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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Comparing Tignes and St Foy cams, quite a difference although being circa 15 km apart ...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
60mm on NYM at 0200 this morning........................

None now.................. Sad
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Meribel cam came online 1300 today.

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emwmarine wrote:


10 A=25 + RAND NUMBER
15 resort = RAND String "Val Thorens", "paradiski", "Les Antons"
20 For i = 20 to 1 step -1
30 print "predicted snow depth in resort ": A "Inches of snow predicted in ": i " days time"
40 A = A - 3
50 next i

There that's GFS written for you.




30 print "predicted snow depth in"; resort$;": ";A;" Inches of snow predicted in "; i ;" days time"

that's better, GFS should work now! Smile
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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jellylegs wrote:
emwmarine wrote:


10 A=25 + RAND NUMBER
15 resort = RAND String "Val Thorens", "paradiski", "Les Antons"
20 For i = 20 to 1 step -1
30 print "predicted snow depth in resort ": A "Inches of snow predicted in ": i " days time"
40 A = A - 3
50 next i

There that's GFS written for you.




30 print "predicted snow depth in"; resort$;": ";A;" Inches of snow predicted in "; i ;" days time"


That's better, GFS should work now! Smile


Thank's been a while since I had to remember sinclair Basic syntax.....

Snowforecast is showing 12mm snow for next Wednesday at VT, when they run my ZX81 GFS upgrade software we will soon see that disappearing over the next few days Madeye-Smiley
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Bucket loads in Central Switzerland today, was funny as was first day temperatures had dropped under 15C or so during daytime!!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Snowed overnight 27cm in Mürren (Wengen 5cm) by 9am

https://twitter.com/Murrenlover
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Im copenhagen we got at bit of snow kaos just now. Low pressure bom has hit the area.
People will go nordic skiing Sunday 😨
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Just been outside and we have some dandruff on the ground in the village but the roads are clear. Lots more on the mountain opposite though Toofy Grin
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Loads of snow in Morzine/ Montriond and still going. Now being woken by the sound of the plough not the donkeys in the field behind. Winter is here
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Snowfall for the Alps looks like coming in three bands over the next week.

- Late Wednesday into Thurday.
- Saturday night.
- Sunday night into Monday

The north side of the Alps will see the most snow.

Scotland should also see some decent snowfall this week especially in the west.



Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Mon 23-11-15 10:50; edited 1 time in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
It's been a very good few days and hopefully week or so to come.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Looks like Yorkshire but its actually the French alps this afternoon. Cold and windy.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I guess that rules out any more cycling.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Good old El Nino - I knew it wouldn't let us down snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen,has El Niño had an impact on this or is it just the way it is
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:


Scotland should also see some decent snowfall this week especially in the west.



Just watched the weather for the week ahead on Countryfile and it didn't match that chart. The temps looked to be much too high for any serious snow.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I thought country file showed precipitation over the alps mid weeks? It was difficult to tell as it was only a fleeting view.

Do they use GFS?
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@emwmarine, it did but I isolated the comment "Scotland should also see some decent snowfall this week especially in the west." Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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@Gaza, not at all.

The chart I showed runs out till midnight on Sunday.

Although there may be some snow showers on the mountains tomorrow, temperatures for Scotland are due to be relatively high midweek and into the end of the week, but ECM and GFS both suggest it will cool next weekend. And that's where the snowfall shown on that chart comes from.

Here's the ECM which is not that different for GFS next Sunday.



And at the end of the Country File forecast (still for now provided by the Met Office) they also talked about it getting colder next weekend.

So pretty consistent I reckon.

Whether it still looks that way tomorrow is another point altogether of course.
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@nozawaonsen, apologies. I missed the date on the chart and thought you were referring to this coming week.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Gaza, to be fair I wasn't very specific when I said "this week" but I meant the next seven days rather than the working week. Either way you are quite right that it doesn't look that cold up until possibly the weekend!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Finally about half the snow fell in the French Northern Alps that was forecast by Meteo France. Still that's pretty much normal. Less snow on the ground than this time last year but that was hardly a reference. Should be ok where there is snow making for the start of the skis season or above 2500 meters. Elsewhere, not so much.
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Quote:

Less snow on the ground than this time last year but that was hardly a reference. Should be ok where there is snow making for the start of the skis season or above 2500 meters. Elsewhere, not so much.


Well, even if the amounts of snow were identical to this time last year, it all depends what happens in the following weeks, doesn't it? If it gets very warm, like last year......could be just as bad. If it stays cold and there's more precipitation, plus the snow making on key areas, should be absolutely fine. Too soon to say, one way or another, but it's not looking too bad, with a high probability of more snow during this coming week. A huge amount can happen in three weeks.
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Tignes reporting 70cm fresh Smile

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Nice
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I've updated the chart I posted yesterday afternoon for the latest 06z forecast which now suggests there should be fairly substantial snowfall for the northern Alps in the next seven days, more so to the west, but still plenty in the east.

As ever I would not take those figures on the chart too seriously. They will in any case change, but it gives you an idea. The heaviest snow looks like falling this weekend Sunday into Monday. After that the following week looks like starting relatively mild as high pressure starts to rebuild.

SLF update for Switzerland valid up till 1700 last night.

"Since Friday evening the following overall amounts of snowfall have been registered above 2500 m:

- Northern flank of the Alps,northern Valais, western Lower Valais: 60 to 100 cm
- Remaining parts of Valais, remaining parts of Gotthard region, northern Grisons, Silvretta and Samnaun: 30 to 60 cm
- Further to the south, significantly less; in the furthermost south, dry

Wednesday

On Wednesday in northern and western regions, snowfall is anticipated down to low lying areas accompanied by strong velocity westerly winds."
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That table is nearer to 100mm (10cm)........
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
That's way more than 10cm.. more like 25cm or so. They are reporting 80cm at 3000m.
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@Maersk, my eyes are bad but I think yours are worse! While I don't think it is 70cm it is a good bit more than 10cm. I would say the table is around 70cm high and the snow on top around a 1/3 of that height. Toofy Grin Toofy Grin

This always make me laugh when thinking about perspective:-


http://youtube.com/v/dS12p0Zqlt0
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I was thinking it didn't look like 70cms but not wanting to be accused of being pessimistic..... wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Just to repeat that it is incredibly difficult to accurately measure snowfall (and I'm not sure that table was actually meant to have been illustrating 70cm snowfall anyway). 70cm may well have fallen at some point in Tignes or it may not. But it won't necessarily have been uniform across a wide area and won't necessarily be there now. It will have been blown all over the place by the wind, collecting in some places whilst being stripped in others and sunk under it's own weight.

It's very hard to accurately (within cms) predict snowfall and it's very hard to accurately measure it afterwards.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Maersk wrote:
That table is nearer to 100mm (10cm)........


As Noza says, it is clearly very difficult to measure, but that image shows way more than 10cm. It may of course be wind blown, but it doesn't look like it.
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Interesting point. So what do snow depths actually mean? Are they measured in a standard way (amount collected on a weather station or something) or is it completely arbitrary and dependent on how poorly the local tour operators are doing at the time?
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@FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS, well one suspects that a fair few places with a commercial interest might be fairly arbitrary leaning towards exaggeration, but that's being cynical. You also need to distinguish between an attempt to describe snowfall versus snow depth. Both being different.

This article gives some good background.

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/in-brief/4477/how-deep-snow
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Arbitrary, and not based on fact, or borders scraping it down to zero.
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@Gaza, lol... the reported 70cm was never based on that table anyway !! lol... they mean at altitude !
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I received this email from a reputable chalet hosting company....

"The snowfall this weekend has turned Morzine from a sleepy autumn town into a snow covered Ski & Snowboard paradise...and yes, we're VERY excited. The forecast of snow every day this week is just what we want for an awesome early season! The sub zero temperatures are set to continue with the freezing level staying well below village level, creating a nice stable base and good snow pack."


A 'paradise' no less and snow EVERY DAY! I mean who needs weather reports? rolling eyes
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Well, I have no idea how much snow actually fell in Morzine but at Les Saisies, not far off and at a considerably higher altitude, they had 24cms. Transformational on the webcams but not actually a great deal of snow. Looks like some more coming this week...... but what do you expect from chalet companies? wink
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Yep, full of sh*t!
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