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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Snowing in Saalbach
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Just back from first true Spring Tour of the season with some nice corn Cool

Looks like rain currently for Morzine next Friday Sad
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Weathercam wrote:
Just back from first true Spring Tour of the season with some nice corn Cool

Looks like rain currently for Morzine next Friday Sad


Never mind next Friday. It's pouring today
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@Weathercam, not to mention Saturday and possibly Sunday. Sad
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I thought it was meant to be snowing not raining next week Sad
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Weathercam wrote:
"So why is he taking us to feckin Morzine then"


>Because you're not going to be skinning around the shops, you'll be up on the hill, i.e. higher than Morzine?

Edit: that said, the latest GFS has changed it's mind and put FL up a few hundred metres.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@snoozeboy, take a look at the FL's

That said I'm leaving the dogs and OH in Morzine whilst I meet up with a guide and a mate in Chamonix for the Sunday and Monday Cool

Edit: aaaahhhh you spotted it
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@Weathercam, Yes pity, latest GFS run made a huge swing on FLs and also a fair amount of agreement between the runs. Clutching at straws, it's still far enough in the future to swing back.

Regarding your first spring tour, I did my first tour of the season yesterday, to the Col de Lys near Les Paccots (FR-CH). Beautiful weather and good snow cover for the altitude, as the area is mostly shaded. Snow was like concrete though. Spring snow in places, interspersed with deep cement, with little warning which was which. Almost harder to ski down than it was to climb up.
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GFS does seem to have backed off from a cold snowy next weekend but ECM still sticking to it.



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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Snowing in Flachau at the moment.

Still plenty of time for GFS to shift back towards colder weather or indeed Head in The other direction.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
So the MJO Phase 8/1, as well as the polar vortex forecast ended up to do nothing Sad

Just something Jellybeans1000 posted on the last page


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Fri 17-02-17 20:43; edited 2 times in total
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Chris Brookes, not too sure what you are talking about?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Chris Brookes, Very Happy Toofy Grin
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Chris Brookes Not necessarily. Vortex forecast is still there and MJO is weakening now, but has a delay of impact by about a week.

But you are kind of right. The forecast for the last week of February has gone from dumps to a couple of light falls (That's GFS for you). And the temps are not very good either.

But an SSW has been predicted for March and that is good for European snow. But remember we are now in Spring folks.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Europe and UK are unbelievably warm right now for the time of year.

Expect to see some European resorts closing early in the next 2 to 4 weeks.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
.......and then reopening again when we get the snowiest April on record Madeye-Smiley
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just been for a late night walk through Saalbach and am pleased to report that it was properly snowing (after light snow at village level throughout the day), and the streets are white over. Nice to see, although we must wait to see how much has fallen overnight and higher up.
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@Chris Brookes,
Stop worrying, it's fine Very Happy
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Snowing lightly in town in Flachau (950m), Ski Amade this morning.

@Chris Brookes, beyond seven days in unreliable.

@Jellybeans1000, an SSW is not automatically good for European snow. It depends very much on the nature of the SSW and the manner in which it disrupts the polar vortex. It can certainly bring colder than average weather, but it's not guaranteed.
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Cold spell at end of next week still looks likely.

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Cold spell at end of next week still looks likely.

GFS still predicting a warmer, less snowy scenario.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
We'll know what's going on when we look out of the window next Friday.
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GFS 12z goes below average and snowy at the end of the week and into Saturday for the northern Alps.



Fun to have some fresh snow to play in today.
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GFS seems to have come back on board the snow train for next weekend.

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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
GFS and ECM differ again for next weekend.



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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Damn, I woke up to a prediction of heavy snow on Friday, now an hour later its saying light rain Sad

C'mon snow
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Weather forecast showing a dusting of snow tonight, followed by 10cm+ on Tuesday and 20cm+ on Friday for eastern Austrian Alps! Sweet!!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@snowheads68, I notice you're using the GFS control in the above charts. The Op run is higher res of course. I use the GEFS mean and control to see if the Op is an outlier.

ECM still pretty much on it's own for Sat 25th. And even then, the ECM Op is an outlier in terms of lower pressure and temps compared to the ECM ensembles.
GFS and GEM Op runs are in line with their ensembles, suggesting only Thurs night / Friday drop in pressure, with temps dropping very briefly.
UKMO also in the GFS camp.

So still mixed signals and a short window of opportunity. But odds right now favour the east (colder and snowier). Further out, as usual, lots of potential showing up in early March. Which would fit neatly with this winters pattern of once a month dumps.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
so not good news for next weekend Sad
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead


GFS12z ensembles pretty clear on a cold snap at the end of the week.

Snow for the northern Alps, more so in Switzerland and Austria.



The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees



Cold start this morning in Ski Amade though warming up in the sunshine. Very pleasant.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I'm liking the Scottish snow dream from those.....
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looks like a bit of fresh for Obergurgl on Fri / Sat Very Happy
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Ooooo... maybe a bit of fresh stuff around Sestriere just in time for my arrival on the 26th Cool
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Suggestion from Morris of 30 - 50cm this Friday followed quickly by warmer temps on Saturday

I have bad memories of a flying visit to Les Menuires last year for 30cm plus followed immediately by rain to almost 3000m. Would rather not repeat.

So do I head off this Friday to ski Sat, Sun and Mon, or wait a bit and see if I get better conditions? Could also go Monday to ski Tues, Wed, Thurs and another front due to come in apparently
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8611, suggest you toss a coin.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Well the prediction of snow for Les Arcs on Friday has completely disappeared Sad At least on Snow-Forecast (which I think uses GFS but I could be wrong). Bit disappointing but oh well... I'll be with someone who isn't good enough for any off-piste anyway, so it's not like it changes much.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen wrote:

GFS12z ensembles pretty clear on a cold snap at the end of the week.


Does it count as a cold snap when it's just dipping to the average?
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@alr1970, yep. Short but sweet and fine sunshine to follow. Life is good.





Looks strong near Salzburg...
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Raining heavily today across Austria, up to roughly 1800-2000m.
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