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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Damn - as ever and closer you get.........

Snow predictions for Limone Piemonte reduced by around 50% and Queyras around 75%

Still think it will be worth a road trip and maybe best that it's now a lot less as could have been too much with the original forecasts.

Mates are finding good snow, but think today they are resorting to heli's rolling eyes
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
FL for the NW Alps looks high next weekend (accompanied by precipitation) - I'm sure noza will correct me but that's how I'm interpreting it. Time for it to change of course.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@franga, does FL stands for freezing level?
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Quote:

Mates are finding good snow, but think today they are resorting to heli's

It's a sair fecht.
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pieman666 wrote:
@franga, does FL stands for freezing level?
yes
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@Jellybeans1000, Thank you! some very useful stuff there
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@albob, thanks
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!

So EC shows 29th-31st in the warmer flank of the storm, no FLs yet.
GFS doesn't show as much moisture.
Two seperate bands of precipitation on 29th and 30th. In the warmer flank, so snow only higher up.
29th Jan

30th Jan

Not much on GFS after that...

Interesting Mediterrenean low on the 5th Feb on EPS

Spotty falls on GFS in same time period.


Sorry for the long post but...
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Jellybeans1000 wrote:

Sorry for the long post but...


Don't apologise...long is good...nice view of the various scenarios...liking the ECM Med Low on 5th Feb...let us know if & when it firms up into something we can start to believe in!! snowHead
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@Jellybeans1000, Who do I have to pay to tilt that lows trajectory a bit? wink
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robboj wrote:
@Jellybeans1000, Who do I have to pay to tilt that lows trajectory a bit? wink


All contributions to the Luigi Ski Benevolent Fund gratefully received, I'll put in a good word at the Vatican and see what can be done! Now the Cardinals have an overabundance of the white stuff on the mountains near Rome, I'm sure they can spare some for elsewhere! Laughing
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Snow in the Sahara today

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Rain currently predicted for my first couple of ski days for the trip (Saalbach). Mad

At least it's still a week away so still plenty of time for freeze level to change or the moisture to disappear.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Same here but down the road in St Anton Sad
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
The good news is the rain has now disappeared from the forecast but the freeze line remains high and no fresh snow. Still, there are worse things in the world than sunny ski days in Saalbach snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Dare I say, nothing is better than rain.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
Dare I say, nothing is better than rain.


Much.

Nothing worse than rain on your first ski day of the trip. Especially when you've travelled halfway around the world to get there. One of my worst days was trying to ski with a nasty virus with warm temps and heavy rain to the top of the mountain in Hakuba, Japan. This was late January. Just goes to show, you're not safe anywhere Toofy Grin
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The locals always say that a bit of rain isn't a bad thing - to consolidate the pistes. We often get some drizzly rain early in the season - around Xmas - but it's a rarity in the middle of the season.
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The GFS ensembles for 47N13E (i.e. Saalbach & ZamS) have been edging higher from the reliable cusp onwards for a more than week now but keep dropping into seasonal average as we get close. Personally I would love it colder but as opposed to warm then long may that continue.

@Jellybeans1000, @Nozawaonsen What does it mean when there is a break in the operational line as there has been in FI for these coordinates for days now? Is it some kind of data fault or interruption?
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Locals in Verbier saying February 10-12 is when we can expect some snow to arrive. no off-piste to speak of, itineraries are very rocky with huge moguls, and it doesn't look at all like it snowed quite a bit only a week ago.
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I want to know how they know that - Feb 10th is best part of three weeks away! Very Happy

Optimism is always a good thing though.
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Quote:


Locals in Verbier saying February 10-12 is when we can expect some snow to arrive. no off-piste to speak of, itineraries are very rocky with huge moguls, and it doesn't look at all like it snowed quite a bit only a week ago.


Is that based on weather changing on the Full Moon , its something I've noticed that locals in the Alps say when they have a poor season
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Jenniper, yeah, we had a group of guides in a restaurant sitting next to us so we asked, no idea what they base it on, but snow is definitely not coming very soon. Possibly the Full Moon thing. Overall the season seems to be a combination of a poor start that we had last 3 seasons and a long dry spell that we had in 2010/2011 Sad Pistes are very nice though and still some ski touring options at 3+ hours climb.
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Off to Mayrhofen in two days. I think any off piste options are going to be limited at best but the on piste should be lovely, and sunshine too. Certainly things are a lot better than it was looking a few weeks ago!
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@never summer, it's a complete guess on their part IMHO! Also loosely based around half term and perhaps encouraging folk to come and ski the busiest holiday time!
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Where does this winter rank historically as far as lack of snow?
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@kitenski, you might be correct. But as it was said above, in poor snow season they always hope for weather to change at full moon. And this season IS the poor snow season. I haven't seen off-piste that sketchy since I started skiing it 7 years ago, I saw rocks I had no idea existed. It just doesn't look like anything is coming very soon. If guides have nowhere to take clients it doesn't help them if people come, but they can always hope. It should snow again this season, but I doubt it is going to be a "game changer" now. No base at January 22. The snow that has fallen didn't really stick to the ground. And there are massive rocks everywhere that need a good meter to be covered.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Still early days. More than 3 months of the season to go.

Once it starts snowing it probably wont stop and we'll all be praying then for a return to sun and calm. snowHead
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Snowing heavy now down in Limone Piemonte according to mates there - hopefully will be at least 25cm - I should be there by 11:00 tomorrow Cool
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I've been following this thread for a while. Heading off for short break on 12th Feb so up until now I've assumed that all should be fine by then. We're flying in to Bergamo and have a hotel booked in Madesimo which can be cancelled. What I'm not sure of is, within 2 - 3 hours of Bergamo, which general area has the best snow now, given there is little likelihood of snow over the next week and who knows what could happen after that I have to soon decide if we go elsewhere and if so, where to?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Peter S, End of January, with snow levels that we currently have , is not "early days". Days are getting longer, sun is higher, it's warmer, so between now and whenever it snows again snow will be increasingly affected by this. If there was a remote prospect of cold and very unsettled February it would start showing on weather charts. A single storm won't change things beyond a few days once clouds clear. Would be good for pistes, but off-piste needs a meter of snow and this needs to stick too.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
a history of base snow levels back to '09 - not perfect but gives an idea how unlikely
good off-piste skiing is becoming this year in these parts. 2 more weeks of a forecast like this and....I do think there must be at least one or
two big storms to make some of the side-country fun though....gotta be!


http://www.onthesnow.com/valais/zermatt/historical-snowfall.html?&y=2017&q=base

Cervinia obviously a bit better but still...other than the recent 15 - 20 cms we got it hasnt snow since mid november in earnest.

Next year a I'm thinking a cheaper place just out of town and maybe a car rental and try and make some use of all the excellent intel on this site.
Very happy to have found it! Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Old Dog wrote:
I've been following this thread for a while. Heading off for short break on 12th Feb so up until now I've assumed that all should be fine by then. We're flying in to Bergamo and have a hotel booked in Madesimo which can be cancelled. What I'm not sure of is, within 2 - 3 hours of Bergamo, which general area has the best snow now, given there is little likelihood of snow over the next week and who knows what could happen after that I have to soon decide if we go elsewhere and if so, where to?

West from BGY is Sauze d'Oulx, decent natural snow,
North on the ss42, madonna-di-campiglio , area, including Folgardia. No recent snowfall, but excellent snowmaking
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Jet stream still looking like it's going to start barreling into Europe from the start of Feb, but this morning's GFS run is disappointing (still!).
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Quite a few avalanches reported around the Pinzgauer Valley this morning according to locals, didn't see a whole lot in the news apart from 2 deaths from snow-shoeing incident in Krimml (along a way marked path):

http://amountainjourney.com/avalanche-czech-snowshoers-2017/

I'll be sticking to the pistes until the next snowfall...
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2 weeks out from my trip to Austria (5th Feb) and im already starting to worry rolling eyes Will this low pressure sitting in the Atlantic ever make its way to the Alps Puzzled
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stef88 wrote:
2 weeks out from my trip to Austria (5th Feb) and im already starting to worry rolling eyes Will this low pressure sitting in the Atlantic ever make its way to the Alps Puzzled


Yes, it will. The day we have to leave to go home Toofy Grin
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Any news on when the high pressure will leave the alps ??
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@Chris Brookes,
2018
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@stef88, unless its off piste you're after then as long as it stays cold you'll be fine.
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