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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
RetroBod wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
There's been a few runs recently which see high pressure starting to reassert itself over the Alps from 15/16 February. 12z GFS op run goes for that. Too early to tell but certainly a reasonable possibility.

What does that mean?


No snow. #springiscoming
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

What does that mean?

Puzzled What do you mean, "what does it mean?" It means that high pressure might re-assert itself from mid month. So the Atlantic would be kept at bay - generally drier weather. Maybe some lovely sunshine...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
It means where sunscreen. FWIW, you should always wear sunscreen.

This has been a public service announcement of the Skin Cancer Prevention of Skiers Association
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Toadman wrote:
always wear sunscreen.


You are baz lurhman and I claim my five pinds!
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High pressure usually means warmth and little/no precipitation.
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Minion1980 wrote:
High pressure usually means warmth and little/no precipitation.


The joys !
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Minion1980 wrote:
High pressure usually means warmth and little/no precipitation.


That has to be better than warmth and precipitation
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This week had great potential for the NW alps coming in....but sadly not the case right now. Looks like its going to rain to 1500-1600 all day tomorrow, with the temperatures not dropping fast enough to catch the heaviest downpours. Light snow Tues night into Wed. And a repeat on the cards for Saturday. Where's the whiskey.
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davidof wrote:


No snow. #springiscoming


Er, it could mean that. But high pressure could also mean cold. Or it could be short lived. Or it might not happen at all. Generally it means more settled weather.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
davidof wrote:


No snow. #springiscoming



Generally it means more settled weather.


yeah, #springiscoming, in fact only 20 days away now, maybe 19 by the time you read this.
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Quote:

This week had great potential for the NW alps coming in....but sadly not the case right now. Looks like its going to rain to 1500-1600 all day tomorrow, with the temperatures not dropping fast enough to catch the heaviest downpours. Light snow Tues night into Wed. And a repeat on the cards for Saturday. Where's the whiskey.


So snow to resort level in most places then? Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And there again might get a feckin great low pressure system dumping snow in late March / early April resulting in great powder, what will be will be!
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So snow to resort level in most places then? Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy[/quote]

You'll probably get better odds on Wednesdays 29m lotto draw
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
stevomcd wrote:


So snow to resort level in most places then? Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


In eastern Alps yes, in western Alps lower resorts look like seeing a mix of rain and snow at valley level. Higher resorts, lots of snow.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
stevomcd wrote:
Quote:

This week had great potential for the NW alps coming in....but sadly not the case right now. Looks like its going to rain to 1500-1600 all day tomorrow, with the temperatures not dropping fast enough to catch the heaviest downpours. Light snow Tues night into Wed. And a repeat on the cards for Saturday. Where's the whiskey.


So snow to resort level in most places then? Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


guess it depends how high your resort is:

Apercu météo: La pluie va détremper la neige en-dessous de 1800/2000 m mardi après-midi

Savoie: pluie-neige 1700 m - 1900 m
Mont-Blanc: pluie-neige 1800 m
Alpe d'Huez; pluie-neige 2000 m
Chamrousse: pluie-neige 2000 m
Serre Chevalier: pluie-neige 1800 m
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Glencoe looking snowier and cooler than the Alps today...

http://www.winterhighland.info/pix/displayimage.php?photo_id=32656
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Not sure what happened to last nights forecast storm?
The winds had abated by 22.00 hrs & very little snowfall overnight in Tignes Confused

Currently overcast skies with very little wind at resort level.
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We are current in Manigod France at 1400. It rained constantly from late afternoon yesterday and In to the evening and just popped my head out to see more of it !
We did go night skiing last night and the pistes were holding up but the 25cm of fresh snow that arrived Monday has now all but gone with any off piste distroyed. If the fourcast is right the rain today should turn to snow by tonight so tomorrow might be a big improvement (if it hasn't been to trashed in the meantime)
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@stewart woodward, the strongest winds are predicted for this afternoon in the Alps. The storm is due today not last night. You are getting ahead of yourself and overexcited.

Renry, yes the forecast has been consistent for some time now that this would arrive with a relatively high snow level which would then fall overnight.

Here's SLF

"Weather forecast through Tuesday, 9.2.2016

The weather will be very cloudy. Snow will fall frequently in the west, but only occasionally in the east. In the south precipitation will
commence in the morning.

Fresh snow

By Tuesday evening the amounts of snow indicated below will fall. The snowfall level will drop from 1500 m to 1000 m.

- Extreme west of Lower Valais and northern Valais from Ovronnaz to the Aletsch region: 30 to 50 cm
- Rest of the western part of the northern flank of the Alps, rest of Lower Valais, and main Alpine ridge from Binntal to the Bernina region: 20 to 30 cm
- Elsewhere mostly 10 to 20 cm, but less in the inneralpine regions of Grisons

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m: between -2 °C in the north and -4 °C in the south, 0 °C in the regions exposed to the foehn

Wind

Strong to storm force, from the west to south west

Outlook through Thursday,

11.2.2016

Wednesday will be very cloudy and snow will continue to fall in the north in particular. The wind will veer northwesterly and remain strong. The weather will become much colder. It will become increasingly sunny in the south with a northerly wind. On Thursday the precipitation will cease and and there will be clear spells until the evening approaches, when further precipitation will arrive from the west. The avalanche danger may increase a little on Wednesday and will decrease slowly on Thursday. For winter sport participants the avalanche situation will remain precarious."
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Foehn storm all day yesterday and today in the Jungrau Region,CH. most lifts are closed !
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Forecast(s) spectacularly wrong so far for the Southern Alps.

Was due to start snowing at 16:00 yesterday, admittedly only a dribble, but more substantial overnight and heavy this morning, so far "de nada" and looking at the rain radar confirms that we've missed out on what Chamonix is getting.

That said there is another heavier band of precipitation hopefully tracking our way from the looks of things but a good few hours off.
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Is there any chance the experts here could cast their eyes over the data/charts for the Ski Amade area for the next week or so and help me make some sense of it? Thanks in advance guys.
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@Weathercam, was only light snow forecast for Serre overnight. Heavy snow later today.

Here is yesterday's archived forecast which doesn't suggest heavy overnight to me and almost nothing in the morning.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=1&mode=1&map=20&heure=12&jour=8&mois=2&annee=2016&archive=1


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Tue 9-02-16 8:03; edited 1 time in total
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@Timberwolf, looks like snow to low levels tomorrow. Next weekend looks like seeing rising temperatures and more snow, snow line could be a bit high? Both GFS and ECM currently suggest colder the week after with more snow though that's a bit far off.
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Hard to reconcile todays MF snow lines for savioe / chamoinix (1900) with the SLF calling for 1500-1000 in neighboring lower west Valais. WRF has rain until late evening in the west. I guess the temp drops faster in the east, and the storm hits marginally later. Very fine lines once again between joy and despair!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Weathercam, was only light snow forecast for Serre overnight. Heavy snow later today.

Here is yesterday's archived forecast which doesn't suggest heavy overnight to me.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=1&mode=1&map=20&heure=12&jour=8&mois=2&annee=2016&archive=1


Meteo France said 10cm for Monday, 10cm for Tuesday. Although that will probably fall as rain on your bird table.

05 Prefect has advised against any off piste skiing today; for anyone in the Hautes-Alpes whose insurance might be affected by local authority advice.



Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Tue 9-02-16 8:11; edited 3 times in total
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@langball, the temperature is also forecast to drop on the French side tonight as well.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Timberwolf, looks like snow to low levels tomorrow. Next weekend looks like seeing rising temperatures and more snow, snow line could be a bit high? Both GFS and ECM currently suggest colder the week after with more snow though that's a bit far off.


Appreciate that, cheers @nozawaonsen
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
langball wrote:
Hard to reconcile todays MF snow lines for savioe / chamoinix (1900) with the SLF calling for 1500-1000 in neighboring lower west Valais. WRF has rain until late evening in the west. I guess the temp drops faster in the east, and the storm hits marginally later. Very fine lines once again between joy and despair!


Butterfly wings I suppose.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Timberwolf, all I see is powder - but I've been wrong in the past. From Salzburg Lawine - quite a dramatic change overnight.

Alpine Weather Forecast (ZAMG Salzburg)
Intensifying foehn storm, to start with at 70 km/h in foehn lanes, elsewhere 40 km/h. Later on, intensifying, this afternoon gusts will reach 120 km/h on the Main Alpine Ridge, elsewhere 60-80 km/h. Visibility will be good to start with, later it will deteriorate. The Main Alpine Ridge will get a foehn wall, the Lungau will get low lying clouds. Temperature at 2000m, -1 to +2 degrees; at 3000m, -9 to -3 degrees, colder in the Lungau.

Tonight a cold front will reach us, temperatures drop 10 degrees in just a few hours, about 20 cm of fresh fallen snow will greet us by morning.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, cold, poor visibility, low-lying cloud and fog. Snowfall with intermissions, some bright intervals (30 cm, less in the Nockberge), with winds of 40 km/h from northwest, at 60 km/h on Main Alpine Ridge and in the Lungau. Temperature at 2000m, -10 degrees, at 3000m, -17 degrees.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@waynos, the colder temperatures look likely to get ahead of the snow in the east. Less rain, more snow.
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@davidof, just been chatting to a local guide (There's a couple of slack country lines in powder I'd like to try) and we're postponing to next week, maybe a window Thursday which we'll keep open.

But that's not so much down to avy risk but snow / white out conditions.

Local CAF have no mid week sortie and their FB has Communiqué Spécial Avalanche de Météo-France rédigé le DIMANCHE 7 FÉVRIER 2016 À 16:00 - Forts risques d'avalanches sur les Alpes du Sud - Les risques d'avalanches sont en nette augmentation sur les massifs des Alpes du Sud (risques marqués à forts).

Have to say yesterday lines we skied were not too bad in terms of risk and what slides the pisteurs had set off with blasts were more like sluff, see below.

Weather now has closed in and flocons falling - might have to have another try at the timelapse with different settings.

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@waynos, nice ( I think ) 😀
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@Timberwolf, putting my tabloid head on. As the warm moist med air gets smacked into by the the cold nw we get a powder bomb over ski amade. I've been very wrong many times.see you next week.
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Mountain weather is so localised! There are lots of reports of closed lifts (eg in the Portes du Soleil) because of wind. In Les Saisies, which is not far away, every lift is open (unusual, as there are some drags only opened in peak holiday weeks to relieve lift queues) and every piste - 60/60.

Looking at the web cam it's raining, or at least very damp, at village level and very dreary all over. But at least they can ski. If I were there, with that weather and the lift queues, I'd be tucked up somewhere warm with a nice cake.
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snow line in Les Contamines seems to be about 1400m today - snow levels up the mountain still on a rising trend. Blowing a gale though and several lifts shut for wind. And that is really pretty close to Les Saisies. Resort forecast calls for much lower temperatures later in the week but frankly that looks out of whack with other forecasts so I take it with a pinch of salt.
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The Meteo France forecast p/n levels for the rest of this week seem to have been coming down a bit the last few days, thankfully. Just checked again - the LS lifts are still all open, even two which I know to be susceptible to wind.
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Heavy rain here in annecy.
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A truly awful day in this part of Aravis , we've Just driven down into La clusaz and the rain is torrential , it looks destroyed. It's not much better here in Manigod but it's holding up better then lower down. Fingers crossed the freeze level drops as promised and we should wake up to better conditions for Wednesday.
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Quote:

Fingers crossed the freeze level drops as promised

Seems to be happening - big fat (and no doubt wet) blobs of snow on the Les Saisies webcam now. That's at 1650.
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