Snowfall will set in during the night on the Main Alpine Ridge and southwards therefrom. The snowfall level in those regions will descend down to lower altitudes as the precipitation intensifies, from approximately 1500 m to start with down to low altitudes. During the morning in northern regions, the last bright intervals will still be evident as a result of the foehn-wind scenario. Subsequently, snowfall is expected to set in from the west. To begin with, the precipitation will be as snow above approximately 1500 m; by evening it will snow down to 1000 m.
Fresh snow
Between Saturday evening and Sunday evening, the following amounts of snowfall are anticipated:
- central sector of the southern flank of the Alps, Bergell, Corvatsch: 40 to 60 cm
- remaining parts of the Main Alpine Ridge from the Dent Blanche to the Bernina Pass and in Grisons bordering immediately to the north: 20 to 40 cm
- remaining regions: 10 to 20 cm
Temperature
Temperatures will drop during the course of the day: at midday at 2000 m, to between -4 °C in western and southern regions and 0 °C in eastern regions.
Wind
Winds will be southwesterly, blowing at strong to storm strength at high altitudes and in the foehn-exposed regions during the night.
During the afternoon in western and northern regions, winds will be significantly weaker. In southern and eastern regions at high altitudes, southwesterly winds will be blowing at strong velocity until evening.
Outlook through Tuesday, 9.2.2016
On Sunday night the precipitation will come to an end, including in eastern regions. During the day on Monday, bright intervals are anticipated before in the evening snowfall recommences from the west. On Tuesday, skies will be heavily overcast accompanied by snowfall above approximately 1400 m. It is presumed that most of the snowfall will be in western regions. A strong velocity westerly wind will be blowing in the mountains on both days. The avalanche danger is expected to incrementally diminish in the regions of the south where precipitation has been heaviest. Danger levels could well increase again on Tuesday in the western regions more than anywhere else. In the remaining regions, danger levels are not expected to change significantly. The conditions for backcountry tours in outlying terrain away from secured ski runs will remain treacherous."
At 1350 meters in the Chartreuse mountains this is the location of Meteo France's snow study center and they've been lift served downhill skiing here for 80 years... but for how much longer?
Now school holidays have started the challenge is to find resorts that have no queues and no traffic jams to get to. Not easy when a lot of the local "secret spots" are shut due to lack of snow.
So talking snow, the two automatic monitoring stations state
42cm - Meteo France
65cm - Nivolog
but on the ground, as can be seen in the video, that comes down to quite a few bare patches. The wind from the SW was also blowing pretty strong although we were more or less sheltered down in the trees.
The skiing around here has been trashed by the rain during January. It is ok at altitude but below 1500m very marginal.
That's a cool momandpop resort, but shocking conditions. Looks more like March or April.
Perhaps in a few decades they will become a yearround cycling destination as global warming takes hold.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
something meant to happen today in Sauze.
Waiting with bated breath for live, on the scene reports
I would say yesterday was incredibly hot - but this season it was just run of the mill with the FL over 3000 meters. The "snow eater" wind blew in and did its job, gobbling 10 to 20cm of snow and trashing the fresh powder. It will also have created some big slabs. It is still warm, FL at 2000m but Meteo France assures us the wind will swing round to the N. this PM and bring snow to 800 meters.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@HeidiAmsterdam, been snowing here in Serre since 06:00 must have had all of a couple of cm - hopefully Via Lattea finally getting some.
That's a cool momandpop resort, but shocking conditions. Looks more like March or April.
Perhaps in a few decades they will become a yearround cycling destination as global warming takes hold.
That was the best of the snow - if I filmed the rest people wouldn't believe it.
Funny you mention cycling. Two guys had cycled up with their ski gear yesterday. It used to be traditional for the col de Porte in the 1930s and post war for people to cycle or even walk up from Grenoble - although how they made it up with heavy bikes I don't know.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@davidof, I though they'd shut down Col de Porte completely and now was only for x-country - are the lifts still running then ?
Skied there a few times but probably skied St Pierre more as closer to my brothers, that's a cute station.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Snow-forecast using the 06z run this morning is showing 376cm of snow @ 2264m on the 9 day outlook for Argentiere. La Grave is showing similarly high numbers. That run must be quite an outlier, but it shows there is potential for a lot of snowfall over the next week or two.
Last edited by After all it is free on Sun 7-02-16 11:49; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
@musehead, one things for sure.. there is a LOT of weather to come. All models showing huge snow, just at different timings / temps. YR.no.. meteoblue (i trust the most) and snow-forecast (la la land totals) all looking nice ! Can't wait for the road trip adventure on Thursday / Friday.. so glad I'm arriving friday away from the silly traffic.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@musehead, not sure where you are refering to but Snowforecast will not update to the 06z for several hours it will still be using the 00z GFS data. The op run wasn't that much of an outlier till later in that run.
@Alex A, meteoblue is using the same GFS data as Snowforecast, although the way they present it gives more of an indication of the uncertainties.
The free to access part of Snowforecast is fine for what it does, which is present a huge amount of data across a lot of resorts in an easy to understadn way. But that ease of use comes at the cost of simplifying the information to a point where it can come to suggest more certainty in an outcome that is justified.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Some cold and unsettled charts at the far end of ECM 00z this morning.
06z GFS also suggesting unsettled weather in the Alps through to the end of it's (longer) run, though takes a different route.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Heavy snow at 1000 m, wind swung round to the North about 30 minutes ago with a sudden drop in temperature and some violent gusts as N and S fought for dominance. N. won.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, How long does snow-forecast typically take to update its data to the latest run? The whole GFS 06z had been released by around 10:30 and the ensembles soon after so I assumed snow-forecast would have been on the 06z by then (it's still on the same data now as of 11:45).
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@musehead, no it lags by a couple of hours. Different forecasting sights update at different times. This can sometimes make people think they are seeing different base data, but it's far more often to do with when they update.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Weathercam wrote:
@HeidiAmsterdam, been snowing here in Serre since 06:00 must have had all of a couple of cm - hopefully Via Lattea finally getting some.
Great.
Depending on conditions, we may spend a day in Serre - we can have a coffee - of make a few runs. My kids are excellent skiers, I used to be an excellent skier, now I am middle-aged and only get a few weeks a year.
I should be exercising every day and aiming for the Jane Fonda at 50 look, but just not feelin' it.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
musehead wrote:
@nozawaonsen, How long does snow-forecast typically take to update its data to the latest run? The whole GFS 06z had been released by around 10:30 and the ensembles soon after so I assumed snow-forecast would have been on the 06z by then (it's still on the same data now as of 11:45).
I think it does it every 6 hours; 6am GMT onwards. Skiclub uses the snowforecast data and is usually an hour or so later.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@HeidiAmsterdam Nothing like some fresh powder to get you motivated to get after it. Amazing what lots of snow can do for your mindset!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I have the same colour kit, so I'm gonna say that's me!
So bit of experimenting with time lapse functionality on new camera, think would have been much better if the snow fall had been heavier - settings were a shot every two minutes up to a maximum of 200 and battery ran out after 192 images. So next time will try a longer time interval and hope snow fall is more dramatic.
At least you can see the birds making the most of the feed I put out for them.
@zzz, not sure that will be the case. It might be a bit windy for birds, bu the snow line will be fluctating a lot.
So Tuesday looks like you might start with ducks, but overnight temperatures drop fast and they will become penguins (it would be quite something to catch this on camera).
Again Thursday. It starts off ducks. But by the end of the day and into Friday it all goes penguins.
During the night, the snowfall will round to a close, including in eastern regions. During the daytime it will be quite sunny to begin with, excluding high altitude cloudbanks. During the afternoon, dense cloud cover will move in from the west and a few centimeters of snowfall is anticipated above approximately 1400 m.
Fresh snow
Between Sunday evening and Monday evening, the following amounts of new fallen snow are anticipated:
- Grisons, central sector of the southern flank of the Alps: 5 to 15 cm; in the Bernina region, up to 25 cm of fresh fallen snow is possible
- northern flank of the Alps, Lower Valais: only a few centimeters
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, between -1 °C in western and southern regions and +1 °C in eastern regions.
Wind
In northern regions, winds will be westerly, blowing at strong to storm strength. In southern regions, winds will be blowing at moderate strength, but stronger at high altitudes.
Outlook through Wednesday, 10.2.2016
On Tuesday, snowfall is anticipated, most of which will fall in the western regions. Along the French border, as much as 50 cm of fresh fallen snow is possible. On Wednesday, the precipitation will come to an end, including in northern regions, and some bright intervals can be expected. In southern regions it will be quite sunny on Wednesday. The snowfall level on Tuesday will be approximately 1400 m, subsequently descend on Tuesday down to low lying areas. Winds will continue to blow at strong velocity, on Tuesday from westerly directions to start with, then shifting on Wednesday to northwesterly. Temperatures are expected to drop markedly. The avalanche danger will increase in northern regions on Tuesday to a striking degree, particularly so in the western regions. In southern regions the avalanche danger will incrementally diminish on both days."
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Weathercam wrote:
@davidof, I though they'd shut down Col de Porte completely
They have a brand new piste basher this year
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@Weathercam,
Quote:
So next time will try a longer time interval and hope snow fall is more dramatic.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, thanks for message re wind. Was interesting today in Cham the uge gusts forecast didn't seem to materialise quite so badly - hope it's a running theme. Completely appreciate the point around exposed as it undulates massively especially in a big mountain report
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Here's to penguins. Let's hope it's not so windy that they're flying!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
A week or two ago there was some talk about a 'Sudden Stratospheric Warming' event, and that it might take a couple of weeks to manifest itself - any indication that a SSW is in progress?
IIRC a SSW could break the prevailing flow of westerly air and allow much colder air in from the east. It would be great if all the precipitation forecast for this week could be preserved by a couple of weeks of low temps!
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@tomj, as I mentioned last week although there is stratospheric warming going on right now it's currently looking less likely to be enough to tip things over. It'll weaken the vortex, but not enough to really damage it.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Thanks @nozawaonsen, this thread has to be one of the most interesting things on the web.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Here's AER's take.
"February 2, 2016
Summary
The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive but is predicted to trend first negative and then positive again.
The positive AO reversal is reflective of negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies over the European side of the Arctic basin and positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic sector. This has resulted in a very mild weather pattern both across the Eastern United States and Europe.
The return to a positive AO atmospheric state is consistent with very active vertical atmospheric energy transfer that began the third week of January and is predicted to continue through at least mid-February.
The very active atmospheric energy transfer initiated a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that began the third week of January and is predicted to climax the second week of February with record warm temperatures in the polar stratosphere. This is a significant disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex that will result in a negative stratospheric AO and typically the tropospheric AO follows the stratosphere’s AO trend with some lag.
The perturbation of the polar vortex is likely to dominate the evolution of the temperature variability across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the duration of winter. The evolving SSW should favor for the latter half of February and into March a negative AO, and relatively cold temperatures for the NH mid-latitude continents. Initially the SSW is resulting in ridging across western North America, which should initiate the return of cross-polar flow and colder temperatures to the Eastern United States next week.
A return to colder temperatures across Western Europe is less certain as the position of the PV favors strong westerly flow of maritime air into Europe, which would inhibit a turn to cold temperatures not only for Europe but Western Asia as well. It is our opinion that a split in the PV would most likely favor a turn to colder temperatures for Europe, however for now, the weather models do not predict this outcome."
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
See it's bonkers windy back in the UK - this is from the weather station on my house (Worthing West Sussex) on the beach, so wind is full on!
Current Weather at : 13:47
Date 08/02/16
Wind WSW at 49.0 mph
5 min average top wind speed: 53.0
10 min average top wind speed: 56.0
Highest Gust past 24hrs: 56.0 at 13:17
Wind Chill: 2.8 °C
Pressure: 988.6 Rising Slowly
Temperature: 9.3 °C
And meantime here in Serre, a very good morning was had
More pics in the Serre thread.
Now clouding over, hopefully signalling the next batch of snow.
In a windy week tomorrow afternoon is currently looking particularly windy across much of the Alps.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Pretty warm this morning (13C at lunchtime north of Grenoble) and the overnight powder was already hanging heavy on the ground. In the Isere still difficult to ski under 1500m - the rain a week ago really did a huge amount of damage. Weather has clouded over again with a few flakes but the FL is around 1900/2000 meters.
Arrived in Annecy to kite surfers on the lake. Wind now dropped and clouds rolling in but it warmed up a fair bit since this morning.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Currently in La Bourboule near Mont Dore in the Massif Central. Very windy and wet, was about 4 degrees at 1264m as we drove over Col de Guery. Very little snow about about this height too - I think there is supposed to be ski de fond here? Weather looks to continue like this until Wednesday so will not be attempting skiing before then!
After all it is free
After all it is free
@driz, Seems to be enough snow higher up according to the webcams but the Sancy can be massively affected by the wind and there aren't many protective trees on the Mont Dore side. Super Besse may be your best bet until the wind dies down.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
There's been a few runs recently which see high pressure starting to reassert itself over the Alps from 15/16 February. 12z GFS op run goes for that. Too early to tell but certainly a reasonable possibility.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
nozawaonsen wrote:
There's been a few runs recently which see high pressure starting to reassert itself over the Alps from 15/16 February. 12z GFS op run goes for that. Too early to tell but certainly a reasonable possibility.
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Poster: A snowHead
