 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Sorry for stating the obvious , but the world is warming . It's not just a flip of a coin saying above or below average , as a gambling man there's only one bet , above average . I know none of us want to hear it but the chances of above or below average winters are more than 50% in favour of above .
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| Rob Mackley wrote: |
| Sorry for stating the obvious , but the world is warming . It's not just a flip of a coin saying above or below average , as a gambling man there's only one bet , above average . I know none of us want to hear it but the chances of above or below average winters are more than 50% in favour of above . |
Not sure what you mean. If it's warming then the average will be higher.
Also, don't you mean the median? 99% of people have above the average number of legs.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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He means that there is a trend and the median has nothing to do with it, this is not how trends work. If the established trend is rising temperatures, your safe bet is on the trend to continue. Even if winter ends up being colder, it will be likely an outlier, not a trend reversal, and it's silly to bet on a outlier to happen.
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I wonder if colder winter compensates for this warm summer. Last summer in Geneva and Switzerland was the coldest on record yet the year was above average due to warmer winter months.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@never summer, not in any way that you say we had a hot summer therefore we will have a cold winter. A hot summer can be followed by a mild winter and a cold winter can be followed by a chilly summer.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@nozawaonsen, I understand that there is no such rule, just expressing hope that the year will end up more or less average despite the hot summer 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Heat keeps on rolling on...
The 30 day anomaly for Radstadt has now pushed up to +4.5C.
The heat is notable not just for the record high temperatures, but for the length of the heat wave. ZAMG reports a number of Austrian weather stations (mainly in the east) have set new records for the number of days above 35C. Wien-Hohe Warte has now had 10 days above 35C this summer compared to a previous record of 5 in 2013 and 14 from the summers of 2005-2014 combined.
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/stellenweise-neue-rekorde-der-35-grad-tage
ZAMG suggest four possible reasons, global warming over the last few decades raising temperatures in general, high pressure sitting further north than normal, dry soil conditions (reducing cooling through evaporation and thunderstorms) and possibly El Nino though there is not enough research to link this with confidence.
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A thundery break down in the very hot weather across much of the Alps looks likely this weekend. May even see a few cms of fresh snow at the very top.
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You know it makes sense.
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Hi all
Sorry for hijacking thread but can anybody confirm/advise if there is to be a PSB in 2015 as I cannot see a thread and I know it is a popular thread or am I panicking too early!!!
it is past the summer solstice now and thoughts turning to winter!!!!
Thanks for any info.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Fixx
THANKS for that
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Not completely sure what the question is? There's more ENSO background on page 1 of this thread though.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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Bruce Tremper retiring.
@UACwasatch: Bozeman forecaster, Mark Staples, will replace Director Bruce Tremper when he retires next week. Meet him Sept 10th http://t.co/0d5CsWutE4
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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1986 was an absolute classic in the UK. A bigger winter than 9/10. Skiing in May in the North Pennines ! Worth musing.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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There was snowflakes in the wind yesterday in Calgary. Little bruv reported 35 Deg C last week and then 3 degs with flocons yesterday 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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SLF has put out a detailed analysis of the snowpack in Switzerland last winter.
http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/wochenbericht/2014-15/Jahresbericht/index_FR
Tricky on the northern side of the Alps in particular as a result of the mild weather in November and December. Sadly avalanche fatalities were especially high last year with 33 victims in Switzerland against a long term average of 23.
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You know it makes sense.
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Some interesting thoughts from Met Office Contingency Planners, picking up on a few of the themes mentioned above.
"... Climate models suggest that sea surface temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds for the rest of the year and that a moderate to strong event is likely. In terms of influence on the weather across the UK, such an event slightly increases the probability of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in late autumn. The positive phase of NAO towards the end of the period is associated with mild weather.
Another factor which could influence temperatures over the UK is the colder-than-average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic. Whilst this cold sea surface temperature anomaly is not known to influence large-scale weather patterns, it could increase the probability of below-average temperatures should winds blow frequently from the Atlantic during the early part of the season. Several computer models are in reasonably good agreement, favouring higher-than-average pressure near the UK during September. Usually, at this time of year, this atmospheric circulation pattern is associated with above-average temperatures. However, signals from models, whilst similar, are weak and the colder-than-average North Atlantic (as discussed above) may play a moderating role on temperatures. These factors lead to a temperature forecast where there is a broad range of possible outcomes, with probabilities of above- and below-average almost equal – see left-hand graph in figure T2.
Autumn is a transitional time of year; a given circulation pattern can result in different temperature outcomes between the start and end of the season. For example, a pattern dominated by unsettled weather across the UK often results in cooler-than-average conditions in September and milder-than-average in November. Towards the end of the season there is a preference in computer models for cyclonic circulation patterns to be more dominant near the UK, lending some support to the forecast of above-average temperatures for the season as a whole."
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Isn't there always a 50/50 chance of autumn (or any other season) being either warmer or colder than average?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@pam w, no, the Meteo France chart breaks it down into three (not two categories), colder than normal, normal and warmer than normal.
For Europe it's suggesting a 15% chance of colder than normal, a 35% chance of normal and a 50% chance of warmer than normal. So that's quite weighted towards a warmer than normal autumn. That doesn't meant it will happen that way, just that that is the way Meteo France (based on ECMWF) sees the balance. CFS is also suggesting a slightly warmer than normal autumn.
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Snow line looks like it could briefly fall to around 2100m by the weekend with some fresh autumn snow showers falling on the glaciers.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@nozawaonsen, I see. Thanks
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@nozawaonsen, Bavarian radio is saying it has dropped as low as 1500m in places!
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Despite a cooler spell to come ZAMG joins the consensus in suggesting a warmer than average autumn to come.
http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/wetter/produkte-und-services/saisonprognose
With a 70% likelihood for warm, 20% for average and 10% for cool ZAMG is backing the cards falling in one direction. That may not mean snow at altitude of course even if it does turn out mild.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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FAQ
compared to an average of 43.
