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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
can anyone point me in the direction please for the graphs for livignio? Thanks in advance
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harrymac wrote:
can anyone point me in the direction please for the graphs for livignio? Thanks in advance


This should be it:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=46.5&lon=10.0
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@nozawaonsen I'm just getting into this forecasting. It looks to me like the current weather pattern is due to -AO rather than -NAO. Is my interpretation correct?
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Could someone please also point me in the general direction of a reasonable forecast for Flims/Laax Switzerland (arriving 21st)... great advice as always from 99.9% of the forum Wink Toofy Grin
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@alansk, thank you!
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@CH1975, we certainly donít currently have a -NAO. Itís been relatively positive recently which would be in line with the strong jet which delivered the wild and mild weather at the western end of the Alps over New Year. On the other hand AO has been negative which I suspect would be consistent with the cold weather in parts of the US. That said IĎm certainly not an authority on the subject!
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@Fruity, try this

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/cmc_display.php?lat=46.8&lon=9.3
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Some very chilly temperatures starting to show up on 12z GFS around 20 January.
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@nozawaonsen, still seems to be looking snowy from 16th in northern alps or am I misreading something?
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@FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS, yes and ECM on side this evening too. Also looking cold round 20 January too.

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@nozawaonsen, thanks mídear as always
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First snow showers look like arriving on Sunday for the southern end of the French Alps.

This is how GFS 18z would see it by the end of Thursday.



Worth noting that areas that have been hit relatively hard recently look like being the focus again though with much lower snow line.


http://youtube.com/v/89mVQhJ_rrk

Snow in the northern Alps would continue into and through the weekend falling at low levels (though not currently forecast with the same intensity of either of the recent big falls). So potentially some snowy transfers and snowy Hahnenkamm.
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Hope the Hahnenkamm isn't too snowy and gets cancelled. Course is apparently in its best condition for years and years Very Happy
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I donít imagine that another metre of snow right now will be too welcome in resorts struggling to fully open ?
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robboj wrote:
Hope the Hahnenkamm isn't too snowy and gets cancelled. Course is apparently in its best condition for years and years Very Happy
... or the start is lowered again ... we demand a proper race!
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 Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen wrote:
First snow showers look like arriving on Sunday for the southern end of the French Alps.

This is how GFS 18z would see it by the end of Thursday.



.


is that showing decent snow for the Scottish Western highlands as well?? and maybe the pennines (Starts to try and plan a trip next week....)
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EC looks good for next Wednesday's event.
It's talking 50-75cm as the General snow accum for the Swiss & French Alps, with a followup event on the next Thursday, Friday and Saturday. That looks good for Austria, particularly on the Saturday, but that's a fair way out.
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@Jellybeans1000, anything in the models for livignio please? Thx
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My first post Smile . Hi there!

Heading out to Peisey-Vallandry next week - looks like a lot of snowfall (50-75cm over the course of a day) is due mid-week with some high winds. Is that type of forecast likely to be problematic for skiing? This is only my 3rd time so I'm still not that well acquainted with what a forecast translates to on the mountain.
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@adamtaylo, potentially high winds can close lifts, and large amounts of snow can close some pistes (due to them having to do avalanche safety work). Really hard to say how much snow is too much and the same with wind speeds. They do try and open and keep open all that they can safely do so. Surface drag lifts can often run in higher winds.

If it's windy and snowy, visibility can be bad so a good tip is to try and ski tree lined pistes.
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Ok cool, thanks @kitenski. Peisey-Vallandry has quite a few tree lined runs as I understand, thankfully.

Here's the forecast I was referencing: http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Peisey-Vallandry/6day/top .

75kmh winds Shocked
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@adamtaylo, I wouldn't worry about forecasts that far out Smile but also check it's much lower wind speed forecasted lower down the mountain....
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Good point @kitenski, I was only looking at the top. Keeping fingers and toes crossed!
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The one day, one day I say, a season I want sunshine... is looking pretty reliably like snow. (The Inferno).

I'll be slower than usual then...
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Could someone give me a link to charts for Val d'Isere and Tignes please? Arriving on 20th...
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http://greghilton.co.uk/snow_forecast/gfsruns.php?select=valdisere

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THis is how GFS wouldsee snowfall out to next Thursday night.



Some very cold charts cropping up in FI.
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@nozawaonsen,

I donít understand all these charts, but do understand asking you what it will be like in Saalbach next Friday 19th when I arrive is too far out, however does your quote Ďthis is how GFS would see snowfall out to next Thursday night Ď mean any new snow in Saalbach ?

Thanks
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@ribblevalleyblue, Its not that its too far out from an availability point of view but is from a reliability point of view. As a poster says on another website says about weather 'anything beyond T120 (120 hrs or 5 days) should be treated as JFF (just for fun)' thats not entirely accurate from a scientific point of view but from a self preservation from disappointment angle its probably wise?

This link is the current GFS 10 day meteogram for Saalbach which shows the data in a more recognisable format. Make sure you have the latest version from the '00 06 12 18' coloured numbers under the word run and most recent by date. What is currently showing is the beginning of todays 18z (6pm) output as it rolls out but it won't show the full 10 days of data until around 11pm tonight. The most recent complete run is todays 12z (noon) output so on that page click on the number 12 (highlighted in blue) and it will show you what the output of the data run at noon today was. Make sure the selected 'city' shows Saalbach.

So to answer your question, as GFS saw it at noon today, yes, there would be snow for a few days, from about mid-day Tuesday with Thursday afternoon and Friday seeing the least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=OP&var=93&bw=&geoid=2558
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@ribblevalleyblue, there should be fresh snow for Saalbach later next week. Heaviest snowfalls look like being further west, but still looks like snow across much of the northern Alps. This is GFS out till Friday lunchtime.



Snowfall amounts on the northern side of the Alps is now looking heavy enough to cause problems in exposed parts of the western Alps next week with some potentially very strong winds. Worth keeping an eye on because the combination of heavy snowfall and strong winds would significantly raise the avalanche risk and potentially lead to lift closures. Some very cold temperatures cropping up for the following week.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@ribblevalleyblue, there should be fresh snow for Saalbach later next week. Heaviest snowfalls look like being further west, but still looks like snow across much of the northern Alps. This is GFS out till Friday lunchtime.



Snowfall amounts on the northern side of the Alps is now looking heavy enough to cause problems in exposed parts of the western Alps next week with some potentially very strong winds. Worth keeping an eye on because the combination of heavy snowfall and strong winds would significantly raise the avalanche risk and potentially lead to lift closures. Some very cold temperatures cropping up for the following week.


Might make my imminent trip to Tignes interesting.

Looking at the UK side of things, is this suggesting something like 45 cm for areas like Nevis and Glencoe in the next 7 days?

Or am I reading this wrongly
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@nelly0168, you are reading it right!
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No let up on 00z by the looks of it??
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@FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS, do you mean 06Z? Yes it's looking very tasty for the north and west. Hope there are a few moments of calm amidst the maelstrom for those involved to enjoy whatever is delivered.
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Yes, sorry.

Iím taking a good book! Might get my tax return done too. wink
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well well well

I'm off for a long weekend skiing with the boys on the 19th
Could be epic
Think hiring a 4x4 octavia could end up being a brilliant call Very Happy
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First post here. Long time listener and always been a big fan of the show wink
Forecast looking increasingly positive for my once a season trip, this year to La Plagne next weekend.
Any idea what the charts have in store going out into fantasy island past next Sunday? Will the snow stop with the high pressure above Greenland and the Azores meeting up??
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Normally the forecast for snow later next week and over the weekend of 20th Jan, with freezing level at low altitude, would fill me with joy as I am planning to be in the mountains - at 1400m in St Martin de Belleville (so Tarentaise) until 21st Jan. However, I HAVE to be home in the UK by 21st Jan, and currently have a flight booked that day. Am concerned that the predicted weather and snowfall, especially the potential quantity, might cause chaos/close the road down the mountain, as well as flight disruptions at GVA. An even in the days before I am due to leave, the potential to ski may be scuppered again by high winds and avalanche risk.

Am I being a big wuss in bringing forward my return date? I know itís a bit too soon to be certain, but things are definitely looking stormy until Friday as far as I can see.
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Looks like the worm has turned for the West Coast of NA. Or, maybe the worm just rolled over in his sleep...Most PNW ski areas received about 8"-16" past 24 hrs. Mostly heavy, wet snow, and right around the 4,500' level, which is about base level for most ski resorts. Appears that the 7 day forecast is indicating a train of storms starting next week. They have been showing up on both the Euro and US weather longer range models with consistency the past few days. Still a week out, but the storms stacking up off the Pacific, are just waiting for instructions from Mother Nature to start moving in around Wednesday/Thursday. This includes Northern California and the Sierra's which did get brushed with some moisture the past few days, and snow at the higher elevation above 8,000'. CO and UT should see some weak storm activity mid next week, the potential for stronger storms rolling in later in the January 19-21 time frame. We shall see.
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@wintersoldier17, too early to say at this stage though it does look like there will be some cold temperatures around 20 January.
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