Ski Club 2.0 Home
Snow Reports
FAQFAQ

Mail for help.Help!!

Log in to snowHeads to make it MUCH better!
Username:-
 Password:
Remember me:
durr, I forgot...
Or Register
(to be a proper snow-head, all official-like!)

The All New 18/19 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/Kr0tTbTbmVA

Its hot. Damn hot! Real hot!

Nudging towards 33C in eastern Austria.

Hottest day of the year? Could be!

So. Pour a cool drink, slip on some shades and shimmy in the sunshine because its time to think about snow.

But first...

I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.

Computer models are good at giving you an idea of what the forecast is likely to be three to five days out (which is actually pretty amazing given the chaotic nature of weather). That said they can still be caught by surprise and accurately predicting precipitation in particular is very difficult. Although sometimes people ask what "locals" think the weather will be like, most (farmers, police, guides) will use the same sort of forecasting tools every else does. Locals don't have a sixth sense that can allow them to know what the weather will be like that others don't have. What they do have built on hard experience is a much better feel for how the weather will affect the local area and how that will change the conditions.

Here's something I scribbled down on forecasting at the end of the 2011 season. I think it still makes broad sense now.

nozawaonsen wrote:


"Looking at shorter term models like GFS etc. Beyond seven days any model is very subject to change. I wouldn't take it that seriously. You might get a trend. GFS provides a longer range, public set of ensembles than other models and these are easier to tie to location than others, but the ease of use does not mean GFS is necessarily a better model than others. To have any confidence in that trend you would want to see it picked up run after run and also joined by other models.

- Closer in GFS and other synoptic models start to be less useful in the 2 to 3 day range. Local variation will start to undermine them beyond the general trend.
- Mesoscale models like WRF may be more useful in the 2-3 day range.
- Right close in, on the day or day before for example, if I needed a good forecast I would almost always choose the local avalanche forecast for accuracy.

- Don't take it that seriously."

To which I'd add that beyond seven days you can't really talk about a forecast, what you have is a range of probabilities, as shown by the different coloured ensembles, which is almost always simply too great a spread to really call a forecast. You can't really make sense of these as a single snapshot. So you need to see how they evolve from run to run to give you a sense of whether certain options are looking more or less likley.


And to repeat forecasting accurate precipitation is very difficult (so be wary of any forecast that appears to say you will get 23.5cm of snow next Friday). Measuring how much has fallen afterwards is almost as difficult if not more so (so be wary of any snow report which claims 23.5cm of snow fell last Friday).

And finally for anyone wanting facts about the future. There aren't any there are only forecasts (and sensible ones tend to have caveats).

Good that hopefully should have cleared things up a bit.

Some thoughts on ENSO to follow...

Good to see you all again!
snow report     
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, Yes indeed! We were just chatting last night about the upcoming season over a post-climb beer. A decent amount of snowfall without a persistent weak layer was the wish. It's absolutely baking is it nearly winter yet?
snow conditions     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, Good to see you again. Looking forward to your thoughts this coming season.
ski holidays     
 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
2018/2019 is going to be another belter! A local Valaisan farmer told me 😉

Ps keep your fat skis waxed and ready to go 😎
snow conditions     
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
BobinCH wrote:
2018/2019 is going to be another belter! A local Valaisan farmer told me 😉

Ps keep your fat skis waxed and ready to go 😎


Doesn't get better than that!
snow conditions     
 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
cad99uk wrote:
@nozawaonsen, Good to see you again. Looking forward to your thoughts this coming season.
+1
ski holidays     
 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
-1 here last night on the mountain. (I'm sure that doesn't mean anything )!
ski holidays     
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Glad to see I'm not the only mad man who's thoughts turn to snow even deep into the heat.

Best of luck to all snow heads and fellow powder chasers this coming year
ski holidays     
 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Dusting of snow above 2500m. Fresh snow in the summer always looks beautiful.
snow conditions     
 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Certainly been quite a drop in temperatures over last couple of days in Austria.

Currently NOAA has an El Nio watch in place for autumn.

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere summer 2018, with the chance
for El Nio increasing to 50% during fall, and ~65% during winter 2018-19
ski holidays     
 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
There was some snow on the Scottish mountains for the summer solstice
latest report     
 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And we're off on the great seasonal marathon of fore-casting, hope-casting, speculation, weather lore, old farmers tales and so on...

I hope this thread is as short as the 17/18 one was!

This morning I was chatting to a Kiwi friend from near Timaru on the South Island. She told me they'd had their first frost of the winter on Saturday night. If you think of our winter equivalent date I really hope the NH winter doesn't start like that Sad
snow conditions     
 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, Thank you again for starting the next instalment of the Weather Outlook Thread.

Looking forward to the season ahead. Very Happy
snow report     
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
http://www.winterhighland.info/pix/pixalbum.php?pix_id=1338

First turns of the new season were on Saturday at Glencoe Cool
latest report     
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Still racing at Avoriaz

https://www.facebook.com/MorzineTV/videos/1734369616632169/

rather them than me.
ski holidays     
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, any thoughts on what the weather in La Tania will be on Wednesday 13 March at 11:25?
snow conditions     
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
it will snow overnight, 42.5cm of fresh powder, followed by sun all day.
ski holidays     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Little Martin wrote:
it will snow overnight, 42.5cm of fresh powder, followed by sun all day.


Get in ⛷. We will be there.
ski holidays     
 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
Another year.... another season of seasonal forecasting for the winter and hoping to actually post regularly....

The various ENSO models forecast ENSO to be Borderline El Nino, which correlates roughly with -AO and -NAO.
latest report     
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Its not every summer that Glasgow is forecast to be 4 degrees warmer than London but it can happen if the source air flow is coming from the north east.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-44635107
ski holidays     
 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
Currently 5c warmer in Aviemore than here in North Yorkshire.
snow report     
 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Get your skis out.

Winter is on it's way. Pow, pow, pow etc.

First snow depth map of the season.

snow conditions     
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Nah, it's still the tail end of last season for me.
snow report     
 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Scandinavia looking bad at the moment (July 2018). A couple of resorts have closed early for the Summer, this week.

European Alps glaciers starting to wilt in the heatwave, but generally doing okay.

North America glaciers / snowfields also wilting in the heat, especially Western Canada.

Southern Hemisphere is rocking in New Zealand. Australia so-so. Lesotho, Africa, is open with a couple of trails on manmade.
ski holidays     
 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Was up on the Dachstein glacier (hiking not skiing) at weekend. Looked like plenty of snow for start of July.
snow conditions     
 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Was up on the Dachstein glacier (hiking not skiing) at weekend. Looked like plenty of snow for start of July.



Tangent: What makes the most difference to a glacier, snowy winter, or a cool summer?
I instinctively feel this winter will have been good for glacier depths, but is the key factor the snow loss over the summer?
snow conditions     
 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Drammeister, its the mass balance that you need to look at. So how much winter growth compares to summer loss. The trend not surprisingly has been towards a negative mass balance given the generally warmer weather in summers. Last winter would I imagine have offset this, but perhaps not against the overall trend. An interesting stat (which you find at the bar on top of the Dachstein) is that it takes roughly 80cm of snow to create an additional 1cm of glacier.

http://www.parcs.at/npa/pdf_public/2018/36030_20180315_103315_NP_Hohe_Tauern_Conference_5_0747-0750.pdf
ski holidays     
 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
The Glacier Blanc in the Ecrins national parc didn't see exceptional accumulations of snow this winter:-

Quote:
l'enneigement hivernal que l'on a connu cette anne ne se traduit pas par des accumulations exceptionnelles haute altitude.


and you can see the marks on this rock



It has been very warm this year in France so I wouldn't hold out much hope for the glaciers

latest report     
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Interesting stuff @davidof.
Some areas seem to have done better than others.
I understand the Val d'Isere glacier opened this year - first time for years.

It has been warm recently here in La Plagne, but no more than usual according to locals.
And now exciting thunder storm has started with hail.
Never a dull moment in the alps Smile
ski holidays     
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Jonpim wrote:
Interesting stuff @davidof.
Some areas seem to have done better than others.
I understand the Val d'Isere glacier opened this year - first time for years.

It has been warm recently here in La Plagne, but no more than usual according to locals.
And now exciting thunder storm has started with hail.
Never a dull moment in the alps Smile


They opened on the Bellevarde which they've not done before but could have done in the past as there is often snow at that altitude in June. The glacier is open every year. Not so long ago la Plagne had summer skiing.

You ate right that conditions are variable though.
ski holidays     
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Jonpim, crazy hail down in Hartberg.

https://www.facebook.com/Wetterwarnung/videos/1816413561784947/

Vienna had heaviest rainfall in four years last week.

Still very warm, but not as warm as London has been.

Ischgl certainly has more snow patches up top than it did this time last year.
snow report     
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Anecdotally there are quite a few more snow patches around the Northern Chablais area at approx. 2000m (near Thollon/Bernex etc) compared to this time last year, but they have been melting quickly over the last few weeks of warm weather. Lowest snow patches last week could be seen around 1800m altitude in places.
snow conditions     
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Drammeister, its the mass balance that you need to look at. So how much winter growth compares to summer loss. The trend not surprisingly has been towards a negative mass balance given the generally warmer weather in summers. Last winter would I imagine have offset this, but perhaps not against the overall trend. An interesting stat (which you find at the bar on top of the Dachstein) is that it takes roughly 80cm of snow to create an additional 1cm of glacier.

http://www.parcs.at/npa/pdf_public/2018/36030_20180315_103315_NP_Hohe_Tauern_Conference_5_0747-0750.pdf


The Mer de Glace, in Chamonix, the second longest glacier in the Alps, has lost roughly 100 meters of ice in the past 100 years.

If global warming stopped tomorrow, it would take 500-1000 years for the glacier to return to its 1900 levels.
ski holidays     
 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
Took this photo today of the south-east side of Monta Rosa this is as far as I could go on a road bike

snow conditions     
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Might see a very light sprinkling of snow at the top of the Hintertux glacier later today and tomorrow. Though its pretty fine right now.
latest report     
 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
@davidof, Lovely pic. I skied down that way in April. Fantastic route - but rather expensive as I am based in Tsch, jut north of Zermatt. So you have to get a taxi back round to Cervinia. Now if they ever build that link between the Cervinia and Monte Rosa resorts ....
snow conditions     
 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Some good background on summer so far in the UK.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/07/17/the-summer-so-far/
snow report     
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Cheers @nozawaonsen, some interesting comparisons to 1976. The big question is.. was the winter of 1976/7 a snowy one?
snow report     
 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@Handy Turnip, in UK winter 76-77 was quite snowy.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/q/c/dec1976.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/r/jan1977.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/r/feb1977.pdf
snow conditions     
 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Spare a thought for villagers in Greenland, who have an 11-million-ton iceberg, sliced from global warming, hurtling toward their homes.

snow report     



Terms and conditions  Privacy Policy