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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@horizon, piste conditions are good at Stubai, but only about half the area is open - there's a lot less snow right than either time we skied there together. So I'd probably go to Hintertux, but I haven't been up there so I'm guessing...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Thanks guys! Most likely heading to Hintertux but waiting to book the room until tomorrow morning to see where tonight's snow has fallen.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Don't know if this has already been posted. Thought I recalled some discussion already on the Polar Vortex shifting but, still interesting to see if this ends up being the case this winter.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/

The polar vortex in recent years has brought the kind of miserable cold to northern states that made it hard to breathe outside. We’re probably in for more of the same.
That’s the finding of a new study published yesterday in the journal Nature that finds that as the Arctic warms, it is shifting the polar vortex to Europe. That in turn will bring more bursts of frigid cold to North America.
Those temperature drops could lead to miserable days in February and March, the research finds. Conversely, those drops in temperature could offset some of global warming’s effect in those regions, said Martyn Chipperfield, professor of atmospheric chemistry at the University of Leeds and a co-author of the paper.

The polar vortex has actually “shifted persistently” away from North America and into Europe and Asia over the last 30 years, researchers found. That results in cooling over North America but warmer winters in Europe.
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12z GFS has colder than average temperatures pushing into the Alps around 03 November. Off in FI at this stage, but 00z ECM had a similar idea. 12z ECM just rolling out.

Zermatt.



Hintertux

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ECM12z switches it cold from 03 November.
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ECM and GFS 00z both going cold from 03 November.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
12z GFS also going cold from 03 November.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Incredibly clear and warm day in the French Alps today. From Chamechaude above Grenoble we could clearly see Mt Mezenc around 150km away to the South East in the Massif Central.



Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Fri 28-10-16 20:49; edited 1 time in total
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Davis/klosters opening 3 weeks early apparently!
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Temperatures will drop maybe Saturday or Sunday next weekend but i still would not waste my francs heading to Davos next weekend. Me thinks will be just cold enough to get the snow blowers on.
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Confirmed on their website

Season opening at Sa 29 October till 1 November 2016

Davos Parsenn open: Parsenn 1 & 2 Section, Chairlift Totalp

Slopes: Nr 15 Totalp
Restaurants: Höhenweg | Weissfluhjoch | Parsennhütte
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
kitenski wrote:
Confirmed on their website

Season opening at Sa 29 October till 1 November 2016

Davos Parsenn open: Parsenn 1 & 2 Section, Chairlift Totalp

Slopes: Nr 15 Totalp
Restaurants: Höhenweg | Weissfluhjoch | Parsennhütte


The rest of the resorts do not open till end of November beginning of December so enough said. Money Grabbers for the uneducated
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
ECM 12z also went cold in the Alps on 03 November, but had it warming again by 05 November. So at this stage unclear if it is just a brief cooler spell or leads to something more sustained...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
This is how Davos/Klosters opens every year - they do weekend skiing early on with very limited piste. It is great for locals or if you want a small ski. We have a place there so often go for a weekend warm up - but it is clealy not the full opening until you get into December.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@diarmuidlynch, this is what all stations I know of do.

Limited opening when and where reasonable until full opening date.

Not sure where the money grabbing comes in? rolling eyes
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
With Abit of luck the high pressure system will breakdown soon, the models were recently throwing out a massive plunge of low pressure smack back over the Alps,
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
under a new name wrote:
@diarmuidlynch, this is what all stations I know of do.

Limited opening when and where reasonable until full opening date.

Not sure where the money grabbing comes in? rolling eyes


Still charge you the same amount for crap skiing as you would a few weeks later when all the slopes are open.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
12z GFS has a cold outlookfor November. All FI at this stage.
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@nozawaonsen, what's FI? wink
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Turoa, NZ, set to close next week, marking the end of the 2016 Southern Hemisphere season.

Western Canada will get slammed in the next week or so. Whistler due around ~200cm / ~80in...
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@Inboard, IIRC Fantasy Island. So far off into the future to be fantasy, but sounds like what you want on your perfect island!
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@HutToHut, aha! cheers for that and makes complete sense.

google wasn't helpful on this occasion - among the many possible FIs was faecal incontinence, although perhaps some folk experience that at a powder forecast... Embarassed

I'd thought I was fairly good on met acronyms, but obviously not! Laughing
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
As @HutToHut says FI is just a term used on weather forums to refer to the period (normally beyond around 5-7 days) where the reliability of forecasting models drops off. Individual runs become less important than the pattern you see over a number of runs and across models. A cooler spell for the start of November has been cropping up for a while now, but it's starting to build support now.

The initial cool period on 03 November looks like lasting only a day or two, but a more sustained cold period looks possible from 07 November.

Here's how GFS sees the jet stream shifting.



It's still unclear how long it will last, but if it did play out this way low pressure would push down into Europe with below average temperatures and snow for the Alps.
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Inboard wrote:
@HutToHut, aha! cheers for that and makes complete sense.

google wasn't helpful on this occasion - among the many possible FIs was faecal incontinence, although perhaps some folk experience that at a powder forecast... Embarassed

I'd thought I was fairly good on met acronyms, but obviously not! Laughing


I've always found it a very strange acronym as well, I usually just read it as 'far out' or 'far off' when the models stop being particularly reliable (usually 7-10+ days)
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@diarmuidlynch, generally a reduced pass price. Anyway, no-one's forcing you to go.

Mostly season pass holders anyway.
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@nozawaonsen, looking good for a blast of snow on Saturday then according to your fine graph.

If I remember this time last year we had a big dump then a warm dry spell until after xmas. The dump at around this time gave high altitude resorts just enough to have serviceable pistes.

I guess the good news is that if it does dump heavily sat and onwards for a few days it's likely to stick around in Val Thorens from at least 2400 ish and above.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
emwmarine wrote:
@nozawaonsen, looking good for a blast of snow on Saturday then according to your fine graph.

If I remember this time last year we had a big dump then a warm dry spell until after xmas. The dump at around this time gave high altitude resorts just enough to have serviceable pistes.

I guess the good news is that if it does dump heavily sat and onwards for a few days it's likely to stick around in Val Thorens from at least 2400 ish and above.

Synoptics are much better though this year, the mild Atlantic is nowhere to be seen and Europe is much colder than this time last year.

Still a few days to go so things can still change but definitely a trend towards colder and some snow over the next 10 days. None of the ensemble members are going for anything particularly mild at least. Hopefully the higher resorts will be able to start their snowmaking fairly soon.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Met O 30 day outlook is also quite encouraging, at the moment.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
This is starting to look interesting.



As ever with this chart it needs to be treated with a lot of caution. It's just raw data extrapolated from the GFS op run and I would caution against reading this too closely as an indication of forecast snowfall figures. But as a broad snapshot it is worth keeping an eye on.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Models going nuts... Taken from local weather forum:

1.) ECMWF predicts very high rain/snow levels in northern Adriatic Sea

Total percipitation from 31st October to 10th of November


Some of which will be snow


Very interesting wind situation on 9th of November. It predicts mini hurricane...


2.) GFS model also predicts very high rain/snow rate for south eastern alps. From latest run it seems Dolomites can get substantial snow delivery on November 6th and then again on 9th-10th November.


3.) Siberian snow cover - it's almost here Smile


4.) Just for fun... Gavs second winter model roundup.

http://youtube.com/v/vcumpJ8GvCY
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Also http://wepowder.fr/forum/topic/231572 makes for interesting reading!
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coddlesangers wrote:
Also http://wepowder.fr/forum/topic/231572 makes for interesting reading!


Yes, very interesting reading. And even more fascinating to watch it all unfold.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The main issue with the coming weekend is the FL which will probably be quite high, probably 500 meters above most resort level ski runs although it will be a chaud/froid event with temperatures dropping as the weather system moves through the region. In 2014 my local resort, les 7 Laux, was able to open its runs in November, but there was then a snow drought in the area only really broken in mid January despite snowmaggedon (snowmaggedon was really the authorities inability to cope with 20cm of snow and freezing rain at valley level).

So a way to go yet. Should be good for Val Tho and other high altitude resorts though.
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I posted this over on winterhighland after having seen it on the weather outlook, so may as well post here too.

Met office are currently predicting a higher chance of a cooler than average first half to winter, than a warmer than average one. Could be encouraging news for the Cairngorms and perhaps the Pennines ?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ndj-v2.pdf
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coddlesangers wrote:
Also http://wepowder.fr/forum/topic/231572 makes for interesting reading!


The English version is probably more interesting for most though wink
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Snow levels this weekend are likely to be tricky to call in advance. As @davidof, says it looks like it will fluctuate as the snow falls. With the range over the weekend looking like 1800-2200m in the western Alps and in the eastern Alps 1400-1800m.
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MeteoCenter.eu seems to be down. Has been since yesterday.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Yes people here in Serre Che talking about major return to winter and snow for Saturday into Sunday, though above 2,000m.

Guide mate who I'm cycling with tomorrow was quite excited on the phone this morning!

Weather past ten days has been superb though, great for being out enjoying autumn in the mountains.

Had some friends over from La Grave last night and again a major difference between there and here and we're at the same altitude. Every morning we've had overnight frost and temps minus 3 whilst there they have yet to have an overnight freeze.

We've been getting 20 degrees at the warmest point of the day whilst there they've had 24 in the shade.

We're leaving here Friday travelling to Davidof's part of the world and then driving back to UK Saturday and looks like rain all the way to Northern France rolling eyes
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Weathercam wrote:


We're leaving here Friday travelling to Davidof's part of the world and then driving back to UK Saturday and looks like rain all the way to Northern France rolling eyes


ah that will be a drag, are you stopping in the Chartreuse as usual?
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@davidof, yes stopping off at Voissant just down the road from Miribel-les-Échelles.

Feeling a lot cooler today with a windchill in the breeze - glad I did that big bike ride yesterday!

I did try to persuade the Mrs to go back Monday so we could get as quick ski tour in on Sunday, but she wasn't up for it rolling eyes
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