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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Do all women in the Tyrol ski with their tops off? I'm sold.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Taking a quick glance back, by and large the models have handled December well within the reliable time frame. The extended dry spell was identified well ahead of time as well as the cold then warm spell.

Any mid month snowfall has tended to crop up intermittently in the 10-14 day range and not surprisingly should have been treated with caution and is currently looking unlikely.

If there is a signal for a change to snowier weather it needs to look stronger and be more persistent than anything that has cropped up so far. The overriding signal for at least the next 7-10 days is for continuing dry weather.

There are currently some weak suggestions of a shift around 20 December (plus or minus), but they need to firm up before any confidence can be considered.

Still the sun is shining, it's dry and you'll be having fun if you are out in the hills.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
As usual, this is the best (most exciting/frustrating/agitating) thread of them all.
Right up there with Andy Murray playing Đoković.
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Jonpim wrote:
As usual, this is the best (most exciting/frustrating/agitating) thread of them all.
Right up there with Andy Murray playing Đoković.


My first post - I've been camping out on this site from November to April every year for the past 4 or 5 years, and have finally decided to join in!

I'm off to Meribel on the 22nd, so am hoping like mad its going to completely chuck it down before I get there... !

Hi everyone!
Very Happy
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Welcome @Chadspurs40
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Im hoping the same for Zermatt on the 21st
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
This little sequence on the 06z GFS op run would drag in some snow and lower temperatures across the Alps around 18/19 December. At this stage it is really just an option rather than a forecast.



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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
06Z reverts back to cold for the FI. In fact very cold especially in the East.



EDIT : NOZA IS FAST Toofy Grin
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@AthersT, ha! The final frame of that run (+384) is lovely. Full of snowy menace. Obviously though...
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@nozawaonsen, Yep I was just posting the temperature scenarios as I feel posting snowy scenarios raises too much hope and creates alot of hysteria. haha

EDIT - It does look like a Northern Stau though Cool


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Thu 8-12-16 11:40; edited 1 time in total
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19-21 December looks like in the latest GFS run to be 10-25cm ATM. Long term caution of course....
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
OK, only recently got back into skiiing, have got a Xmas honeymoon booked in for Grandvalira flying out on the 18th for 10 nights. I know we should be alright with 140km open alreadyand plenty of snow making, but obviously fresh stuff and more runs would be decent.

Question is can I take the overall outlook from the alps focussed forecasting in this thread to apply to the Pyrenees too?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Whagwan, outlook for the Pyrenees is also fairly dry.

The cold 06z FI op run was very much an outlier.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Ensembles still very dry
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
TBH, as long as most places have water reserves sufficient, persistent cold (so that cannons can run) and sunny is arguably better that precipitous, snowy and avalanchey, at least round Cham, for the holiday period at least.

That's what most of our clients will appreciate.
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Poster: A snowHead
@Whagwan, well if it's your honeymoon at least you;ll have other ways to pass the day if skiing is iffy
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Boris, I'm confused, what else is there in life besides skiing ?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Weathercam wrote:
Back to the Alps and the recent High pressure is now breaking down and charts are showing Atlantic air driven across mainland France.
That fresh Atlantic air when it tracks into the hot air is what will cause the problems and the most violent period for storms will be Friday and on into Saturday, transfer day (again)......though not much fun in a camp site, especially if by a river!


I was just reading this and thinking finally "salvation from the skies" - then I saw it was posted in July Sad
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@davidof, camp site was the clue Toofy Grin

Outlook is looking very mild, though again here today on the Costa del Geriatrica temps are a balmy 12degrees and can see one kitesurfer out and stronger winds are back at the weekend so looks like I'll have no excuses rolling eyes

Then back out for five months end of next week - so naturally I'll have both bikes in the van, though they're usually for the Spring, but looks like I'll be cycling (again) pre Xmas.

And now questioning what was the point of getting a 4Motion van Puzzled
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AthersT wrote:




Anyone know where I can get charts for Lat 46 Lon 7 (PdS) like AthersT's white one above?

The one I get from Wetterzentrale is black and because of the colours, it doesn't help to pick out the GFS and Control runs (doesn't help that I'm colourblind).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pointmap.aspx?map=EU&lid=ENS

I can find a white one for Geneva, but I can't work out on the webpage how to change the Lon to one click to the right.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.aspx?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=201&bw=False&lat=46.2022&lon=6.1457&zip=

Thanks in advance.
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@snoozeboy, http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=46.19&lon=6.83

Just edit the coordinates in the URL - the above is the PDS coordinates according to Google.
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Quote:

Downgrades is the story of this December IMHO


@Jellybeans1000, I think it often feels like downgrades are the story. Particularly when we're desperate, we kind of overlook the initial upgrade when something good pops up on the charts for the first time, and only remember when it's inevitably snatched away later (at least one run will do this)...

Anyway, earlier in December and at the end of November, for quite a while the charts were showing almost nothing of interest, so there wasn't really that much to downgrade, even if it was indeed pretty dismal.

Quote:

ie nobody really knows, but looking for patterns and repeat ability is all that can be done.


@kitenski, yep. And with that in mind, I don't mind the current trend, particularly for the northern Alps. Details are obviously entirely unclear at this point, and due to very high variability between models and runs at the moment, it is difficult to predict anything confidently, BUT in many of the various outcomes being forecast, I'd argue there does appear to be a positive broader trend for the European high to shift West.

Ultimately what we really need is for that big high pressure to gloop off back into the ocean and let some Atlantic (or Arctic...) weather in over the top, and let's just say that the chances of that happening 10-14 days from now are higher today than they were 10-14 days from a week ago, if you see what I mean.

I've been monitoring some of the longer term models and looking into some of the more abstruse drivers of our weather, including teleconnections, MJO, GWO, QBO, stratospheric conditions, etc., but I can't add much of value at this point because a) I'm not sure anyone here would appreciate my ramblings, b) my mastery of these topics is well short of what it needs to be to declaim on it here authoritatively and c) the picture is a bit of a mess at the moment. More accomplished forecasters with a much deeper understanding of these factors than I possess are struggling to use this information constructively for forecasts beyond the next week at the moment. A lot of contradictions / competing forces / mixed signals.

So I'll stick to talking up the chance of pre-Christmas snow and 'creating hysteria'...
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I love this roller coaster ride of a thread. From not having a clue what all the terminology meant a few weeks ago, the patient simple way you guys describe things has me waiting for the next run with baited breath. Great to see a lot of informed reasonable opinions being discussed.

Keep up the good work. Oh . . . . . . and for god's sake, make it snow!
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I'd also like to add that I'm thoroughly enjoying tracking this thread - heading out to ski in Switzerland on Monday & whilst the charts and analysis are very informative, I am hoping for a severe short term shock to the forecast.

Cheers and keep up the good work guys!
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Weathercam wrote:


And now questioning what was the point of getting a 4Motion van Puzzled


I had a 4Motion company Golf once and it was very good in the Gorges d'Arly which frequently had black ice in the morning.
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AthersT wrote:
@snoozeboy, http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=46.19&lon=6.83

Just edit the coordinates in the URL - the above is the PDS coordinates according to Google.


Outstanding. Thanks.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
12z GFS building heights over Scandinavia. Would pull cold in from the east mid month.



But maybe not close enough to reach Alps.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, the equivalent 0z ECM run had that deep low further NE just off NI/Scotland, then breaking down across central Europe over the weekend. Interesting to see if it's on the 12z soon, and also which one (GFS or ECM) was more accurate for next Thursday (15th).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS building heights over Scandinavia. Would pull cold in from the east mid month.


But maybe not close enough to reach Alps.


Seems years since we had a Beast from the East.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Not an especially inspired 12z GFS. The op run ditches anything especially cold in FI and in fact heads mild. Generally dry. Would re roll the dice on that one.

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Poster: A snowHead
what does ECM say?
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ECM sends that trough on the 15th to the north like every other storm. But there's a deeper low just behind.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?archive=0&mode=1&ech=72&type=0&carte=

Can also see ECM goes for a lower pressure anomaly over British Isles vs dominant high pressure from GFS for same weekend
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The UK Met Office are envisaging a bit of wind and rain carried on the jet stream riding over the European high pressure which builds more strongly by late December, and perhaps sinks again, letting the Atlantic back at the north as we head into NY. Not a hint in their wording of an undercut, or any cold from the east via a Scandi High, or a northerly plunge out of a Greenland High or even a mid-Atlantic toppler.

Quote:
UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Dec 2016 to Thursday 22 Dec 2016:
It'll be dry and bright for most, but patchy overnight frost and fog are likely in the southeast. Through the week periods of wet and windy weather are expected to move across the UK from the west. The most unsettled conditions are likely across the north and west, with drier and brighter weather for southern and eastern areas. It'll be windy at times, with the possibility of gales in the west and northwest, but it will be much less windy further south and east. By mid December there'll probably be some longer, drier spells between the wet weather, perhaps heralding a change to something generally more settled. It'll be fairly mild initially but temperatures are likely to return closer to normal, although passing weather systems may raise them at times.

Updated at: 1140 on Thu 8 Dec 2016

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Dec 2016 to Friday 6 Jan 2017:
Whilst there is a good deal of uncertainty for this period, it is most likely that more settled conditions may dominate associated with high pressure affecting the UK. If the pressure does build, then we can expect drier than average conditions for most areas with lighter winds. Temperatures are also then likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. There will probably also be some milder, unsettled interludes though, and as we head into the New Year this may become more of a feature in our weather, with the greatest likelihood of changeable conditions in the northwest, giving rain here at times.

Updated at: 1141 on Thu 8 Dec 2016
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It's coming like a freight train. Be brave, take it head on!


http://youtube.com/v/Yja2VmZOfdA


The Siberian Express will ride again next week, as frigid air pushes across much of the U.S. with temperatures in some places dropping to as much as 50 degrees Fahrenheit below average for this time of year.
The cold will come courtesy of two main weather features — a wobble in the upper level polar vortex that will pull cold air out of Siberia, Alaska and Canada,


A lot of North American ski resorts are going to get several storms over the next week. Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, along with Oregon and Washington are starting to see snow falling and continuing into the weekend, and through the beginning of next week.
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12z runs poor all round. Very dry on both ECM and GFS, with one minor exception around the 14th on GFS. Good thing I don't have time for a big analysis this evening. Roll on tomorrow's runs.
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That train looks amazing.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

Summer Snow in Australia.
Very Rare.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 8-12-16 22:20; edited 1 time in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Toadman wrote:
It's coming like a freight train. Be brave, take it head on!


http://youtube.com/v/Yja2VmZOfdA


The Siberian Express will ride again next week, as frigid air pushes across much of the U.S. with temperatures in some places dropping to as much as 50 degrees Fahrenheit below average for this time of year.
The cold will come courtesy of two main weather features — a wobble in the upper level polar vortex that will pull cold air out of Siberia, Alaska and Canada,


A lot of North American ski resorts are going to get several storms over the next week. Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, along with Oregon and Washington are starting to see snow falling and continuing into the weekend, and through the beginning of next week.

That's not great news for Europe....
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@Jellybeans1000, even snowfall is upside down in australia, in europe we have snow on top of the mountains
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After a couple of runs, 12th Dec and 15th Dec events will probably just be dustings in Austria.
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