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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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Hot and thundery feel to things at present in the Alps. Possible snow for Hintertux glacier next weekend. Less good for the trail run I'm meant to be running. But we'll see.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
According to ZAMG summer is currently running 2.8C above average for Austria. The snow depth at the Sonnblick weather station (3000m) is just under 160cm compared to the 1981-2010 average of 285cm. Lower down Austria has already see many more than average days over 30C.

A colder spell coming up this weekend before it warms up again next week.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
For what it's worth ENSO looks pretty neutral for Autumn and Winter and has done for a while.
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Hey Nowza, do you know if there's any long term/large scale weather system that has an overall effect on Japan? (You know the sort of thing, El Niño for the PNW bad, La Niña good.)
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@rogg, the main one is ENSO (so both La Niña and El Niño). La Niña tends to bring better snowfall for Japan, but it isn't a guarantee. At this stage neutral is favored which means likely impact is low in any case.
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Ta.
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Ta.
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rogg wrote:
do you know if there's any long term/large scale weather system that has an overall effect on Japan? (You know the sort of thing, El Niño for the PNW bad, La Niña good.)

La Niña tends to mean a good season, and El Niño tends to mean a poor season. But there is defnitely outliers. There are people who have lots of data on these sort of things in Japanese snowfall, who I can show to you.

This may be of interest. Relates to Japanese snow season.

"Relatively cold (warm) winter temperatures in Japan are associated with strong (weak) East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) (Jhun and Lee 2004). In turn, the EAWM is positively correlated with autumn snow cover in Siberia, China, and eastern Russia and the strength of the Aleutian Low and Siberian High. It is furthermore negatively correlated with the NP on an annual timescale and with the Arctic Oscillation (AO), NP, NAO, and PDO on a decadal timescale (Jhun and Lee 2004). However, Jhun and Lee (2004) found no correlation between NP and PDO. An influence of EAWM by AO through the Siberian High on a decadal timescale is postulated (Gong et al 2001; Jhun and Lee 2004). NP is positively correlated with temperature in Japan (Trenberth and Hurrell 1994). The AO is positively correlated with temperatures in Eastern China and negatively correlated with Siberian High, while Scandinavian Pattern (Scand) is negatively correlated with temperatures in Eastern China and positively correlated with the Siberian High (Gong et al 2001). This fits with findings of enhanced incidence rates of cold winter events in East Asia during AO2 (Thompson and Wallace 2001). In Hokkaido, winter precipitation is negatively associated with the Siberian High (Aizen et al 2001). Phase 7 of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the La Nina phase is found to cause very strong winters in Japan by enhancing the winter monsoon (Moon et al 2011)."
http://www.bioone.org/doi/pdf/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-12-00062.1
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Erm thanks JellyB, I think. I'm none too sure what an awful lot of that means, but I guess I should do a bit of reading.
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@rogg, the key point is long term indicators are just that. They may give you an indication of which way the probability is leaning, but often not much more. And in terms of the weather on the day or that week they aren't really relevant.

Definitely a fresh (cool) feeling in Tirol today after some heavy rainfall yesterday.
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Thanks noza. I've skied/boarded for 40+ years so totally appreciate you can't forecast this far out, even a good season/bad season isn't really possible for Europe. I'm just a bit exited about 3 weeks of Japanuary this year so my forecast stoke is high.

I am a big sucker for the 'old man if the mountain' forecasts too. 'The snow will be deep this year, the male marmots couldn't reach the bottom flowers of the genepis on midsummers eve' type thing.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
rogg wrote:
Erm thanks JellyB, I think. I'm none too sure what an awful lot of that means, but I guess I should do a bit of reading.

It's okay if it's too complex. Just saying there is a lot more that goes on, other than ENSO. And it's Neutral, so you have to rely on other factors.
Anyway Japan will have heaps of snow, it will dump and you will have heaps of fun. Have a good time!
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Hot weather this week.

Meanwhile...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

"All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to stay ENSO neutral for the rest of 2017."
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nozawaonsen wrote:
According to ZAMG summer is currently running 2.8C above average for Austria. The snow depth at the Sonnblick weather station (3000m) is just under 160cm compared to the 1981-2010 average of 285cm. Lower down Austria has already see many more than average days over 30C.

A colder spell coming up this weekend before it warms up again next week.



Was in Chamonix a few days ago. It was ~35c / ~95f in town. The melt up on the AdM at ~3800m was like a torrent at 7am. The glacier above the town has shrivelled to about the size of an icecube.

It really felt like the end of days for high alpinism.
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Whereas there was plenty of fresh snow for the runners on the Silvretta 3000 on Saturday. Really felt like the end of summer. Wasn't of course mind you...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
Whereas there was plenty of fresh snow for the runners on the Silvretta 3000 on Saturday. Really felt like the end of summer. Wasn't of course mind you...


That is one day of shortterm weather. Was at Grossglockner last week and it had fresh snow for a day or two at ~2300m in peak Summer.

Chamonix is showing the destruction of longterm warming. From 1500-4000m, one can see where glaciers are shrinking season by season. Like puddles on a sunny day. The Bossons Glacier, above the town, is looking pathetic.
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@Whitegold, yep your right s'all over. You've been saying for years. Apocalypse, end of days, Armageddon. But there you go I guess. Had to happen one of these days. Shame it had to be a Wednesday and all. Still. Could you just pull the door to as you leave?

Meanwhile...


http://youtube.com/v/QGErt4CfLD0
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I love this. Having chosen to ignore certain posters, I can only imagine the doomsday warning I can't read. Almost tempted to have a cheeky peek - not. Toofy Grin
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Hot in Europe (though with some cracking thunder storms). Hot in Utah.

July is the New Hades

http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.co.at/2017/07/july-is-new-hades.html?m=1
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@Whitegold, you are right again. Nice to have input from someone who is more concerned with facts than pandering to the snowflakes on here.

Recently watched 'Chasing Ice' on Netflix. Facinating and frightening documentary on the vanishing glaciers. Time lapse sequences over just 2years show mountains of ice deflating like a balloon.

Still doesn't mean we won't have many more great alpine ski seasons. From what I've read, we may end up with drier and warmer than average winters, but with more intense storms.
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@langball, @Whitegold's incensent trolling over a number of years, assertion of (often dubious) "facts" without providing anything to support them, repeated invocation of the apocalypse and his advice to all and sundry that they are better off skiing in the US regardless that most people on this forum would find that impractical are what gets him the reaction he receives.

As for climate change that is certainly a serious issue and one which should be treated as such.

But you are right to say that the impact of climate change on the Alps does not necessarily mean poor winters are guaranteed or that this change will be linear. Last winter had both exceptionally dry weather, but also the coldest January in 30 years in Austria with some of the heaviest snowfall reserved for spring.
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Meanwhile a break in the hot weather with slightly cooler temperatures in the Alps over the next couple of days.

Fresh snow on the glaciers down to around 2600m.

Before it heats up again...


http://youtube.com/v/GSiSDyxbQtE
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langball wrote:
@Whitegold, you are right again. Nice to have input from someone who is more concerned with facts than pandering to the snowflakes on here.

Recently watched 'Chasing Ice' on Netflix. Facinating and frightening documentary on the vanishing glaciers. Time lapse sequences over just 2years show mountains of ice deflating like a balloon.

Still doesn't mean we won't have many more great alpine ski seasons. From what I've read, we may end up with drier and warmer than average winters, but with more intense storms.


http://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/auvergne-rhone-alpes/haute-savoie/chamonix/massif-du-mont-blanc-fonte-glaciers-ete-estimee-1300289.html

Snow forecast at 2700m this week, but it will only hang around a few hours. Then back up to 35C temperatures in the valleys.
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This from page 2 of last year's thread.

nozawaonsen wrote:
A warming global climate does not necessarily mean less snow in winter. Indeed it can lead to above average snow. Of course what that means in specific regions will vary from year to year, one part of the northern hemisphere can be snowy another less so, one part of the Alps can be snowy another less so. But simplifying it to say that a warming global climate equates to a warmer winter or indeed less snow cover is an oversimplification. That's not to question the statistics showing the climate is warming nor to argue that it isn't changing global snow patterns.

Here's a recent piece from NOAA looking at the last Snow Year (snow year's run from 01 July).

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/happy-snow-new-year-ncei

"The 2015-16 snow season mirrored the general changes that we have seen in Northern Hemisphere snow cover over the past 50 years. There was an above-average snow cover during most of the cold season, but it was followed by a rapid decrease in snow cover during the transition seasons and during the warmest parts of the year. This past snow year and the longer-term trends in snow cover highlight that, even though we live in a warming world, the coldest parts of the year in the Northern Hemisphere can still support relatively large snow cover extents, at least for now."
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Current 30 day anomalies (cold September very clear).

Geneva -1.03C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn06700_30.gif

Radstadt -0.41C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn11147_30.gif


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Sat 7-10-17 8:09; edited 1 time in total
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Been a superb day for weather watching today.



One end of the valley, Col du Lautaret / Col du Galibier shrouded in really dense low ominous cloud and blowing about 50km down the valley whilst where we are I'm looking at a very blue sky on one side of the valley and dense cloud on the other - and the difference in forecast between here and La Grave sort of bears that out (see below) - but last evening forecast was for heavy rain in LG and we were on the terrace watching a superb end to the day with fantastic light on La Meije and various peaks

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions/1900/la_salle_les_alpes.htm

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions/1807/la_grave.htm

Back on to the subject of retreating glaciers, have to admit to being totally stunned at the various signs of where the glacier had been over the past 75 years when I missed a lift and had to hike up to the train station, when you actually see the differences in height and levels it is almost frightening on an apocalyptic level, we're not just talking a couple of hundred meters and that link @davidof, posted is just as alarming, but even though there are articles, films, features there is just an uneasy acceptance of it, which is mildly bonkers rolling eyes




Taken from an interview with Protect our Winters
The stats make for scary reading: in Chamonix, for example, where they’ve been measuring these things consistently for ages, cumulative snowfall has halved in the past 40 years. Then there are the glaciers: in the Alps, the surface area of glaciers has shrunk by 40% in the last 150 years (see La Mer de Glace, Chamonix, below, with the glacier level shown in 1990) and in the Pyrenees, it’s 80%.
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Sticking to the weather, (skirting the obvious apocalypse observations,) in Madrid 2 weeks ago historic 40 degrees high measured, and 47.5 in Cordoba.
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Worth a read.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/early-summer-heat-wave-europe

Although that high pressure pattern has slipped for now it looks like returning at least for a while next week.
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Currently +9C here at 1274 metres. That's pretty damn cold for this time of year.
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@telford_mike, weather very "volatile" here too and a chilly wind but here at 1,400 not down to single figs, but yesterday chose MTB over road bike to avoid the wind and bike computer was reading 29.5 in the direct sunshine.

Charts show a series of fronts tracking across all week, though forecast has things settling down a little from tomorrow.

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SLF on the current unsettled weather.

"Over the last few days the weather was partly sunny, but prone to thunderstorms. On Monday, 24.07, skies were heavily overcast and there was some precipitation. All in all over the last 5 days until Monday afternoon, there has been 20 to 50 mm of rainfall over widespread areas. The snowfall level was at approximately 3200 to 3400 m for a long time, then descended to below 3000 m over the course of the day on Monday. Above approximately 3500 m on the Valais part of the Main Alpine Ridge, there was approximately 20 to 30 cm of fresh fallen snow registered, in the Bernina region as much as 40 cm of new fallen snow. On Monday, the wind shifted from southwesterly to westerly and in some places was blowing at moderate strength.

Weather outlook through Wednesday, 26.07

On Tuesday and on Wednesday, a moderate to strong-velocity northwesterly wind will deliver moist and cool air masses to Switzerland. The snowfall level is expected to descend down to approximately 2200 m on Monday night, subsequently ascend to about 2500 m. In western regions, bright intervals are anticipated in high alpine regions during the course of the day on Wednesday. In the furthermost southern regions, it is expected to be predominantly sunny on both days, accompanied by northerly winds.
Above approximately 3000 m between Monday afternoon and Wednesday evening, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are expected:

- Northern Alpine Ridge from the Blüemlisalp as far as Liechtenstein, northern Prättigau and Silvretta: 50 to 90 cm, from place to place also more;

- Lower Valais as well as the remaining regions of the northern Alpine Ridge, northern Grisons and the northern part of the Lower Engadine: 20 to 50 cm;

- remaining regions of Switzerland, less; in the furthermost south it will remain dry.

Outlook

On Thursday and on Friday, it will be partly sunny and will remain dry for the most part. The zero-degree level is expected to ascend to above 4000 m. In high alpine regions the danger of dry-snow avalanches, in all aspects on Thursday, and on Friday predominantly on north-facing slopes, requires particular caution. Furthermore, as temperatures rise and the snow warms and is penetrated by solar radiation, wet-snow avalanches can be expected. In the major areas of precipitation, these wet-snow avalanches can reach dangerously large size."
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Engelberg webcams showing heavy, settling snow @ Jochpass (2222m) as per the SLF forecast above.

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@nozawaonsen, shame we don't get something like that for our part of the world!

Is that in English or have you translated - just that when looking at French the nuances of meteorological terminology can be very much lost in translation to me!!

For high altitude summer mountaineering dangerous conditions indeed!
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@Weathercam, the SLF site is a good one. Being Swiss most of the content is in French and German, but some of it (including the avalanche and weather bulletins) is translated into English and Italian.

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_EN

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_IT

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_FR

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_DE
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Snowy in Ischgl at 2300m too.

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Just had some friends drop in who were out here for the Etape du Tour and are now back on big motor cycles travelling up and down France.

They'd left Bessans below Col Iseran which was closed due to a landslide (day before they arrived in Val d'isere to find that out then had a very long ride to get around it to Bessans) and they'd encountered torrential rain and cold temps and sleet over the Galibier and could not believe it as they approached us with the sunshine which we've been sitting out in whilst again up the valley so grim.

They're now heading over the Izoard to Vars and that looks clear whilst further East a lot of precipitation.

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Some long term thoughts from TWO on the coming UK winter. Interesting summary of recent UK winters and a peer at the key indicators. Obviously at this stage all pretty speculative.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3898&title=Winter+2017/18+weather

"Summary - putting it all together

At this stage there isn't a clear signal for winter 2017/18. Recent climatology favours milder than average conditions but some of the background signals tentatively suggest a different outcome. Therefore the initial TWO view is that the chance of a colder winter, or at least one bringing the risk of snow at times, is higher than it has been for several years."
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Snow on the beach in Italy this am

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and 50cm at the Cosmiques refuge at 3600m on Mont Blanc (watch out for slab avalanches if you are climbing above that altitude)

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@davidof, "Snow on the beach in Italy this am "

Pull the other one, surely not.

If so where ??
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