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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I was a little doubtful so googled it

http://strangesounds.org/2017/07/italian-beach-turns-white-after-freak-hailstorm-sweeps-across-grottammare-video.html

Looks like it was a freak hail storm but "10-15cm of ice" is still pretty damn impressive.
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Daishan wrote:
I was a little doubtful so googled it

http://strangesounds.org/2017/07/italian-beach-turns-white-after-freak-hailstorm-sweeps-across-grottammare-video.html

Looks like it was a freak hail storm but "10-15cm of ice" is still pretty damn impressive.


oh ye of little faith, if it is white and cold, well you can ski on it.
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Temperatures picking up into the weekend following the recent cool spell.

Here's SLF's roundup.

"Review of weather since Tuesday 25.07.

Tuesday and Wednesday in the north were very cloudy with precipitation. On Wednesday there were some bright spells in the west. In the south and southern Upper Valais it was partly sunny on both days. The wind was moderate and, at elevated altitudes, strong at times from the west to northwest.

The snowfall level was approximately 2500 m; in the northeast it was 2200 m at times. The following amounts of snow fell in the period from Monday 24.07. through Wednesday 26.07., but the indicated quantities were reached only above approximately 3000 m as a consequence of the warm ground:

- Les Diablerets and Wildhorn, northern flank of the Alps from the eastern Bernese Oberland to the St Gallen Alps, Prättigau: 40 to 80 cm, and even more in some localities in the vicinity of the Klausen Pass in particular

- Western Bernese Oberland, extreme west of Lower Valais: 30 to 40 cm

- Other regions: 10 bis 30 cm over a wide area, but practically dry in southern Upper Valais and Ticino

Weather forecast through Friday 28.07.

Thursday and Friday in the north will be mostly cloudy and a little precipitation is possible in the central and eastern parts of the northern flank of the Alps in particular. In the afternoon there will be some bright spells in the west on each of the next two days. In Valais and the south it will be partly sunny on both days. The wind direction will change from northwesterly to westerly. In the high Alpine regions it will be moderate to strong. By Friday afternoon the zero degree level will rise to approximately 4000 m.

Outlook

The weekend will be fairly sunny and warm. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the second half of the day. The avalanche danger will continue to decrease. People can still trigger isolated avalanches, in particular on extreme north facing slopes in the high Alpine regions."


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Tignes yesterday morning at glacier level

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Refuge Torino in Italy at 3300 meters

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Grottammare. Adriatic coast, just north of Rome latitude..........
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Doh!
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Summers over...for the north Sad
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"One of the warmest July's in the last twenty years" in Austria.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/einer-der-20-juli-monate-der-messgeschichte

Overall temperatures running about 1.0C above average. Obergurgl (Tirol, 1942 m) still managed 1.9C in the recent chilly spell (a distant memory in the heat haze on the plains right now... 36C and blazing sunshine at present).

Actually quite wet. Overall 10% above average, but distribution varied widely depending where you were. The mountains from Arlberg to Wechsel had 25%-75% more rain than normal though Steiermark and Burgenland in the south had 25-67% less.

Lightning strikes (Blitzeinschlägen - good word) were around average for July at 47,000.

Apricots ripened 11 days earlier than usual.

Statistically this is proven to mean significant snowfall from 11 to 18 January. Fact. Though the correlation is surprisingly less clear cut and quite arguably completely non existent during even years (and odd ones)*



* nonsense obviously, but the bit about early apricots this year is true.
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Something very welcoming about this cooler unsettled spell. Lots of angry thunderstorms cracking off.
Live update from the potager this evening, Greens 2, Reds 2. Pretty early.



And no sign of high pressure taking over the alps anytime soon....Aug 7th-9th looks almost chilly.
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Definitely not cooler further east. Sweltering. But tomatoes doing rather well too!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
france is WAY better than austria, for tomatoes.
low pressure waves rolling east over the next week or so, brief z500 anomalies, and in just 5 or 6 months it will all make sense
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la Sarenne / Alpe d'Huez

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Tignes today



they claim a couple of reds "open"
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Les Deux Alpes have turned the glacier webcams OFF but here are screen grabs from earlier





I'd say summer skiing is pretty much over for the moment in France.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen wrote:


Statistically this is proven to mean significant snowfall from 11 to 18 January. Fact. Though the correlation is surprisingly less clear cut and quite arguably completely non existent during even years (and odd ones)*

* nonsense obviously, but the bit about early apricots this year is true.


Laughing

Lovely weather here lately. 34°C at 7pm in Garmisch yesterday. The temperatures must have melted some of the last of the snow clinging stubbornly on - the Griesenschlucht on the Loisach was running at a dreamy level for kayaking (quite a few changes after the almost-floods last week) but very (happily!) cold water!
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Those webcam shot grabs are depressing ...
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Adriatic Sea hits 29°C in places, +3°C compared to average: http://www.severe-weather.eu/news/extremely-warm-adriatic-sea-and-getting-much-warmer-by-the-end-of-the-week/

I imagine that's going to result in some pretty intense storms somewhere!
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@clarky999, pretty hot today. +5.8C above average in Austria for August.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/klima-aktuell/klimatothek

Plenty of lightning over Salzburg Festung the other evening.
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5th heatwave of the summer for France

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How bad are those shots relative to standard summer skiing in France? I've always thought of heading over for a few days with the kids. Somewhat less so now.
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8611 wrote:
How bad are those shots relative to standard summer skiing in France? I've always thought of heading over for a few days with the kids. Somewhat less so now.




Some glaciers are barely there now. Never seen the Kitz this low.
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Incoming snowsure event in just 144 hours, possibly to 2600m. Just 6 degrees overnight according to YR for 1200m. This would be 50cm of snow if we fast forward to jan.

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...meant 50cm to low levels. Here's a visual aid.

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3c above average? Presumably not great news for early winter snow from the south although it may increase instability when the cold and warmer air masses meet ?

Warmer sea temperatures around the uk are generally not good news for snow here, but then we are surrounded by sea. snowHead
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The extreme heat of the last few days is subsiding. Heavy rainfall likely in the eastern Alps. Below average temperatures towards the end of the week with snow line dropping to around 2100m, in places you could see 10-20cm before temperatures rise again.
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davidof wrote:
5th heatwave of the summer for France



Shocking photos and charts.

The ice gets smaller and blacker every year.

The Summer skiing era is pretty much over for Germany and France. And coming to a close in Italy, Austria and Switzerland.

Suspect Zermatt will probably be the last skiable Summer glacier standing. Some time around 2025-2030.

Was in Chamonix last month and it was ~35c / ~95f in the town and water was pouring off the AdM summit at >3700m at 730am.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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8611 wrote:
How bad are those shots relative to standard summer skiing in France? I've always thought of heading over for a few days with the kids. Somewhat less so now.


There were 5 glaciers in France that were skiable 12 months a year up until the 1980s / 1990s.

They started to melt in the 1980s and accelerated hugely after the legendary 2003 ultrahot French Summer.

Today, in 2017, there are 2, perhaps 3, glaciers that can be skied 8-9 months a year at best.

Take the children next Summer and make sure they experience Summer skiing at least once.

By the time they become adults, proper Summer skiing will be gone.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
We had a day in Saas Fee last week, the glacier was actually in pretty good condition.
Actual snow to ski on....jus three of us punters and evrybody (and I do mean everybody) else was a serious racer.
ALL the prime FIS World Cup teams were there except the Austrians: France, Switz, Italy, Canada, USA, Sweden, Slovenia, Russia, Spain
I shared a TBar with Luc Alphond and Hansdottir from Sweden too.
Last November I got to chat at length with a nice lady racer...at the time she was a Remind-Me-Of-Your-Name....Ilka Stuhec!!

The chat on the T was that Saas Fee is the last decent summer Glacier and that the Austrians are only not there for misplaced nationalistic reasons.

Next week they leave en-mass for Argentina
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As discussed on the Queenstown 2017 Queenstown 2017 thread Mt Hutts having a strong snow season,

http://www.mountainwatch.com/snow-news/37519924/Snow-Season-Outlook-2017---August-Update---New-Zealand---The-Beast-to-the-East

And a lot of snow heading for the Australian resorts right now.



Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Sat 5-08-17 17:45; edited 1 time in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
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langball wrote:
@Whitegold, you are right again. Nice to have input from someone who is more concerned with facts than pandering to the snowflakes on here.

Recently watched 'Chasing Ice' on Netflix. Facinating and frightening documentary on the vanishing glaciers. Time lapse sequences over just 2years show mountains of ice deflating like a balloon.

Still doesn't mean we won't have many more great alpine ski seasons. From what I've read, we may end up with drier and warmer than average winters, but with more intense storms.



Yeah, a lot of precious snowflakes and weather egomaniacs poking their heads in the sand about melting Summer glaciers and shrinking Winter snowfall.

This is the Morteratsch glacier in Switzerland in 1985 (top) and 2016 (bottom).

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@Whitegold, no, no. Don't worry it's just you and your persistent trolling year after year. Nothing to do with climate change.
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Temperatures in Europe today.

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Absolutely. Sweltering, though not as hot as it was midweek in Austria. Nevertheless the number of days over 30C is already 50% above average in many regions of Austria according to ZAMG.
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Yes our sport doesn't have quite the same reliable future that say ......sailing has Sad
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People would also worry if the glaciers were gaining mass, the climate just doesn't and never has stayed static.

whitegold it must be depressing for you viewing every weather event as some kind of sign that the world is ending, you should try and shake that confirmation bias.
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Heavy rain hitting Tirol and Salzburgerland. The video is a wall of water and mud racing through Dorfgastein.

http://www.salzburg24.at/wetterwarnung-heftige-gewitter-mit-hagel-im-pinzgau/5060829

Video from Salzburg24
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Some more footage from Dorfgastein.

https://twitter.com/AwoeTeam/status/893929971529506816

The mud and water quite blatantly ignoring the stop sign.
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And a torrent pouring through a stream in Tux.

https://twitter.com/awoeteam/status/893881791114862593
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Intense summer storms have continued to wash away roads, dump hail and cause floods through parts of central Austria today.

http://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/Unwetter-Alarm-im-ganzen-Land/293963710

Should be calmer as the week starts, though colder weather and snow down to 2200m by the end of the week before warming up.
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