 Poster: A snowHead
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Ok here goes! Deposit is down for 2 weeks in Big White for my honeymoon starting 2 January 2016. First ski holiday in Canada. The El Niño news is starting to freak me out! I know it's still early but the thought of our honeymoon being ruined by bad snow given that the very reason we are going to Big White is for the powder is just awful! I know there are no definitive answers to this it's the weather after all but I just dont know whether to pull out now and cap my loss before the balance is due on the holiday and I buy lift tickets etc or do I hold on and hope for the best! I realise I'm an epic snow worrier but this is the big one and if I get it wrong I will be gutted!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Last year was also El Nino, and there was a weather swap between the East and West coasts in North America. With the 14/15 forecast for BC being higher than average temperatures, and that is exactly what they got. There was plenty of precipitation, but due to high temperatures most of it fell as rain. This resulted in many of the smaller/lower resorts shutting for the season in Feb/Mar
I was in Whistler in mid March for 2 weeks, and I knew I was in for poor snow when on the way to pick up my lift ticket on the first morning, I passed racks of mountain bikes for hire. I think they ended up with 7m for the entire season. After 4 poor years in Whistler, I have given up for now, and booked Japan for my next powder fix.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I have every sympathy for you its a real tough one but I've decided to go for it so season passes booked to take advantage of early booking discount and no turning back. Whether I'm right or wrong having made some further enquires about the effects of El Nino in previous years on Big White I am gambling that the effects are marginal given Big White's elevation and location. So my very amateur advice is do a bit more digging and see if you can get specifics for Fernie in terms of the previous El Nino effects. I think that a lot of the reporting on the issue is very generalist and possibly a bit sensationalist. I emailed weathertoski.co.uk and they had some interesting thoughts on the issue. Good luck and may the snow gods smile on us all!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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IIRC east of the great divide, weather tends to be prevalent from the north, so you get your cold systems coming down. West of the divide then you have your Pacific systems in prevalence. El Nino can be unpredictable. It does tend to increase the amount of warm, wet weather coming in from the coast, but that doesn't necessarily mean a washout season - the year that Mt.Baker got it's record 1140" of snow was an el nino year. If the wet air meets cold air, bingo!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Thanks! I've downgraded my outlook from
'Dooooomed' to 'Let's cross our fingers and wait and see' 
I may well email Weather to Ski - I had seen on their website that they welcome enquiries but haven't had cause to contact them previously.
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Was actually about to post pretty much this exact same thread! I'm taking a career break to go skiing in Canada this January (skiing from the 21st), starting in Big White for the first two weeks and buying an early bird pass. El Nino is giving me the fear.
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I must admit I've been through the same train of thought, I was booked for Whistler but I had the opportunity to change my mind. After doing much reading (historic El Nino vs Snowfall) I decided to cancel my booking and stick to Europe this year. For me it was a long way to go for the odds to be stacked against it.
Of course it is the weather and these long range outlooks just give a big picture value for winter, that doesn't mean that it will be warm and dry for the whole season.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I wasn't planning on going to Canada this year. But in any case I found out about El Nino and now I am so depressed. Because I know now I'll never get to ski Whistler as it's pretty much never gonna snow there again. I feel like every time I've ever skied was just a waste of my life.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@mountainaddict, 2005 A.K.A. The Year of No Snow... Although all of Whistler was open it was supernaturally warm, but Baker had closed half the mountain due to poor conditions. I vowed to return.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@mountainaddict, Western canada is a big old place. Last year it was warm and there was talk of Fernie closing in Late Feb, they were cancelling races and having to download people on the chairs because of conditions which were warm and raining at base level. I'd say pretty grim. Disastrous? Banff/LL had good snow, though it was considered quite warm for there (-10c or so) and Jasper was apparently the best. Castle Mountain and some of the 'local hills' around Vancouver were closed in Mid/Late Feb.
So a bit of a mixed bag, and it was meant to be a pretty poor season by most standards. Pick well and you should be ok. I guess it's like Europe, some resorts will still be ok, even in a poor year when others are suffering.
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Last season was very poor across BC and the West Coast generally. You can easily see why if you look at the weather pattern. You can also look at previous Nino years, and it bears no correlation with the snow as far as I can tell.
The Okanagan however had great snow on January 2 2016. That and Silver Star had the best snow in BC, and better than anywhere else on the West Coast as far as I could ascertain. That's why I was there.
Lots of snow. More snow than anyone who is actually going to worry about snow could sensibly use.
Oh yes, and last season's weather pattern was weird, and it was pretty bad compared with normal years, but even when it's bad it's good.
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You know it makes sense.
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I'm in the same position, having booked to LL/KH/Revelstoke/Banff inlast week of Feb. Being a bit of a spod, I spent a long time trying to work out from the historical data on this site what likely outcomes are:
http://www.bestsnow.net/El_Nino.htm
Roughly, I concluded that:
a) Snow seems fair bit worse in that area in El Nino years;
b) Still seems pretty decent though;
c) I don't reckon anyone really knows whats happening that far in advance.
So decided to go anyway. Probably have a terrible time, but the beer and sushi in Canada is pretty good.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@mcloke,great choice, you'll not regret it , great resorts and great skiing , if you get fresh snow in revelstoke its one of the best places ever
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Poster: A snowHead
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Right in the same boat. Me and the missus just shelled out a lot of money to do a backcountry course in Fernie. Paid the deposit last year and have not been able to sit still ever since. I started to read about the El Nino in April and since then have been scouring the internet to find out what that will mean for snowfall this season and all I discovered is that there is no guarantee and no one really knows for sure. If you get the time there is a guy called Tony Crocker who posts on various forums/blogs and really knows his stuff http://bestsnow.net/El_Nino.htm History would suggest Fernie, in a strong el nino year, would see 76% of its average snowfall which I am told is better than a average European season. The biggest problem is the lack of data with Strong El Nino's and snowfall, one season saw above average snowfall on the west coast with a strong El Nino. And with this looking to be the strongest El Nino on record so no one knows what will happen but I have my fingers crossed that the money will be worth it. One thing I would suggest is have good insurance that covers you for poor snow conditions. It will also cover you if its puking and you cant get up the mountain which sounds a lot better! Another good website is this http://earth.nullschool.net/ lets you look at current air and sea temperatures if you really want to geek out. Also just read this which may put some peoples minds at ease https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/northwest
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I emailed Weather to ski.co.uk - & ended up receiving a couple of emails in response from Tony Crocker.
Wow, does he know his stuff! Stats and records for decades of El Nino, non El Nino and normal years....
It would seem that, rather than precipitation/snow, possible rain is the big issue  So with 20:20 hindsight we should have hung on before committing to paying deposits on 3 days' catskiing at Fernie....
However, a slight positive is that we can cancel the catskiing (and lose deposits only) up to 14 days beforehand. Our plan is to watch the weather, do snow dances and cross our fingers before committing to car hire and accommodation bookings....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| timbon wrote: |
| If you get the time there is a guy called Tony Crocker who posts on various forums/blogs and really knows his stuff http://bestsnow.net/El_Nino.htm History would suggest Fernie, in a strong el nino year, would see 76% of its average snowfall which I am told is better than a average European season. The biggest problem is the lack of data with Strong El Nino's and snowfall, one season saw above average snowfall on the west coast with a strong El Nino. And with this looking to be the strongest El Nino on record so no one knows what will happen but I have my fingers crossed that the money will be worth it. One thing I would suggest is have good insurance that covers you for poor snow conditions. It will also cover you if its puking and you cant get up the mountain which sounds a lot better! Another good website is this http://earth.nullschool.net/ lets you look at current air and sea temperatures if you really want to geek out. Also just read this which may put some peoples minds at ease https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/northwest |
Good summation. And Larry Schick for the PNW is pretty good when it comes to forecasting through the Opensnow.com link. Tough not to sweat it a bit but it's still several weeks before we start to hopefully see precip falling as snow at the higher elevations.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Position noted so far...Forgive my ignorance of the specifics of western Canada geography but - given this business about the great divide being a possible factor - would someone give me examples of which resorts are on which side (apart from an obvious one like Whistler  )??
And where IS Mt Baker??
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Check a map... but it's the watershed (remember GCE Geography...?) and it runs through Sunshine, which is near Banff.
I don't buy all this "guru" stuff about weather. It all sounds dangly bits to me, unscientific clap trap, no evidence of any consistency in it. The El Niño thing doesn't correlate with anything much at all. Worry away, I certainly shan't.
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| mountainaddict wrote: |
| ..And where IS Mt Baker?? |
On google.
Washington state, south of the US border. Think wet snow, but a lot of it. Like Whistler only warmer. So risk of rain, like Fernie. But good when it's good.
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I think Mountainaddict may well know that the Great Divide is the watershed - but he doesn't know which resorts are on which side of it.... (as I don't, with the odd exception - like the aforementioned Whistler; and Winter Park being more or less on it).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| philwig wrote: |
| mountainaddict wrote: |
| ..And where IS Mt Baker?? |
On google.
Washington state, south of the US border. Think wet snow, but a lot of it. Like Whistler only warmer. So risk of rain, like Fernie. But good when it's good. |
Us locals like to refer to that "wet snow" as Cascade Cement. That's why when us PNW'ers leave the state and ski anything with moisture content in the single digits, we can absolutely slay it on slalom skis, 'cause it's just that easy when you grow up skiing in cement! 
It's not uncommon for Baker to be much colder than Whistler and vice versa. Baker can get 3 feet of snow, while Whistler gets 10 cm's, or even rain. Meanwhile 100 miles East it's falling as snow.
Sometimes you have to go 1,000 miles East, and 1,000 miles South to get away from the warm fronts.
The jet stream is a funny thing around these parts. It has a mind of its own. It bends and whips in all sorts of directions, and that causes major unpredictability in our weather. In El Nino years the Jet likes to stay South of the PNW, and that's why places like Tahoe, and Southern Utah, Colorado seem to do better. And when Senor Nino comes North, he likes to bring warm and wet weather all the way from tropical Hawaii. Which is why they call it a Pineapple Express.
But like most have said, who knows what El Nino will bring until it's been brought. I suspect we will get a bit of everything. And if we are lucky, we will get about 70% of normal preicp falling as snow, and that will be better than the 70% below normal that we got during last winters weak El Nino.
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@Toadman, I stand corrected.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Toadman wrote: |
... Us locals like to refer to that "wet snow" as Cascade Cement. That's why when us PNW'ers leave the state and ski anything with moisture content in the single digits
...
It's not uncommon for Baker to be much colder than Whistler and vice versa. Baker can get 3 feet of snow, while Whistler gets 10 cm's, or even rain. Meanwhile 100 miles East it's falling as snow.
...In El Nino years the Jet likes to stay South of the PNW, and that's why places like Tahoe, and Southern Utah, Colorado seem to do better. ...But like most have said, who knows what El Nino will bring until it's been brought. .. |
That's also why Whistler is overrated. You do occasionally get "blower" up there, but only when the weather's significantly colder than normal (no ****). It gets a lot, but you trade that for quality. A lot of people drive north for snow, but most of those I know keep going a bit more.
The weather patters around the cost are very localised I think. My mates at Powder Mountain get significantly more (40%) than Whistler, and they're just across the valley. Not particularly last season, mind, for obvious reasons.
The Snowbird weather people report no correlation with snow levels and El Niño over the last 50 years: one above average, one below, the rest... average.
--
Watershed: you're right that location matters, but it's not specifically which way the melt goes that matters. So categorising resorts that way is a start, but you need to look slightly closer. So Whistler's defining characteristic is, IMHO, "coastal". Banff is on the edge of this prairie thing so is mostly cold and dry. In between there's a lot of terrain and stuff going on, and it depends where precisely the hill is, not precisely which way the water flows.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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And in other news in this doomed-to-be-awful El Nino year, Mammoth just received 12"-30" of snow and will now be opening earlier than scheduled this week. Will there be more? Who knows - probably best to just adapt to prevailing conditions and make the most of it...
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You know it makes sense.
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As we see in this country the jet stream is what drives it all and the flipping thing seems to do what it feels like. So going to Whistler and going to have a blast as usual. Missed last year and aware that they were short of snow but it still managed to be open at end of May. If it is lovely and sunny then super, rather have that over the whiteouts we often get.
Big White is in a different place entirely though and would have thought it would be fine. @billybob, you will have a great time.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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STOP WORRYING! We all know we are in a weather dependent sport and no matter what planning ahead we do, it will have absolutely no effect on the weather! Where ever, when ever you go, ENJOY it. There is always next season. My first season, at age 54 was from January to May 2005 in Canada. The season of "no snow". Still did 2 instructor courses and skied when ever I wanted to. May not have been the "best" snow but still fantastic. Now I really have "retired" after doing 10 winter seasons working for Tour Operators Ect. Just have my 4, (so far) booked ski holidays to look forward to. Maybe squeeze a
fifth in in April!.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Whistler is expecting a 48" dump over the next 7 days ! Which is flipping lucky as there was nothing last week.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Jake43 wrote: |
| Whistler is expecting a 48" dump over the next 7 days ! Which is flipping lucky as there was nothing last week. |
Unless you count the 35cms on Saturday night, and bits and bobs before.
4ft in November (if it turns up) is considerably better than this time last year.
It is chilly today, the sound of ice scraping filling the air, etc... which is nice - even have a bit of snow on top of the north shore mountains - hope that's not all we get this year!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@stuarth, " even have a bit of snow on top of the north shore mountains - hope that's not all we get this year!"
been waiting two years to ski the north shore , hope this is the year !!
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Two seasons back there was a decent dump on December 15 and I rode Cypress, which wasn't too terrible. Since then I've stayed away from there and Whistler, well other than to drive through. The last two seasons have been tough down there on the left.
The highway cams have shown the Coquihalla looking white for some time. Further north there's snow where you'd expect it.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Early signs are encouraging for West Coast precip. Might book something last minute for Whistler for USA Thanksgiving
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Revy has had over 1m in seven days
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Well, we're definitely getting the wet bit today!! Hopefully it's cold enough in Whistler to be coming down as some nice sticky base layer snow.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Possible 40cm-60cm forecast for Whistler over the next 5 days. Comes with some pretty heavy duty winds Thursday/Friday in the alpine.
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FAQ
- with warm conditions being reported as all but certain across western Canada all winter. In fact 
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