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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
scary surface hoar!


@rob@rar, yep, but it does make the most beautiful and unique sound when you ski it Cool
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
12Z looking pretty good for the 21st still Cool
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
AthersT
Don't tease us, put up a graph or something
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@notnats,

21st


22nd


The ensembles are available at about 1800 GMT
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Cracking 12z. Series of snow events starting on the 18th. Too far out, as ever, but good viewing nonetheless.






And just for fun:



Hooray...Everything's going to be totally alright...
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Thanks, are those forecasts based on the control run ?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@notnats, Think the OP run, I could be wrong though.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@AthersT, @notnats, yes the op run.
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OK, I was too slow there. Let me go one better by offering some visual projections of the situation on the ground come Christmas:



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moffatross wrote:
Quote:
scary surface hoar!


@rob@rar, yep, but it does make the most beautiful and unique sound when you ski it Cool
Yup, it's lovely and amazing to see, but then it gets buried under the next big snowfall...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
WellingtonBoot wrote:
OK, I was too slow there. Let me go one better by offering some visual projections of the situation on the ground come Christmas:

Please, be realistic. It will be like this, at least:

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@rob@rar, There's little doubt. If GFS shows it at t240-t384, it's a sure thing.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@WellingtonBoot, fantastic thanks, I'll go book a holiday now based on your forecast Cool
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
WellingtonBoot wrote:
@rob@rar, There's little doubt. If GFS shows it at t240-t384, it's a sure thing.
Yup, you can take it to the bank. But nothing on the 22nd please as I have an airport run to do.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Yep this is great insider stuff. I've loaded up on cold weather futures, 3x leverage.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@langball, Yeah you're welcome. This is a win-win-win situation. Can't lose. A sure thing. Ever snowier holidays for everybody for ever. These are boom times for snow, and I'm an expert, and I guarantee you nothing can possibly go wrong.

etc...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@rob@rar, I'll get on the phone right away and sort that for you.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Heading out to CHX for the New Year, which skis to pack? SL, touring or the big dogs?
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@JeanPaulValley, pack all three pairs. There is no such thing as having too many skis
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poo-poo just got real.
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If everytime Gfs T240 trough T384 is taken into account, this will be the result:

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
In other news...cold temps, and a Pacific AR are about to make their acquaintance over Oregon in the next 24 hrs.... Good things can come of these types of get togethers. Toofy Grin

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!


EC Monthly above (old data) EPS Control below (new data)
Looking nice for the 19-22 December

This event should be result of the change to Positive NAO IMO.

Looking at closer events, the 12th should give a bit of snow in Austria. There is some sort of trough in between 12th and 20th forecast, but EC and GFS forecast it on different days and from different directions.
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18z keeps the break down in FI on 21 December (though not before).

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21st you say? The first ski day of my holiday (look for fingers crossed emoticon).
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This thread is a roller coaster crack like addiction ride. Snow! Wind? High pressure!?! Snow!!!!! Unseasonal high temps????? Distant snow!!!! High pressure??? Hill walking. Cold! Snow making!! Ribbons of white? Concrete ice roads. Rocks..........Distant snow!!!!!!!!!!!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

18z keeps the break down in FI on 21 December (though not before).


I'd say that's not quite true. The whole run is a cracker in the context of recent runs, and it offers several snow opportunities before the major breakdown around the 21st. Essentially the 'breakdown', as currently forecast, consists of the high pressure shifting West and allowing systems into Europe over its northern flank. On this run that happens gradually, with a series of smaller systems coming over the top and delivering varying (if modest) quantities of snow before the major event later in the run.

Key points:

- The system on the 11th/12th has been upgraded again. Not dramatic, but from showing no precipitation for a few runs, it now has steady snizzle for a day or so in western Austria. If it came off, might be a few cms in that.

- Sends another upper level shortwave through on the 15th with results potentially similar to the system on the 12th.

- Another little trough comes over the top around the 17th, leaving 5-10cm in western Austria and eastern Switzerland.

- Finally, as you say, a proper breakdown around the 21st/22nd, when everywhere gets a pasting.

As ever, I'm not suggesting anything beyond 4-6 days is reliable at all, particularly when it comes to minor features, precise tracks and precipitation, but it is good to see a model coming up with such scenarios. It suggests the broader synoptics might permit such features to develop (by setting the high pressure far enough South/West, for example).
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Am I the only one who having seen the picture of the 90% frozen globe from matejp found myself thinking hmmm ice age, bring it on, the powder looks phenomenal Smile
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@gordonrussell76, A few years ago, I did find myself secretly wishing that the glaciers would melt into and desalinate the North Atlantic sufficiently to stop the gulf stream, turning Europe 5 degrees colder and plunging us into a mini-Ice Age.

So to answer your question: No, you're not.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@WellingtonBoot, my post simply referred to the fact that the op run kept the same sort of pattern around the 21 December as the two before. That's all. As far as I can see it does. I wasn't referring to what happened earlier in the run. Though now you have I cant see any snowfall before then of any interest on 18z.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1247_ens.png
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, Didn't mean to criticise your comment excessively - was probably just reading too much into your "(though not before)" comment, which I took to mean, 'nothing interesting (ppn-wise) to look at before'. You are right of course about the similar pattern and the timing of the ultimate breakdown.

The other systems are of course mostly interesting as potential indicators/ones-to-watch. If we were taking the run as gospel, I would suggest the band around the 18th would be handy for western Austria.

Thanks for the ensembles chart. Interesting that the really broad spread only kicks in around the 19th. I guess we have a good idea of what to expect up to then for 850s. Average pleasingly low.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
To review, here is a review of possible events for the next couple of weeks...
- 12th Dec
This is 5cm or less to most of Austria.
-15th Dec
This is 5cm or less to most of Austria and parts of Switzerland and Germany.
Now it gets a bit murkier...
-17th Dec
5cm in Austria a possibility
-21st Dec
I think lots of people have their eyes glued to this system, which IMO will be a fizzer later on. This is because meteorological conditions don't point to a strong cold front. GFS has this at 20-30cm over most of the Alps with a bit of a downgrade in 00z run. EC has this 10-15cm with better conditions to the east.
Towards 23GMT today, I will share the view on longer range data with a fresh batch of EC data.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
00z GFS is still extremely dry. Op run temperatures drop to around average on 12 December and hold (despite a fair amount of scatter) until far FI when they dip on 18 December on the op run. But very dry all through until about 22 December.

Chamonix.



Zermatt.



Arlberg.

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@Jellybeans1000, I don't think anyone is taking anything on 21 December particularly seriously. It was just something more interesting that had cropped up in a couple of runs yesterday. The general outlook and in particular in the more reliable seven day range is still lacking in serious snow, I can't even see the meagre snowfall amounts you are suggesting to be honest.
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Again at the far range of the model, but ECM brings in colder weather on 18 December. Again you'd want to see this repeated across runs and models before investing any confidence in it.

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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Jellybeans1000, I don't think anyone is taking anything on 21 December particularly seriously. It was just something more interesting that had cropped up in a couple of runs yesterday. The general outlook and in particular in the more reliable seven day range is still lacking in serious snow, I can't even see the meagre snowfall amounts you are suggesting to be honest.

Yeah most of the places are just going to get a dusting, the best falls will be 5cm. I'm not taking 21st December too seriously, we are starting to get a bit of model consistency and will continue to.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Downgrades is the story of this December IMHO
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
AAAAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH SNOW FFS - only 2 weeks until I go Evil or Very Mad
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so if my limited knowledge is correct, anything out even in the 15th/16h and esp 21st could easily get "reversed" to nothing on the next GFS (or other forecasting tool) run? Or being glass half full it could also improve and come in earlier??

ie nobody really knows, but looking for patterns and repeat ability is all that can be done.
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@kitenski, yep. Consistency builds confidence, inconsistency weakens it. As the pattern builds so does confidence. If it remains scattered snippets, it's probably nonsense.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Thu 8-12-16 10:22; edited 1 time in total
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