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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Whitegold, that sounds like a guess. And looking at your previous comments, most of your predictions are negative ones, so......
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Though it is the season of good will to all, I have been an avid reader but a lesser contributor to this thread for many years having lived in the heart of the Pyrenees for the last 12 years. And to be honest I have always enjoyed the comments of many posters who have helped hone my own understanding of the weather, the forecasting and the nuances of both.

However I have also noticed that over the last couple of years there have been those whose sole interest is either self publicity (thankfully no more from Serre) or those who just feel the need to rubbish those who are honestly trying to help.

Lets hope that 2017 gets this thread back on track - and hopefully we are all talking about snow Happy



Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sat 24-12-16 8:22; edited 1 time in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Ski Guide wrote:


Lets hope that 2017 gets this thread back on track - and hopefully we are all talking about snow Happy



It's snowing again at my house - to be honest I've had about enough of it now! Still have a bad back from having to excavate my truck in order to go skiing!






wink Madeye-Smiley snowHead
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Storm Barbara seems to have generated some snow in the highlands on Scotland and more on the way.

Anyway fresh look at the long term. Added Disclaimer wink Very Happy
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2016/12/christmas-eve-long-term-forecast.html
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
00z GFS is why caution remains important as the high pressure fails to withdraw over the Atlantic and therefore doesn't allow colder weather to pour down. Doesn't mean it won't now happen, but less confidence now than beforehand. ECM looked better.
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The high around Western Europe never really relinquishs control until the 8th of January at least...
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
00z GFS is why caution remains important as the high pressure fails to withdraw over the Atlantic and therefore doesn't allow colder weather to pour down. Doesn't mean it won't now happen, but less confidence now than beforehand. ECM looked better.


And mass hysteria and panicking commences in 5....4....3....2...1...........😱
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
The high around Western Europe never really relinquishs control until the 8th of January at least...


Not the Christmas present I was after Sad

Trying to think of where I could go in Europe that has decent snow but there's not many places. Just wish I could look forward to my trip rather than be depressed about it.
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@Raven, some recommendations further back in this thread where places got good snow, Montgenevre and other Italian resorts from memory.
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thought I was safe not leaving until 19 Jan, mild panic starting to set in now!
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
In my opinion @endoman, it's starting to look slightly more hopeful around New Year so maybe you don't need to panic just yet......... Toofy Grin
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
We're off to Morzine on the 2nd January.

I've been lurking on this page about 6 times a day for the last month and it's not looking good. Sad Sad Sad Sad
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
no_snow_in_swindon wrote:
We're off to Morzine on the 2nd January.

I've been lurking on this page about 6 times a day for the last month and it's not looking good. Sad Sad Sad Sad


Maybe you need to change your user name to 'no snow in morzine'

Toofy Grin
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Raven wrote:
no_snow_in_swindon wrote:
We're off to Morzine on the 2nd January.

I've been lurking on this page about 6 times a day for the last month and it's not looking good. Sad Sad Sad Sad


Maybe you need to change your user name to 'no snow in morzine'

Toofy Grin


Sadly I think i might have too. Sad
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
esaw1 wrote:
In my opinion @endoman, it's starting to look slightly more hopeful around New Year so maybe you don't need to panic just yet......... Toofy Grin


Here's hoping!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Fantasy island on the 6z run looks nice and cold and better than the 00z run.

Have faith brothers and sisters !
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I'm in Morzine at the moment and the skiing in Avoriaz has been good, lots of runs open and the pistes are in great condition, so don't worry so much.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
doddsie wrote:
I'm in Morzine at the moment and the skiing in Avoriaz has been good, lots of runs open and the pistes are in great condition, so don't worry so much.


thanks doddsie. I've been looking at the webcams and reports and high up it does seem that the runs are holding up well considering that there's not been any snow for 6 weeks.
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I'm in Morzine at the moment and the skiing in Avoriaz has been good, lots of runs open and the pistes are in great condition, so don't worry so much.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
davidof wrote:
For comparison, some historic data from les Contamines (lescontamines.net)

Etape - 1450m
Ruelle - 1650m
Signal - 1880m
Aiguille - 2300m

23/12/2016: 0 10 10 20
23/12/2015: 5 10 20 30
23/12/2014: 15 10 25 40
23/12/2013: 15 25 35 45
23/12/2012: 75 95 160 195
23/12/2011: 100 120 160 200
23/12/2010: 35 40 70 120
23/12/2009: 35 45 80 140
23/12/2008: 55 55 95 115
23/12/2007: 55 55 120 150
23/12/2006: 10 - 30 40



Grim data.

2016 is the worst start to the season in 11 years for Les Contamines.

Four of the 5 worst starts occurred in the past 4 years.

And 5-year rolling-average snowdepth has tumbled roughly -60%.
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I was walking my dogs on Pleney, in Morzine, today and it was beautiful, warm, birds tweeting, the smell of fresh grass (really). Shame it's not April!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
http://www.zapiks.fr/la-rolande-1.html

Just like 1964
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Had a blast round Avoriaz. It's good. Not too busy and not too much ice. The clouds have just unexpectedly rolled in and are producing some......




Drizzle Puzzled
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http://www.skicyprus.com/webcam/

Good snowfall up Troodos in Cyprus. I used to ski here when I was a young lad.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
12z GFS op run once again showing more promise in FI.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Morzine should be good this year so I hear
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
It's looking good out West.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/progs/index.php?prog=24

And looking like a powder day Christmas for Utah and Colorado. Merry Christmas!!!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
ECM12z ends with high pressure sitting back over the Atlantic and low pressure pushing down towards the Alps.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
It seems that Whitegold's guess might be correct, it looks likely that there will be some measurable white stuff overnight 1/2 Jan in the PDS, GM area.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
P10DW wrote:
it looks likely that there will be some measurable white stuff overnight 1/2 Jan


I think "likely" is overstating it a bit! It's 8-9 days away yet. We've all got our fingers crossed but plenty of time for change...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Happy Christmas to all. Let's hope for some good falls soon. I "was" taking the fam to Lech on the 13th.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Woke and it's snowing !!

ECM 00z looks good in the FI.

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
snowheads68 wrote:
Woke and it's snowing !!

ECM 00z looks good in the FI.



Enjoy the snow for Christmas snowHead

Where in the alps are you?
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Raven wrote:


Enjoy the snow for Christmas snowHead

Where in the alps are you?


Gasteinertal.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Just back from a cracking week in Schladming. 98% slopes open, and some excellent conditions. Slopes very quiet and a week of blue skies.
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@james75, are the runs down to the resort open? If so what shape are they in?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Whitegold wrote:
davidof wrote:
For comparison, some historic data from les Contamines (lescontamines.net)

Etape - 1450m
Ruelle - 1650m
Signal - 1880m
Aiguille - 2300m

23/12/2016: 0 10 10 20
23/12/2015: 5 10 20 30
23/12/2014: 15 10 25 40
23/12/2013: 15 25 35 45
23/12/2012: 75 95 160 195
23/12/2011: 100 120 160 200
23/12/2010: 35 40 70 120
23/12/2009: 35 45 80 140
23/12/2008: 55 55 95 115
23/12/2007: 55 55 120 150
23/12/2006: 10 - 30 40



Grim data.

2016 is the worst start to the season in 11 years for Les Contamines.

Four of the 5 worst starts occurred in the past 4 years.

And 5-year rolling-average snowdepth has tumbled roughly -60%.


Yeah but it kind of puts to bed the myth that it never snows before Christmas, well unless most people's memories only stretch back a couple of years.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Been feckin mild today here in Serre +11 and hear (15 degrees difference from yesterday) hear from my mate similar in Courmayer, which will feck most of the remaining off piste Sad

That said pistes in fabarou condition though with increasing traffic will get ard!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@ricklovesthepowder skiied down to resort level at all 4 mountains over the course of the week. Planai probably best of the bunch, Reiteralm getting a bit patchy. Think they might have had a dusting over the weekend too so next week should be a cracker.
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@james75, thank you.
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