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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Well, the 1500 vertical i guess! Smile
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@staffsan, see my previous reply (edited).
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Thanks! Would that make for six days of good skiing without getting too much of the same? Never been there!
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@staffsan, I feel 6 days is quite a lot unless the ski routes are open and you can ski down to Sommerberg. I am taking the family for three days in Nov which I felt was about right. But to be honest it does depend on what you like. The terrain is quite varied and good steep sections. Fantastic park if that is your thing too. I believe there is more km of piste than somewhere like Kappl for example (although to contradict myself I did ski here for 6 days before....). One issue (which always worries me for shorter trips) is it's all well above the tree line so you could spend a few days in a the clouds. But then you are in the hands of the weather gods! Very Happy

For early season I think it's the best place. But haven't spent much time at Stubai which I understand is also good.

Suggest you open another thread, rather than use the weather thread here.
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First snow fell in Scotland today.
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First snow fell in Andorra last week when I was away. It melted by the time I got back on Wednesday, but quite a bit last night and this morning - far more than a dusting. Some peaks are now snow capped already. I have to say it was a bit unexpected.

I expect it to melt off again in the next couple of days.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Three days on the glacier is probably enough.
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SLF review and outlook.

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/lawinengefahr/index_EN

Weather review to Thursday, 14 September

On Thursday, a strikingly powerful cold front traversed the Alps, accompanied by strong to storm-velocity westerly winds.The snowfall level descended rapidly from 2800 m down to about 1700 m. Above 2000 m there was 5 to 15 cm of fresh fallen snow registered widespread. On Friday, it was quite sunny during the morning. Over the course of the day, cloud cover moved in from the west, but it remained dry.

Weather outlook through Sunday, 17 September

Weather conditions moved in the rhythm of the daily cycle, including bright intervals in the early part of the day, and showers in the latter part of the day. As a result of southwesterly air currents at high altitude, there will be barrier-cloud effects in southern and eastern regions. The snowfall level in northern regions will lie between 1600 and 1900 m, in southern regions at 1800 to 2200 m. Above approximately 2000 m, the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated by Sunday evening:

- eastern Bernese Oberland, central and eastern sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, Ticino, Grisons: 10 to 30 cm, most of the precipitation is expected between central Grisons and the Glarner Alps;

- remaining regions of Switzerland: up to 10 cm.

As a result of shower activity, immense disparities in the amounts of precipitation can be expected from place to place.

At high altitudes, a moderate-strength wind from southwesterly directions is anticipated, temporarily from northwesterly directions on Sunday.

Outlook

In northern regions above 1300 to 1600 m on Monday and Tuesday, heavy snowfall is expected. The avalanche danger is expected to increase significantly in those regions, particularly above approximately 2500 m.
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Plenty more snow to come this week in Tirol. 40-50cms for Stubai and Hintertux up top with the snow line dropping below 1300ms at times tomorrow. Clearing up later in the week. Hmmm...

Temps returning to closer to normal for the time of year in the last week of September.
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Does early falling snow contribute to lower ground temperatures even if it melts? Some of the energy in melting and evaporating comes from the ground perhaps?
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Early snow is the Weather Gods having a laugh.
Raising our hopes and ready to dash them.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Jonpim wrote:
Early snow is the Weather Gods having a laugh.
Raising our hopes and ready to dash them.


Amen to that
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Will it have any influence on snowpack? I recall last couple of seasons there being an issue with the underlying weak layer playing havoc for the rest of the season, what is the ideal base for stability further on?
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8611 wrote:
Will it have any influence on snowpack? I recall last couple of seasons there being an issue with the underlying weak layer playing havoc for the rest of the season, what is the ideal base for stability further on?


Zero influence on anything but the glaciers, it will all melt shortly.
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@8611, this snowfall is impressive to look at for the time of year, but as @kitenski says it will melt back relatively swiftly. So this is too early to form part of the coming season's snowpack. On the glaciers though it will start to build.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Good news for the racing in Solden tho, course has a decent covering already.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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In Austria some Hotels have been snowed in.

http://www.heute.at/oesterreich/kaernten/story/Schneechaos--Hotel-von-Au-enwelt-abgeschnitten-40276323
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kitenski wrote:
8611 wrote:
Will it have any influence on snowpack? I recall last couple of seasons there being an issue with the underlying weak layer playing havoc for the rest of the season, what is the ideal base for stability further on?


Zero influence on anything but the glaciers, it will all melt shortly.


Ah yes! That was quite predictable if I'd thought about it at all.

Do we want then successive layers of relatively strong snow fall to make a stable snow pack, as opposed to a layer which mostly melts before other stuff piles on the dregs?
If so would seem in warming winters we could be in for a weak snow pack rather a lot?
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@8611, regular snowfall from November with steady temperatures would provide good stability.

Meanwhile last week of September looks pretty calm with temps just below or around average. Early October starting to throw some options in the air, but a little early to say at this stage.
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Good sunny conditions on Hintertux glacier today.

22km of pistes open in fine condition, softening in the sun as the day drew on, but grippy rather than slushy.

No queues and bar the pistes where the teams were training, generally quiet.

Good to be back on the slopes again.

Pisteurs are busy prepping more slopes to open soon (Kaserer and Hoellscharte on the right of the piste map) as well as strengthening the link piste.

At present relatively calm Autumn conditions look like seeing the month out, possibly some snow showers tomorrow up top.
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A good piece by Matt Hugo setting out how the shifting Polar Votex (an often misused term) can shape winter conditions.

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8437-its-back---the-stratospheric-polar-vortex-returns

To over simplify...

Cold vortex=strong vortex=low pressure over Greenland=strong Atlantic=positive NAO

Can produce milder temperatures in the northern Alps, especially in the west, but can also produce some of the heaviest snowfall.

Warm vortex=disrupted vortex=high pressure over Greenland=blocking=negative NAO

Can produce very cold temperatures in Europe, jet forced south, drier in northern Alps, wetter in the southern Alps.

As the article goes on to suggest there are some limited indications at this stage that we may see a more disrupted vortex this winter. As mentioned a while back a -NAO can be good (cold), but can be bad (dry)... But then again it's too early to have any certainty about this.

So at this stage still unclear!


http://youtube.com/v/BN1WwnEDWAM
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Thanks for that. Negative NAO would probably be good news for the U.K. Winter. Very Happy
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Early October starting to throw some options in the air

Still looking possible for <2000m snow?

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disrupted vortex this winter - when will we know ?
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@Chris Brookes, the answer to that is in the article. Keep in mind that it is not necessarily a good thing for snow in the Alps.

@hd, certainly a possibility a this point, that first week of October looks quite unsettled on the 12z GFS.
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12z ECF also has a cold unsettled spell across the Alps around 03/04 October. Pretty much irrelevant for the coming ski season, but potentially of interest for those who can reach open glaciers... Be interesting to see how this develops tomorrow.
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Any informed views about factors affecting the likelihood of a precipitous winter in N America (specifically Canada &/or Alaska) e.g. El Nino, other. I am organising an epic but very expensive trip somewhere exotic but just want to try to make sure I book somewhere as weather sure as possible. (Skiable Powder snow )

Ref: http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=3104540#3104540
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@horgand, the honest answer is that long term forecasts should not at this stage have any impact on your decision making.
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Thanks Noza,
I guessed as much, but I kinda wanted to generate a feeling of predictability and control over our (holiday) destiny....alas it appears the only things I can control are our destination and maybe expectations.... Smile
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horgand wrote:
Any informed views about factors affecting the likelihood of a precipitous winter in N America (specifically Canada &/or Alaska) e.g. El Nino, other. I am organising an epic but very expensive trip somewhere exotic but just want to try to make sure I book somewhere as weather sure as possible. (Skiable Powder snow )

Ref: http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=3104540#3104540

For Canada(I am guessing South BC), it all depends on the Pacific jet, that is affected by various factors. A weak La Niña is helping you a little. Then we need to wait for Siberian Snow Cover, which seems to be good this year according to forecasts. This produces a -AO that isn't so great for Western North American Snow. A +AO produces a stronger Pacific jet that is often better at giving snowfall to BC. Alaska also benefits from a +AO, as the cold is closer to the Arctic during such an event.

That doesn't mention MJO, which is a big predictor in that part of the world and various other factors, like a potential Agung eruption, the Sun, PDO, etc.....
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BOM update on ENSO which has sheen a shift from likely ENSO neutral to possible La Niña.

"All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest further cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely. Five of the eight models suggest SSTs will cool to La Niña thresholds by December 2017, but only four maintain these values for long enough to be classified as a La Niña event.

While unusual, it is not unheard of to see La Niña develop this late in the year—the Bureau will keep a close watch for further, or sustained, cooling of the equatorial Pacific."
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Thanks Guys
That's great info and also very timely, as we're rapidly reaching our key decision time on booking our epic Canadian adventure,which may end up being 5ds in Whistler &5Cat skiing inland in Bc, so all good Smile, just not so cheap Sad( hence the required reassurance on the likelyhood of advantageous weather. May it please the weather and snow Gods Smile
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Last few runs have edged away from sending the remains of ex Hurricane Lee and Maria through the Alps next week with high pressure building instead.

Meanwhile Hintertux is openneing Kaserer tomorrow bringing the skiable area up to 31km.
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About 10-15cm of fresh snow heading for the eastern glaciers (Hintertux, Stubai) down to 2200m on Sunday.
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Interesting project which might be worth following. Forecasting with the aim of supporting operational snow and water reserve management.

http://prosnow.org/#

http://www.slf.ch/dienstleistungen/news/PROSNOW/
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If you've been up in the Austrian Alps you'll have noticed this, but it's been the coldest September in Austria for 10 years.

In the mountains the coldest since 2001!

The Villacher Alps were the snowiest since snow measurements began in 1925.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/kuehlster-september-seit-zehn-jahren
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Has this had any longer term effect on lowering the snowline, and increasing the snowpack above that altitude?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@nozawaonsen, interesting project
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@hd, the snowpack at altitude is deeper than normal for the time of year. That's not really relevant for the coming season though. Mild weather between now and the end of the year could quickly reverse that. Relevant if you want to ski on one of the glaciers right now though.
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Thanks noza I thought as much. Interesting analysis just posted on wepowder of the upcoming weather this week and possible effects of the snowpack at altitude on longer term conditions off piste.

http://wepowder.com/forum/topic/246833
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