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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Hot and thundery feel to things at present in the Alps. Possible snow for Hintertux glacier next weekend. Less good for the trail run I'm meant to be running. But we'll see.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
According to ZAMG summer is currently running 2.8C above average for Austria. The snow depth at the Sonnblick weather station (3000m) is just under 160cm compared to the 1981-2010 average of 285cm. Lower down Austria has already see many more than average days over 30C.

A colder spell coming up this weekend before it warms up again next week.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
For what it's worth ENSO looks pretty neutral for Autumn and Winter and has done for a while.
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
Hey Nowza, do you know if there's any long term/large scale weather system that has an overall effect on Japan? (You know the sort of thing, El Niño for the PNW bad, La Niña good.)
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@rogg, the main one is ENSO (so both La Niña and El Niño). La Niña tends to bring better snowfall for Japan, but it isn't a guarantee. At this stage neutral is favored which means likely impact is low in any case.
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
Ta.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Ta.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
rogg wrote:
do you know if there's any long term/large scale weather system that has an overall effect on Japan? (You know the sort of thing, El Niño for the PNW bad, La Niña good.)

La Niña tends to mean a good season, and El Niño tends to mean a poor season. But there is defnitely outliers. There are people who have lots of data on these sort of things in Japanese snowfall, who I can show to you.

This may be of interest. Relates to Japanese snow season.

"Relatively cold (warm) winter temperatures in Japan are associated with strong (weak) East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) (Jhun and Lee 2004). In turn, the EAWM is positively correlated with autumn snow cover in Siberia, China, and eastern Russia and the strength of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High. It is furthermore negatively correlated with the NP on an annual timescale and with the Arctic Oscillation (AO), NP, NAO, and PDO on a decadal timescale (Jhun and Lee 2004). However, Jhun and Lee (2004) found no correlation between NP and PDO. An influence of EAWM by AO through the Siberian High on a decadal timescale is postulated (Gong et al 2001; Jhun and Lee 2004). NP is positively correlated with temperature in Japan (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994). The AO is positively correlated with temperatures in Eastern China and negatively correlated with Siberian High, while Scandinavian Pattern (Scand) is negatively correlated with temperatures in Eastern China and positively correlated with the Siberian High (Gong et al 2001). This fits with findings of enhanced incidence rates of cold winter events in East Asia during AO2 (Thompson and Wallace 2001). In Hokkaido, winter precipitation is negatively associated with the Siberian High (Aizen et al 2001). Phase 7 of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the La Nina phase is found to cause very strong winters in Japan by enhancing the winter monsoon (Moon et al 2011)."
http://www.bioone.org/doi/pdf/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-12-00062.1
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Erm thanks JellyB, I think. I'm none too sure what an awful lot of that means, but I guess I should do a bit of reading.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@rogg, the key point is long term indicators are just that. They may give you an indication of which way the probability is leaning, but often not much more. And in terms of the weather on the day or that week they aren't really relevant.

Definitely a fresh (cool) feeling in Tirol today after some heavy rainfall yesterday.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Thanks noza. I've skied/boarded for 40+ years so totally appreciate you can't forecast this far out, even a good season/bad season isn't really possible for Europe. I'm just a bit exited about 3 weeks of Japanuary this year so my forecast stoke is high.

I am a big sucker for the 'old man if the mountain' forecasts too. 'The snow will be deep this year, the male marmots couldn't reach the bottom flowers of the genepis on midsummers eve' type thing.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
rogg wrote:
Erm thanks JellyB, I think. I'm none too sure what an awful lot of that means, but I guess I should do a bit of reading.

It's okay if it's too complex. Just saying there is a lot more that goes on, other than ENSO. And it's Neutral, so you have to rely on other factors.
Anyway Japan will have heaps of snow, it will dump and you will have heaps of fun. Have a good time!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Hot weather this week.

Meanwhile...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

"All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to stay ENSO neutral for the rest of 2017."
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
According to ZAMG summer is currently running 2.8C above average for Austria. The snow depth at the Sonnblick weather station (3000m) is just under 160cm compared to the 1981-2010 average of 285cm. Lower down Austria has already see many more than average days over 30C.

A colder spell coming up this weekend before it warms up again next week.



Was in Chamonix a few days ago. It was ~35c / ~95f in town. The melt up on the AdM at ~3800m was like a torrent at 7am. The glacier above the town has shrivelled to about the size of an icecube.

It really felt like the end of days for high alpinism.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Whereas there was plenty of fresh snow for the runners on the Silvretta 3000 on Saturday. Really felt like the end of summer. Wasn't of course mind you...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
Whereas there was plenty of fresh snow for the runners on the Silvretta 3000 on Saturday. Really felt like the end of summer. Wasn't of course mind you...


That is one day of shortterm weather. Was at Grossglockner last week and it had fresh snow for a day or two at ~2300m in peak Summer.

Chamonix is showing the destruction of longterm warming. From 1500-4000m, one can see where glaciers are shrinking season by season. Like puddles on a sunny day. The Bossons Glacier, above the town, is looking pathetic.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Whitegold, yep your right s'all over. You've been saying for years. Apocalypse, end of days, Armageddon. But there you go I guess. Had to happen one of these days. Shame it had to be a Wednesday and all. Still. Could you just pull the door to as you leave?

Meanwhile...


http://youtube.com/v/QGErt4CfLD0
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I love this. Having chosen to ignore certain posters, I can only imagine the doomsday warning I can't read. Almost tempted to have a cheeky peek - not. Toofy Grin
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