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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@skiberg, not with any confidence and that word is the crucial part.

If you looks a few pages back some were casting out into long term forecasts (about two weeks out) and suggesting that they showed cold and snowfall in the Alps 13-16 February. But in my view this was simply too far out to take seriously. In the end it was not just the detail that was absent, it wasn't even remotely accurate. High pressure sunshine and mild temperatures are much more likely for that time period.

You do sometimes see trends but they only start to come into focus in the seven to ten day period. At that stage they build confidence or they don't. And often don't.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
So then where are the ensembles...



For the Alps next week looks settled, warm and sunny. A chance to look chic in shades. Could be some stormy weather headed for the Pyrenees.

Heading into the last week of the month some hints (and nothing more) of colder and more unsettled weather for the Alps and Scotland.

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees



Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sat 11-02-17 13:24; edited 1 time in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Good photo from Mike_Pow in Japan, worthy of a wider audience.

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@skiberg, no because if all those models are based on a high pressure evolving it can completely change is a low pressure then pushes through quicker than expected, or vice versa. I'm a complete amateur but even the UK weather forecasts can massively swing from noon til the evening depending on how quickly a weather front is moving. Often you here them say things like "we are not sure how far north this will push even at this late stage"
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It's colder here in Zurich this afternoon than for much of my time in Saalbach last week Shocked

Guess who was silly and went out sightseeing without a jacket or beanie Very Happy
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Snow here... Southampton though...
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@skiberg Yep, only general trends can be found in extended forecasts. Climate drivers are the things most people look for and then they go on climatology. It won't happen every time, but it's a better forecast than having a look at the temperatures 20 days away.
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Nice shot by the OH on her first guided tour last Friday, above the Chamossiere, about to drop into Morzine.



Models not offering a lot of clues for the next dump, need that Azores high to stop feeding into Europe
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A dump is possible at the end of the GFS run. 18/19 Feb looks colder than the rest of the forecast run. GEFS and GEPS aren't so clear on this, persisting warm temperature anomalies until the end of the run.
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Big melt coming to lower slopes in the Alps next week.

Spring has arrived.
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@langball, nice photo.

Eastern Austria today hard packed pistes were in good shape. Off piste chalky to begin with, first hints of corn snow later in day, but will need a couple more melt freeze cycles.

This looks likely as there will be plenty of pleasant, mild, sunny weather in the week to come. Possibility of some snowfall next Sunday (19 Feb), but too early to tell.

Beyond that there is a trend towards further milder weather, but at the same time there are lots of different options bouncing around so time will tell.

Meanwhile this week represents an opportunity to look effortlessly cool and chic. So work it.

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
West Coast getting set for round 8,9,...10? I don't know? I've lost track of the storm cycles. They are talking about Mammoth hitting 500" for the season before the end of February. I've been traveling to the Bay Area for work the past few months, and every time I'm down there, they seem to get hammered. The ground is super saturated, and there's so much moisture the reservoirs are at their breaking points. Roads flooding out, mudslides. Cali folks are getting tired of all the rain. Meanwhile all that precip at Sea Level equals massive amounts of what us humans call snow at higher elevations. Lots and lots of snow. Maybe 50" avg for the week, with the next storm cycle to come through the Sierra's.

Looks like PNW will get a taste of precip later in the week too, with Friday, through USA President's Day Holiday looking to bring several storms spinning off the Pacific into the Sierra's and making their way to Utah and CO. Looks like Taos could get in on things along with the San Juan's in SW CO.

Still a bit to early to know for sure how the storms will shape up, and where will be the winner in the Snow total accumulation. But looks likely that there will be snow for a large swath of Ski Resorts from BC (Whistler), all the way South to Mammoth, and across the Wasatch, Rockies, Idaho, Wyoming.

FI is also showing storm potential through the end of the month.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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@Toadman, I was reading an article on Lake Oroville north of Sacramento. Huge sinkhole has opened up on the overflow to the dam meaning they can't use the overflow any longer. The authorities are facing a huge potential disaster and this round of storm isn't going to help the cause.

Since I've been to mammoth, and the Tahoe resorts in the summer of 2014 I've been keeping a close eye on their seasons etc. The snowfall they have received is phenomenal, and mammoth will surely be skiing well into June this year. I can't see the Tioga Pass into Yosemite opening early this year that's for sure!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Well I can confer never experienced warmer weather at this time of year, glorious sunshine & empty pistes here in Bad Hofgastienit's 0 degrees now @ 21.54hrs.
The pistes were in great condition today & the forecast is more of the same this week.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
@Toadmanmammoth will surely be skiing well into June this year. I can't see the Tioga Pass into Yosemite opening early this year that's for sure!


Planning on being open for 4th July!

http://www.latimes.com/travel/la-tr-mammoth-mountain-july-fourth-20170211-story.html
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/weather/foehn-and-bise/foehn.html

Still a fairly strong fohn forecast for the next couple of days.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I'm not really enjoying all this talk of the temps rising and possible precipitation coming in next week. Yet i am refreshing this thread repeatedly. I feel like an addict!

We are off to the northern french alps (morillon) on Friday. Are we just going to spend a week getting soaked? Puzzled
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Whitegold wrote:
Big melt coming to lower slopes in the Alps next week.

Spring has arrived.


Seriously....give it a rest... rolling eyes
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GEFS is going for above average temperatures through to +384 hours except 18/19 Feb which is about average.
GEPS is even warmer.

As far as snow oppurtunity, on GFS.

17-19 Feb has some snow to the North East Alps, best up high.

And from the 25th to at least the 1st March, shows a barrage of lows coming across the Alps from the North, showing a very cold airmass come though from the 25th with heavy snowfall particularly to the Northern Alps.
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zzz wrote:
http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/weather/foehn-and-bise/foehn.html

Still a fairly strong fohn forecast for the next couple of days.


That only shows a brief relatively weak Föhn overnight Monday into Tuesday.
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So fingers (and everything that can be X) the 25th onwards hopefully will be good?!?!
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@Chris Brookes, no idea.
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MCHP wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Big melt coming to lower slopes in the Alps next week.

Spring has arrived.


Seriously....give it a rest... rolling eyes


The more you reply, unfortunately the more he won't give it a rest.
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Nelbert75 wrote:
MCHP wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Big melt coming to lower slopes in the Alps next week.

Spring has arrived.


Seriously....give it a rest... rolling eyes


The more you reply, unfortunately the more he won't give it a rest.


True...
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As predicted, very warm in the Alps today.

Approaching 10c in Lech, Austria, at lunchtime.
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Whilst touring today we were talking about the tragic avalanche on Sat very close to where we were, and what with my little incident last week, (at the time we were unaware of today's avalanche in Tignes), along with the obvious heavy melt going on lower down, I mentioned how I'd actually welcome Spring conditions which are a damn site safer when off piste than the lottery that's out there currently.

Not that "CockGold" would have the faintest idea as to what I'm going on about rolling eyes
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Just told the boys that they need to do a snow dance and start praying.....Megeve on the first weekend in march after a warm spell isn't going to be pretty.....let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Out into FI GFS has been hinting for a while at a more unsettled cold and snowy end to February and does again in tonight's 12z.



Will it happen? At this stage it's too early to tell, but worth keeping an eye on.

Meanwhile this is how snowfall currently looks for the coming week.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Jackson Home reopened today after being closed for several days following a power outage along with unsafe conditions from heavy snowfall.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Waves of storms from Thursday/Friday into end of February still showing up on the ensemble reports for the USA West Coast. First waves a bit on the weaker side and a bit warmish, and then cooling.

Cali getting a bit of a breather before getting dunked again.

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-live-updates-oroville-dam-view-from-1487016427-htmlstory.html#

http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/gfsx-10-day-forecast.htm
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Toadman Next week shouldn't be that intense for the Western USA. The East Coast is where the best storms will be, thanks to MJO Phase 8.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
18z GFS has a cold and snowy last week of February.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, Bergfex are forecasting strong winds for early part of next week across the NW Alps, are you seeing this in the charts you're looking at? Thanks
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@franga just a tip, bergfex = EC. GFS will possibly have a different outcome and so will GEFS and GEPS.
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I know, thanks @Jellybeans1000. Was wondering if there was any concensus on different models ...
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@franga, can't see that when I looked just now.

06z still showing colder and more unsettled weather with snow in last week of February.
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Half term, next week, Aosta valley, J2SKI says cold and snowy, GFS warm , any ideas ??
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@bruisedskier, J2Ski uses GFS forecasts but updates only once or twice a day where as GFS runs 4 times per day. Check J2Ski later on this evening and it will be different.
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@AthersT, Thanks.
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@bruisedskier, there's nowt you can do about it either way!! worst case you'll have a lovely ski holiday perhaps with a nice cold beer on a sunny terrace at the end of the day !
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