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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The first major snowfall of the season has abated here in the Pyrenees. After 48 hours of snow the sun has returned but the temperatures remain cold.

Yesterday saw around 30cm above 1500m with snow down to 1000m. The forecast is for rising temperatures for a couple of days however another cold snap is due at the end of the weekend.

Here at Luchon-Superbagneres the canons have been running, and it is planned to have some of the key pistes groomed today packing down the snow in preparation for the season opening hopefully on the 2nd of December.

Screen shot from the webcam early this morning... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

Anyone have a feel for what might open at Obergurgl and Solden over the next week or two?


I skied at Obergurgl during opening week last year, in mid-November, and I seem to recall that most of the main runs were open, right down to the village and also Pil (below Hochgurgl). Obergurgl is due to open on Nov 16 and judging from webcams, much the same will probably apply as last year.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
comish wrote:
Like it. Nice pict Clarky.

Anyone have a feel for what might open at Obergurgl and Solden over the next week or two? For example, what are the chances the Gaislachkogl side opens at Solden?

Just booked last minute frequent flyer tickets from California. Combo wifey work trip to Berlin with some skiing somewhere nearish to Munich/Zurich! Stoked.


Thanks!

This is what I said about Obergurgl opening day last year. More snow this year, so I reckon there's a good chance the majority of the resort will be open.

clarky999 wrote:
Obergurgl opened on Thursday, so we drove up to check it out on Friday. Weather wasn't great with a strong föhn blowing, but we had a lot of fun and it was certainly much better and less crowded than Stubai! Couple of phone shots of snow cover:





I'm not sure how many lifts/pistes were open but it seemed like the majority of the resort. Offpiste was very crusty and rocky, but there was excellent coverage on all pistes, with firm but nicely grippy and chalky snow. As the weather looked worse on the Obergurgl side we stayed in Hochgurgl, mostly lapping the long reds and blues from the top of the Hochgurglbahn gondola down to the valley. The snow was getting a little soft and almost slushy on the last section, but really nice to ski long runs to stretch the legs after mostly skiing the shorter pistes at Stubai lately.

Looking up the valley a little and Obergurgl was pulling a good Mordor impression:

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Promising. Am very tempted to head over next Friday for a few days. I guess Innsbruck is the best flight option from London and that might work. Then train/bus or hire car and stay in a guesthouse. Any thoughts/suggestions?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I usually fly into Innsbruck and hire a car - an easy drive of 1 and a quarter hours.

Have also driven from Munich a few times - about 3.5 hours driving, good roads.

In the past, when not with the family (when we use hotels) I have stayed at Pension Michael in Obergurgl. V reasonable cost, v friendly, v good location, free parking.
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Thank you for the tip!
Very Happy
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
In contrast to this morning... GFS has swung back towards a colder spell next weekend (from 19/11).



Which way will ECM go?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
ECM and GFS both getting behind a cold plunge next weekend. Meanwhile plenty of snow heading for the northern side of the Alps in the next few days.
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SLF weather outlook for Swiss Alps [my bold].

”Weather outlook through Saturday, 11 November

On Friday night in northern regions, a small amount of snowfall is anticipated above approximately 1300 m. During the daytime on Saturday, skies will remain overcast and the snowfall will increase in intensity during the course of the day. The snowfall level will ascend to approximately 1800 m. In the furthermost southern regions it will be rather sunny. In northern regions and at high altitudes in general. a strong to storm-strength wind will be blowing from westerly directions.
Between Friday evening and Saturday evening above approximatey 1800 m, the following amounts of snowfall are anticipated:

- westernmost part of Lower Valais, northern Alpine Ridge, northern Prättigau, Silvretta, Samnaun: 10 to 20 cm;

- remaining parts of Valais, remaining parts of northern Grisons: 5 to 10 cm;

- remaining regions of Switzerland: only a few centimeters; in the furthermost south, no snow whatsoever.

Outlook

On Sunday and on Monday, it is expected to snow heavily in northern regions. The snowfall level on Saturday night will be just under 2000 m, subsequently descend to below 1000 m on Sunday evening. In southern regions only a small amount of snowfall is anticipated and it will be intermittently sunny on both days. The wind will be blowing at strong to storm strength from westerly to northerly directions on both days.
The avalanche danger will increase significantly in northern regions. During the course of the day on Sunday, increasingly frequent naturally triggered avalanches can be expected above approximately 2000 m. On Sunday night, the danger level 4, "high" could well be reached. Below 2000 m as a result of the rainfall, naturally triggered moist sluffs can be expected on Sunday in particular.
In southern regions, the avalanche danger will increase somewhat as a result of the storm winds. The major danger there will come from the freshly formed snowdrifts.”
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Cold back end to November on 06z GFS.
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Some melting in the Alps next week. Getting hotter.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Whitegold, you really are an utter waste of time and one of the small number of posters who seem to seek to be unhelpful and nasty on this forum year in year out. From much colder than average conditions for the time of year it will briefly get milder than average before the temperatures drop again.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
You tell them pessimists Noza! NehNeh

Winter is definitely arrived at Hintertux, snow all the way down to the valley with more on the way right now. Albeit a bit tough snow on some spots, had a bit of a crash two days ago Smile
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Well to me it's looking like the best start to a November possible. Of course past and current weather has no bearing on future weather, but for me, selfishly, a decent ski in the first weeks of December in the 3vs is pretty much assured.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Not looking too shabby out in the Northern parts of North America for November. Promising indeed. Have skied three of the past 4 weekends. What month is it again? Very Happy


Then there's this little tid bit to cross your fingers over. Not sure what it means for Euroland, but should deliver some snow this winter in my neck of the woods!

http://opensnow.com/news/post/noaa-issues-la-ni-a-advisory-for-the-2017-18-winter
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sadly raining in Mürren, Switzerland at alt.1650m, temps meant to be dropping Sunday afternoon Sad
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
SLF weather outlook for the Swiss Alps.

”Weather forecast through Sunday, 12.11.2017

In northern regions, a great deal of snowfall is anticipated. The snowfall level will ascend in western regions during the night to approximately 2000 m, in eastern regions to 1800 m. During the course of the day, it will then descend to 1500 m, subsequently in the evening to below 1000 m.In southern regions skies will frequently be overcast and in the Alps a small amount of snowfall is expected above approximately 1500 m.

Fresh snow

Between Saturday evening and Sunday evening above approximately 2000 m, the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated:

- furthermost western part of Lower Valais, regions north of an imaginary Rhine-Rhone line, northern Prättigau: 30 to 50 cm;

- remaining parts of Valais not including the Simplon region, remaining parts of the Gotthard region, remaining parts of northern Grisons, Lower Engadine north of the Inn: 15 to 30 cm;

- Simplon region, remaining parts of Ticino and Grisons: 5 to 15 cm over widespread areas; in the furthermost southern regions, less.

Temperature

at midday at 2000 m, -1 °C, descending during the afternoon

Wind

in northern regions and at high altitudes in general, strong to storm-strength winds from westerly directions, in the evening shifting to northwesterly

Outlook through Tuesday, 14.11.2017

Monday

In northern regions, heavy snowfall is anticipated. The snowfall level will be between 600 and 800 m. A strong to storm-strength northerly wind will be blowing. In the major areas of precipitation of the north, the avalanche situation is critical. Naturally triggered avalanches can be expected, in isolated cases even large-sized ones. Exposed and high-altitude transportation routes may be placed at risk. Also in the remaining regions, avalanches can easily be triggered. The danger applies to the alpine snow sports terrain more than anywhere else, however.

Tuesday

In the early morning hours, the snowfall will come to an end in northern regions. During the course of the day, bright intervals are expected. Winds will slacken off. The avalanche danger will incrementally diminish.”
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Chris Brookes, get a grip man. It’s only the first half of November.
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Toadman wrote:
Spoiler
Not looking too shabby out in the Northern parts of North America for November. Promising indeed. Have skied three of the past 4 weekends. What month is it again? Very Happy


Then there's this little tid bit to cross your fingers over. Not sure what it means for Euroland, but should deliver some snow this winter in my neck of the woods!

http://opensnow.com/news/post/noaa-issues-la-ni-a-advisory-for-the-2017-18-winter


Crossing my fingers for you guys!
But seriously, what impact does La Nina have on europe?
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Whistler, Canada, looks set for 5 to 10 feet of snowfall in the next few days.
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staffsan wrote:
Toadman wrote:
Spoiler
Not looking too shabby out in the Northern parts of North America for November. Promising indeed. Have skied three of the past 4 weekends. What month is it again? Very Happy


Then there's this little tid bit to cross your fingers over. Not sure what it means for Euroland, but should deliver some snow this winter in my neck of the woods!

http://opensnow.com/news/post/noaa-issues-la-ni-a-advisory-for-the-2017-18-winter


Crossing my fingers for you guys!
But seriously, what impact does La Nina have on europe?

Not a whole lot.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/11/european-snow-season-outlook-1718.html
My musings for the season ahead. IMO looking to be a good season, with lots of indicators of a -AO.
Includes insight into various climate drivers, and the important EC Seasonal model output.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
SLF on conditions and outlook for Swiss Alps.

https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html

”Observed weather

During the night in northern regions above approximately 1200 m, there was a small amount of snowfall. Following a brief interval, the snowfall continued throughout the day in northern regions. The snowfall level ascended by evening to nearly 1600 m. Only in the furthermost southern regions was it rather sunny.

Fresh snow

Between Friday evening and Saturday evening above approximately 1600 m, the following amounts of fresh snow were registered.

- northern flank of the Alps: 10 to 20 cm;

- Valais, northern Grisons: 5 to 10 cm;

- remaining regions of Switzerland: only a few centimeters; i

- in the furthermost south, no snow at all.

Temperature

at midday at 2000 m, 0° C

Wind

on the northern flank of the Alps and in the Valais, moderate to strong-velocity, elsewhere light to moderate strength winds from westerly directions.

Weather forecast through Sunday, 12.11.2017

In northern regions, a great deal of snowfall is anticipated. The snowfall level will ascend in western regions during the night to approximately 2000 m, in eastern regions to 1800 m. During the course of the day, it will then descend to 1500 m, subsequently in the evening to below 1000 m. In southern regions skies will frequently be overcast and in the Alps a small amount of snowfall is expected above approximately 1500 m.

Fresh snow

Between Saturday evening and Sunday evening above approximately 2000 m, the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated:

- furthermost western part of Lower Valais, regions north of an imaginary Rhine-Rhone line, northern Prättigau: 30 to 50 cm;

- remaining parts of Valais not including the Simplon region, remaining parts of the Gotthard region, remaining parts of northern Grisons, Lower Engadine north of the Inn: 15 to 30 cm;

- Simplon region, remaining parts of Ticino and Grisons: 5 to 15 cm over widespread areas; in the furthermost southern regions, less.

Temperature

at midday at 2000 m, -1 °C, descending during the afternoon

Wind

in northern regions and at high altitudes in general, strong to storm-strength winds from westerly directions, in the evening shifting to northwesterly

Outlook through Tuesday, 14.11.2017

Monday

In northern regions, heavy snowfall is anticipated. The snowfall level will be between 600 and 800 m. A strong to storm-strength northerly wind will be blowing. In the major areas of precipitation of the north, the avalanche situation is critical. Naturally triggered avalanches can be expected, in isolated cases even large-sized ones. Exposed and high-altitude transportation routes may be placed at risk. Also in the remaining regions, avalanches can easily be triggered. The danger applies to the alpine snow sports terrain more than anywhere else, however.

Tuesday

In the early morning hours, the snowfall will come to an end in northern regions. During the course of the day, bright intervals are expected. Winds will slacken off. The avalanche danger will incrementally diminish.”
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@Jellybeans1000, I enjoyed that - thanks - although some (in fact most) of those graphs are beyond me.

I see quite a few mentions of 'ridging' over the alps this winter which I take to mean high pressure i.e. dry and cold.

I guess that's not the threat it once was in these days where snow-making has improved so much in quantity and quality.
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@red 27
Cheers. Yeah ridging means high pressure, dry and cold.
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Jellybeans1000 wrote:
@red 27
Cheers. Yeah ridging means high pressure, dry and cold.


That's disappointing. It sounded ever so slightly seedy and probably painful to me. Like something that would get you fired if you googled it.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
It’s already good above 2000m. Should be great after this next dump!

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@BobinCH, very nice.

Meanwhile St Christoph Webcam at 1800m



And snow in Lech https://www.facebook.com/lechzuers/videos/10156006075763447/
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
First powder alert on wepowder! http://wepowder.com/en/forum/topic/249042

For thursday and wednesday. Morris says best places to go is austrian glaciers. Guess who's leaving an austrian glacier tomorrow Neh Neh
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Liking the look of ECMWF 12Z snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Steady puking at 1300 meters in Tux right now! Its gonna be windy tomorrow but i cant wait to get out!



Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sun 12-11-17 19:40; edited 1 time in total
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Wormser Hütte at 2307m in Schruns recorded gusts up to 149kmh earlier today.

@hd, both ECM and GFS continue to suggest colder weather pushing down next Sunday. Less clear at this stage how much snow would be involved.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
@BobinCH, very nice.

Meanwhile St Christoph Webcam at 1800m



And snow in Lech https://www.facebook.com/lechzuers/videos/10156006075763447/


Top of Lech, above 2500m, should get 50-100cm in the next 1-2 days.

Conditions up high in Austria starting to look very good.
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@Whitegold, Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

A positive post!!!!! Shocked Shocked Shocked
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Around 1400m this morning ❄️❄️❄️

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ECM has a much colder set up from next weekend this morning. GFS backing off a little.
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hello there snowheads - happy 2017! yes! looking good for a little early season jaunt maybe...
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Glancing at 06z GFS you can see further spells of cooler weather (next Sunday/Monday then Friday/Saturday) interspersed with milder than average weather. So relatively autumnal with at present no sign of an extended spell in the freezer nor of long term mild dry weather. So expect the snow in the valleys to retreat between cold blasts and the higher snow to consolidate.

The NAO has been positive so far for November (and that’s been born out with the weather systems generally favoring the northern side of the Alps).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html
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nozawaonsen wrote:


The NAO has been positive so far for November (and that’s been born out with the weather systems generally favoring the northern side of the Alps).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html

Not for long. Both EPS and GEFS are looking at a -AO and -NAO. Could be interesting with different climate drivers changing ways in the next week or so....
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@Jellybeans1000, what would -ao and -nao mean for the alps?
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