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Next Season is going to be lot more Expensive!

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@manicpb, such as ??
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
stanton wrote:
@PaulC1984, did you get (financial) help from your folks? Your not old enough to understand what a mess the UK & indeed other European countries were in before they joint the single market. The founding members of the EEC (Benelux) created this alliance to bring prosperity to all. The EU has provided more for you in your life time to make it better even if you do not recognise it.


No. No financial help. Once I left college, I went straight to uni, did my Civil Engineering degree on day release, yes it took 5 years, but it meant I was at work and funding my own way. Bought my first house at 19, second at 23, again funded because I saved like mad and lived within my means.

Nowadays people seem to do too many gap years, take out student loans, party and live well out of their means and then complain that the country has failed them or Brexit is the cause.

Granted Uni fees are A LOT more expensive than they used to be and I empathise with people for this, but where possible work to pay your way rather than doing a gap year and then popping off to uni full time and spend most of it drinking
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
PaulC1984 wrote:
Nowadays people seem to do too many gap years, take out student loans, party and live well out of their means and then complain that the country has failed them or Brexit is the cause.


I can agree with the first part but Brexit has not happened yet & it will damage your country for some years.
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stanton wrote:
PaulC1984 wrote:
Nowadays people seem to do too many gap years, take out student loans, party and live well out of their means and then complain that the country has failed them or Brexit is the cause.


I can agree with the first part but Brexit has not happened yet & it will damage your country for some years.


We agree on something for once wink

Brexit as with any uncertainty will of course effect the economy - that is natural, investors are like sheep.

How it will or wont effect the country going forward no one knows, so it is pretty pointless guessing. I adapt to whats in front of me, and budget accordingly - regardless to ones financial circumstances budgeting and staying within ones means is the best way to lessen the impact of any financial shifts.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
PaulC1984 wrote:

How it will or wont effect the country going forward no one knows, so it is pretty pointless guessing. I adapt to whats in front of me, and budget accordingly - regardless to ones financial circumstances budgeting and staying within ones means is the best way to lessen the impact of any financial shifts.

I would argue, that what is currently unfolding, is making it much clearer what the implications of Brexit are likely to be. IMO. There is what will happen with a deal and what will happen if we crash out. I would agree that at this stage, it is hard to know the likelihood of crashing out. What isn't in doubt, is the damage that uncertainty is currently causing and could cause if it goes on much longer.
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@Old Fartbag, Yes, yes YES! you are so right.

It's not the 'in' or the 'out', but the uncertainty.

And as for @PaulC1984,

Quote:
regardless to ones financial circumstances budgeting and staying within ones means is the best way to lessen the impact of any financial shifts.


The nail fimly hit on the head. If only it was taught in schools...
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[quote="Old Fartbag"]
PaulC1984 wrote:

What isn't in doubt, is the damage that uncertainty is currently causing and could cause if it goes on much longer.


This I can agree with Happy - and both the EU and UK need to sort themselves out in this respect - alas negotiations are like this of course, and it was never going to be easy, anyone who thought so was deluded.
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Arctic Roll wrote:
@Old Fartbag, Yes, yes YES! you are so right.

It's not the 'in' or the 'out', but the uncertainty.

And as for @PaulC1984,

Quote:
regardless to ones financial circumstances budgeting and staying within ones means is the best way to lessen the impact of any financial shifts.


The nail fimly hit on the head. If only it was taught in schools...


I still think they should remove R.E. or other less relevant subjects from schools and start teaching business management from day 1. simple things like how to set up a company, boarderline legal tax avoidance, etc etc

actually perhaps that's why they don't teach it Happy Happy
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@PaulC1984,
Quote:
....I still think they should remove R.E. or other less relevant subjects from schools and start teaching business management from day 1. simple things like how to set up a company, boarderline legal tax avoidance, etc etc ...


whatabout...... spelling? Toofy Grin
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@skimastaaah, Nah, thats what the phone spell check is for, only the spell check keeps failing me Happy
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@PaulC1984, Yeah......... 21st Century education is missing the plot. Kids getting schooled by non-qualified teachers who don't know or use half the IT kit that they themselves can do. English lessons based on phonics, maths lessons using Numicon (number bonding approach), science lessons taken from Brainiac Science Abuse off the telly. Interactive Virtual Learning Environments where kids can open up and play Minecraft games in front of TA's that don't give a t*ss.

The 5% smart kids can learn about Tax Avoidance, the 95% rest can practice online Benefit claims. Sad
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Indeed

My 5yo can home upset the other day as all the kids have now been given Ipads, all in school work and homework is completed on them, automatically marked. GREAT...... or not - My 5yo has never used a computer - but has a reading, writing and arithmetic age that has now put him into the year above. All the other kids go into schools with their Ipads, my wee man rocks up with his Abacus - needless to say he felt rather out of place. Great that they have moved him up a year, not so great that they all use computers to do their work.

Im all for advancing with the times, but id like to see the basics done well first!
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We have had apple schools in Holland for some years


http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/13/08/21/first-7-steve-jobsschools-open-in-netherlands-tout-education-through-ipad
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@stanton, So have we, but since the little one is only 5, its the first time I have come across it Happy

It doesn't make it right though
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stanton wrote:
We have had apple schools in Holland for some years


http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/13/08/21/first-7-steve-jobsschools-open-in-netherlands-tout-education-through-ipad


Steve Jobs' subliminal future forming for Apple.

Sod Apple schools, we have them in the UK too. I prefer the Danish influence .............. Lego Education. Shocked

And back on track a tad ........................ May is firmly hinting at a Hard Brexit to her European counterparts. Just watch the UK Libor rates go up, BoE notches interest rates up to 1%, and Sterling gets back to 1.23/1.28 by Xmas.
Put that in your Raspberry/Apple Pie Stanton/Monsieur Barnier!! NehNeh
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@skimastaaah,

Its all just hiding the deep problems
of Brexit.

Folks in the UK with mortgages high personal debts will suffer
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@stanton, So the pound goes down and its the fault of Brexit, it goes up its the fault of Brexit!

Rising interest rates will help the savers who have suffered badly over the last 10 years and will help dampen house price rises. The world has been awash with cheap credit from whoch it needs to wean itself off, yes it will be a painful lesson for some.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
stanton wrote:
@skimastaaah,

Its all just hiding the deep problems
of Brexit.

Folks in the UK with mortgages high personal debts will suffer


Yes, I just fixed my mortgage for 5 years, 1.59% so a bit more than I was paying, but peace of mind.
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The swap rate yield curve for UK and US is lower at 15-30 years than the actual gilt or US treasury yield curve. The reason for this is often quoted as a liquidity issue (eg. there may be a shortage of banks willing to offer a swap for fixed to Libor rates at 30 year duration or vice-versa, thereby pushing up the cost and reducing the implied yield).

www.six-swiss-exchange.com/services/yield_curves_en.html (change the country to UK, and click a tick on Interest rate swaps)

It might also have something to do with people with mortgages looking to lock into the current rate. (banks for example)

Something else which I find peculiar in the UK is that the 30 year gilt splits offer higher yields than conventionals of similar modified duration. (i.e. duration adjusted for the income received in conventionals compared to none from splits)

This is again probably due to a shortage in supply of conventionals with 30 year modified duration, compared to splits which will generally have a longer average total duration than conventionals (as they pay no income).

What this means if you are not trying to match a liability stream with cash flows, is that you should prefer splits to conventionals at the long end of the curve. Even if you were trying to match a liability stream, you could use a series of splits to return a higher yield. So for me, it does not make perfect sense. There may be a taxation issue regarding tax on income rather than capital gains. Check your current and future tax position in 30 years before making any decision. (no capital gains tax on most gilts: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/gilt-edged-securities-exempt-from-capital-gains-tax so it is not that which causes the yield differences, perhaps it is QE. "Strips are only really suitable for those investors who are both capital-rich and low-rate tax payers, and who do not need any ongoing income payments": http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=gilt-strip Strips are taxed as if all the capital gain is income, spread over the term of the gilt. Ugh, however it is not sufficient to explain all of the yield difference )


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Thu 26-10-17 20:37; edited 4 times in total
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One thing that is the 'fault' of Brexit is the £82bn extra that we've had to pay so far in increased cost of imports, when the trade-weighted £ dropped 15% after the Leave vote (note trade-weighted i.e. weighted against the currencies of our main trading partners, as opposed to tourist exchange rates). And exports didn't explode as promised, despite being cheaper. This is an ONS statistic. So that's £3000 per household, roughly, that we'll never get back. Of course, a lot of this is cost to industry and may be covered by value-added re-export of finished goods, but most of it is lost.

Now, this may well be more than balanced by future benefits - compare £82bn to the UK's exports of £288bn (2015) and it is plausible that at some point in the next 5 years, we'll get that sort of money 'back'. But I think it is a fair point that by now, we should be getting a much clearer picture from people like DExEU and the Treasury of the next 3-4 years, however heavily qualified and with however many variations. If there's a price to pay before some break-even point, I think that many people would rather know up-front. Then we can start doing the sensible thing and plan. The time is past for vague generalisations about how much better things will be.
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The UK has more personal debt than nearly all EU countries.

Foe example.

Credit cards are rarely accepted in Holland so everyone live within their means paying by PIN (direct from bank account).

Most Dutch who have Credit Cards apply for the pre paid Visa or Mastrrcard.

Debtand uts problems is taught in schools from a very young age. Everyone is taught abiut credit perils
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One year ago the £/Euro exchange rate was 1.122 today it is 1.125. So that is less expensive than 1 year ago. Does this thread have a start and end date to its forecast?

On 6/7/16 (the start of this thread) the exchange rate was 1.163. Given most people in the UK ski in Europe, I am unclear why the start of this thread quotes the $ exchange rate since that is a commodities and oil related dollar strengthening rather than a Brexit issue.

Whatever the forecast period is applicable, it is clear that next season 2017/2018 is not likely to be much more expensive in Europe than 2016/2017 season.

rolling eyes
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stanton wrote:
The UK has more personal debt than nearly all EU countries.

Foe example.

Credit cards are rarely accepted in Holland so everyone live within their means paying by PIN (direct from bank account).

Most Dutch who have Credit Cards apply for the pre paid Visa or Mastrrcard.

Debtand uts problems is taught in schools from a very young age. Everyone is taught abiut credit perils


If Holland is such a paragon of debt virtue, why is the Household debt to GDP ratio 108% in Holland and only 88% in the UK?

At least have the creativity to describe more than just one metric that suits your warped viewpoint.

I dont like using negative terms, but you come across as - at best - uninformed, and - at worst - deliberately lying.

p.s. these numbers are not that tricky to come by - heres an example https://tradingeconomics.com/netherlands/households-debt-to-gdp

Oh, and "credit cards are rarely accepted in holland" - what planet are you on man, credit cards are just chip and pin cards same as debit cards !!!!
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Bigtipper wrote:
Whatever the forecast period is applicable, it is clear that next season 2017/2018 is not likely to be much more expensive in Europe than 2016/2017 season.


Actually, @Stanton may have a point. I've recently spent best part of a grand on new boots, a helmet and goggles that I didn't last year, which I 'spose makes it more expensive for me Toofy Grin Toofy Grin
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@Bigtipper, taking this seriously, with facts, knowledge and insight, isn't the response that troll-face wanted or expected.

Please don't expect reasoned or informed debate with our cloggie friend. #Just so you don't waste your time.
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What will be the effect (if any), of the ECB halving their QE programme....weaker euro?
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nelly0168 wrote:
stanton wrote:
The UK has more personal debt than nearly all EU countries.

Foe example.

Credit cards are rarely accepted in Holland so everyone live within their means paying by PIN (direct from bank account).

Most Dutch who have Credit Cards apply for the pre paid Visa or Mastrrcard.

Debtand uts problems is taught in schools from a very young age. Everyone is taught abiut credit perils


If Holland is such a paragon of debt virtue, why is the Household debt to GDP ratio 108% in Holland and only 88% in the UK?

At least have the creativity to describe more than just one metric that suits your warped viewpoint.

I dont like using negative terms, but you come across as - at best - uninformed, and - at worst - deliberately lying.

p.s. these numbers are not that tricky to come by - heres an example https://tradingeconomics.com/netherlands/households-debt-to-gdp

Oh, and "credit cards are rarely accepted in holland" - what planet are you on man, credit cards are just chip and pin cards same as debit cards !!!!



You would not understand ..Clearly its beyond you.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nelly0168, One-Nil to you. You always know when you score a goal in this battle as the opposition tells you that you don't understand Very Happy Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@chocksaway, there is an awful lot that Stantroll does it understand including most of the links he posts.

There are times I think he should be removed to save him from further punishment.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

There are times I think he should be removed to save us from further punishment.


FIFY
Very Happy
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@chocksaway

It's too easy, there must be a catch.

I envisage him sitting giggling to himself in a darkened room.....
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nelly0168 wrote:
I envisage him sitting giggling to himself in a darkened padded room.....



FIFY. Toofy Grin
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
At current exchange rates Switzerland will be cheaper this year than last. Suggest that with Brexit, we wait and see what happens till after we leave. Worth noting though that one of the biggest food items in the UK basket, bannanas, is not EU sourced, pretty obviously. The EU imposes a 10.9% tarrif on their import to the UK. This comment I know indicates my position on the subject, but for those with some sympathy for the mass youth unemployment in Greece, Spain, Italy , caused in large part by having the Euro as a currency, the collapse of the EU would be welcome. Also worth noting that no one ever voted to be in the EU in the first place, just the EEC, which was a much different, less beauracratic, entity.
Also worth noting that any entrepreneurs such as James Dyson, or Bamford (JCB) are in favour of brexit, as it will offer alot more opportunity. Only employees who have made it to CEO, or similar but still employees, are cautioning against brexit. People are (as my past companies always reitterated) naturally afraid of change. We have voted for it, we must do it, and we must have a walk away position of no deal.
To not have this if you have any negotiation experience at all, (40 years worth for me) is simply naive to say the least.
Have to say, I am looking forward to my skiing, which first took place before we entered the EEC. Those too young to remember will be happy to know that this was no problem at all. People also took jobs across Europe, and went to European universities, all without the EU.
Please all have a little faith in our abilities.
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@twoodwar, all good points I'm sure, but you can find the Brexit thread in the Apres Zone section of the forum, here: http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=126029
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Fair enough Mike, but I looked at the opening which was squarely blaming expensive skiing on Brexit. I wont be posting on it anymore! Will only look at Skiing threads, purely about skiing. snowHead
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I'm not one to post links normally but I'll just leave this here for our Stanton

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41774817
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@PaulC1984, He's already posted that somewhere. Not clear why the BBC is excited. We have made guarantees and provided loans. We are liable / will be paid back just the same whether we are in or out of the EU. So the news is that there is no news, so the cost of skiing next season is unaffected.
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We cannot have this on the second page...
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Is next season about to get 2% cheaper? or is Dopey still on for parity?
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This is now all down to Brexit negotiations and the Bank of England’s November policy event.

Brexit Negotiations go Sour means Parity

BoE will keep the Pound artificially high with an Interest rate rate hike.

You can buy Ski Vacations on Credit with additional interest in the pipeline from the BoE

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-boe-finance/if-rates-rise-hangover-looms-for-some-britons-after-10-year-credit-binge-idUSKBN1D15K6

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/sep/19/public-inquiry-debt-mps-households
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