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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
staffsan wrote:
Since ive only ever skied during real winter, what do you guys mean with spring conditions? Is it a good thing?

I feel super discouraged over the latest VT forecasts with high temps and freezing points over 3000m next week!

Im imagining wet pools all over the place, unskiable pistes and wet heavy or icy snow everywhere. Please say thats not what springlike conditions are like?



In the European Alps, Feb is the best month for offpiste.

Mar and Apr are the best months for onpiste.

Those months get sunny days, pleasant temps, fewer crowds, and deep snowcover (head to high resorts).

Alpine pistes are always icy or slushy in any month, from Oct to May (due to being close to the sea).

Perfect conditions in the Alps are rare, and often shortlived.

Go to VT and enjoy the soft hero-snow of Mar. Much nicer to ski than the concrete trails of Dec and Jan.
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Bit of a warm up and drying for the West Coast USA. Still some moisture to wring out in the PNW. Cool and snowy toward New England. Spring like, even though it isn't officially Spring just yet.
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clarky999 wrote:
Interesting day...

New snow was VERY wet and heavy in Ischgl. Level 4. Avalanches everywhere - natural and triggered - on all aspects.

*Very carefully* skied some mellow trees early on in the day. Paavo almost makes it look like powder:

Stopped around 10:30/11 and cruised the pistes instead, due to further warming and other people.

Seriously on a lv. 4 day: "Is it steep? We just followed your tracks." Crazy.

All sorts of other crazy going on too. Fools without any safety kit group skiing steep slopes right between very big and obvious avalanches with deep crowns and terrain traps/pistes below.

One example, but it was going on everywhere:



Is this just stupidity, or sheer ignorance? Surely it must be obvious even to total non-skiers that that slope is dangerous?

Starting to think we should introduce a fine of €1000 for anyone who skis offpiste without safety kit. At least that might actually make people start thinking.

Course it would help if resorts would do a bit more to make people aware - even a simple Facebook post each day would make a big difference. Today Ischgl stated they were 'closed for security work.' Why not just be up front that actually it's super dangerous and we're bombing the poo-poo out of everything so you don't die?


As they say, "It's a fine line between stupid and ignorant." Personally I think it's a pretty big gap... In any event, I've seen this in the Arlberg before after a big dump, and the powder frenzy commences. It happens in the States too but maybe not quite as evident with the out of bounds resort boundary situation we have here. Probably better discussed in the Oft-piste forums.
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Jeepers Shocked full depth and all (not surprisingly).

Piedmonte (IT) already have avvy kit requirements for off piste and I understand pretty draconian results if you cause a slide that damages anyone/thing.

Punta Indren lift above Gressoney(s) has a requirement that is sometimes checked, to have kit.

I do not understand why this is not mandatory elsewhere?
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Interesting that the theme for this winter is continuing. Up to 3 and 5 days out forecasts show a much needed cold spell with snow, then 24 hours before it changes to a brief dip in temps with a bit of snow then mild again. We had 22 degrees down the valley yesterday which is mad.

Sad Sad Sad
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I simply don't believe it

.Victor Meldew Very Happy
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Jellybeans1000 wrote:
@staffsan Spring is warmer than Winter, limited snow falls


Is that really the case statistically?

Anecdotally, plenty of snow (or at least precipitation) falls in March and April - April showers etc - and March often seems to bring the biggest storms of the season.

But yeah, Spring is great and definitely the best time to ski in the Alps IMO. Snowpack is deep, and it's either snowing and powdery or sunny and corn/slush - nice and soft snow either way.
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Is it just my optimistic eye or are there a couple of little hints that there might be a bit of snow coming from next sunday on? (for the northern alps that is)
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Currently in La Tania for the forthcoming week.
Wall to wall sunshine forecast all week.
Gorgeous, but the snow is suffering.
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GFS continuing to toy with the possibility of further snowfall for the northern Alps around 19/20 March. That should start to come into clearer resolution in the next day or two... meanwhile some very pleasant conditions.



The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees

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How do you interpret those? Are the coloured lines different forecast models, and the white line some kind of median? In that case - is GFS really off compared to the others dyring ~27/3?

Are the upper lines temp, and the lower precipitation?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@staffsan, read this link http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852
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12z GFS keeps it snowy and cold next Sunday and Monday.
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You know it makes sense.
Latest long term forecast from me.
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/european-alps-on-long-term-13th-march.html
Overall pattern is the snow season isn't over, but temperatures are rising.
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nozawaonsen, cold would be nice, but if it stays as warm as now it will be rainy round here.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Still cold on Next Sunday and Monday. Next Tuesday to Friday looks even colder. Warm for this week though.
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@Jonpim, well yes. But the point was that the last few GFS runs are suggesting the temperature will drop. ECM doesn't mind you, so still a lot of uncertainty. Pretty mild over the next few days.
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GFS has nudged back any cooler weather to 22 March on this evenings output.
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Mayrhofen on snowforecast is looking pretty horrible Friday/Saturday now. Heavy rain at altitude. Really hope they have got that wrong. rolling eyes
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Hi

Heading out to Madonna Di Campiglio on the 26th March 2017 for a week. Be grateful for any weather experts thoughts on the potential for further snowfall for the Dolomites. Seems warm out there at the moment but with the possibility of the weather cooling after this coming weekend with potentially some precipitation.

Is this still the perceived outlook?

Many thanks
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A lot of mid-Atlantic resorts in the US have closed for the season in the past couple weeks.

Been a very dry and warm Winter along most of the eastern coast.

This is from Perfect North Slopes resort in Indiana.

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http://www.perfectnorth.com/faqs

".........our typical closing date is early March.........."

rolling eyes
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In Austria I got my best piste skiing done from mid Nov to Xmas. For the past few years the best powder and off piste around here has been in March although this year we have not had an many high snowfall days.
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For more years than I can remember we have had massive dumps in the Pyrenees around about the 15th of March, sometimes so much that we have had to close the resorts due to avalanche risk. However this year it has been way too warm. The main February holidays there were massive dumps, but immediately followed by warm sunny weather (great for the holiday makers), and this theme has continued into March with probably only one or two days of cold (ish) weather which was enough for 30cm of snow a week or so ago, but then once again warm sunny weather.

Normally we have an abundance of snow towards the end of the season but this year is certainly not the case.

Hopefully we will have some more of the fresh stuff before the season ends LOL

Sad Sad Sad
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Stella!

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-stella-northeast-blizzard-warning-noreaster-snow-forecast-march-2017

New England States are getting hammered at the moment. Should be good in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. Anywhere from 20-50cm of snow for those lucky enough to get it.
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@Griggs, outlook is 30-50cm over next 10 days. Yes some precipitation will come to the Dolomites, but it will be warm. So higher FLs....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Bergfex showing some snow this weekend for 3 valleys but not a jot on Snow forecast. Do they use different models?
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@bamberd Snowforecast.com = GFS core
Bergfex = EC
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You know it makes sense.
Cheers Jellybeans1000. I suppose the next question is, which is the more reliable?
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Many thanks Jellybeans1000. Fingers crossed the forecasted snow falls over the next week or so. Looks like Madonna di Campiglio's snow is holding up at the moment but a top up would be welcome. Gather the piste maintenance there is second to none so sure it will be alright.
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On The Snow with Noelle - March 14, 2017 from Sugarloaf
https://vimeo.com/208367410

Talked with the in-laws in Connecticut last night. 20" of powder in the driveway. Most ski areas in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine saw 2 feet of powder.
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@bamberd EC all the way.
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Mmm... looking very warm for the alps Shocked
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As is often the case in spring warm temperatures and sun potentially followed by some cooler temperatures, from around 23 March if GFS is right. Snowfall this weekend looks like having a relatively high snow line.

Over the next week snowfall could be quite high, but some of those op runs (see above) look a little frothy.



Still there's gonna be good times...


http://youtube.com/v/IkUKFdacHvo
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@bamberd, ECM is more reliable over time, but that does not mean it is always right and GFS wrong.
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Always thanks to those who contribute on here.
Off to Tignes Saturday for the week and hoping the weather will be warm and sunny. Forecast on SCGB looks nuts with the amount of snow due.
Any idea what the potential forecast might be appreciating a week out anything could change.

Thanks
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A lot rain coming to the Alps in the next week or so.
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@Whitegold, For the lower resorts yes, for the higher resorts it will be snow

@Jerby, Detailed forecast on the Tignes thread, I won't clutter 'this place' with it. However, we still are unsure what is going to happen on Saturday (other than the raising of the rainbow flag).
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On the maddest road trip eva. Uk to Zell am See for three days ski. Will any of that dampness be fluffy white stuff Sat / Sun?
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Temps are ridiculous.

It has been 10-15c at ~2000m in some parts today.
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