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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
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It's snowing in Geneva. That is all.
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Generally pretty cold outlook. On the back of a pretty cool spell anyway.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn06700_30.gif

The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees



After the coming bout of snow for the northern Alps and Pyrenees looks like a cold dry spell.

The south still generally dry albeit some snow should spill across into NW Italy.

The south is still beautiful however...


http://youtube.com/v/XS3YqLyqQec
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nozawaonsen wrote:

The south still generally dry albeit some snow should spill across into NW Italy.

The south is still beautiful however...



I'm seeing a low in the Adriatic on Friday on the Bergfex & BBC weather maps with heavy snow for Friuli/Slovenia/Croatia and something for the dry Dolomites, though it is competing with the general WNW Atlantic flow, any comments from the gurus??
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@luigi, yep should bring some, 10-20cm maybe at altitude. More to Slovenia and Croatia at present.

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@nozawaonsen, Thanks for that. I'm arriving in Geneva/Chamonix on 13 Jan. Does that little low over northern Italy mean that the wind and precipitation will be carried further west and south than the big low over Scandinavia would suggest?
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@nozawaonsen, good news for the Dolomites as these have experienced drought conditions for almost 2 months now. They've been doing marvels with artificial snow, but a 10-20cm snowfall will transform the look of the mountains, perhaps winter proper will finally arrive on Friday 13th!! snowHead
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Quite heavy snow in the Grenoble area, probably about 2cm/hour at the moment. If this keeps up all day there will be 15-20cm in the valleys by teatime (which will be in line with what I suggested last Friday).

In true Brit style I'm heading home at lunchtime, the Frenchies are disgusted. "Eeet is like Dunkirk, abandoning us" - they will stick it out to 6pm and sleep in their cars tonight.

Snowman time for the kidz.

// edit: snow easing off at noon, so that's around 3cm fallen here, so far.
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@davidof, trouble with you low altitude city dwellers you're just not use to a little bit of snow Toofy Grin

Just been speaking to my brother up near Voisant on the edge of the Chautreusse at 450m and 4cm there.

Here I'm tempted to go and do a "Vlog" just to show the difference between here in the Valley and up towards the Col du Lautaret with the weather.

I've also been looking at the latest run of synoptics charts and think you could describe the weather pattern as somewhat volatile - and it only takes a movement of 25mls to drastically affect accumulations.

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Weathercam wrote:
@davidof, trouble with you low altitude city dwellers you're just not use to a little bit of snow Toofy Grin


Well I'm not used to sleeping in the back of my car - which people seem to end up doing every year. So I prefer to avoid it.

Snow stopped now so panic over.
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Still snowing here on the other side of Grenoble (St. Egreve), though more lightly than earlier. Doesn't seem to be settling on the roads either. Will it be enough for the Vercors and Chartreuse resorts to open properly? I still haven't bothered to pick up my season pass yet...
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nozawaonsen wrote:


Chamonix





The scale on the right, I know equates roughly to cm of snow. But is that per hour, per day or some other scale? I'd guess a long hump of precipitation is better than a short spike, but any idea of the rate of the precipitation indicated on the scale?
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Chucking it down here in les Menuires. Fine snow all morning but now flakes are bigger and getting heavier!
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snoozeboy wrote:


The scale on the right, I know equates roughly to cm of snow. But is that per hour, per day or some other scale? I'd guess a long hump of precipitation is better than a short spike, but any idea of the rate of the precipitation indicated on the scale?


Funny you should ask that, I've just been trying to work that out myself (with little success!).
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You know it makes sense.
It's pretty much impossible with the naked eye as I believe it is the AREA under the line that gives the level of snow fall.
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AFAIK Precipitation is generally in mm of rainfall, but luckily a general rule of thumb is 1:10 ratio equating to cm of snowfall
Area under graph gives amount of snow over the period, but if you think of it as a number of (say) hourly bar graphs, each bar would be the amount to fall in that hour
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 Poster: A snowHead
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If you really really want to add up all the ppn forecast for each run and each individual ensemble member you can get them here (3 hour intervals):

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=563&y=417&run=6&ext=fr&mode=3&sort=0
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snoozeboy wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:


Chamonix





The scale on the right, I know equates roughly to cm of snow. But is that per hour, per day or some other scale? I'd guess a long hump of precipitation is better than a short spike, but any idea of the rate of the precipitation indicated on the scale?


I think its precipitation in mm per 6 hours but not 100% sure if its the rate or amount. Never really thought about it!. Just know that higher equates to heavier!!
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Looks like snow for the majority of the alps over the coming days. Chamonix village and Les Gets are looking real white. For all those due out this and next week could'nt have picked a better week Very Happy Very Happy
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Seemingly against recent trend bergfex have upped their forecast snow amounts for tmr / Friday in Slovenia and its snowing today ahead of their forecast arrival of snow tmr afternoon, which is all good. been used to seeing a prediction of snow 4-10 days out downgrade to nothing. Probably only me on here heading there in the next week or so, but I'm happy, as they missed out of the recent dumps that hit their neighbours in Austria and Italy.
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Wow can't believe the difference in the pictures from Les Gets compared to 4 or 5 days ago!!

Anyone know what's happening in Sainte Foy?? Can see it coming down in Les Arcs on the live cams, although much lighter than earlier...
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The latest squigglies for Champoluc show the GFS run giving large dumps of snow out in FI (and a pretty decent fall on 16th). This isn't supported by other scenarios so I realise is likely to be an anomaly, but is there anything in the pressure charts or elsewhere that suggests where this prediction is coming from? While it's unlikely to happen, I'm curious as to what's causing the GFS run to suggest it.

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Red Dave wrote:
Still snowing here on the other side of Grenoble (St. Egreve), though more lightly than earlier. Doesn't seem to be settling on the roads either. Will it be enough for the Vercors and Chartreuse resorts to open properly? I still haven't bothered to pick up my season pass yet...


No I don't think its going to be enough. Used my season pass 1 day, on the 11th November 2016 ! That'll learn me, as they say.

Meteo France's figures for the area (Isere mountains) are 5-10cm (a dusting they call it) today, 2cm through to Weds midnight. In the Haute-Savoie a total of 30cm to Wednesday midnight.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Tue 10-01-17 16:07; edited 1 time in total
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Live "Vlog" from Serre Chevalier Toofy Grin


http://youtube.com/v/eYmZpuyYyiA
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@Weathercam, Very Happy Very Happy
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@Weathercam,
Great Vlog BUT wrong coloured Helmet for those conditions!!!!!. Fingers crossed as we are travelling to Les Deux Alpes on Friday
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harrymac wrote:
For all those due out this and next week could'nt have picked a better week Very Happy Very Happy
Might be a bit of a stretch to say that, although things should be much improved by the weekend from the very poor conditions that the western end of the Alps have had so far this season. Forecast through to the weekend looks hopeful for some places, and fingers crossed that beyond that it will remain unsettled as lots more snow is needed to bring us to the situation where we can say we couldn't have picked a better week.
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@rob@rar, itl certainly be better than previous weeks for sure.!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Well it looks better for the south in the 15 day forecast. Thanks to a low coming in the next 4 days with about 5-15cm. The Northern Alps are looking much better with higher places getting more than 100cm.
100cm+ to parts of the Pyrenees, Southern Norway and the Southern Balkans. Snow in Northern Algeria too that is interesting, as well as snow in Central Italy.
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Fine day in Ischgl but clouds were appearing to NW at dusk though Bergfex have no snow forecast until tomorrow eve.

Been pretty cold so snow in very good condition, but even colder forecast next week!

(I'm assuming without looking Zell lake well and truly frozen)
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

This is the CFS precip anomaly for this week.

Then 2 weeks on.

You notice that there's abundant precip in the first image for the northern alps
And then, a higher precip anomaly to the Western Alps two weeks on. I'm not implying 100% accuracy, but a possible picture of what looks likely to happen at the moment in several weeks time. And it's also CFS.....


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Tue 10-01-17 21:05; edited 2 times in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
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12z GFS for 09 January just out (chart above is from 07 January).



Good spread of snowfall for next week across northern side of the Alps east to west. Some will spill south especially NW corner of Italy. Also fresh cover for Pyrenees and Slovenia.

After that a stretch of cold and dry weather looks likely.
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Whitegold wrote:
Snow is coming to the Alps in the second week of January.



As predicted, 2 weeks ago snowHead
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
It was Switzerland's driest December for 150 years.

Geneva was drier than the Sahara Desert for several weeks.

The Haute-Savoie saw its driest December for 135 years.

Some parts of the Northern Alps have gone 50 days straight without snow.

France's drought means the snow cannons may be turned off next week...

http://www.planetski.eu/news/8634

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Mammoth, California, got 6ft of snow in 2 days last week... The same as some low Austrian resorts get in an entire year...

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nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS for 09 January just out (chart above is from 07 January).

If that is about my post, it uses data from 7-10 Jan, 48 runs as an anomaly. And I think you mean 10 January 12z GFS.

As most say, use all available experts here. We are all here to help Very Happy
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@Jellybeans1000, fair point clearly living in the past. Still the 12z GFS op run for 10 (!) Jan was a bit more promising for the western end of the Alps.

12z ECM has some interesting low pressure in the Mediterranean though this chart itself feels a little unlikely to me.

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@Whitegold, https://www.facebook.com/sean.marsh.509/posts/10154058166472077
schladming....a "low" austrian resort.....pistes are awesome.....the off piste yesterday was above waist through the trees....I come here a lot have a season pass....always been great.....they do pretty good for a "low" resort
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@seany1, he's trolling in a rather sad way.
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Whitegold wrote:
Mammoth, California, got 6ft of snow in 2 days last week... The same as some low Austrian resorts get in an entire year...



Just returned from California. Couldn't partake in any of the goodness. High winds closed lifts Tuesday. Avalanche controls closed after the big snow on Wednesday. With another big storm coming in, we were unsure if we could make it out of the mountains on time.

So, after 2 days of hanging out in Reno, made a dash during the weather break, while others hit the slopes. Things opened around noon on Thursday, and Friday it was packed, Saturday the next storm of the Pinneapple express rolled in. Sunday we flew home. It was Thursday we made our mad dash over Donner's pass....

Bought the Mountain Collective pass, so I still have my 2 days at Squaw, Mammoth, and Whistler, Sun Valley, Jackson Hole.... probably another trip back to the states is in order.

That said... we had a fabulous 12 days at the Cliff Lodge in Snowbird.... will post a trip report.. no regrets. Can recommend a hot tub on your balcony overlooking the pistes Laughing
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Whitegold wrote:
Mammoth, California, got 6ft of snow in 2 days last week... The same as some low Austrian resorts get in an entire year...



Yes, but what you forgot to mention is the other 6 feet of snow they are getting right now...

Currently in Oakland, CA where as the Brits like to say, "it's pissing down rain right now." wink
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