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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead


The next week or so looks generally mild. But GFS continues to suggest the first week of February is likely to be cooler than the last week of January in the Alps and more unsettled at least in the eastern Alps with some fresh snow looking possible on 31 Jan - 01 Feb and 02-03 Feb.

That said as Davidof flagged up a couple of days ago this Thurs into Friday looks like seeing some fresh snow in parts of th northern Alps. This is in fact the battered remenants of the storm that has just hit the US East Coast, but it arrives in Europe a much diminished version of itself having made its way across the Atlantic.

Lech



Chamonix



Further east looks colder still in FI.

Borovets



And ECM is also picking up on the idea of a switch to colder conditions at the start of February.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
hope the early feb holds out for the Dolomites, it will need at least a few CM's to make it decent to look at. Trust artificial snow keeps the pistes decent. All reports so far suggest so.
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@twoodwar, southern side of the Alps still looking pretty dry, but cooling through the run.

Val Gardena

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@Weathercam, persona non grata is putting it too strong. You're someone we love to hate, but really love.

To be fair, you have a very readable style of writing, and you gather a lot of useful information, if prone to a little overstatement and panic (e.g. if it looks like SC won't be dumped after all)

Would you consider a blog-style thread in the off piste section, something similar to Steve Angus? I seriously reckon a lot of SHs (including me) would follow it avidly
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This is how WRF sees the snowfall (primarily focussed in the northern Alps) over the next five days (a few cms in Salzburgerland overnight, but otherwise all of it on Thursday into Friday).



Quite wet in the west of the UK as well.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@peanuthead, anyone who wants to read weathercam's blog has only to follow the link in his signature.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nosawaonsen, thanks for the chart snowHead
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@pam w, oh yeah you're right. I followed it before but couldn't hack it. Maybe I was wrong..
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@pam w, oh yeah you're right. I followed it before but couldn't hack it. Maybe I was wrong..
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Yeah, maybe, @peanuthead,......
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@peanuthead, I've just seen that a response I made a few pages back about how to make the most of the warmer weather in terms of skiing the right slope and at the right time of day, which @nozawaonsen, thought was sound information has been deleted, why?

nozawaonsen wrote:
@Weathercam,
And that's solid advice about figuring out which slopes face the sun and heading there first. That'll become more important as the season moves on and into spring.


I know @Hurtle, was confused in that he thought I was only concentrating on Serre when in fact it was general detail for most Alpine resorts as the Iso is going to be over 3,000m - who is the mod that deleted that and what was the reasoning?

Just that it holds true and I was going to do a follow up to it after temps today hit +29 in the direct sunlight and 13.5 in the shade, and was carrying out a little field research on a bit of slope by us throughout today on angle of sun on aspect and degree of slope and timings, as the actual time the snow transforms now in Jan is way later than you'd see in March and April as the sun is lower.

For instance at 1400m was +1.5 at 11.00am and S facing slopes were only just starting to go by 14.00 temps were +5 and SW facing were just right.

So will be interesting to see what happens overnight as Iso is due to be around 3,000 for here and other resorts that said as at 17:35 local time thermometer is reading +0.3

Basically it means that we can start a good three hours later than we would expect to in true Spring.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Weathercam, that's a good point.



It's the same reason that you sometimes find (more often in spring) snow on south facing slopes has melted, but snow lower down on the flat valley floor has not (and also helps the grapes on the slopes get lots of lovely sunshine).
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Looking at 12z GFS snow into the northern Alps on Thursday/Friday night looks relatively light.

Followed by more snowfall on Sunday into Monday in the northern Alps (although the snowline doesn't look that low at present).

Out in FI a cold and snowy first week of February.



But that's still FI for now.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looks like Spring is not far off.

Some of the lower Alpine resorts may get rain at times at resort-level through early February.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I'm an avid reader of this thread and can't say I've noticed Weathercam's posts being over intrusive. Usually find them quite interestingand germaine to the thread. No need for the abuse.
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twoodwar wrote:
hope the early feb holds out for the Dolomites, it will need at least a few CM's to make it decent to look at. Trust artificial snow keeps the pistes decent. All reports so far suggest so.


Still decent to look at - great pics in this link from a recent Alpinforum report on Seiseralm

http://www.alpinforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=54964
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
twoodwar wrote:
hope the early feb holds out for the Dolomites, it will need at least a few CM's to make it decent to look at. Trust artificial snow keeps the pistes decent. All reports so far suggest so.


Still decent to look at - great pics in this link from a recent Alpinforum report on Seiseralm

http://www.alpinforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=54964
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~gosh.

that was winter I guess....

humpf.
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It's still January, plenty of time for more cold and snow.
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@HeidiAmsterdam, ???
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@snowheads68, to be quite honest as long as he isn't telling everyone that they are talking "bollox" and coming on a weather thread to say forecasting the weather is pointless, deliberately misquoting people or just posting links to his website then I don't particularly mind what he posts.

EDIT: and Weathercam's recent posts have raised some interesting points (and he can take a mean photo). Very Happy


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sun 24-01-16 20:39; edited 1 time in total
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Talk of Spring in Jan !!!

It's all a bit doom and gloom on here these days , there's loads of winter left
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@Rob Mackley, agreed. All a bit odd. We've just come out of an extended cold spell and there's more cold on the horizon. Think someone is stirring.
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Les Arcs today most definitely fitted the profile of a spring skiing day than what I would consider a more "normal" January day. Firm, refrozen snow in the morning softening in the sun to near slush in the afternoon, with mild temperatures up to about 7 degrees or so at 1600m. Didn't quite turn to corn.

That said, it's still January in a tricky snow year so to call it spring already is nonsense. Give a week or two and we will most certainly have had summer, autumn and back to winter again. Taking nothing away from Nozawaonsen's and others excellent interpretative and explanatory posts, I will stand by that forecast. Very Happy
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Good support from the control for an spell of colder than average for winter tempetaures coming up in early February (04/05). That would not feel very spring like at all if it happened.

Lech



Chamonix



Still dry in the south...
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
All we're actually talking about is adapting to spring like conditions over the next few days (if you happen to be in the mountains), anything more than a few days out........ I'd better not go there, but I'm planning on being out till end of April.......... Toofy Grin
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
pjd wrote:
twoodwar wrote:
hope the early feb holds out for the Dolomites, it will need at least a few CM's to make it decent to look at. Trust artificial snow keeps the pistes decent. All reports so far suggest so.


Still decent to look at - great pics in this link from a recent Alpinforum report on Seiseralm

http://www.alpinforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=48&t=54964


I know it's not the thread for it but I can't believe how empty it is there, shocking.


On topic I am very glad that the forecasts for next week (I know a lot can change) seem to be suggesting colder weather and even some snow, I would very much like that.

Regarding those graphs which are starting to make a little more sense to me, is there one for Les Arcs or is the nearest one for Chamonix?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Minion1980, here you go.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.6&lon=6.8

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Thank you very very much Noza, I'll save that link now. It is certainly looking a bit more promising.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
There's nothing unusual about a warm few days in January or February. if temperature wasn't sometimes above average it wouldn't be below the average sometimes (like last week) would it?
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@nozawaonsen,
What's your thoughts on the predictions for the west Pyrenees into feb. we like most have been warm the last few days. The forecast with meteo France seems to change everyday at the moment.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 25-01-16 9:00; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
pam w wrote:
if temperature wasn't sometimes above average it wouldn't be below the average sometimes (like last week) would it?


Future temperatures can do whatever they like. Imagine we plummet into a new Ice Age, starting in early Feb, then the averages will just follow the actual temps lower. Mathematically there is no guarantee that we would ever go above average (as long as temps keep falling / flatline).

Anyway, conditions were formidable in PdS this week. Powder turned to crunch after wed night light rain /refreeze, but stunning few days of blue sky after that. Insane how busy weekends have become. Last 2 have been like mid term, big queues in the bowls, and couldn't get a restaurant on sat night in LG. Will put up a video in PdS thread later.
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@nozawaonsen, @Weathercam, @davidof, and all other weather watchers! What say you to the weather in Val Thorens from Sunday 31.01?
I've had messages from my brother this morning predicting gales, whiteouts and general misery!
I fear he is just panicking and relying on hack forecasts!
I can see some squiggles but nothing terrifying... I turn to you all.
*bows*


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Mon 25-01-16 9:51; edited 1 time in total
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letsgetpiste wrote:
[@davidof, and all other weather watchers! What say you to the weather in Val Thorens from Sunday 30.01?
I've had messages from my brother this morning predicting gales, whiteouts and general misery!


Well I'm not a forecaster. I am more concerned with current conditions and what the forecasts say. However on the Grenoble resorts thread I advised the poster to go to a resort with tree-lined skiing on Sunday (and to wear a raincoat Happy so I probably share your brother's concerns as much as you can see that far ahead.
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davidof wrote:
So I probably share your brother's concerns as much as you can see that far ahead.


I know things can change dramatically over the week. Thats I've been hanging back and mainly watching and hoping...
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@letsgetpiste, Bergfex are showing strong winds and heavy snow. However, still too far off to have any real confidence in it.

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@letsgetpiste, temperatures look quite low as the weather comes in on Sunday. You certainly won't need a raincoat in Val Thorens (or indeed in most places in the Alps) if that is right, though it could be windy.



That said it has been shifting back and forth.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen, @Gaza, & @davidof, I'll just keep watching to see how it develops!
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So looking at those charts, I am flying out to Les Gets next Tuesday morning and looking at the potential of some very cold weather. To be hones that is how I like it, there is nothing better than it being cold so you can really enjoy those nice open fires after you have had a full on day. I don't mind the spring weather, in fact I always go the second week of Easter with the family and I enjoy the ice in the morning, the nice afternoons and then slush at the end of the day on my board. It actually really works well on a board and then the family enjoy the better weather too..win win I reckon. However when I go in Feb with the lads I want it to be cold, I want it to be minus something silly at night so it feels like a ski holiday but I won't be bent out of shape either way.
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