier, at 7000m / 23,000ft on Everest.

https://www.citymetric.com/horizons/here-s-why-we-re-using-car-wash-drill-world-s-highest-glacier-everest-3911
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Mt Buller, southeast Australia, this week received its biggest snowfall for 14 years.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6075435/Mt-Buller-receives-snow-resort-14-years-30cm-recorded-overnight.html

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Interesting long range forecast:

ECMWF sees below normal snowfall across the UK and Turkey during winter 2018-19, but abundant snow in the vicinity of the Swiss Alps.

From: bennollweather.com
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looks like some colder northerly winds hitting Western Europe this weekend.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen wrote:
Cold weather arriving Saturday on 12z GFS.



00z GFS and ECM still going for it.

If forecasts are correct it would give us some sleet around town at 1100m.
August is the only month I have yet to see sleet or snow at that level. Would give me a full house.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Latest ECM, GFS, UKMO all handle the low over the north sea differently at t+144, so a few twists left before a clear pic emerges of where lowest temps will be and what might fall from the sky.

Here's some variation to the usual snapshots....first is the GFS ensemble freeze level raw data, the one that feeds the normal 'squiggly line' charts on here. Column 0=control, the GFS Op run is the last column.
Shows the brief plunge from 4000's (black) to low 2000's (red) coming up next weekend.



Then there's the GFS 3D model, nice way to visualize the jet stream as it dips into europe. But this image shows the 850 hpa (1500m) temp drop to 2 or 3 deg C.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
06z GFS main run seems to have reined in the low temps a bit.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
4 year heatwave to hit planet Earth

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-heatwave-climate-change-temperature-rise-procast-university-of-brest-a8491916.html
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

4 year heatwave to hit planet Earth


I guess maybe, its hotter currently that the 80's and early 90's but it looks like the temperature is heading downward, but who knows, It could shoot upwards! and to make such claims, in my opinion is pointless.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_July_2018_v6.jpg
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
4 year heatwave to hit planet Earth

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-heatwave-climate-change-temperature-rise-procast-university-of-brest-a8491916.html


Funny as other scientists say we going to a cooldown.
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Mr.Egg wrote:
davidof wrote:
4 year heatwave to hit planet Earth

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-heatwave-climate-change-temperature-rise-procast-university-of-brest-a8491916.html


Funny as other scientists say we going to a cooldown.

Would you like to link to any of those "scientists"? I'd put money on them been employed by oil companies or rightwing nut jobs.
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Daishan wrote:
Mr.Egg wrote:
davidof wrote:
4 year heatwave to hit planet Earth

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-heatwave-climate-change-temperature-rise-procast-university-of-brest-a8491916.html


Funny as other scientists say we going to a cooldown.

Would you like to link to any of those "scientists"? I'd put money on them been employed by oil companies or rightwing nut jobs.


You can google it yourself
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Quote:

Would you like to link to any of those "scientists"? I'd put money on them been employed by oil companies or rightwing nut jobs.


I think Jeremy corby's brother is one of them. He is definitely not right wing or funded by "big oil"
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@Mr.Egg, as always you're unwilling to back up your assertions with any evidence.

https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/basics-of-climate-change/

I apologise for cluttering up the thread I'll make any future posts about climate change in http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=138378 or simlar thread.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Still a few more lazy hot summer days to go...


http://youtube.com/v/t8hVSn234K4

But looking like 30cm+ of snow for Hintertux above 2000m on Sunday.
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Daishan wrote:
@Mr.Egg, as always you're unwilling to back up your assertions with any evidence.

https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/basics-of-climate-change/

I apologise for cluttering up the thread I'll make any future posts about climate change in http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=138378 or simlar thread.


im not going to spoon feed you.
your capable of using search engines.
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@Mr.Egg, are you from Holland?
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00z and 06z GFS main runs back on track for extremely cool temps next Sunday. They are both slight outliers on the cold side so probably won't be as cool as they predict.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Mr.Egg, and @Daishan, Play nicely please Happy
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I think Mr Egg is from Illinois......................................
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Most short range models have now drifted towards only the briefest dip in temps into Sunday, and not much precipitation. Pattern flattened out, with very little direct northerly impact.
Looking further ahead seems like a long spell of settled warm weather into early September, ie boring.

Came across these longer range charts from ECM and MF on another site (Sep to Jan anomalies).
ECM is notable for the amount of -AO (blocking over the pole) and high pressure generally to the east / north east...leaving europe potentially cooler than average during late autumn, and then lower pressure over UK into Dec/Jan.
MF has the blocking further east over russia / siberia. Strong +NAO, but looking settled and mild autumn over alps as the jet stays north until Dec, then potentially cold and snowy as low pressure sits over northern europe and the high pressure to the south recedes.



Bottom line is autumn looks settled / average and both models have a decent set up for the key Nov-Jan period. Generous pinches of salt all round.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
polo wrote:
Most short range models have now drifted towards only the briefest dip in temps into Sunday, and not much precipitation. Pattern flattened out, with very little direct northerly impact.
Looking further ahead seems like a long spell of settled warm weather into early September, ie boring.

Came across these longer range charts from ECM and MF on another site (Sep to Jan anomalies).
ECM is notable for the amount of -AO (blocking over the pole) and high pressure generally to the east / north east...leaving europe potentially cooler than average during late autumn, and then lower pressure over UK into Dec/Jan.
MF has the blocking further east over russia / siberia. Strong +NAO, but looking settled and mild autumn over alps as the jet stays north until Dec, then potentially cold and snowy as low pressure sits over northern europe and the high pressure to the south recedes.



Bottom line is autumn looks settled / average and both models have a decent set up for the key Nov-Jan period. Generous pinches of salt all round.


Hope generous amounts of salt will be needed on roads Toofy Grin
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@mooney058, indeed, get those winter tyres ordered before the rush.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
polo wrote:
@mooney058, indeed, get those winter tyres ordered before the rush.

Indeed, mine need to be replaced Smile Nokian wr Suv 4 is the favourite for order in a months time
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just noticed GWV has also looked at ECM and MF models....using MSLP and temp anomalies, he concludes MF looks mild and wet, ECM is much cooler.
None of it really matters tbh, but if anyone interested, there's ton's of long range stuff on this site.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/s/charts/c3s_seasonal/
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For Hintertux it’s now looking like 40cm plus on Sunday down to 1800m.

Temperatures then warming up. Just the furthest ripple of winter reaching us.

Beautiful hot sunshine hiking in Salzkammergut today.
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I'd love to see 40cm at 1800m.....get to strap on my new massive snowshoes. Does seem like Hintertux hits the jackpot, nothing like that in the west.
The short term models are all over the place with the precipitation calcs....seems more pronounced in summer, when even Arome, Arepge, ICON, WRF etc either completely miss storms, or massivley over egg them.

Looks like GFS trying to slide another low across under scandi blocking at month end.....but little support elsewhere.
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actually there is support for GFS above, I hadn't looked closely enough, ECM Op and GEM on same page

This from wepowder for the w/e
"There is a real temperature drop where the snow line drops quickly only on Saturday and Sunday. The front lingers over the eastern Alps and especially in the main alpine ridge of Austria and the bordering regions in Italy it snows and rains heavily. The snow line drops from 3900 meters on Friday to 2500 and later even temporarily to 2000 meters on Saturday and Sunday".
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Towering Cumulonimbus blocking out the sun now. Sharp crackling thunder rolling round the mountains. Tales of very heavy rain heading south from Munich. Time to retire with a Stiegl.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Rain hitting Saalbach area hard. 5000 people cut off in Glemmtaler and civil defence alarms sounding.

https://www.facebook.com/Wetterwarnung/videos/2083432205305730/
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As well as localised flooding there were also a couple of forest fires caused by lightning strikes. Busy evening for the fire brigade.

Weak blue skies for the timebeing in Salzburgerland, but the risk of heavy rainfall again later today.
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Lots of rain on the way to Ski Amade. Never seen a spike this big in a short-term forecast.

May well be falling on already saturated land.

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