Poster: A snowHead
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As much as I want to see rates rise, I don't expect them to rise before the Brexit negotiations are finished and the UK has left the EU. If they do go up before, the exporters that everyone is pinning the nation's future on will cry that they are not competitive unless the pound is worth less than magic beans.
The government will then get 'ripped a new one' by the public if everyone's mortgage goes up because of exchange rate fuelled inflation. The Remain camp will say "we told you so" (which they did), the BoE will say "we told you so" (which they did) and the Leave voting public will say "why didn't anyone tell us this would happen?".
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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stanton wrote: |
Only because of intervention by The Bank of England |
Actually, the rise is because the BofE has STOPPED intervening by constantly holding the interest rates down.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I wish the media wouldn't use terms like 'collapse' and 'soar' to describe relatively short-term changes in rates. It misrepresents the situation and doesn't help in analysing long-term trends. Today it 'soared' +1.4% to 1.30 CHF - putting it almost exactly where it was 12 months ago, which was down from 1.50 CHF 24 months ago. In the last 18 months it's moved between 1.19 and 1.45 CHF so what does it all mean? I wouldn't presume to predict.
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Cyclical fluctuation of pound.
Quote: |
“We were wrong. Contrary to our expectations, GBP has been exclusively driven by cyclical forces in 2017,” says David Bloom, Strategist with HSBC Bank plc based in London. “Combined with a more hawkish BoE, we revise our year-end 2017 forecast.”
What appears to have caught Bloom and his team surprise is Sterling's unwillingness to be swayed by Brexit fears. |
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Yeah right - just wait for the "cyclical fluctuation" next time HM Gov have to cough some bad Brexit related news.
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@Dave of the Marmottes, I am impressed you have reason to doubt the HSBC. Which bank are you advising?
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Ski pass this season CHF666 - last year CHF950
CHF vs GBP - last Christmas about 1.28, currently about 1.29
Looks ok to me.
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Inflation is rising fast as direct result of Brexit Referendum.
Prices HAVE risen in real terms. Wages are stagnent.
The BoE will intervenve which will be good for the Pound to Euro but will not solve the underlying uncertainty.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Feb half term next year, same hotel, upgrade to Suite, in all other regards the same Ski holiday as last year. Around 7.5% cheaper this year. That pays for a ski pass. So, next season will not be more expensive, at all.
Stick that in your pipe Lord Haw Haw.
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@Strax, IT does not matter which way you look at it, this season will cost you more. You have to factor in what the rest of the year has cost you in rising prices , stagnant wages, inflation.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@stanton, My ski season will not, in any measure you have indicated, cost me more.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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stanton wrote: |
@Strax, IT does not matter which way you look at it, this season will cost you more. You have to factor in what the rest of the year has cost you in rising prices , stagnant wages, inflation. |
Really clutching at straws now!
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Next season will only cost you more if you spend more. If you spend less, it will cost you less. This is simple economics. You may be able to buy less, but saying that next season will be more expensive assumes you consume the same items. Some items are replaced in consumption over time (like horses and carts, replaced by cars, computers replacing your brain etc)
Just ski where the price is cheapest.
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You know it makes sense.
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Bigtipper wrote: |
Next season will only cost you more if you spend more. If you spend less, it will cost you less. This is simple economics. You may be able to buy less, but saying that next season will be more expensive assumes you consume the same items. Some items are replaced in consumption over time (like horses and carts, replaced by cars, computers replacing your brain etc)
Just ski where the price is cheapest. |
Bulgaria, Romania.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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achilles wrote: |
Cyclical fluctuation of pound.
Quote: |
“We were wrong. Contrary to our expectations, GBP has been exclusively driven by cyclical forces in 2017,” says David Bloom, Strategist with HSBC Bank plc based in London. “Combined with a more hawkish BoE, we revise our year-end 2017 forecast.”
What appears to have caught Bloom and his team surprise is Sterling's unwillingness to be swayed by Brexit fears. |
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LOL. I check the exchange rate almost daily to see how much less this month's salary is worth and to try to judge when to move it into €. It shifts up or down almost immediately following any Brexit related sound bite. One temporary upwards blip around January when the Supreme Court ruled May couldn't bypass Parliament to trigger art. 50 then downward spiral until last week's suggestion that Carney might raise interest rates - and now back on the downwards trend again.
But anyway, the fact that HSBC scrap their forecast for £-€ parity is hardly something worth celebrating, cheering, or feeling remotely optimistic about. That it was ever a semi-realistic possibility is shocking.
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LOL also every time someone posts here saying this season won't be more expensive as they'll just downgrade their accommodation/apres/meals/lift pass. Expecting to pay the same amount of money but get less for it absolutely demonstrates that this season will be more expensive.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Tue 19-09-17 10:30; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@clarky999, innit. This thread is fast resembling an Edward Lear poem for the amount of nonsense being spouted. If comments are taken on face value, there are some seriously deluded people on here.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@clarky999,
Quote: |
LOL also every time someone posts here saying this season won't be more expensive as they'll just downgrade their accommodation/apres/meals/lift pass. Expecting to pay the same amount of money but get less for it absolutely demonstrates that this season will be more expensive.
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Hmmm, even with a room upgrade, my ski holiday is 7.5% cheaper than last year. What you on about?
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clarky999 wrote: |
LOL also every time someone posts here saying this season won't be more expensive as they'll just downgrade their accommodation/apres/meals/lift pass. Expecting to pay the same amount of money but get less for it absolutely demonstrates that this season will be more expensive. |
Genau ..
Some folks in here just do not understand ...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Strax, but why post hard evidence when you can post idle speculation?
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Strax wrote: |
@clarky999,
Quote: |
LOL also every time someone posts here saying this season won't be more expensive as they'll just downgrade their accommodation/apres/meals/lift pass. Expecting to pay the same amount of money but get less for it absolutely demonstrates that this season will be more expensive.
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Hmmm, even with a room upgrade, my ski holiday is 7.5% cheaper than last year. What you on about? |
I am on about:
Bigtipper wrote: |
Next season will only cost you more if you spend more. If you spend less, it will cost you less. This is simple economics. You may be able to buy less, but saying that next season will be more expensive assumes you consume the same items. Some items are replaced in consumption over time (like horses and carts, replaced by cars, computers replacing your brain etc)
Just ski where the price is cheapest. |
skimastaaah wrote: |
I (personally) will not enjoy the 75/80 Euro lunches for two again, but will expect the cost of a beer or a bottle of wine to limit just how much I drink. Instead of 25 to 30 days skiing a year I may just ski 20! ............ hotel prices pretty much the same (if not cheaper in some resorts), the lift pass costs may well rise, but this will be countered by what I don't spend either in the resort bars or the mountain restaurants.
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PaulC1984 wrote: |
Now I'm not blind, I can see that the cost of my lift passes has increased, as has the cost of eating out whilst there - I just set myself a budget in euros the same as last year and stick to it - not because I'm short of cash but because thats what normal people do. Yes this means the odd bottle of wine less or one less meal out, but to be honest I don't miss them - I rather enjoy cooking in rather than eating out. - Again this will be the resorts losing out on ££ not me. |
ETC.
I.e. people saying that they will just cut things out to keep to the same budget so their skiing isn't more expensive, without seeming to realise that explicitly stating that expecting to get less for the same £ is explicitly conceding that things will be more expensive next season.
If you've found a great deal, then great, but it doesn't change the fundamental fact that in almost every situation more pounds are/will be required to get an equivalent service/product in Europe this season than last, and particularly more than the one before.
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Our trip to Tignes next January is costing us £20 more than 2017.
The reason for that is having to go a different week and hence losing a 2 for 1 discount on ski passes.
Identical week would have been cheaper.
Go figure, eh
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@nelly0168, is that including lunch/coffee/beer on the mountain and everything else you might consume that isn't covered by the (half board?) package price?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@clarky999, don't forget price rises, wage stagnation and inflation: all the indices [b]@Stanton[b] would want you to include.
You aren't Stanton are you?
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stanton wrote: |
@Strax, IT does not matter which way you look at it, this season will cost you more. You have to factor in what the rest of the year has cost you in rising prices , stagnant wages, inflation. |
Unlike your posts, my wages haven't been stagnant.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Strax, no.
All I'm saying is that a meal in a mountain restaurant that cost €20 last season still costs €20 this season and €20 this season is more pounds than it was last season or the season before that. And going back to my original post, that from constantly watching the exchange rate it is very obvious that the exchange rate drops further - almost immediately - every time Davis or Barnier (etc) mention anything about the progress of Brexit negotiations.
I hope everyone has lots of great skiing next season and I have an irrational feeling it's going to be a snowy one, but regardless of feelings for/against Brexit I find it very hard to see how anyone can disagree with the above.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The exchange rate is a fact. So on the pure basis nobody can argue all other things being equal it will be more expensive this season assuming at the time people make their purchase the exchange rate is worse than it was one year previous. However in the OP it was stated it was because "Brexit strains stack up". Currency fluctuations are determined by all manner of things - some factional, some rational and some less rational. Whilset there is no doubt Brexit will be one of those factors, I would suggest anyone claiming to know how much of an effect and which way it will effect the fluctuation of the pound is barmy. Well, the cap clearly fits. Another thing, the OP stated "1 Pound =$1.10 and €1.03 Coming !!!!" Well it came and it went. Maybe it will come again, maybe it won't. See last point. QED.
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@SnoodlesMcFlude, nor have mine, but unfortunately for it's it's nothing to do with our incomes, it's how many €'s one of your £'s buys. It doesn't matter how many £'s you have, you the exchange rate to € is still worse than it was last year and the year before, but almost certainly not as bad as it's going to be next year. It's the price we're paying, and will continue to pay for years to come, for making the monumentally idiotic decision to leave the largest and profitable trading block in the world.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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@esaw1, Maybe but family's who go at Holiday Peak Times will feel the difference & prices have gone up (food beer etc) in Austria since last season.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Quote: |
@esaw1, Maybe but family's who go at Holiday Peak Times will feel the difference & prices have gone up (food beer etc) in Austria since last season.
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So price rises in Austria are a result of Brexit, according to @stanton, . Can't wait to see that argument for that.
I'm taking my family at peak time (Feb half term), and can you guess how much extra its costing me?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Dr John wrote: |
@SnoodlesMcFlude, nor have mine, but unfortunately for it's it's nothing to do with our incomes, it's how many €'s one of your £'s buys. It doesn't matter how many £'s you have, you the exchange rate to € is still worse than it was last year and the year before |
I know that, but of course that wasn't what Shirley was saying. The rest of the year hasn't had any serious cost as a result of "rising prices, stagnant wages, inflation", I've lost more money by virtue of only just being able to sell a car for less (nett) than I was offered part exchange late last year. I agree that the pound is weaker, but not the the degree that Stanton was saying it would. In the scheme of things we're still not anywhere near "next season is going to cost a LOT more"...especially as the season that numbnuts was referring to was the 16-17 season.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@clarky999, there is a flaw in your argument.
If last year you climbed up a hill with your skis and boots, and skied down, that cost you a certain amount. The exchange rate changes, so you decide to climb a different hill and ski down, it costs the same.
Consequently, it is not more expensive, it is just different. You decide to consume something else.
Just like electric cars and petrol cars. You are not going to say electric cars are going to get more expensive because of the exchange rate. Electric cars are going to get cheaper, and replace petrol cars. When the price reduces, equilibrium will occur and the substitution effect will occur.
You have to change to index at that time.
Therefore, if you have an index of items, which make up inflation, your objective is to pick all the items which will only go down in price and do not buy any of those which will go up. (as the exchange rate will nullify their profit margins because there will be no sales)
The price will reduce, and then you will find it cheaper. (even with exchange rate changes)
This will cause some providers to go out of business, and a recession.
Mr Junker will regret his comments, and eat his hat!
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@PaulC1984, I think what Clarky is saying is that all else being equal the exchange rate drop will end up costing you more whilst away in Europe. Yes you can change your plans to make up for the drop (eat out less, go to a different place etc) but the point still stands. Life in Europe is more expensive now for people earning pounds. Once you add in any cost inflation for the goods you want to buy then it's even more expensive (today). Rates go up and down of course.
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@Bennyboy1, I Know, I know exactly what he is saying and I am not disagreeing with that in entirety - what I am saying however is your holiday need not be more expensive and even if you aren't prepared to change anything at all, Stantons view that EVERYTHING will go up with the change in exchange rate is rubbish. Only things you buy in Europe, with euros will change - the likes of hotels, flights, insurance, etc etc will not increase - in fact I have found them to decrease over the last 2 years, which offsets against the increases elsewhere.......
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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clarky999 wrote: |
......
LOL. I check the exchange rate almost daily to see how much less this month's salary is worth and to try to judge when to move it into €..... |
@clarky999, I am so happy that you are having lots of laughs. If you are happy, then everybody is happy - and laughter is good for your health.
......I do realise that people converting sterling income into € have concerns - always a risk when taking on commitments in one currency when the income is in another - but saying that doesn't help you a lot.
Just had a quick look at the exchange rate a year ago - it was €1.17. Today it was €1.13. So 3.4% down today from then. Maybe no need to panic.
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What was it in December 15 i.e. 6 months before the ref?
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