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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@stefoy4me, +1
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@under a new name, I tell you, we're doomed.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
sounds like its gona be a short season, better get out this weekend before it all goes Laughing
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Actually the mild chart I put up a few posts back was ECM not GFS. There is a good consensus on milder weather next week, what's less clear is how long it will last. The 06z has colder temperatures returning by next Friday though.
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ok, so only a week.......we can work with that........cold and snowy from next friday through to xmas will do for me!!!
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also by the looks of it milder is just a return to the seasonal average?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@ewanmalone, ah no. The ECM chart on the previous page suggests it could be quite a bit above average. But hopefully not very long lasting.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
A bit of freeze thaw can't hurt, the ground temps must of been pretty high with the weather through November being so warm.
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if its warmer clear days it should be followed by cold nights....allowing the cannons to fire through the night
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emwmarine wrote:
Imagine there will be snow in November that will stick around at higher altitudes only, then some more in December, Jan, Feb, Mar and April by when it will start melting and only be useful at high altitudes going into May.

The first really big dump will be early this year, due to Elle Ningoin, on Friday 4th December. Around 50cm is forecast for the 3Vs.


My July forecast is still holding up. Still confident about snow next Friday.
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emwmarine wrote:
emwmarine wrote:
Imagine there will be snow in November that will stick around at higher altitudes only, then some more in December, Jan, Feb, Mar and April by when it will start melting and only be useful at high altitudes going into May.

The first really big dump will be early this year, due to Elle Ningoin, on Friday 4th December. Around 50cm is forecast for the 3Vs.


My July forecast is still holding up. Still confident about snow next Friday.


Very precise
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@emwmarine, Laughing we'll just draw a veil over today - the second nice snowfall of November shall we? And Friday's forecast sunshine?
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
pam w wrote:
@emwmarine, Laughing we'll just draw a veil over today - the second nice snowfall of November shall we? And Friday's forecast sunshine?


Laughing Laughing
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
pam w wrote:
Quote:

how is a local e.g. Avoriaz MF forecast produced?

I don't know. But over several years I have found them no more reliable than snow-forecast. Different, though (sometimes very different) so they presumably don't rely just on GFS.
!


I doubt very much they rely on the GFS at all.

The missus tells me return to summer next week with the snow pretty much melting below 2000m, a bit like last season. So I've got a free pass to ski until it then Happy.

Personally I hope she's wrong.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
davidof wrote:
pam w wrote:
Quote:

how is a local e.g. Avoriaz MF forecast produced?

I don't know. But over several years I have found them no more reliable than snow-forecast. Different, though (sometimes very different) so they presumably don't rely just on GFS.
!


I doubt very much they rely on the GFS at all.

The missus tells me return to summer next week with the snow pretty much melting below 2000m, a bit like last season. So I've got a free pass to ski until it then Happy.

Personally I hope she's wrong.


That's painful to read!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@davidof, my favourite site, meteoblue.com suggests milder days but cold nights... so not so much like last season at all.

Get it in while you can of course! Twisted Evil
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
under a new name wrote:
@davidof, my favourite site, meteoblue.com suggests milder days but cold nights... so not so much like last season at all.

Get it in while you can of course! Twisted Evil


I fear the traditional start of December fohn which always ruins everything. Lets hope we avoid that too.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
At present any warm up in the Alps looks fairly short lived.

Chamonix



The Arlberg



Cairngorm

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I've noticed this a few times and I have to admit to being a bit baffled.



There appears to be two green lines, one thicker than the other, in both the Temp and Precip graphs. I assume the thicker one is the GFS. In the snip above the GFS line appears to be flat against the bottom of the graph. Is this really saying the GFS forecast is for no precip at all during the period it is at the bottom?
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@Gaza, yes it is
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@Gaza, you're looking a bit far out to know what's likely to happen.

Stop fretting.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Gaza, no it isn't.

There are 22 different ensembles that make up the GFS (or more properly GEFS) model including the operational (thick green) and control (thick blue).

Each is signified by a different colour (they are listed on the left hand side from P1 to P20).

Each has slightly different initial inputs which create different outputs (magnified over time).

So at the far end of the run where you are looking there are a range of outcomes shown by the different spikes. The operational run doesn't show any rain or snow, but other ones do although to different degrees and different times.

What does that mean? No consensus and therefore uncertainty. Which is kind of what you would expect at that range. If you start to see a pattern repeating in FI over several runs you might want to start paying attention to it, but not otherwise.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Gaza, to explain, the two green lines are different colours although I appreciate that some folks won't be able to see that. The one you refer to is the thicker of the two on which basis it maybe easier for some to tell the difference.

As for the others. The thick red line indicates the 30 year historical average t850hPa for that date, the thick white line indicates the mean value of all ensemble members and the thick blue line is the control member from that particular run. The thick green line is plotted from the data of the higher resolution operational run (the one in all the main WZ GFS charts). The other, thinner lines of all colours lines indicate the various “perturbed” members from that particular model run.

As others say it is too far away at that range to be of serious relevance at this stage, if it was at short range and therefore on the left hand side of the graph with all the others and the mean on the same line then yes we would be concerned - but only if the temperature was also notably above average.
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@under a new name, not fretting. Just trying to understand what it is showing and if my understanding is correct.

@nozawaonsen, @robboj, many thanks for the explanations. I think I am beginning to understand. I think. Razz Razz Razz
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Netweather winter forecast - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=
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emwmarine wrote:
@under a new name, I tell you, we're doomed.



http://youtube.com/v/5U319VzSqEU
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.


Some decent snowfall for Switzerland and Austria to come over next few days before a drier and milder spell. FI doesn't look particularly cold or snowy for now.

Where that could be most frustrating is on the southern side of the Alps which have not profited much so far from early snowfall and don't look likely to for the timebeing.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen wrote:
.......before a drier and milder spell. FI doesn't look particularly cold or snowy for now.


Bergfex, but more so Accuweather, are translating that in to the level of temperatures we were seeing up until last week.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Very warm next week, it seems, but with no rain and low winds. Could be worse.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

This is from Accuweather for the EK.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Snowing quite hard here and has been for most of past 12 hours. We have a snow alert put out by the Deutsche Wetterdienst along with a ones for black ice and drifting! I've got to drive to Munich this afternoon so I'm hoping it has eased off by then. We have a minor warm blip but I don't think it will make any significant difference to the actual winter conditions in the mountains as the nights are forecast to be cold so the cannons will be blowing out snow as fast as they can Toofy Grin Toofy Grin Toofy Grin
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Gaza, meteoblue are translating their model sets into slightly below seasonal average during the day and cold at night. At least for Chamonix.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Chamonix Meteo .- http://chamonix-meteo.com/chamonix-mont-blanc/weather/forecast/morning/5_days_weather_forecast.php

EXTENDED OUTLOOK UNTIL TUESDAY DECEMBER 1 2015
Sunday : very uncertain ‑ light snowfall ‑ strong NW high up. Monday and Tuesday : fairly sunny ‑ getting milder ‑ NW wind probably remaining fairly strong high up until Tuesday noon.
Forecast reliability : poor.
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Chilly with a strong NW wind today. Quite a lot of snow transport with slabby snow on the slopes we were on but no significant weak layers. Around 30cm snow depth at 1100 meters, 50 to 70 cm at 1750 meters... up to a meter with drifting. With last Sunday's snowfall providing a bit of a base skiing was surprisingly pleasant.

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@Gaza, Accuweather is just the GFS op run with pictures. Not worth bothering with.
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One thing I haven't really seen mentioned with regards to the potential Max temps next week, it depends on how long that temperature is held.

You could see a 'spike' in temperature during the day that lasts only an hour or two, before it quickly falls off to below freezing again. At this time of the year we have long nights and short days so I'd expect any 'max' temps to be short lived if the forecast is also showing cold nights. If the nights are forecast to be warm, then you could have problems. Also, the sun isn't terribly strong at this time of the year either, so that shouldn't do too much damage if it's out.
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Quote:

You could see a 'spike' in temperature during the day that lasts only an hour or two, before it quickly falls off to below freezing again.

you could. Maybe. But there doesn't seem much doubt there'll be a very warm couple of days in early December, in many places, with little or no freezing at all around 1500m. In those conditions you'd expect inversions so precise temperatures will depend on lots of things. What's going to happen after 5 December is the crucial question and there seems no certainty at all about that.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Decent snowfall all day in Schruns, down to the village at ~700m. Yesterday too.

Lifts opened today (I didn't ski as I've been off sick the last two days and had a lot to catch up on), but my flatmate and boss reported ~20cms of powder, though v limited base offpiste.
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Looking good where you are, @davidof.
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@balernoStu, was just thinking the same thing. @davidof, where are you (roughly)?
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