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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Norrin Radd wrote:

http://www.skiresort.info/ski-resorts/europe/sorted/altitude-difference/


Wouldn't book a holiday at Les Haudères – L'Homazo.

Only a 5m drop.

http://www.skiresort.info/ski-resort/les-hauderes-lhomazo/
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davidof wrote:
mikeycharlton wrote:


I was thinking that 1741m is very high for an average.

Is that bottom of lowest lift to top of highest lift?


Yes.

On area or hectares of ski runs it is probably lower as mountains are usually pointy.

It is not very scientific but gives the idea that lack of snow below 2100m (as at the start of this season) is significant.



There are only 30 resorts in the Alps that have a bigger vertical than 1741m.

There are 636 ski resorts in the Alps.

Not sure how that 5% pulls the average up to 1741m?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
WellingtonBoot wrote:
Quote:

I wouldn't take a forecast beyond 7 days that seriously.


@nozawaonsen, An important message, that. Just want to acknowledge that I do understand all of that, since I'm clogging up these pages with my reports and musings.

I would say that the reliability of forecasts beyond 7 days can also vary significantly. In the last couple of weeks, for instance, I would suggest reliability was unusually high (for certain locations of interest to folks on here). This was evident in part due to the initial synoptics - certain setups being generally more stable - and partly by reasonable deduction, given the unusual consistency in the longer term forecasts.

Sometimes, such forecasts can (on the face of it at least) be almost worthless, since the synoptics are so dynamic that even a week out there is little forecasting consistency.

Right now, while there is more uncertainty than there was recently, I would suggest that I can still say more about what is likely to be happening on the 16th December than would usually be the case. While certain model runs are coming up with alternative solutions, European blocking is still a fairly consistent theme (and from experience, such setups are difficult to shift, and once breakdowns start appearing in the charts, they tend to cycle on and off and get pushed back at least a few days before they actually occur).

Absolutely correct about long term models. They all have have different accuracies, from the very low accuracy CFS to the best of the long term bunch, EPS Control. I'm not saying it is more accurate, to look at a 20 day forecast than a 5 day forecast, because obviously the 5 day forecast is way more accurate. But long term forecasts aren't all equal.
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Regarding 11/12 December


EC is definitely looking good for 10cm ATM on the 12z run for much of the Alps.
GFS isolates most of the falls to Austria with 5cm on the cards there. UKMO looks hopeful too..
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@Drogue, I think the telling point is that your argument against my logic relies on a whimsical, and impossible-in-the-real-world technique for perfect prediction. While it is in theory possible for such a technique to exist, which forecasts snowfall more accurately than measurement after the event, I would dispute that this is a reasonable objection to my argument, for the following reasons:

1. Such a technique could only rely on maths and physics more advanced than anything it is reasonable to believe we will ever understand. At this level, we would essentially need to be predicting the precise nature of interactions between unfathomably vast quantities of specific atoms and molecules in specific environments in advance. Moreover, given discoveries in quantum physics (essentially, 'non-determinism' at the quantum level), this may well be an impossibility rather than merely a vanishingly small probability.

2. Consequently, the only way we could test such a technique would be in the ordinary, scientific way, by measuring predictions against outcomes empirically, in which case it is once again impossible to verify that a predictive technique is more accurate than the technique used to measure outcomes.

QED

Think I might have gone beyond pedantry here...
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@mikeycharlton, I think they're talking about altitude rather than vertical... Incidentally, I need that list of 30 resorts...
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snowheads68 wrote:
Norrin Radd wrote:

http://www.skiresort.info/ski-resorts/europe/sorted/altitude-difference/


Wouldn't book a holiday at Les Haudères – L'Homazo.

Only a 5m drop.

http://www.skiresort.info/ski-resort/les-hauderes-lhomazo/


But what a 5 meters
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@mikeycharlton, I did wonder if they then used the area size, some of the big drops have huge ski areas?
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I think I will stick that link on another post, this is about weather.
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@WellingtonBoot you missed my point. It is extremely hard to accurately measure snowfall given that it is not uniform over a give area as it falls, it then moves in the wind and compacts the snow beneath and is compacted itself by the snow falling upon it. That's before you've added in any impact from sintering and melting. So my point was simply that it is dynamic and the apparently simple act of measuring is far more complex than it appears. And as such validating is only ever an approximation of a forecast which was only ever an approximation itself. But the real point behind all of it was people who think they have been forecast 23.5cm of snow are almost as deluded if not more so than those who believe that 23.5cm of snow was measured as having fallen. Like life right, it's like just an illusion, like. Wow. Deep. Whose round is it anyway?
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@nozawaonsen, Honestly, I didn't miss your point and I actually agree with you completely. I'm just a bit of a dick and spotted an opportunity to pick bones and write some long messages.

With that said, when you say those people "are almost as deluded if not more so", I have to protest becau-- nah I'm just kidding... wink
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Right now, most of the Alps is looking dry until January.

Xmas trails will probably be concrete.
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@Whitegold, absolutely.

Unless the weather changes between now and then.

Which of course it might well do.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Mid month rebuild of high pressure over Europe according to 12z ECM.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
If anyone likes cycling a lot of the high altitude cols are passable on a bike at the moment (although not officially). Obviously the Galibier, Izoard and Iseran are above the magic snowline.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Oregon looking to get pummeled. Cold temps in the PNW. Woke up to a bit of ice on the road. Going to be cold next two days. Temps a hair below 0 C, and then storm coming in on Wednesday night through Friday/Saturday. Mt Hood looks to be the place in the storms bullseye for now. Sierra's should see some snow albeit with rising freezing levels as the storm comes through.

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Some interesting model output this evening.

12th December
Generally models have downgraded snowfall on the 12th, but most runs today have still projected some kind of event. The exception is this evening's 18z, which pushes the precipitation 500 miles further East so that the Alps remain dry. So the bad news is the negative trend. The good news is that it is coming closer, and with most models still forecasting something for the 12th, the probability of at least some snow seems to be rising. If snow does indeed arrive on the 12th, currently western Austria looks most likely, with the amount decreasing as you head West.

Best scenario modelled: JMA 12z (not that I rate it at all): snow across the Alps, from <5cm in France to maybe 20cm in Austria
Worst scenario modelled: Nothing...

Mid-December and beyond
While high pressure is projected to remain in charge beyond the 12th by all models, disagreement on details increases, and beyond mid-December there is little consistency, both between consecutive outputs and between the different models. The two models I can see that forecast beyond mid-month, namely the GFS 18z and the ECM 12z control, both currently show positive scenarios, featuring chances of snow from smaller systems and possible full breakdowns and snowfall before Christmas.

Meaningless at that range as detailed forecasts, but still good to see the models are finding ways to get snow to the Alps within the next two weeks...
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The polar vortex is set to move over Alaska and North Canada, and its warmer opposite moves over Scandinavia. This creates warmer than average air across most of Europe, depending on wind patterns.
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00z GFS is very dry right into FI and generally mild.
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Here is three of the most accurate ensembles (without UKMO) predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation. NAO Index on the Vertical axis and Dates out to the 23rd (21st on EPS) is horizontal axis. Green line is Ensemble mean (the most accurate measure past 10 days) and the black line is the Control run (the most accurate measure before 10 days). The green zone around the lines is where the vast majority of runs are within, with outcomes in this area being quite possible. The blue lines that extend from the green zone are the outlier runs with low chance of this occurring. Below is proper forecast...
Quote:
All runs 00z, detailing NAO forecast. EPS is positive until at least 21st, low-medium severity event. GEFS is positive until 20th, low-medium severity event, negative beyond the 20th, looking weak at the moment. GEPS is positive until at least 23rd, low-medium severity event. Opinion: Positive NAO until 21st, low-medium severity. Long term Climatology suggest this may contribute to more highs, average temperatures and less moisture in Western Europe. It suggests the opposite for Scandinavia.

Might I add that colder temperatures occur in Scandinavia during Positive NAO....
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@Jellybeans1000, yep as you'd expect the ensemble spread on those charts gets extremely wide after 6 or 7 days. Hence I'd suggest substantial uncertainty beyond that time.

However, the suggestion of dominant high pressure over Europe, above average temperature and dry conditions is visible in both GFS and ECM this morning, with by and large quite a tight set of ensembles even in FI (high pressure being relatively stable).

The correlation is not surprising given the NAO index is derived from the comparative positions of high and low pressure systems in the Atlantic.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Jellybeans1000, yep as you'd expect the ensemble spread on those charts gets extremely wide after 6 or 7 days. Hence I'd suggest substantial uncertainty beyond that time.

However, the suggestion of dominant high pressure over Europe, above average temperature and dry conditions is visible in both GFS and ECM this morning, with by and large quite a tight set of ensembles even in FI (high pressure being relatively stable).

The correlation is not surprising given the NAO index is derived from the comparative positions of high and low pressure systems in the Atlantic.

But predicting the NAO is different and actually more accurate than predicting the lows coming through Western Europe. The Azores High and Icelandic Low are some of the most easiest systems to predict. Despite the large spread of ensemble runs, the mean tends to be not far off the actual figure, due to the fact it's an Oscillation.
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Okay no doubt this is a stupid question so forgive me!

In your experience, what's the maximum a dominant high pressure block like this would typically stick around for? i.e do they weaken over time so after a few weeks they inevitably break up, or is there nothing to stop it hanging around till say mid-Jan.

Shall I go and sit in the corner? Embarassed
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Sure and it's an interesting tool which may help give a broad brush feel for likely general conditions, but like any long term forecasting needs to be treated with caution.

About 10 days ago the Met Office contingency planners suggested an increased likelihood of a -NAO in early winter and therefore increased chances of blocking and a likelihood of colder conditions in early winter for the UK. I should say that may yet turn out to be the case and it was sensibly caveated.

However, it means little right now in Scotland where there is potential for record breaking mild temperatures today.

http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/38223614
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Handy Turnip wrote:
Okay no doubt this is a stupid question so forgive me!

In your experience, what's the maximum a dominant high pressure block like this would typically stick around for? i.e do they weaken over time so after a few weeks they inevitably break up, or is there nothing to stop it hanging around till say mid-Jan.

Shall I go and sit in the corner? Embarassed
Some stick around for months... but in Western Europe (Alps), it should move on within a fortnight except in very rare cases.
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@Handy Turnip, it can stick around a long time, it can break up briefly and rebuild, or it can collapse suddenly.
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@Handy Turnip, nobody can predict how long unfortunately!!
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I love this thread.

It's often depressing given I go to Avoriaz on the 27th and remembering the last couple of years but offers a glimpse of hope when you guys hint at the 'right' prediction. Along with watching the start of the ski racing season on Eurosport and the new gear pull-outs in various ski magazines it really does herald the start of the ski season.

Keep it coming @WellingtonBoot, @Jellybeans1000, @nozawaonsen, et al we appreciate your efforts.
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You know it makes sense.
@levart, Avoriaz opens this weekend...significantly better start than in recent years...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
06z offers a way out at... t+348 which is 21 December... Obviously nothing one can take seriously at this point. But makes a change from high pressure.



If this starts to crop up repeatedly it might mean something. For now I'm off for some Glühwein...
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Is it cold enough for a Glühwein Noza? Once again, thanks for all the insights and for sharing your extensive knowledge with us..
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better than seeing the constant high pressure in situ, BUT a long way off.

Its got to give way at some point and the 21st would be perfect for my NY trip
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@nozawaonsen, 06Z indeed is very...diverse might be the best way of putting it.
And that Low pressure at the end is a doozy or an "alp paster" as @WellingtonBoot said, fingers crossed ayyy!

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Jellybeans1000 wrote:
The polar vortex is set to move over Alaska and North Canada, and its warmer opposite moves over Scandinavia. This creates warmer than average air across most of Europe, depending on wind patterns.


Please explain this?? What is the definition of the "opposite of a polar vortex" ? Are you suggesting there is another vortex with another name which has a mass of warmer air underneath it and that this vortex resides in the polar region? Because I have never heard of anything other than a "polar vortex" which resides in the polar region (assuming we're talking about vortex or an area of low pressure.

In fact a chunk of the polar vortex is forecast to move across Scandanavia in the next few days but the air associated with it is still very cold. Not sure I would define this chunk/portion of the vortex as being the "Warmer opposite"?? Unless I have completely misunderstood what you are trying to say??
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Handy Turnip, it can stick around a long time, it can break up briefly and rebuild, or it can collapse suddenly.



Jellybeans1000 wrote:
@Handy Turnip, Some stick around for months... but in Western Europe (Alps), it should move on within a fortnight except in very rare cases.


Cheers guys!

@nozawaonsen, thanks for all the insight as always, fingers crossed for 21st Dec!
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@AthersT, Few good things about those ensemble charts:

- The operational isn't a cold outlier. It's one of the warmer runs overall, but still with a full shift to cold and snow by the end, and even at the end it's no outlier for temperature (even if it is a bit for precipitation).

- Average 850 temps below 0C from the 12th to the end.

- Still a bunch of ensemble runs showing some level of precipitation on the 12th. (Caveats: those charts are obviously for eastern Austria so that may be irrelevant further West, even for western Austria, and realistically after a series of operational runs from all models over the last day, the likelihood is still that the 12th is a dud.)

Not a great morning for ECM. Both operational and longer term control are very dry, although the end of the op is not without promise.

Generally, all to play for beyond about the 17th. Enough happening at the far end of current runs that a decent dump before Christmas is still possible.
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franga wrote:
Is it cold enough for a Glühwein Noza? Once again, thanks for all the insights and for sharing your extensive knowledge with us..


Yup, bloody FREEZING at night and in the shadows.

In other news, we don't need any snowfall as we're growing our own (dodgy iPhone shots):





This was right down in the shadows in the valley (Stubaital). Things could be interesting when it snows again if this sort of stuff has been growing on the mountain too...
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@clarky999, is there an inversion in Austria like France?
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@kitenski, actually I haven't really been paying attention - my parents have been visiting and given current conditions + upcoming holiday over xmas skiing isn't really on my agenda atm. However that snow was around 14-1500m in a section of the valley that gets no sun at all at this time of year.
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@clarky999, scary surface hoar!
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