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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
The state of the West...

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf


Rather snowless...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
Much of Northern side of the Alps should see plenty of fresh snow over the next few days continuing the above average pattern of December. Maybe a drier spell and milder at times going through next week as high pressure pushes across.



Is thats what the rising temps from 19 and foreward means?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Yes as higher pressure pushes across next week it will bring milder temperatures and calmer conditions for the west.



How long it lasts is unclear. 06Z GFS quickly bring cold and snow back in FI as we approach Christmas.

Plenty of snow on the way over next few days for northern Alps.

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Looks like Xmas will warm up in the Alps.

Nightly refreeze will make the trails icy.
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Whitegold wrote:
Looks like Xmas will warm up in the Alps.

Nightly refreeze will make the trails icy.


Yeah. You’re right. As always. Er. Not.



Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat.....

Over 10 days ahead. Could be like that. Could be not. What I really object to is that you appear to want to upset people. Why do that?
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He's a troll.


Me, I hope it snows for everyone and we all enjoys great conditions.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
He's a troll.


Me, I hope it snows for everyone and we all enjoys great conditions.
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@nozawaonsen, apologies for requesting a specific forecast, but what are your thoughts about the possibility of snow on Friday evening? I'm driving from the Tyrol to the Tarentaise and it would be nice if this wasn't through a blizzard!
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@Whitegold, I think you need to go and seek help ...

This is the best start to a European season for years - the vast majority of people on this forum work their socks off all year long so that they can enjoy 6 days (and possibly a long weekend) doing what they love ... show some respect FFS and let us look forward to a great 3-4 months.

We are constantly learning from what @nozawaonsen, @Jellybeans1000 and other frequent contributors offer to this thread - why do you feel you need to come on and profess that you somehow know what the weather will do in 2 weeks time. Absolute nonsense.
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franga wrote:
@Whitegold,

This is the best start to a European season for years.


Yep.

Massively exciting.

I lurk on this site constantly from about October to April, every year, as my obsessiveness grows during the season. I'm lucky enough to do at least a couple of trips each year, and rely on the expert level info that comes from this forum to make the run-up to my trips that little bit more exciting. Ultimately, whatever the weather I always have a good time, but this season I am allowing myself some positivity early on! And looking forward to the drive down on the 30th December!!!! Laughing
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Heading to Les Arcs for the opening on Saturday. Snow forecast looks great, weather brightening up a little for the start of next week. Let's hope they can get all of the mountain open. Can't wait Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@rob@rar, after a quiet afternoon on Friday snow arriving from the west early evening then overnight. Doesn’t look that heavy then, but does look like falling to low levels.
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@nozawaonsen, thanks, much appreciated, as ever.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@rob@rar, this shows the window of clear weather on Friday.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
DUMPING in Innsbruck right now! Heaviest snow we've had down to the city so far this season.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Heavy in the Amade region as well. The warm föhn wind of the last couple of days has set up a good base with the deep recent snowfalls, they should cover up all those pesky rocks and trees with a nice firm layer.
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Scarpa wrote:
Heavy in the Amade region as well. The warm föhn wind of the last couple of days has set up a good base with the deep recent snowfalls, they should cover up all those pesky rocks and trees with a nice firm layer.

It has done precisely that in Val D'Isere this week. Fantastic snow conditions now (if not visibility!)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Portes Du Soleil is about to get well and truly plastered!

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both ECM and GFS have milder weather pushing across on 19 December.

That said GFS doesn’t allow it to push that far east so allows cold weather to push down by 23 December with snow in the east.



ECM allows high pressure to have more influence.

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A wee bit of warmish sunshine at Christmas(with plenty of snow underfoot) would be absolutely acceptable. snowHead
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@pam w, indeed. While I am in Scotland. rolling eyes rolling eyes
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pam w wrote:
A wee bit of warmish sunshine at Christmas(with plenty of snow underfoot) would be absolutely acceptable. snowHead
+1 for that. Can't get too greedy though
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Hang on, one minute everyone is slating poor old Whitegold for saying it’s going to warm up at xmas, and that the freeze/thaw will make the pistes icy(it will if it happens). Next minute you’re all agreeing with him!

Ps Personally I quite like his direct speak. I know he does it to wind everyone up but he’s often correct.
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zzz wrote:
Hang on, one minute everyone is slating poor old Whitegold


Not me. I blocked him many moons ago
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Quote:

Ps Personally I quite like his direct speak. I know he does it to wind everyone up but he’s often correct.


No. He is sometimes correct but quite often entirely wrong. I think he throws in the correct statements just to mix things up and keep us off balance Very Happy
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@KennyEverett, me too
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
jedster wrote:
No. He is sometimes correct but quite often entirely wrong. I think he throws in the correct statements just to mix things up and keep us off balance Very Happy
But then, a stopped clock is right twice a day.
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Quote:

you’re all agreeing with him

I'm not agreeing (ever...) with somebody who tells me confidently what the weather's gonna do in a couple of week's time.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Whitegold is one of the most accurate posters on snowheads from my limited amount of thread surfing. The world needs more straight talking and less nanny stating. That is all. Please don't quote me, or expect me to engage in senseless debate as I am in the middle of a huge vin chaud tasting seisson.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@rob@rar, this shows the window of clear weather on Friday.
Thanks, should make for a straightforward drive.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Given that we should be rejoicing about the fabulous startup conditions (well done the south for joining the party), I am reluctant to engage. However, I obsessively surf across many sites and forums and have the ability to digest and form my own opinion of conditions and forecasts using everybody's input (and I really do mean obsessive).
I don't suppose anyone berates the boss of GFS because GFS is stating the complete opposite of what ECM is saying?

So keep it coming, all of you, I want to know it all.
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Yes, but you @zzz, are just contrary.

Are we forecasting excellence for Sunday?
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I don't mind a bit of cold in the East........Dec 23rd onwards SVP
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Is it possible for both the USA and Europe to have epic seasons? Been rather quiet from over the pond whereas last year it just kept coming.....
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@under a new name,

I think we might be. Powder Bob making an appearance too.
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Both ECM and GFS 12z now favouring a return to colder temperatures on 23 December. So milder conditions look relatively short lasting (four days) and for now at least unlikely to extend to Christmas.

Snow over the next week looks weighted towards the eastern end of the northern Alps.

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An extract from SLF’s weather outlook for Switzerland [my bold].

In Valais a high avalanche danger will be encountered in some regions

https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#snowpack

”Weather forecast through Friday, 15.12.2017

During the night snowfall over widespread areas is anticipated. In the western part of Lower Valais it will be intensive. The snowfall level will be at low lying areas. The snowfall is expected to slacken off in the early morning hours. In the inneralpine and southern regions, it will become increasingly sunny. In the other regions of Switzerland, skies will frequently be overcast, but it is expected to remain predominantly dry.

Fresh snow

Between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon:

regions of Valais along the French border: 30 to 50 cm; from place to place as much as 60 cm;

remaining parts of Valais, Vaud Alps, Jura region: 15 to 30 cm;

remaining sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, northern Grisons, Main Alpine Ridge from Gotthard into Val Bregaglia: 10 to 20 cm;

remaining regions of Grisons, central Ticino, Sotto Ceneri: 5 to 10 cm.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, approximately -7 °C.

Wind

Strong velocity westerly winds, reaching storm velocity in some places during the night.

Outlook through Sunday, 17.12.2017

In northern and western regions, skies will frequently be heavily overcast, accompanied by intermittent snowfall down to low lying areas. In the Upper Valais and in Grisons, only a small amount of snowfall is anticipated, bright intervals are possible. The wind will be blowing at moderate strength from west to north. On the southern flank of the Alps it will be predominantly sunny as a result of moderate strength northerly winds.

The danger of dry-snow avalanches will decrease in the Valais. On the northern flank of the Alps, danger levels could increase somewhat. In the remaining regions of Switzerland, avalanche danger levels are not expected to change significantly. Gliding avalanches continue to be possible, particularly on the northern flank of the Alps and in the Lower Valais.”
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00z GFS and ECM reduce the length of the mild sunny spell slightly, currently 20-23 December followed by cold temperatures and snow. Beyond that GFS suggests a continuation of colder and unsettled weather whereas ECM eyes up a bit more high pressure.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
00z GFS and ECM reduce the length of the mild sunny spell slightly, currently 20-23 December followed by cold temperatures and snow. Beyond that GFS suggests a continuation of colder and unsettled weather whereas ECM eyes up a bit more high pressure.


Great news, long may it continue! Thanks.
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Quote:

zzz
hors Piste
Posts: 631
Location: Morzine, France

Hang on, one minute everyone is slating poor old Whitegold for saying it’s going to warm up at xmas, and that the freeze/thaw will make the pistes icy(it will if it happens). Next minute you’re all agreeing with him!

Ps Personally I quite like his direct speak. I know he does it to wind everyone up but he’s often correct


I think it is more that he latches onto any piece of potential bad news, everyone is talking about the huge dumps of snow arriving on a daily basis and he will focus on the potential for a warm few hours in 3 weeks time and how it will create havoc and ruin everyone's season.Was it him last year posting pictures of green fields telling us how some resorts were having the worst season in history, someone else (might have been noza) picked up on the fact the pictures were hugely out of date.

He is the grim reaper of thread and can't help himself.
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