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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Penzanceopinion wrote:
@KenHy, from recent experience in Cervinia, they would not open the lift as it was -20c, not sure about Austrian rules/regs
Cervinia wouldn't open the lifts because the temperature was -20? That seems very odd to me. I was in Hintertux at the start of December when temperatures on the glacier were getting close to -30 and everything operated as normal. A few days later a big storm came through and then everything shut down, but that was because of wind not low temperatures.
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@rob@rar, And most lifts in the Amadé area are covered and heated.
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waynos wrote:
Some major excitement on this weather forum for cold and snow in the uk.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89342-model-output-discussion-post-ssw-will-it-turn-cold/?page=178


Reading through that thread, they go crazy every run, mostly over things weeks away.

Saying that if it does come off, I'm screwed, doubt I'll be getting to the airport to go to the mountains early march, might as well just put my skis on here Wink
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@Little Martin, I’m on verge of getting nervous. My daughter is getting a coach from Nottingham to LHR on 28 February and we’re catching an afternoon flight to Salzburg.

Fingers crossed Laughing
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Interesting cold snap coming up, particularly for the UK. Some people are getting very excited on the Netweather forum.

This ensembles chart for the Gatwick area shows a good chance of snow anytime between 25th Feb and 7th March at the moment. I'm flying to the Alps on the 24th, which looks fine at the moment, but will keep a close eye on what happens for my scheduled return on the 3rd.

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@rob@rar, I know it seemed strange to me, but that is what we were told at the lift station when we tried to get up to the glacier. they definitely indicated it was the temperature not wind conditions...??
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We will be attempting a winter crossing of the Pennines on Friday 2nd (M62 haute route) - will I need winter tyres? Should I use my -15 degree wax on them?
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Penzanceopinion wrote:
@KenHy, from recent experience in Cervinia, they would not open the lift as it was -20c, not sure about Austrian rules/regs


Chamonix ensemble:

Manchester:

There's a lot more scatter on the Chamonix one, but you're looking at max temps of -10C at 1000m, ie valley level. And not a whole lot of snow, but that's harder to forecast at a week's range.

Based on previous experience of the GFS (it always overdoes extremes of all kinds at a week's range), I'd expect Manchester to actually be 2/3 degrees warmer than is shown, i.e. still jolly cold: ground level temps around freezing for the whole week.
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Austria properly cold at the start of next week. -20C at 1500m.



Would be puzzled if they stopped the lifts at that temperature simply because at altitude (glaciers) although uncommon nor is it that rare.

If you are in Alps next week you’ll need to think about layers and covering exposed skin (invest in a buff or similar), make sure you are fully zipped up and covered before (!) leaving the hut.

First signs of cold just starting to reach Dolomites, much colder today.
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06z and 12z GSF seem to have extended the extreme cold run by a couple of days (now Sun 25th to Sat 3rd). Basically the whole week.
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@snowheads68, 12z GFS op run pushes it all the way out to 07 March with good support from the control run.... FI mind you...
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So how cold is it looking to get? Some of the people in the forum that Waynos linked too, seem to be getting crazily excited that this could be some kind of once in a lifetime event for the UK - yet temps for the UK over the next 10 days don’t seem to get any lower than -2 (at least in Windsor, according to the BBC).

Am I missing something?
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rob@rar wrote:
Penzanceopinion wrote:
@KenHy, from recent experience in Cervinia, they would not open the lift as it was -20c, not sure about Austrian rules/regs
Cervinia wouldn't open the lifts because the temperature was -20? That seems very odd to me.


When I lived in Zermatt in the 80's, they'd open the Klein Matterhorn lift regardless of temps, wind was the determining factor back then, -35* was the coldest I skied in and my ex got frostbite of the face.......
Last time I went back a couple of years ago, they'd be closing it around -20 or so...
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I think what the weather enthusiasts are getting excited about is a long fetch easterly dragging bitterly cold air from Siberia all the way west into south east England.

The last one of those was 1991 quite a long time ago now and anyone under the age of about 35 will probably not remember it. If you are old enough you will Remember the ‘wrong type of snow’! That was the excuse British Rail used when powder snow blocked the air intakes on Their electric locomotives. snowHead
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I'm with you Handy Turnip: none of the simple weather sites i frequent are suggesting anything out of the ordinary next week.
But then, it was the same in The Day After Tomorrow . . .
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@Peter S, my parents lived in Sevenoaks then, I visited for Sunday lunch and got snowed in for a week. Friend had a Landrover with a winch and we skied in Knole Park.
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Cheers @Peter S, I’m old enough to remember 1991 if not the snow (I would have been 18, so probably living in my own teenage bubble!)

Jonpim, haha, true! I might keep my ski gear handy just in case!!
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KenX wrote:
When I lived in Zermatt in the 80's, they'd open the Klein Matterhorn lift regardless of temps, wind was the determining factor back then, -35* was the coldest I skied in and my ex got frostbite of the face.......
Last time I went back a couple of years ago, they'd be closing it around -20 or so...
Bloody snowflake generation wink
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Peter S wrote:
I think what the weather enthusiasts are getting excited about is a long fetch easterly dragging bitterly cold air from Siberia all the way west into south east England.

The last one of those was 1991 quite a long time ago now and anyone under the age of about 35 will probably not remember it. If you are old enough you will Remember the ‘wrong type of snow’! That was the excuse British Rail used when powder snow blocked the air intakes on Their electric locomotives. snowHead


What about Dec 2010? I seem to remember it being extremely cold all month in North East England. Driving to work a few mornings at -10 & below, the lowest being -14. I spent a lot of time clearing our drive of snow. They were even putting out warnings on local news telly people to not go out without coats! So that’s got to be cold!!!!!
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You have summed it all up in your first two sentences. North of Watford does not count.
2010 was quite localised mind you, but snow on the ground from the end of November all the way to the end of February. Hardly got a mention on the BEEB.
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If it’s snow you are after the southern end of Piemonte (like Limone) is worth heading to.

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@Handy Turnip, @Jonpim, probably the most sensible short video I've seen here on next week, jump to 2mins 30 secs to see the discussion on next week....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43135820
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@kitenski, brilliant! Best explanation I’ve heard. Also explains why temps on BBC weather forecast don’t look too bad, I guess they’re playing it relatively safe until they have a better idea.
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This is how GFS currently sees snowfall out to next Thursday lunchtime.



The cold temperatures look like lasting till the end of next week on both GFS and ECM, but given how different their solutions are there is still considerable uncertainty. GDS reintroduces cooler temperatures the following week as well.

Light snow falling in the Dolomites this morning after some glorious weather yesterday.
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Wow, look at these temperatures forecast for Monday/Tuesday: http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Val-Thorens/6day/bot
Maxes of -14C at resort level. Brrrrrrr!
Conditions will be similar across the Alps.
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Still snowing lightly but consistently in Dolomites. Posted lovely. Not enough to make much odds off piste at present, but fun enough. On days like these I think two hot chocolates at Saraghes is probably in order.
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I'm in Meribel Saturday-Saturday. I realize I am gonna freeze my bits off, but can anyone give an idea of the actual weather I can expect? Ta. It's lush at the mo!
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Charliegolf wrote:
I'm in Meribel Saturday-Saturday. I realize I am gonna freeze my bits off, but can anyone give an idea of the actual weather I can expect? Ta. It's lush at the mo!


If you’re sitting outside in the hotel/chalet hot-tub, there might be a bit of a nip in the air.
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i hope no dog is stupid enough to lick its nuts
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haha
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Any update on the Beast (not the one in @Mr.Egg’s post!) but the one from the east, and how it might affect the UK?

I can see temperatures in PDS drop by up to 10 degrees on Sunday/Monday, but there still doesn’t seem to be a huge shift in the UK.
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GFS has the extreme cold spell over by the 1st and "only" lasting around 3 days.

ECM has it persisting longer.



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@Handy Turnip, some thoughts from Liam Dutton

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/966653244805181440
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MetO 10 day outlook

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/videos/5738429895001
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Thanks guys, really interesting.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
If it’s snow you are after the southern end of Piemonte (like Limone) is worth heading to.



Currently residing in Ristolas and looks like we're staying for the weekend 😎

Check out Abries Ristoals France forecast.

Another proper classic Retour D'Est.

We've been skiing Ceillac today and have now moved on to Ristolas and almost Japanese here
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This is out to Sunday lunch. Really starts getting going on Saturday.

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@nozawaonsen, not just me being usually cynical but refuge patron having a good giggle at all the various models.

We Powder predicting 87cms for Saturday. He thinks more like 30cm at best.

We'll have to Wait and See. But at least we're in one of the better places 😎
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87cm seems surprisingly precise... sure it’s not 88cm?
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Handy Turnip, some thoughts from Liam Dutton

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/966653244805181440


Apparently not gonna be good snowman snow Sad
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