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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
nozawaonsen wrote:


Within that there are four or five days of slightly milder weather coming and the snowline could be relatively (though not massively) high before more cold weather sets in again. Winds still quite strong in the west.



Forecast snowline for Salzburg region on Thursday is 1200 to 1400 metres. Hope it drops before then as theres quite a bit of precipitation forecast that day!!
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1200 to 1400 metres for Salsburg, jimmybog?
Hah!
I see your piddly 1200 to 1400 metres, and raise you 2100 to 2400 metres for La Plagne!
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Tomz looks horrendous. 2 or 3 inches of rain and 2000m freezing level.

Heavy rain for Sunday as well but lower FL.

Hope the pistes don't get too damaged. Still a metre plus of packed artificial in most places so they should be OK.
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Had a decent dusting of snow on the South Island NZ hills last night Very Happy
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Snowing heavily (albeit very wet) around town (1100m). Nice surprise when rain was predicted.

Freezing level about where predicted but snow level much lower. -1c at 2300m +1 at 1100m. Temperature gradient much shallower than usual?
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snowheads68 wrote:
Spoiler
Snowing heavily (albeit very wet) around town (1100m). Nice surprise when rain was predicted.

Freezing level about where predicted but snow level much lower. -1c at 2300m +1 at 1100m. Temperature gradient much shallower than usual
?


Where are we talking about? Smile
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snowheads68 wrote:
Spoiler
Snowing heavily (albeit very wet) around town (1100m). Nice surprise when rain was predicted.

Freezing level about where predicted but snow level much lower. -1c at 2300m +1 at 1100m. Temperature gradient much shallower than usual
?


Where are we talking about? Smile
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Bad Gastein
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A useful corrective against some of the spurious claims of long term forecasts appearing in the UK press.

https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2017/03/08/what-weather-can-we-expect-for-easter-and-may/
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Lots of snow and chaos on the roads in Kühtai this morning - audies and taxis slipping everywhere and crashing into things...

This little beauty skipped through it all like a mountain goat with a smug smile on its face though wink

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I've been following the GFS ensembles and ECM for the northern Alps side of Switzerland for the last ten days or so. Both, for some time, predicted snow and cold for 12 to 15 March but both now suggest sun, cloud and mild air. I realise that far out 'FI' forecasts are inaccurate but it has brought home to me just how much things can change.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@pjd, page one, post one.
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Yep, seems often the way that every time I refresh the precipitation line for FI gets flatter and flatter!

Still, no matter what happens in the next week and a half now the snow should be fine with what's come in the last week
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Yes, Alberg forecast for next week (when I'm there) went from big snow to sun and some rain. Chances that could swing back toward snow, at least by the end of next week?
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@nozawaonsen, yep, wise words for which my recent example seems a paradigm (although it might change back I suppose!)
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@pjd, it's spring, all weather forecasts can get less reliable in Spring.

But then again GFS actually tanked. So 5 day forecasts in the current period aren't very accurate.


One of the many reasons to use EC over GFS.
So simply pointed it to "Fantasy Island" is misinformed. This is one of many reasons of accuracy failure.
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@SkiG, @ArlbergMeister, the above probably applies to you too. Charts will swing because we are in GFS's tanking period. Wait for a couple of days and forecasts should come back to normal, whatever that is.
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@Jellybeans1000, thanks. If I've understood your post correctly then we should place a lot more store in the long range forecasts of ECM than GFS?
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pjd wrote:
@Jellybeans1000, thanks. If I've understood your post correctly then we should place a lot more store in the long range forecasts of ECM than GFS?

Edit : or is Spring a particularly bad time for GFS?
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@pjd EPS Control > Long range GFS
EC Monthly > CFS

Spring and Autumn are less predictable than Winter and Summer in all weather models.
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@Jellybeans1000, So this means it will dump next week, right?!

Also, how's the apres-ski forecast looking?

All inane jesting aside, thanks for the intel and insights -- very helpful!
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^ yes thanks in particular to @Jellybeans1000, and @nozawaonsen for the time they have taken to post their information and views.
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@Jellybeans1000, oh come on. Earlier you were saying this winter was peculiarly bad for long term forecasts. Now it is spring and autumn. Long term forecasts are by their nature unreliable.
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Mt Etna, Sicily, Italy, seeing some excellent skiing conditions for the time of the year.

Currently, the only place on Earth where you catch a lift and ski on snow and volcano lava.

This was taken a few days ago near the summit of the ski area.

Photo of the season.

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@ArlbergMeister Maybe. Après is on though!
@Whitegold That looks so awesome!
@nozawaonsen By their nature? They change predictability, depending on what you are predicting, how many models you are basing your thoughts on, location and the time of year. Long term forecasts are certainly not black and white, they come in different shades of accuracy. Basing Long Term Forecasts on the last run of GFS, will obviously yield unreliable results.

There is a reason EC long term and seasonal forecasts cost hundreds of thousands of pounds to access direct from EC.

And Spring and Autumn are slightly less accurate than Winter and Summer.

Final word on that matter. I think everyone knows my opinion on the matter, please take it to PMs if you wish to continue. I'm sure we can have an interesting discussion on that.
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@Jellybeans1000, actually I'm not so keen on PMs when it's a topic of broader interest. But I suspect we probably agree as much as disagree.

@pjd, said he had been looking at the GFS ensembles to which you replied "all" forecasts get less predictable in spring. My point (which I think you share) is that actually GFS output beyond the short to medium term (I'd say seven days but that's a bit arbitrary) is almost always unreliable (as opposed to, well reliable) as a result of the fairly unpredictable nature of weather. You might get a trend in longer term output (from any model) if it is signposted well enough and you are looking at output over a long time, but even then beyond seven days it is hard to take it that seriously (and in extended blocking patterns you may have more confidence in the longer term, though this can easily catch you out when it comes to the breakdown). And that's the same in winter, spring, summer or autumn (albeit there may be marginal shifts as we get to more violent times of year).

The EC30 is an interesting model and of the longer term models I agree it is better than others, but it still struggles (and this winter has had a pretty miserable time).

Long term forecasting is certainly interesting and entertaining, but comes with some pretty heavy caveats about reliability (hence my points at the top of the thread). And some people (such as those the Express is fond of quoting, or certain relatives of senior British politicians, or amusing if bullish American cold ramping sports fans) tend to over claim the potential to make long term forecasts.
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@nozawaonsen, I agree with most of what you said.

GFS output is unreliable beyond 7 days.
Marginal shifts happen at more violent times of the year.
EC Monthly is an awesome model and is the closest thing we have to a good long term weather model (I am guessing you have it?)
And yes it is very interesting and entertaining
And yes it has caveats
The Express? Some UK Media agency?
American sports fans? I didn't know they talked about the forecasts at all wink

Really only one thing I don't agree with.
"Fairly unpredictable nature of weather". I guess we will have to wait for a couple of decades to find that one out...
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Obviously the Avalanche risk is pretty high in many places and critical in parts of Austria. So. Think.


http://youtube.com/v/Vet6AHmq3_s

Meantime Spring is on its way with plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures to enjoy.
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Gah, what does this warm spell mean? Is this (the warm temperatures in the forecasts) normal in march? Will there be any good snow left for me in 3v one week from now?
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@staffsan Warm temperatures are normal in March, but if there's a good cover at 3v now, you should fine. Poor cover now and I might be worried.


Most areas less than 5cm in the next 10 days. Ensembles give some hope for long term snow, but wait these out...
It is getting warmer, but as a backcountry loving guy I would be happy to get out there in some sunshine and corn. Too bad I'm in boring Melbourne Sad Just enjoy it guys!
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 Poster: A snowHead
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staffsan wrote:
Gah, what does this warm spell mean? Is this (the warm temperatures in the forecasts) normal in march? Will there be any good snow left for me in 3v one week from now?


It means lovely skiing in the sun Smile There will be snow left for you in the 3V one week from now.
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My pre vacation fantasy forecast chasing is now coming to an end.... It's been a really great ride this time, watching huge forecast snow come from long (-9days) to medium to short term and then delightfully to actual precipitation.

It was all looking too good to come (fully) true though, with another -1/2m due this Sunday, for our 1st day, to provide a very generous final powder blanket and set us up for an epic week. Thursday also had another 1/2 m forecast. Unfortunately all this forecast lovely has now disappeared,from the charts, so right now I'm feeling like a child after a sugar crash Smile)

Anyway skiing 4 day old powder is better than trying to ski no powder at all I guess. It all looked so much better though...., the tragedy, the tragedy of it all Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad

Come on ye snow Gods give us some more snow for Paddies day.... Little Angel
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horgand, you are Victor Meldrew in real life and i claim my £5.
There is snow on the ground (lots of it), the winds have calmed down, the sun is out, warm enough to sit outside in comfort - more than enough, surely.
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I really loved Victor Mildew, so much so he must have become a sub-conscious role model for me in my now approaching middle age Wink))

Today I feel a bit like him at his most incredulous when I open the latest forecasts I.e.


http://youtube.com/v/mLNrLI3OBwg Crying or Very sad
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@horgand, you're only "approaching middle age"? Golly. Who'd have guessed? wink
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pam w wrote:
@horgand, you're only "approaching middle age"? Golly. Who'd have guessed? wink


Behave Blush
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Interesting day...

New snow was VERY wet and heavy in Ischgl. Level 4. Avalanches everywhere - natural and triggered - on all aspects.

*Very carefully* skied some mellow trees early on in the day. Paavo almost makes it look like powder:



Stopped around 10:30/11 and cruised the pistes instead, due to further warming and other people.

Seriously on a lv. 4 day: "Is it steep? We just followed your tracks." Crazy.

All sorts of other crazy going on too. Fools without any safety kit group skiing steep slopes right between very big and obvious avalanches with deep crowns and terrain traps/pistes below.

One example, but it was going on everywhere:



Is this just stupidity, or sheer ignorance? Surely it must be obvious even to total non-skiers that that slope is dangerous?

Starting to think we should introduce a fine of €1000 for anyone who skis offpiste without safety kit. At least that might actually make people start thinking.

Course it would help if resorts would do a bit more to make people aware - even a simple Facebook post each day would make a big difference. Today Ischgl stated they were 'closed for security work.' Why not just be up front that actually it's super dangerous and we're bombing the poo-poo out of everything so you don't die?
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Since ive only ever skied during real winter, what do you guys mean with spring conditions? Is it a good thing?

I feel super discouraged over the latest VT forecasts with high temps and freezing points over 3000m next week!

Im imagining wet pools all over the place, unskiable pistes and wet heavy or icy snow everywhere. Please say thats not what springlike conditions are like?
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staffsan wrote:
Please say thats not what springlike conditions are like?


That's not what Spring conditions are like
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@staffsan Spring is warmer than Winter, limited snow falls, and you get lots of sunshine. The snow becomes corn like, which is very forgiving if you are in the park or out in the backcountry on steep slopes. What you don't want is slush, or pools of melted water. They are easy to spot and avoid though. Enjoy the spring corn, it's the second best thing behind powder snow.
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