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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Has any resort actually come out and said they'll extend times? I recall Mammoth last year saying they'd just stay open throughout I think
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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BobinCH wrote:
Conditions are AMAZING above 2000m. Best season in memory. We’ll be skiing into June there is soooo much snow


Looks great, I just hope that you took full account of the avi danger and didn't just go wild, or act like it was 'amazing', cos the sun was shining and it was a bluebird day.... I mean the shame of it, tut, tut Wink
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8611 wrote:
Has any resort actually come out and said they'll extend times? I recall Mammoth last year saying they'd just stay open throughout I think


Sportgastein just extended a week to 22nd April.
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I assume the main problem is there isn't a huge identifiable market there as most Europeans in general are unlikely to consider skiing in late April or beyond into May, regardless of what the conditions are like.
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Very interesting 12z ECM this evening.



High pressure once again building over Scandinavia. Drawing cold across Europe from the east. Temperatures 12C below average for the time of year.



GFS not buying into this at this point mind you, so will be interesting to see if this builds support tomorrow.
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Interesting tweet

https://twitter.com/drahbutler/status/971991203603337217?s=21
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nozawaonsen, i'm sure it is very interesting - if you can understand it rolling eyes

And isn't weather wonderful.
All weather sites state Freezing Level is at least 2500 here in La Plagne (with snow limit 2100).
Most weather sites predict rain for us.
But right now outside it is snowing. Proper snow. And quite heavily.
Long may it last.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Jonpim, I was similarly puzzled by that tweet.

And the snow outside my window at the moment is also contrary to the forecast.
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Snow briefly turned to rain, and then stopped about 20 minutes ago.
Misty and rather warm outside now.

And glad i'm not the only one not able to understand all this clever weather stuff.
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Saw this a few days ago. Kinda cool. At about ~1500m.

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I haven't got a scooby, especially with the ensembles. The plain english, layman terms explanations are just about the only thing I understand.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
How much damage is today's rain (Western French and Aosta) causing to the snow cover, especially in resorts with the base below 1500m?
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No rain in Champlouc, just a few cm of snow. Hoping for more snow tomorrow, rather than rain. Currently in the cloud, a bit of a pea souper out there tonight
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Started off light down in this part of the world and now very heavy dangerous wet snow (see avalanche thread if at all interested)

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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
06Z forecasting lashings of rain next weekend for the E Alps.

Luckily the main run looks like an outlier on the wigllies.

http://www.meteociel.fr/tendances/40887/saalbach.htm
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Cheapski wrote:
How much damage is today's rain (Western French and Aosta) causing to the snow cover, especially in resorts with the base below 1500m?


It’s not to bad. Horrendous conditions just after lunch when we arrived in Avoriaz but the rain stopped and high up it was quality. A bit slushy lower down. Currently enjoying a beer at Ardent
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Poor Weatherguys seem to be having a tough time just now - at least so round here (La Plagne).
But great when what we get is ather better than what is forecast.
With Freezing Level up to 2700m many sites forecast rain. Instead we go snow - admittedly rather wet below about 1600m, but definitely snow, and not rain or even sleet.
We only went out because meeting up with friends - glad we did: had rather jolly time.
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Temperatures should start falling over next couple of day.

Here‘s SLF‘s outlook.

“Observed weather on Sunday, 11.03.2018

Skies were heavily overcast, accompanied by only short intervals of brightness in the foehn-exposed regions. In southern regions, precipitation set in during Saturday night. The snowfall level south of the Main Alpine Ridge was 1500 m; north of the Main Alpine Ridge the snowfall level was 2000 m.

Fresh snow

Until Sunday afternoon, the following amounts of fresh snow were registered above approximately 2000 m:

central sector of the southern flank of the Alps: 15 to 30 cm;

Main Alpine Ridge from Great St. Bernard to the Bernina Pass: 5 to 15 cm;

in other regions of Switzerland, less; or else it remained dry.

...

Weather forecast through Monday, 12.03.2018

Weather conditions will be variable and skies heavily overcast, accompanied by only brief intervals of brightness. Snowfall is anticipated over widespread areas. The snowfall level in northern regions will be at 1400 to 1600 m to begin with, subsequently it will descend to 1200 to 1400 m, as it was also previously in southern regions.

Fresh snow

Between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon, the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated:

furthermost western part of Lower Valais, together with the region from Val Bregaglia to the Bernina Pass: 15 to 30 cm;

western sector of the northern flank of the Alps, central sector of the southern flank of the Alps: 10 to 20 cm;

remaining regions of Switzerland: 5 to 10 cm widespread, or less.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, -2 °C.

Wind

Winds will be westerly,
in western and northern regions blowing at strong to storm velocity;
on the southern flank of the Alps and in Grisons, blowing predominantly at moderate strength.

Outlook through Wednesday,
14.03.2018

On Tuesday in northern regions, skies will be variably cloudy, accompanied by snow showers; in southern regions, partly sunny. On Tuesday night in northern regions, snowfall over widespread areas is expected, subsequently in the daytime it will become predominantly sunny. On Wednesday, the westerly winds will slacken off significantly. On Tuesday and on Wednesday, the avalanche danger levels could increase somewhat in northern regions; in southern regions, the danger will incrementally diminish. Gliding avalanches continue to be possible.”
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Could there be another very cold spell next week?

GFS main run seems to think so as well.

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@snowheads68, this cropped up a few days ago as well. If anything ECM 12z goes even colder. 16C below average for the time of year!



And as you say GFS 12z op also building over Scandinavia.



Well worth keeping an eye on that.
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Both GFS and ECM 00z runs have cold pushing in from the east from next Sunday. They differ on where the heart of the cold will be (and that’s likely to switch from run to run). ECM not quite as cold as GFS but stretches the cold spell out longer.
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Wow, this is the Winter that keeps on giving!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Both GFS and ECM 00z runs have cold pushing in from the east from next Sunday. They differ on where the heart of the cold will be (and that’s likely to switch from run to run). ECM not quite as cold as GFS but stretches the cold spell out longer.


06Z GFS seems to have come on board with a long cold spell.
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FrediKanoute, you damn right.
Recently we keep having rain forecast, but get snow.
Its been snowing on and off all day here, and snowing hard right now. Settling on the trees.
And more forecast for tomorrow snowHead

Watching carefully how long that weekend cold spell is meant to last . . .
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Another cold blast coming in from Russia / Poland in a few days.
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Both GFS and ECM 12Z going for cold and snowy all next week.

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According to CFS we'll be skiing well into June!
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/973217006957842433
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It seems that each run of GFS moves colder and colder for next week (I'm watching Megeve / Chamonix). Are the other models generally agreeing or opposing?
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You know it makes sense.
Bring the cold. And also the precipitation. Bring it please. From Friday week. Thank you.
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I know Snow Forecast weather can vary as to what you get snowfall wise, but looking into next week they are reporting temps of -22 and wind chills of -37 degrees at the top lift in Andorra Shocked

Anyone know if this looks accurate or absolute pish?
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 Poster: A snowHead
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It's looking pretty cold for the time of year next week across Europe with another easterly spell incoming.
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I think the weather gods have forgotten it's spring, and it should be warming up - instead they are pretending it's still January Wink
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If Snowforecast are saying then it must be true Toofy Grin
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Currently looks like at least a week of below average temperatures to come from Sunday in the Alps and Pyrenees on both ECM and GFS.
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The forecast for Les arcs seems to be looking more and more unsettled from about the 25th. Is this too far out or given that most models are showing something is it likely to be an unsettled week?

Heres a link http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=46346&model=gfs&var=205&run=00&lid=ENS&bw=
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Worst thing about the forecasted cold snap is that, for this part of the world there's hardly any sunshine just cloud.

And today the snow taps are turned on again, but +1 in the valley so heavy wet snow again, now if we just had those cold temps of next week!

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@willirvine, 10 days out is too far to have much confidence, but if that signal continues or builds in coming days you could increase confidence.

@Weathercam, bit frustrating, but maybe sunnier next week?
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Looks like a pea souper today. Sad Im arriving in Courmayeur on Saturday till Tuesday.Looks like snow but I hope the vis wont be too bad.
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Would you stop this talk of sun we need precipitation people! Am I right in thinking there's relatively little snow predicted?
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8611 wrote:
Would you stop this talk of sun we need precipitation people! Am I right in thinking there's relatively little snow predicted?


No. This chart shows the latest (06z run) GFS prediction of accumulated snowfall over the next 9 days. Widely 50-150cm across the alps.



Wepowder is also showing a good amount of snowfall over the next 6 days (widely 50-100cm). It's also going to be a fair bit colder than average over the coming week (and maybe beyond), so snow to low levels.

Temps @ around 1500m near Chamonix:



I'd say the outlook is very snowy!
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