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Next Season is going to be lot more Expensive!

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@stanton, Quite , giving Brussels, Nice and Berlin a miss.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Larsen beieves the support provided by the Bank of England is likely to fade as inflation is expected to be constrained at 3.0% by the strengthening Pound which should in turn mean the Bank of England retreats from further interest rate rises.

Indeed, many are suggesting that the Bank is only raising rates to boost the Pound which will in turn push down the cost of imports and cap rising inflation.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/7650-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-exagerated-optimism
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@stanton, Good post/news/ hope you are right for once.
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I attended a Bank of England briefing earlier in the week. Firstly, don't believe what you read in the media. Having sat in on one, it's a surprise how much of the subsequent reporting/commentary/analysis I've seen is inaccurate in terms of representing the actual BoE assumptions and strategy. Especially how many articles tie together a headline like 'BoE Latest ' and then talks about stuff that is actually just an analysis of the market by the journalist or someone in the City they've taken for a free lunch.

The key takeaway is that this is the first time in a long while that more than two of the MPC members are seriously discussing a rate rise. That's enough to make it a real possibility. If it does, it will be a rise of 0.25% and then a wait to see how this affects the market. The Bank will not increase rates more than 0.25% at a time. Given similar market conditions in the past, you might have expected interest rates to be around 3%-4% but obviously there are factors acting against this.

Another nugget is that, all other things being equal, the Bank would expect wage rises to be in the range of 2.5%-4% given market conditions (e.g. inflation at close to 3% and rising). But they're nowhere near this. Directors in the room I was in all seemed to agree that this isn't something they'll be passing on to their staff. (Something to bear in mind if your Annual Review is soon.).

One of the BoE forecast assumptions is that it will not be a Hard Brexit - there will be a gentle Transition. Ummmm ... so if we assume that the Bank and the Government are talking to each other, then the implication is interesting (for me it's that "No deal is better than a bad deal." is dead).

In relation to the OP - The BoE uses a composite exchange rate measure to represent key trading currencies, and this is down about 15% compared to the day before the Brexit Vote. It's down about 20% compared to mid-2015.

Exports are up about 3.5% against a year ago. Given the devaluation of the GBP this is worrying because there's no sign that a cheaper £ has done much to increase exports, contrary to what many expected. If the trade-weighted £ is down around -15% then +3.5% exports isn't good: for example, you'd probably think it should be around +8-12% and rising, but no.

The really inexplicable trend is how poor UK productivity remains. Before the 2008 crash productivity was rising at around 3-4%. It dropped to -4% after the crash but did recover to about 1.5% then dropped back. It's currently a pretty flat 0.3% This is against a backdrop of a very high 'labour participation rate' (i.e. most people who would be considered as candidates to work are in a job - It's hard to see this getting much higher). Doing some research, in April 2017 the UK worker productivity was an average -16.6% less than that of workers in the other G7 countries; the UK suffered twice the productivity downturn of other G7 countries following the 2008 crash; and for 2015 UK productivity was lower in comparison to the following countries as shown
-10.5% Italy
-22.2% USA
-22.7% France
-26.7% Germany
none of which is encouraging for a whole variety of reasons.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Thu 28-09-17 9:25; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Interesting. I think the only solution for "media" is to find disinterested outlets, which is less easy to do than to say.

UK productivity thing has been an issue for a long time, I believe - I don't think it was particularly affected by last year's events yet.

Pro-leave people will be surprised by the export data, I suppose.
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philwig wrote:
Interesting. I think the only solution for "media" is to find disinterested outlets, which is less easy to do than to say.

UK productivity thing has been an issue for a long time, I believe - I don't think it was particularly affected by last year's events yet.

Pro-leave people will be surprised by the export data, I suppose.


Based on the experience of the company I used to work for, Which has landed a very lucrative export (non EU) deal, I am very surprised. The UK has not been brilliant in collecting reliable export data in the past. One would hope that that had improved - but I do now wonder.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
LaForet wrote:
, in April 2017 the UK worker productivity was an average -16.6% less than that of workers in the other G7 countries; .


Perhaps because we mess around more wasting time on the internet Smile
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quote:
...in April 2017 the UK worker productivity was an average -16.6% less than that of workers in the other G7 countries;


We're all doomed.... doomed.....doomed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Im still predicting a low Pound by the Ski Season


http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/19173/gbp-pound-sterling-2017-2018-forecast-political-risk-fall.html
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
LaForet wrote:
I attended a Bank of England briefing earlier in the week. Firstly, don't believe what you read in the media. Having sat in on one, it's a surprise how much of the subsequent reporting/commentary/analysis I've seen is inaccurate in terms of representing the actual BoE assumptions and strategy. Especially how many articles tie together a headline like 'BoE Latest ' and then talks about stuff that is actually just an analysis of the market by the journalist or someone in the City they've taken for a free lunch.

The key takeaway is that this is the first time in a long while that more than two of the MPC members are seriously discussing a rate rise. That's enough to make it a real possibility. If it does, it will be a rise of 0.25% and then a wait to see how this affects the market. The Bank will not increase rates more than 0.25% at a time. Given similar market conditions in the past, you might have expected interest rates to be around 3%-4% but obviously there are factors acting against this.

Another nugget is that, all other things being equal, the Bank would expect wage rises to be in the range of 2.5%-4% given market conditions (e.g. inflation at close to 3% and rising). But they're nowhere near this. Directors in the room I was in all seemed to agree that this isn't something they'll be passing on to their staff. (Something to bear in mind if your Annual Review is soon.).

One of the BoE forecast assumptions is that it will not be a Hard Brexit - there will be a gentle Transition. Ummmm ... so if we assume that the Bank and the Government are talking to each other, then the implication is interesting (for me it's that "No deal is better than a bad deal." is dead).

In relation to the OP - The BoE uses a composite exchange rate measure to represent key trading currencies, and this is down about 15% compared to the day before the Brexit Vote. It's down about 20% compared to mid-2015.

Exports are up about 3.5% against a year ago. Given the devaluation of the GBP this is worrying because there's no sign that a cheaper £ has done much to increase exports, contrary to what many expected. If the trade-weighted £ is down around -15% then +3.5% exports isn't good: for example, you'd probably think it should be around +8-12% and rising, but no.

The really inexplicable trend is how poor UK productivity remains. Before the 2008 crash productivity was rising at around 3-4%. It dropped to -4% after the crash but did recover to about 1.5% then dropped back. It's currently a pretty flat 0.3% This is against a backdrop of a very high 'labour participation rate' (i.e. most people who would be considered as candidates to work are in a job - It's hard to see this getting much higher). Doing some research, in April 2017 the UK worker productivity was an average -16.6% less than that of workers in the other G7 countries; the UK suffered twice the productivity downturn of other G7 countries following the 2008 crash; and for 2015 UK productivity was lower in comparison to the following countries as shown
-10.5% Italy
-22.2% USA
-22.7% France
-26.7% Germany
none of which is encouraging for a whole variety of reasons.

Very interesting analysis thanks for posting.
There is an argument that poor productivity is partly due to inefficient companies surviving because they can borrow endless free money.
A short sharp interest rate rise would force them to raise their game or put them out of business, with the slack taken up by the high producers. Possibly.

GBP tumbling today thanks to new poor growth data and in spite of Carney trying to suggest that interest rates will go up soon.
I wonder if the currency traders are calling his bluff.
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stanton wrote:
Im still predicting a low Pound by the Ski Season


http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/19173/gbp-pound-sterling-2017-2018-forecast-political-risk-fall.html


A classic economist - the falling pound is bad for the UK and the rising Euro is bad for Europe!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

GBP tumbling today thanks to new poor growth data and in spite of Carney trying to suggest that interest rates will go up soon.

Tumbling - are you the Expresses headline writer? Its a 0.6% change (at 1600). Just an average day on the currency markets.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:

A short sharp interest rate rise would force them to raise their game or put them out of business


Hmmm, what is a short sharp rise? 3% for a year? 5% for 4 years?

Or perhaps the economists at the BoE put a touch more thought into things.....................
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@LaForet, I agree with hd - interesting and informative - and plays to the narrative I've been reading.

Apparently our productivity is at a 200 year low (if I heard right).
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Nobody understands productivity

That's what gives Economics a bad name.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
chocksaway wrote:
Tumbling - are you the Expresses headline writer? Its a 0.6% change (at 1600). Just an average day on the currency markets.

Nothing wrong with a bit of hyperbole every now and again wink
The point is that there has been a marked dip in the exchange rate when you would expect it to rise given more bleatings today from Carney about an imminent interest rate increase. Which makes you wonder if the currency traders think he is bluffing, and hence have expressed more concern in today's poor growth figures.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/travel/travel-news/648688/Brexit-news-hotel-prices-travel-cheap-flights-Europe
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
stanton wrote:
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/travel/travel-news/648688/Brexit-news-hotel-prices-travel-cheap-flights-Europe


Well if The Daily Star says holidays are up 74%, I might as well just get under the duvet and never leave my leafy corner of Edinburgh ever again.

or...................its clickbait drivel Very Happy
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Hotel prices up 74% what a load of bull
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Makes laugh that 'article'

Headline stares prices up 74% but then says up 50% but then further on says that whilst hotel costs in some places are up, flights are 50% cheaper.....

Yep ok.
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Breaking News

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/19251/gbp-eur-exchange-rate-news-updates-and-future-forecast.html

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/7717-sudden-drop-in-value-of-sterling
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I don't really follow currency that much, but is a drop from 1.32 against the dollar to 1.31 really considered a 'sudden drop' or 'plummeting'?
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@stanton, BREAKING NEWS Yet more pointless, non descript links posts by Stanton to revive hos thread

The first link says nothing

The second link says they have revised up their estimate on the pound. Is this your admition parity isn't coming

Analysts at the high-street lender forecast the Pound-to-Euro exchange rate at 1.12 by end-2017, up from 1.0 previously.

1.11 is seen by the end of the first-quarter 2018, 1.09 by mid-2018 and 1.05 by year-end 2018
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The British Pound is at risk of cracking below a key support level and falling back towards 2017 lows as selling pressures on the UK currency ramp up once more.

Technicals are of heightened importance in the near-term with the Pound-to-Euro exchange rate approaching a key support level which we identify as being at 1.1239. The exchange rate has fallen from a multi-week best at 1.1432 in late September to the 1.1261 we are seeing today.
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SnoodlesMcFlude wrote:
I don't really follow currency that much, but is a drop from 1.32 against the dollar to 1.31 really considered a 'sudden drop' or 'plummeting'?


No

Anything below a 0.75% swing is typical in a week, 0.5% per day is totally normal.
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@PaulC1984, Im still going for Parity & Lower in the New Year
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
hd wrote:
chocksaway wrote:
Tumbling - are you the Expresses headline writer? Its a 0.6% change (at 1600). Just an average day on the currency markets.

Nothing wrong with a bit of hyperbole every now and again wink


And stanton certainly spouts some hyperbolics..... Toofy Grin
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
The Pound is up against the US$ over the last 12 months so if heading west skiing could be cheaper.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
stanton wrote:
@PaulC1984, Im still going for Parity & Lower in the New Year


Well you have been nothing but correct since this thread started........ Looks like I had better get some Euros changed quick!!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
stanton wrote:
@PaulC1984, Im still going for Parity & Lower in the New Year


Pretty similar to what you posted before.

stanton (in July 2016) wrote:
Sterling parity with Euro & US Dollar £1 = €1/$1 by this coming Ski Season.


Give up now, you're only making yourself look more foolish (which I wasn't sure was possible)
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Poster: A snowHead
@BoardieK,

Cheaper , yeah right Shocked Shocked

Aspen
7 Day Lift Pass
$1043
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I actually meant a return visit but I see where you are coming from.

Personally, I'm heading to Switzerland with my £288, 25 resort season pass, all bought and paid for. Bargain!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@BoardieK, that must have been more expensive than last year though - about 20% more expensive?.... No?
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It's a new pass, they are having to be extremely competitive to lure Britons over.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@BoardieK, So next season won't me a lot more expensive for you then.....

Nope, me neither Toofy Grin
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Amazing! Very Happy
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
BoardieK wrote:
I actually meant a return visit but I see where you are coming from.

Personally, I'm heading to Switzerland with my £288, 25 resort season pass, all bought and paid for. Bargain!


Gosh, that is astonishing value. I'm committed for next season, now - hope a similar offer is made next year. Quite a while since I have skied in Switzerland.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Except that I have just remembered I get a free lift pass where I am going Very Happy
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Booked the BB earlier - reckon it was about the same price as last year as were the flights.
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@martinm, £39 more expensive - include increase in lift pass due to exchange rate, add in increase cost in food and booze on the mountain / evening, about another £40, so an extra £100 this year all in isn't going to destroy anyone!

To be honest, that the kind of increase you would see normally year on year anyway, even when we were strong against the euro!
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