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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:
Intense summer storms have continued to wash away roads, dump hail and cause floods through parts of central Austria today.......


Could well be our turn tomorrow - but what I like about weather in the mountains in the summer is that you tend to have only one day of rain in a week and then things return to normal.

Temps overnight drop to almost single figs and then rise steadily to nigh on 30 around 17:00 which seems to be the hottest time of day with a stiff thermal breeze - hence if out cycling then we get out in the morning, though does depend on what distance you're planning on.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Bit unsettled over the next few days, high winds and at times rain though by the end of the week that looks like 20cm snow down to around 2200m at Hintertux, before warming up again.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well yesterday was indeed "intense" !

Thunderstorms pretty well all day from 05:00 through to 20:00 and very heavy rain at times!

Not fun at all if under canvas.

Weather clearing this morning as you can see, though up towards Lautaret / Galibier pretty grim still but forecast is for it to clear hopefully, as OH is running up to Galibier off road with Les Chiens and me on MTB.

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Weathercam, lovely picture.
Pretty grim here in southern England
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Weather did indeed clear and you could see fresh snow on the peaks and glaciers up from the Lautaret below La Meije.



And for some being at altitude yesterday was not such a good idea - see this thread
http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=132594
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Terrible weather in London today which is why the media has suddenly noticed that it hasn't been a perfect summer.

Ironically the rest of the Uk is enjoying a fine evening tonight rolling eyes
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
More stormy weather, lightning and hail pushing through Steirmark and Kärnten.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Meanwhile ENSO continues to look neutral.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. All climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to stay ENSO-neutral for the rest of 2017."
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Lots of rain here.

The Ruetzbach (the river that drains/runs down the valley from Stubaier Glacier) just hit its 100 year high water record:



With more rain due over the weekend and next week... Could get messy.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
SLF's Outlook up to yesterday, haven't seen an actual look back yet.

"As a consequence of the high/low, heavy precipitation will be observed from region to region, and temperatures are expected to drop significantly. In western and northern regions, skies are expected to be predominantly overcast on both days. In the Engadine, some final bright intervals will be evident on Thursday, then precipitation will set in, including in eastern and southern regions, which is expected to last until Friday. On Friday afternoon, northerly foehn wind will arise in southern regions and conditions will become dry. The snowfall level will descend swiftly from 3000 m down to approximately 2400 m on Thursday afternoon; then on Friday, down to approximately 2000 m. By Friday evening above approximately 2800 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow can be expected:

- Northern Alpine Ridge from the Diablerets to the Reuss as well as in the southern Valais Alps: 30 to 50 cm;

- In the eastern Bernese Oberland and in Goms, as much as 80 cm;

- Remaining regions of Switzerland: 10 to 30 cm.

At 2500 m, about half the above-cited amounts of fresh fallen snow are anticipated; at 2000 m, barely any snow will remain on the ground.
Winds will be blowing at light to moderate strength at 3000 m; at 4000 m, winds will be strong and shift from southerly to northerly.


Temperatures warming up again now.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Yesterday on a pass at 3003m in Aosta valey (Rhemes Notre Dame) was scared by a heavy snow. So that I thought I would not be able to find a hiking path ... snowed till circa 2600 m. .... few days before that it was 34 degrees in Aosta town and I was going from one to another gelato stand ....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@clarky999,
Quote:

Lots of rain here.
The Ruetzbach (the river that drains/runs down the valley from Stubaier Glacier) just hit its 100 year high water record:
With more rain due over the weekend and next week... Could get messy.


Kinda understandable!!!! Shock - if only this was in the winter (though that amount could be almost too much.... )

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So, about la nina. Does it affect europe and the alps as much as it does north america?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
staffsan wrote:
So, about la nina. Does it affect europe and the alps as much as it does north america?

Not very much. The teleconnections aren't very good for La Niña. Some authors including scientists at EC, suggest La Niña equals roughly a +NAO, but correlations are a little sketchy. The correlations are much better in the US, but even then it's strictly a guide only. A season will fluctuate and change, according to various factors beyond ENSO. I don't focus on ENSO that much personally, more important drivers IMO.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@staffsan, try the quote below from last year's thread (quoting from previous threads).

In short though there is no straightforward correlation in the US and even less in Europe.

You could look at things like QBO (easterly phase this winter which could mean -NAO, which tends towards a colder winter in Europe, but often drier in the northern Alps, wetter on the south side). Or look at the solar cycle. Or indeed arctic ice extent and Siberian snow cover in autumn. All these things may give a feel for the overall background conditions. Then again they may not as none of the correlations are strong enough nor the complexity of how they interact well enough understood to allow for confidence in any form of long range forecasts. That doesn't make all attempts at long range forecasting pointless, just that you need to be up front about how much confidence you should have in them.

nozawaonsen wrote:


What does that mean? Here's something from the 2013/14 thread...

nozawaonsen wrote:

Not a huge amount is the short answer, especially for Europe.

From 2012/13 thread.

"Here's a good article from offpistemag.com by Leigh Jones and Wendy Wagner on the impact or not of ENSO in the US.

Demystifying ENSO

"In the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, and the Intermountain North, an El Niño winter has a greater chance to be
drier and warmer than average, and vice versa for a La Niña winter. For California and the Southwest, El Niño winters have a greater chance to be wetter than average, and vice versa for La Niña. Furthermore, the stronger the El Niño or La Niña, the greater the chance of seeing an out- of-the-norm winter. But don’t kid yourself – it’s way more complicated than just that.

The dirty little secret that gets drowned out in the hype is that any one climate signal doesn’t necessarily guarantee that your snow season is going to be a boom or a bust. Some regions in the West experience La Niña more strongly than El Niño (the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia). For some regions, the opposite is true. Some regions won’t typically see impacts from El Niño or La Niña when the signal is weak, but only when it is moderate-to-strong (the Sierra Nevada). Some regions may experience large variability within a season, where the early or late season may be more heavily weighted (Colorado). And if you ski Utah’s Wasatch, the surprising truth is that there’s just no reliable correlation between ENSO and the “Greatest Snow on Earth.”


But as they say... it's more complicated than that..."


nozawaonsen wrote:
... There are many factors that play a part ENSO is just one and it's impacts are more widely felt away from Europe (PNW for example).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina/ENSO-impacts

2009/10 was indeed the last significant El Niño event, though in that case the winter turned out to be very cold in much of Europe, particularly the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2010/winter.html

This however was more to do with the strongly -NAO/AO rather than ENSO.


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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Some stunning weather in the Tirol and round Salzkammergut in the last few days broke last night with strong storms pushing across with heavy winds and rain. Sadly two people were killed when the storm hit a festival in upper Austria bringing down scaffolding.

In the mountains the snow level will fall below 3000m bringing about 10-15 cm to Hintertux.
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